一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Euro right now on a push above 1.48.......
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hefeiddd

And here is the cable. Looks like 5th wave is unfolding.......
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hefeiddd

Serhito,

I don't have a clear count on daily but here is 4h. I still think we might push for a new low to complete a larger wave 1 or A before a retrace in wave 2 or B.
Of course the alternative count is Jamie's where wave 1 or A is now complete and we are in three wave correction.

Anyways at the moment I favour a short position in cable due to fact its near completion of the ending triangle.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usdjpy
Lets have a look at the long term picture for USDJPY......
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hefeiddd

For today....I think it reasonable to take a small short cable position -- with the ability to add to it later. We should see 1.96/1.97 by next week
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hefeiddd

I see the top at 2.1170 as a "b" wave in a 3-3-5 correction. Therefore my count looks bullish right now. Do you see anything wrong with this scenario ?Attached Images

hefeiddd

Serhito,
Sorry bud. I just don't see how you could count that wave 3 as a 3. The pair has been making overlapping waves since April of 2006. Is that a common characteristic for a wave 3? Overlaps suggest a correction. We are finally starting an impulse down and today may very well end up being the end of wave 4 down. I see us making new lows as well as I illustrated on post 3317. Here is my chart yet again.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Audcad
Update... No upside really... But no downside either... Still waiting for a move higher....
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hefeiddd

Eurnzd I think we're going lower in EURNZD as part of a triangle ..... The Long Term trend is unclear at the moment... We could be in a bear market still, or we could have switched to a bull market... If we have switched to a bull market.. We have only touched the new rising trendline 2 times since the bottom. I believe we are due for atleast one more touch before that trend line becomes valid support ...
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hefeiddd

IF the EURUSD is in a triangle, then we just saw the high of the week for the EURUSD. This means that wave D lower is underway now and into next week. The more bullish count means that the EURUSD just blows by everything in the next few days but I favor the triangle.Attached Images

hefeiddd

EURNZD could rally higher still, and test the resistance line again... but I believe the next big move is to the down side.... I think it was Jaime that wrote the bullish article on this pair... And I think he may be too early.... That down trend line on the top side has been in affect for years... Do not question the strength of that line... Price should bounce back and fourth between two contracting lines before it is forced in a certain direction, price has only hit the bottom rising line twice... We should have atleast three points for a valid trend line.. Attached Images

hefeiddd

update on aud-cad, chart 15':








Gbpchf
I need some opinions on GBPCHF people.... This count that I find myself with has the long term wave 4 past the Top of wave 3.... Is it possible a market can be so bearish that the wave pattern can be distorted like this ?? Have a look at the chart... anyone and everyone.. Lets hear any thoughts...
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hefeiddd

AUDCAD just penetrated .8800 .. My 1,2,3,4 count is no longer valid for an impulsive count. However... Price may be still tracing out 5 waves with 1 and 4 overlapping in a corrective move.. I was stopped out on the breach of .8800 .. I will watch how price plays out from here....Attached Images

hefeiddd

Attention Jaime: GBPJPY
Hi Jaime... I need your opinion on this count for GBPJPY... I feel by looking at the monthly chart of USDJPY and GBPJPY, I can't help but notice a strong down trend with similar characteristics in both pairs... I think both are headed for huge new lows in coming months and years, and have both just started a large wave 5 down.. but something is bothering me here... When I look at the Daily chart of GBPJPY I notice that the move down from the 250.00 area last year to the low at 219.00 has a corrective ABC look... This is really throwing a wrench in my long term forecast .. I still believe the long term count I post here is correct.. I am wondering is there a way that the price action since 250.00 can be enterpreted as a new impulse downward ?? I don't think there is really.. But just thought I'd see what you think about it.. The only thing that I can think of is... If this is a huge wave 5 down... Is it a possibility that it has taken a 3-3-3-3-3 look so early in the down trend ?? Is that ABC move from 250.00 to 219.00 actually a wave 1 somehow ?? ... I have confidence in the long term forecast for a drop below 128.33 ... It's the short term in this pair that is confusing.... little help plzzz
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hefeiddd

Gbpjpy
This is what I count from the top down for gbpjpy.... But it doesn't count like it should for it to be impulsive.... But I still find myself looking for a huge decline.... It couldn't just be a nice 5 wave decline ... We got left with a mess to deal with here... Decisions, Decisions...
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hefeiddd

Gbpjpy
The MACD shows us a lot of downside pressure right now on the monthly ... I would not expect that too slow for a long while....
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hefeiddd

Because my impulsive count was voided... I am willing to give it more time to form the bottom... If it wants to... I have another possibility here just from looking at it....... The trend line on the bottom side should provide good support too if we get there.... I'm lost for a decent count at the moment.. needs more time... for me anyway...Attached Images

hefeiddd

From a trading perspective, we need to look at the short term charts. Here is a 240 min bar chart. My assumption now is that we work higher (217) before making a run below 200 to test the objective at 190. Whether or not that means we go to 207 first does not concern me. All I know is that the former 4th wave is at 217.31 and that any countertrend rally is likely to end near there. The longer term trend is down and that is a good point to sell. Keep it simple.Attached Images

hefeiddd

It could be...the one thing that has me leaning towards a USD bull argument though is the EURUSD reversing yesterday right at the triangle line. This tells me that wave e of the triangle needs to play out before the next USD bear leg...and wave e should make it to 1.4600 at least.

Take a look at the NZDUSD as well....it looks like a 5 down from .7913 to .7751 and the rally from .7751 is a clear 3 (to this point). Risk is low and I my target is between .7450 and .7550Attached Images

hefeiddd

Now isn't it just my luck I got stoped out of this right before it took off.... Grrrrr... I hate when that happens... I should have left a little more space on my stop Now isn't that a piss off... lolAttached Images