一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

You're on the right track. Divergence occurs when price makes a new low and the indicator does not. That happened here...and indicates a turn. HOWEVER..the most important thing to look at is the wave pattern. I hardly ever use indicators. I find that most who do are always trying to sell into an uptrend and buy a downtrend because of 'divergence'. This is especially true in FX -- where we see extended 5th waves quite often. The truth of the matter is that markets can remain 'divergent' for long periods of time.Attached Images

hefeiddd

I just wanted to post a weekly cable chart without a count but to show that the pair is bouncing from what was resistance and is also a 38.2 fib.
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hefeiddd

EURUSD In Reverse ?
I think the euro has some kind of top in place..... Currently at the very least I would be expecting a decline in wave c... I was in a rush to place an impulsive decline into the count before because of the candle structure on the weekly... However The decline appears to be unfolding as a correction and correcting each wave from the up move on the way back... I hope that makes sense to everybody..
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hefeiddd

Watch EURUSD for possible Triple Top
If we're lucky maybe we'll get a triple top and start falling over slowly This market is highly over extended so thinking that it may triple top at the end would be viable... Just a thought.... Not cast in stone as Marketwavez would say ......
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hefeiddd

USDCHF bottoming yet ???
Price looks to be rejecting the 123.6 Fib Level in usdchf confirming a B wave bottom.... Only thing is... these dam B waves are so unpredictable... Price could easily slam right down to the 138.2 or 161.8 extension and leave bulls in the dust... So I recommend leaving this pair alone for a while longer.... Let the Oscillators turn up before making any rash judgement ! This is the weekly chart too... so still needs lots of time to form a solid support.
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hefeiddd

Usdjpy
Bears coming out to play !!! Watch for a monthly close below the trendline
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hefeiddd

Anyone Trading EURJPY be careful....
I know the short side sounds good to many for EURJPY right now.... Just be careful though ... I'm sure without a doubt, that after the thrust upwards from the past few years price could easily wedge itself into a top before falling over...... Or who knows... God Forbid for the Bears... Continues Higher ....
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hefeiddd

Eur/chf
Hi guys,

what do you think of this couting ??

I am expecting a complex corrective wave ( 4 ) since wave ( 2 ) was simple
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hefeiddd

Failed 5th Wave??
Newbie Here. Criticism welcome.
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if this count is, correct.i should say this market is very triky....i will be really surprised.......
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hefeiddd

It is hard to imagin the wave start from 1.4309 to end 1.4918 is wave 1 so wave 3 just end around 1.5600(hard to believe) but we can imagin a triangle for wave 4 (weekly time frame)if we supose triangle one problem still remain which time is unreliable for recognize waves,as Jamie said befor wave 2 (18,17 days for builte) if we imagin a triangle wave 4 much more than 17 days to built so i think time is not too reliable for recognize waves ,okay this is my view friends.
happy tardingAttached Images

hefeiddd

The decline looks corrective to me. It counts better as a 3 than a 5Attached Images

hefeiddd

I proposed an alternate bullish count for EURUSD this morning...and I think that this confirms it..risk is at 1.4588...target is again 1.52/53...entry near 1.4650
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hefeiddd

I believe that the bigger picture provides enough evidence to suggest that the bullish count is the correct one...especially given that we are probably in a larger 5th wave from 1.4310Attached Images

hefeiddd

eur/jpy to follow the same path as gbp/jpy
the eur/jpy will fall and fall fast..the ECB has given hints that they are more dovish..and the eur is extreemly over extendend. With the massive right downs happening in the usa banks and soon will begin to show up in europe as it did in the united kingdom we can expect to see the vlaue of there curreny go down, coupled along with the fears of a global slow down its just a matter of time before we begin to see all this reflect in there currency.. please see my chart


i am new to this forum..



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hefeiddd

the USD
I now tend to go with a bit more strength for the usd in the short run. One of the reasons is I dont see the moves being complete in EURUSD. I'd need another low for the EURUSD even if we're looking at an expanded flat as per Jamie's count. The move from the top is for me now in three waves, which is not what a C wave should be in an expanded flat and the B of the expanded flat does look a bit sharp as blueman pointed out (guess it was him). Yesterday was a big drop, today we've seen a correction, which I personally interpret best as an expanded flat. See below on 30 min.

Plus, if I look at the bigger count on a 4-hour graph, the wave 1 suggested from 1.431 bottom is very sharp and very long... And as Jamie said it once - impulses should be sharpest and quickest in the middle normally... So this wave 1 of the proposed impulse carried us 500 pips higher and was corrected to 38% retracement rougly (very bullish), while the 1st wave of the extended wave 1.336-1.496 carried us 350 pips. How long is the third wave gonna be in this cycle then? And more importantly - is the (5th) wave going to be the longest of the run since 1.326 then after an extended 3?

Just an opinion... some of my logic currently while being cautios for now....

Any criticism very welcome.

GL all

Pic.
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hefeiddd

Usd/Gbp

End of a " Wave 4 " in the making ?........

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Gbp/Usd

Probable wave-count .................

End of Wave "C "
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Bearish Harami = Good Night !
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-30 07:16 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Hi there Studentforex.. If this is a wave 4 correction I would expect it to stay within the channel lines on the chart.. The 23.6 fibo line matches up pretty good with the upper channel line. If the count is correct, I think price should top out in the 1.9850 - 1.9900 range... and then we start wave 5 down...

As for EURUSD... I'm on the sidelines watching for now... Not the best choice for a trade right now....Attached Images

hefeiddd

Kiwi
I agree with ben on the Kiwi. It's possible to count the whole decline from 0.7931 as one impulse move. The choppy rally that followed is so far in three waves and has retraced to just above the 38.2% Fib of the large decline. A support line has been formed on the lows of the correction and price has recently pushed down through that line. I'm looking now for that move to be in five small waves to confirm the downtrend.

That scenario agrees with the larger wave count, and opens the door for more Kiwi weakness.
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One more high required for EUR/GBP?
EUR/GBP has rolled over and is headed lower, but I believe another high must be registered to finally complete the very extended third wave. Looking at the daily chart you can see that there are currently 11 completed waves that make up the larger third wave. Since impulse waves come in waves of 5,9,13,etc, it is clear that the current move isn't complete. We should get a dip and then one more rally in the next week or so to finish things up. That dip has already started (as shown by the second chart below). So far five waves are complete, so a small rally/congestion and one more small decline would complete the correction and give way to the final rally. That should offer a trade of at least 250 points or so.
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hefeiddd

JPY weekly Is that possible that e-B could support the downside trend?
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hefeiddd

so do you think that 1.98900 is a good entry point and the target is 1.91600 with stop loss above the psychological levl of 2.0000 ??Attached Images