一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Ok, here's the hourly....I noticed a little problem with my "4th of a 3rd" comment, 'cause there seems to be some overlap on my 1st and 4th waves on the daily, but this hourly chart is pretty clear for the start of a new wave lower from 95.40/50. I'll try to hammer out the chart on the dailies later if I can. Comments welcome.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Gbp/jpy has got looks to be in wave iv of 3 down (yellow). Im looking to catch the big move lower. Heres my count so far. We've retraced 38.2% of wave and the it reversed quited sharply since. Question is :is c of iv over?
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Heres where EW comes in and why theres nothing like it in he world. This is a close up of wave iv of C. Pattern suggests one more high before a drop to new lows. If this is the case, Im looking for a move to 215 before wave C is all said and done.



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hefeiddd

Adrian, Patients is a virtue when it come to trading. The turn up may be just about to happen if this count is right. We've retraced 38.2 % of wave iii of C. I'm still now looking for a move to 215.
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hefeiddd

I think 210. 70 will be a good entry ??Attached Images

hefeiddd

Now , Weak for the weekend huh ? ......Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gbpjpy
Looks like gbpjpy has run into channel resistance on the bottom side... Price will probably rally up inside the channel before heading for a new low.... Not certain on a count for this pair yet either... But my longer term outlook has this pair heading for a major drop.... I will be watching for a corrective rally to the upside to get short
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hefeiddd

Usdcad
Here's a look at the USDCAD weekly chart after the close this week... Looks like were left with a bearish candle signal going into next week.

I am hoping this count will play out and confirm a multi year reversal...
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hefeiddd

EURCAD looks to have huge upside potential if we can get above the down trend line... But I think we still have several months of consolodation before a break upwards.... We are coming into a triangle APEX of two converging long term trend lines... Price should get very volatile whipsawing back and fourth until we get the break out.... Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hello AdrianEI
[quote=AdrianEI


Take a look at what I see and tell me what you think :-D[/QUOTE]


IF AUDCAD didnot already finish a double zigzag in wave 4 then I think it will very shortly... I remain bullish for a move through .9180 in a wave 5 as long as .8800 (Wave 1 Top) is not penetrated.
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hefeiddd

I think 0.8840 will be the lowest chance

the uptrend support line is now above 0.8820. Also, the 0.8840 level is a strong support

see the pictureAttached Images

hefeiddd

Eur/cad your opinions are welcome



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hefeiddd

The Dow Looks Done For ....
One quick look at Jaime's long term chart of the Dow and I was thinking

" major correction " ...

If the dow is in a crash, it looks like it will be crashing for a long time yet !!!!
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hefeiddd

Msmak..
Here is EURCAD with corrective labels...... Instead of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 label... Sorry.. my bad
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hefeiddd

Alternate For AUDCAD
Looking at the longer term picture, price could still fall back down to it's support line... But even considering this alternate price action, I believe we still get this wave 5 up now before it falls over...
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hefeiddd

Eurchf
EURCHF looks like it just finished a big correction.....
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hefeiddd

Aud/cad
I think AUD/CAD should be extremely BULISH

I will try to figure out the pair in a smaller scale (e.g. 4-hour, 2-hour, hourly)
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hefeiddd

Audcad How about now ??

I know I will make you wound-up ... but please, just be a little bit patient with me



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hefeiddd

Aud/Cad

Wavecount ................

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hefeiddd

Aud / Usd - My Caution On A Short
I have read a lot of posts and FXCM fundamental reports recently advising of an imminent fall AUD/USD. I need to have these techncial shorting fears overcome in order to take it seriously. On the Weekly Chart Jaime Saettele and John Kicklighter wrote an article recetly citing an ABC correction that stopped at the recent high at 0.9400. Yet the first thing that jumps out at me on the Weekly chart is a massive bullish hammer whose long wick extends down to the intersection of 2 critical supports - the 38.2% retracement of the 2007 bullwave and the rising 50SMA on the same chart. How can I consider shorting a pair in the near future with such a bullish candlestick formation?

ATTACHMENT - Sorry about insert - I'm not good at attachments but you can clearly see the candlestick I'm worried about (the last one next to two exclamation marks). The purple line is the 50 SMA



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hefeiddd

Hey Eushman,
That count you speak of was my original count but the reason I changed it was judging by your count wave ii and iv of C don't have the same breath. If you want further proof of this, just look at at larger chart like a 4 or 8 hour. Because your wave iv went as long as it did, it gives the appearance of 3 waves up on a larger chart. Furthermore, there was a minor trend line of a ii of III down that was broken back on the 11th of January which I believe would provide significant resistance. That trend line now correlates back to 215. (see chart below). SO in essence, the Gbp/Jpy may have some unfinished business before crashing downward. However, Im still not sure as to C being over yet or not. I'm hoping not but I see your count as a definite possibility. A break below Friday's low would certainly put a damper on a move back to 215. Sunday's opening will definitely shed some light it.Attached Images