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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:21 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/cad
Not sure if I was right about my rising wedge on this one, but looks like we accelerated through the bottom of the wedge in a nice 5 wave pattern (to conclude wave 1 with an extended fifth).

I sold the initial break (a bit of a head fake)....It looks like we are in wave 3 here (possibly just finished), either way, I would be adding to the short if we see the 1.0260-75 area again with the expectation that we still have a fifth wave (of a third wave) and a full larger fifth lower to go (possibly to 1.0125, which is my placement of the fouth wave low of the recent run higher).

I know I'm splitting hairs with the 5 Min charts, but I like the clarity, and the intraday opportunities in addition to the larger views. Comments welcome.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:22 | 显示全部楼层
Jamie could you tell me with rules of EW why wave a(blue) end around 1.4820,thanksAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:23 | 显示全部楼层
AUD/NZD getting ready for a III of 3?
For those bullish Aud/NZD, this might be an interesting entry point with low risk high reward.
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Wave V on the way?
Hey guys Eur/Jpy just did a sharp decline form 156. Can this be the start of the final wave v before a large rally?
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:24 | 显示全部楼层
Hi Market,i am with this chart but wave c count in details is really hard for me,anybody can count wave c in h4 or h1Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:25 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/cad
Just an update on my chart yesterday, got stopped on the move higher to 1.0308.....changing my short term count to a zigzag downward. The question here is if yesterday's lows hold, we might have seen the lows for now, and look for opportunities to buy USD/CAD. For now, I'm calling the late move higher yesterday as a wave one (not marked on the chart), a move below 1.0205 changes that count.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
Us Dollar
////////////////

The true Benchmark -
and what the world is watching in the name of intrest rates cuts
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:32 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/Usd

Chart Update ...:
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:46 | 显示全部楼层
I got the same counting

By the way, I was stoped out yesterday when I shorted this pair but with no loss or gain Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 10:06 | 显示全部楼层
USDCHF Text Book BUY SIGNAL !
USDCHF appears to have put in a five wave rally and a three wave decline that is beind propped by the 61.8 support level. Looks like we're do for a rally higher in a "C" wave or a Wave 3.... Price is ripe for a long right now Target it is above 1.1121 ... TBD
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/cad
Just an update on my chart yesterday, got stopped on the move higher to 1.0308.....changing my short term count to a zigzag downward. The question here is if yesterday's lows hold, we might have seen the lows for now, and look for opportunities to buy USD/CAD. For now, I'm calling the late move higher yesterday as a wave one (not marked on the chart), a move below 1.0205 changes that count.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 10:15 | 显示全部楼层
hi all I agree with Jamie,i have just two reason for triangle now first we have zigzags waves for wave A,B,C (D in process) and each wave is smaller than previous wave,in triangle all waves are zigzag just one of them especially wave c can be complex so wave c was zigzag so wave d can be falat as i imagin......
happy trading
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 10:16 | 显示全部楼层
Still my count until price say otherwise and I still don't for see a new top. Although, I do see the triangle potential I'm still not jumping on board for now.
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Mean while, Aud/NZD is giving us so many opportunities to get in long!
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 10:18 | 显示全部楼层
Humblepie, I wouldn't be quick to jump on that ship regarding Yen. Yes, Yen is way overbought but wave count suggests we may get very sharp decline. Yesterday's rally had a wave 2 feel to it, not a wave 4. Be careful.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 10:19 | 显示全部楼层
Hey guys,
Earlier I posted a possible count for the Eur Jpy and stated yesterdays rally had the feel of a wave 2 and not 4.
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...postcount=3096

However, another possible count is that wave IV is still playing out and may take the form of a triangle which would explain the wild swings in the markets in the last couple of day. Could also be playing out as a running flat so a new low is possible.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 10:20 | 显示全部楼层
Hey Serhito,
That's the million dollar question isn't it? This correction may be just the beginning of something huge...something noone has ever seen before. Even the 1929 crash was only a wave 2. If this chart is the case, we could go down to below wave A extreme without even blinking in a wave 3 of C. Here is the doom and gloom scenario we've all heard about the last year or so. We definitely have the circumstances given all he bad credit floating around.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 11:42 | 显示全部楼层
Fibonacci Clusters at work

Price now reacting to the projected resistance levels

9640 - held as resistance line
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 11:45 | 显示全部楼层
Eur/Usd


Here's a look at the Euro ..........

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 11:46 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/Yen

Here is a wave-count -

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 11:46 | 显示全部楼层
Anyone else thinks the pound is going higher to min 1.9771 target ? Or more likely 1.9961 which is also the top of the 4H down channel.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 11:47 | 显示全部楼层
I still have no idea where you see a head and shoulders. Anyway, the triangle is a little over half way complete. As I mentioned earlier, look for a rally to test 1.4740 to complete wave d, then a decline in wave e (probably toa boput 1.4500).Attached Images
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