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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:17 | 显示全部楼层
EURJPY Medium term
It looks like this is unfolding right now in eurjpy
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:18 | 显示全部楼层
Sorry.. posted wrong chart for eurjpy.... this is my correct countAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:18 | 显示全部楼层
I am revising my price projection for a wave Gbp/Jpy I made this morning. I was expecting price to bring us back to 219 to 221 for a wave iv of III. (given that typical wave iv price projections are 38.2% to 50 % of wave iii). But heres the problem. The fear in the markets right now are anything but typical. I should have realized that this morning. I believe wave iv is over and ended at the 23.6% of wave III which was 217.11. Price is not going back to 220 and were in wave V of III. This may be an extended wave V who knows. But this is where I believe were at right now. We still need a new low to confirm that.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:19 | 显示全部楼层
eurjpy
Anyone watching for this in the eurjpy tonight?




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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:20 | 显示全部楼层
Could someone please help me verify if I have done correctly the 33333 wave structure for a symmetrical triangle on this 15min chart?

I also attach my 1hr wave count

EG
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:21 | 显示全部楼层
Hi,
this is that I see.....
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:22 | 显示全部楼层
seems nice trade
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:23 | 显示全部楼层
Hello Blueman ,

Here is a Long-term look at the Us Dollar ......
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:23 | 显示全部楼层
current look at the euro
Come on !!! Dive, Dive, Dive !!!
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:24 | 显示全部楼层
Here's what your looking for Blueman.... I posted this chart previously... I can count 7 waves down in the "B" wave... I think we're just starting wave 3 down. I am short this pair and looking to ride it as long as it will let me Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:25 | 显示全部楼层
Just to let you know Blueman... I have not completely discounted the fact that we may be a wave 2 as Jaime says. All I know is that when I see it moving down and I feel it's due to drop right off, I have no choice but to short it. I will keep my eyes peeled for any support before 1.4310.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:26 | 显示全部楼层
Heads up guys,
Eur/Gbp looks ripe for a fall. It reached the psychological barrier of .7500. Could that be a multi-day high? If its a wave 3 high, we may go as low as 7100 area. But if its a wave C, we have a monster trade in our midst.
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Hey Serhito,
This is the long term count. Wave 5 also breaks down in 5 waves but its not shown in this chart. Be careful if your long or thinking of going long. I count this as 1 gargantuan wave. Wave 2 should begin shortly and it should shake out most of the gold longs. Thats when I will buy.
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stocks and carry
looks like stocks are in for a relief at last. where else than from the august lows... what is also playing out nicely i guess is YEN crosses going for their upward correction C wave - particularly looks well in GBPJPY to me. The 3-up, 3-down structure from ~213.5 lows and the respect of the lows is calling for the C rally there at least for me. The push lower ended in a nice diagonal which offers excellent risk:reward usually. I'm long 214.25, stop below the lows.

Good night everyone.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:27 | 显示全部楼层
I think EUR/USD is in C wave on the hr 2 with a target of 1.4420-25. Stop is 1.4750 for shorts.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:28 | 显示全部楼层
And The Plot Thickens!
Reversal candlestick for Gold!
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Fork in the road for Eur/Jpy!
Eur/Jpy at a crucial point! Back to the wave 2 lower trendline. I think it may reverse lower from here.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:29 | 显示全部楼层
Hey Picolo,
This is my count for the Eur/Jpy. Although I must admit, short term, the count is not as clear. I'm using this as a road map for now.Attached Images








Kiwi FINALLY about to plumit?
Hey guys, heads up on the Kiwi.
What do you guys think about this count?
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:30 | 显示全部楼层
Time to go play golf,,,,,,,

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( Double click on chart to enlarge )Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:30 | 显示全部楼层
Kiwi... Why won't it just roll over now?
Hey Italm,

Here's the count I'm working with for the Kiwi. I'm feeling a little bit of heat now on this one, but I still think it's headed lower. Our counts are a little different but they both call for weakness ahead, so that's good. With the dollar strength in the other currencies, we should see the same dollar strength here as well. The five waves up from 0.6639 that are visible on the daily is still the major pattern in play, and that expanded flat is still forming, so another leg lower is definately due. But why won't it just do it already!
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:35 | 显示全部楼层
GbpUsd

Chart Update : ( 1hr bars )

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Only a Probability !............. Not Cast in Stone !

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 09:00 | 显示全部楼层
More EURUSD talk
I agree with EG888 as far as the EUR/USD count that was mentioned earlier. I have attached a chart that I put together way back in November for some people I'm trying to teach to trade. What I saw was the overlapping waves and that it was the start of a new impulse move. I still think that's the case and that this chart still is valid. There is so much evidence, in my view, that points to a lot more strength in EUR/USD and the fact that price is working higher in a large wave five. The wave counts all add up, the fibonacci relationships and the price retracements are all textbook moves, and everything has been following the rules of Elliott Wave quite well. Fundamentally speaking, Gold/Oil continues to rise which pushes the USD down. Also, the US economy continues to have troubles that are keeping the USD prett weak. So I can see much more strength in the EUR/USD.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 09:02 | 显示全部楼层
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