一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Usdchf
UsdChf moved a little lower today, but found support once again at the 78.6 level... It looks like the C Wave Bottom This Time... We're now above the down trend line I'm still long from yesterday Good call on the candle yesterday Serhito.... I would not be surprised at all still too see a move down towards 1.0840 ish still for a double bottom, but it does look pretty good right now for longs.
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hefeiddd

Usdcad
Deffinately opportunity in USDCAD.... The 123.6 fib forced a rejection, which makes me think it was "B" wave that just finished so I think we are probably headed down in wave "C" below .9755
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hefeiddd

EurJpy Looks To Bounce
I posted a previously when this pair crossed the up trend line looking for a downward breakout or a bounce upward... It looks like we're getting the bounce upward.. So for now I would expect a triangle to play out.
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hefeiddd

so do you think that is a corect counting ??


I am waiting for the end of wave B to go short, do you think that this is the right time ??

Do you think that the best thing is to wait for wave e ??Attached Images

hefeiddd

so do u thing that we should wait for wave D to complete in order to short it for wave E ??

do u think that the wave D will be 0.618*wave C ?? or will it touch the upper line instead ??Attached Images

hefeiddd

I think we should wait for wave E

I think 0.8800 should be a good entry point sine it is the 100% of wave D projection, a psychological support level, and the top of wave 1Attached Images

hefeiddd

CORRECT Friend .... AND IF ANYONE EVER TELLS YOU THEY ARE 100% ON ANYTHING IN THIS MARKET THEY ARE FULL OF SH*T ... FOREX IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN MARKET AROUND IF YOU ASK ME...... There are only probabilities... With the hammer on the weekly in November ( I pay attention to longer term more as it is more reliable ) .. I do believe a multi year low is in place... but I think there will be better opportunity to wait right now for a chance to buy much lower or atleast a little lower.... I'm keeping my eyes peeled for the buy in USDCAD.... when I do see it.... It will be posted here.... But we also do have to consider that we have missed the ride... perhaps it is in a large wave 3 up right now already... This is where Wave Analysis helps to keep you out of possible bad trades.. you wouldnt want to short in a wave 3... So you just wait for the wave count to play out long enough that you can see what is going on before you jump in.... patience is the key to success Attached Images

hefeiddd

Correct ..I am not sure of the count yet... But I think a multi year low may have occoured in November... It's just too early to tell yet.... There are only probabilities in trading... If anyone ever tells you they are 100% on something in this market, they are full of SH*T..... If you ask me the forex market is the most uncertain market around. I am looking to get long USDCAD if we can get above the down trend line.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Those lines you have drawn on your chart are lines of common sense In Chart Form .... If we start going back up in EURJPY I will be watching for a three wave rally to complete wave "D" of this triangle... The waves since the multi year highs seem to be in three wave form, suggesting a possibile triangle. But the market will still do what it wants... With the market in general "tanking", I would not be surprised to see EURJPY blast downward too.. The bounce we have just encountered may be nothing more than just a bounce in a downtrend... You have to consider each possible outcome before you trade, I can guarantee you there is plenty of risk to go around in the market... things are at an uncertain juncture in many markets... Have Patience and get confirmation with each trade you put on and I can guarantee your account balance will reflect it ..... I like a saying I know... Trade Smart , Not Often .. Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here's a look at AUDCAD
AUDCAD looks like it just completed a wave 4 correction.... Should be heading up in wave 5 now ...
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hefeiddd

Could get a move down in AUDNZD
AUDNZD has yet to come down to it's long term support line... Plus the downward reversal we just had seemed too far and too fast... Plus the pair has failed to vault higher... I would favour a move down to the support line to get long.
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hefeiddd

I'm not too sure about the count you provided... I think the decline is done now... There is a rising window and a bullish engulfing pattern at the bottom, Good buy signals! Wave 4 cannot go any lower if it is to remain a wave 4... Wave 4 can't enter Wave 1 Territory here.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Pay attention to the daily chart friend... it is so much more reliable.... I wish you luck on that trade although I'm skeptical about any long here right now, You've got some big cahoneez buying here bud... lolAttached Images

hefeiddd

Usdcad
I went long for the USD/CAD on my way to wave E, hopefully

looks like that the pair are forming a double bottom on a 30-min. chart
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hefeiddd

Usd/cad
Here we go, just a follow on my earlier post, it looks like the rising wedge came to be, and the break through the lower line opened up the downside, and ended a significant short term wave. Although I have it marked as the end of a 3rd wave, my gut tells me that it could be the end of a 5th but for now, I'll stick with this count. The sell off so far has traced out a nice 5-3-5 (a-b-c). Instead of picking bottoms here, I'd wait for what resembles a 1st wave higher before jumping back in on the long side. Comments welcome.
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Sorry, just a correction of my earlier post, the 5-3-5 was for each of the zigzags....the overall formation I have is a double zigzag so far (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) with it currently being in the last "C" wave of the second zigzag, and within what looks like an incomplete 5 wave structure. So the story doesn't change from above, let this play out (I think around 1.0055), and buy when it looks like we've got a complete wave 1 of the last push higher. (5 min chart attached)
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-30 15:51 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I just wanted to post a different count to show that even an alternate favors a MAJOR top. If any of you read Prechter's Theorist then you will notice this trendline....a 25 year trendline that is breaking now. View the stock market rally as a correction in a larger bear market. So to answer the question about how deep the correction could be?? It could be the beginning of a bear market that only those old enough to remember the great depression have seen before.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi There Whatcount... Have a look at EURGBP on the monthly chart... I think we are in a larger wave 3 up still, I think it will penetrate the upper resistance line I have drawn off the highs from 1995, price seems to have a lot of upside momentum currently. RSI has broken out of a long term triangle to the up side, aswell MACD has thrust higher from zero with a nice Arc but is coming into its own resistance line if it holds, which I don't think it will, It looks like there is too much upside momentum right now. However, do be careful of a reversal near the resistance line... You just never know... Once we get a close above the resistance line I will be a bit more bullish.... Oscillators on the monthly are showing huge up side momentum right now... I would not be looking to exit any longs in EURGBP just yet..... Hope that helps friend.... Attached Images

hefeiddd

usdcad
Because the 123.6 fib forced a rejection, I believe we just finished a "B" wave and started a "C" wave down.... I'm looking for a buy anywhere down near the bottom for a move higher... Right now USDCAD looks pretty bearish.. Price is coming under the uptrend line as I'm typing this... I actually wouldn't be surprised to see price pushed all the way back down towards the multi year lows in wave "C" for a good buy opportunity. Surely I would think we can get a large double bottom after such a thrusting multi year downtrend.

I think this count will play out, but that doesn't mean it will ... We all make our own trading decisions. This is just food for thought ...
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hefeiddd

I see what you mean with respect to that formation possibly forming right now...if the pattern does form, then we would get a drop fairly soon that comes back below 106. Under the count that I am showing here (and I showed this morning in the techs), price would need to eventually exceed 107.92 in order to complete a second wave as an expanded flat. Still, I am looking to sell every bounce...even if it I do think an expanded flat is unfolding because a more outcome remains possible as long as price is below 107.37.Attached Images

hefeiddd

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