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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:47 | 显示全部楼层
Audusd More Bearish Than First Thought...
AudUsd looks like it has completed what appears to be a wave 4 on the long term cycle. I am actually surprised that I didn't see Jaime out here with this count first. I believe what Jaime has labelled as an ABC correction from the 2001 low is actually not an ABC, but is a huge wave "C" that completed an expanded flat correction, in a wave 4 that has been playing out for years. In my opinion. This chart is now due for a sizeable wave 5 move down that will eventually take us beyond the low at .4814 ..... Now that's some money !
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:48 | 显示全部楼层
Here's what I'm looking at In NZDUSD msmak56 .....Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:48 | 显示全部楼层
Forex Market Topped ?
A few counts I have looked at on long term time frames lately have me expecting a Phsycological wave 5 decline in atleast two forex markets right now (USD/JPY and AUD/USD) Question now is... How many of them will fall ? It's one crowd and one phsycology that drives all markets.... Knowing that we are at a long term wave 4 Phscological extreme has me thinking of a fall in more then just those two markets I mentioned. Wouldn't it catch a lot of people of gaurd if the pound rolled right over into a huge wave 5 decline... Talk about a risk environment !!! I think there are some major trend reversals taking place in the market in general right now.... Play your trades safe !

This is just a possibility for GBPUSD... NOT CAST IN STONE ..... But deffinately worth considering even if it's not a spot on count. It's the phsycological crowd driving the market.. We can deffinately see everyone is feeling pretty bearish...
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:49 | 显示全部楼层
gbpjpy going over a cliff ???
This is quite interesting..... Will be very interesting to see price break the lower trend line too ... Looks we're going down in a large wave 5 here too .. .. . .. . .
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:50 | 显示全部楼层
Usd Cad
hi guys,,,

can this be a correct counting ??
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:51 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/Usd

Hey there Good Lookin' ............
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:51 | 显示全部楼层
Eur/Usd

Here is a look at what could be occurring ....

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Only a Probability ! .................... Not Cast in Stone !
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:52 | 显示全部楼层
Eur/Usd

Here is a look at The Eur/Usd ( Mid-Term ) ............. !
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/Yen

Here is another look the Yen -
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:54 | 显示全部楼层
Eur/gbp Hi guys,

I am short from 0.743660 to take wave c down to finish wave [4] and then I might consider going long to take wave [5] up when EUR buyers start to emerge,,,

any comments ??
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:54 | 显示全部楼层
Good morning...

closed the short at 4540 and opened long at 4537 and 4511
I'm waiting 5 up or 2 of CAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/cad
I'm seeing this latest action as a series of 3s, possibly pointing toward a correction lower. I still favour this pair higher, and would not be selling these levels (in case I'm wrong about the pull back). However, a move through the lower line support should open up a short term trade (short USD/CAD) for a target of the 1.0140 area. Either way, I'd be a buyer again at 1.0150ish if we DO see the downside. Comments welcome.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:56 | 显示全部楼层
eurjpy
EURJPY has crossed the trendline again... Do we get a downside breakout this time ? Or is it going to reverse up again ?? Careful ....
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:57 | 显示全部楼层
hii all what happen here...too silent okay,this is my view friends for eurousd
i think it is important situation for euro now make a wave 2 for breash or bulish......okay lets market says .... break out trade is more safe now
happy trading
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Thanks Jamie,

i think the best point will end wave b is around the wave 2 of wave 5(because wave 5 is extension) and maybe wave c is equal of 1.618 wave a to 1.4845
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 08:57 | 显示全部楼层
Eurjpy
EURJPY.

Jamie,

Do you think that the correction is complete now ? Also do you think that EURJPY is still giving a good guidance as far as where the stock market is heading ?

Thanks.
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Could also be a 1,2 i,ii down at which point, this would be the perfect place to sell. But I need more info before jumping to that conclusion. I break above 1.47 is vital information before deciding on a valid wave count. My bearish count still stand until proven wrong.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:10 | 显示全部楼层
Euro/////

Both Targets Reached ! .......
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:11 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/Usd

Ok , here's the new wave-count ................
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Watch the green lines for resistance levels

After all this crap about the 3/4 point interest rate cut
how could that really stop a recession ?

it's an election year , this should be enough ........
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See 2 charts posted below
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:12 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/Cad

Here is the Canadian Dollar ......

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:13 | 显示全部楼层
EUR/USD alternative
Hi Jamie,
here is my alternative wave count that includes a truncated fifth wave. My question is that for the count to be valid, does wave A need to go below wave 4.

Thanks.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-30 09:14 | 显示全部楼层
Look for a rally into the .7514/37 zone to complete wave B of 4 before a deeper decline.Attached Images
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