一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hey Edisko,
Im bearish on the Aussie for several reasons, not just my count. I just didn't like the way Jamie labeled it cause his B wave looked unnatural to me. But, as a told a colleague of mine, even IF I were bullish, Id label it just as you just labeled it where wave B is a running flat. At least that way, B wave would have 3 legs. I could see it and its alot more intuitive. Now the main reason im bearish the Aussie Im expecting a USD rally. It already started with the Pound and Cad. Why would it not happen with the Euro or Aussie. What makes them so special. Plus there seems to be some corlation with the Aussie and Gold in recent year. Now hears a long term chart of Gold. So Edisko, you tell me, as an Elliotician, do you see what I see? What do you think is going to happen with the US dollar once Gold come crashing down in its wave 2.
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hefeiddd

gold ,ending diagonal ?????
what do you pepule think ?
is it bilding an ending diagonal ?

wishing all a grate week,,,,,
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hefeiddd

Gbpusd
Ending Diagonal 5 of C for GBPUSD
Looking for a sub wave 2 retrace to ride it up.

EG




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hefeiddd

Gbbjpy
I am seeing a similar scenario playing out on the gbpjpy ie a diagonal triangle. wave 5 of the diagonal seems about to complete. comparing it with the gbpusd we seem to have similar patterns that might be worth watching.

Chuks
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hefeiddd

it seems we have two sideways correction now in eurousd,alternation of sharp and sideway correction for wave 2 and 4 case they both are wave i and more bulish for euro forcast....
happy trading
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hefeiddd

Thanx for your reply,,,
with 2nd look at the chart you are corct ,,,,

only a brake of the green line (marked on the cart below ) before riseing up higher eill make this current leg up a 3 wave leg,,,Attached Images

hefeiddd

Thanks for the reply ,
in a 2nd look at the chart you are corect,,,,

the satback thats going now if it will brake belaw the green line (on the att. chart ) it will make it 3 WAVE leg,,,
will wate & see,,,,,,Attached Images

hefeiddd

My update count...
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hefeiddd

Measured objectives for the GBPJPY are at 209.50 and 210.50. The low today is at 210.73, which is close. While 1 more low is possible early this week, I do think that the next big move is back to the former 4th wave extreme above 217.00Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eur/Usd

US Official Recession is coming - !
Any day now -

Britsh Pound in serious decline but the Euro is rallying strongly
talk about currency correlations ?

-These are interesting times to say the least ..........
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hefeiddd

Not sure for how big of a rally you are looking for but the daily charts shows that there is a very good chance that we are in wave 3 of larger 3. Objectives are near 97.50. In other words, strength is to be soldAttached Images

hefeiddd

Hey guys, get ready for what might be a multi-day rally back to 111 or so for the Cad /jpy in a possible expanded flat wave II of 3 down. Yen pairs are due for a correction and I think were about to get it.look for signs or a reversal as early as tonight.
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This is still my count for the Aussie. SO far we just got a sharp decline from today's high at .9000 (which may prove to be psychological resistance). Im seeing this as a possible first sign of a reversal although we still only have 3 waves down on a 5 min chart. Needles to say, Im watching this one closely.
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Careful guys,
Heres the second sign of a possible reversal on the Aussie. This is what I see on a 5 min chart.
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hefeiddd

Im revising my 5 min count on the Aussie. We need a new low to confirm an impulsive wave down. We have 7 waves so far. Unless we're looking at an expanded flat scenario.Attached Images

hefeiddd

I appreciate your advice on crowd and independent thinking. In trading, timing must be considered. I believe in the big picture analysis that Elliott Wave International preaches about the USD regarding deflation (which is where you get that from...they have been expecting this for years now and yet the dollar has gone down and the decline has accelerated recently). In other words, it doesn't pay to be a contrarian just to be contrarian.

On your crowd thinking argument. What evidence do you have that the 'crowd' is decidedly USD bearish? Below is a chart of the USD index with an index below it that I calculate from speculative and commercial positioning which is then filtered through a 52 week percetile. Readings of 100 (or close to it) indicate that the 'crowd' is extremely long and that the dollar is likely to weaken. Readings of 0 (or close to it) indicate that hte 'crowd' is extremely short and that the dollar is likely to rally. The current reading is close to 100, indicating that the USD is likely to fall.....that is independent thinking.

The vertical lines indicate times when the indicator reading was above 95.Attached Images

hefeiddd

any reason can u add??? Euro
Why 1.4912 is important now,as u see it can be end of bulish and reversal situation,but we have two reason told us euro can go higher and continue bullish trend still.....

As Jamie said befor the time of wave 4 is equal of wave 2 (weekly)now and as cyberchunky said befor alternative pattern is correct in wave 2 and wave 4(wave 2 flat and wave 4 zigzag),any reason can u add for convice me euro in bulish trend again...thanks(sorry for my knowledge of english language)
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hefeiddd

eurousd
this is my short term count for the eurousd. so far the decline from 1.4917 is corrective so far. expecting further movements north.
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hefeiddd

Oil
ready to bulish ??????
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hefeiddd

well,i think for longterm ...i have just this dailycount from oil i donot know this match in your count or not...Attached Images

hefeiddd

ohhh .Gbp bottom??????Attached Images

hefeiddd

I am expecting a bottom to form this week below 1.9483...probably in the 1.9420/50 zone.Attached Images