一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I just discovered why I was having a hard time with that wave 4 count. I just realized that the MT4 platform I was using for my EW Charting most likely had an anomaly in their data.

That was the reason why I could not accpet that the move from 1.4747 down to 1.4581 was not done yet and could not be a Zigzag ABC. That was because wave C then was already 300% of wave A which is way over the 161.8% max to be considered still as a Zigzag.

While reviewing Price for the technical analysis side on a different MT4 platform, there I realized that wave 4 was actually a Zigzag with C being 161.8% of wave A. thus satisfying the requirement.

So now , using channelling.... I see price to be going up for the sub wave 5 of 5 where it is encountering support at the Daily Pivot level holding it for sub wave 4 of 5 which turned out to be a Bullish Flag.

EG
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hefeiddd

The usd/jpy triangle debate - market
You asked: "Not sure what you are saying about the touch of the lines ....."

You said: "I'm trying to believe in your secondary long term Usd/Yen

the only thing thats stopping me is that price is not touching the upper resistance line
at the end of the Larger wave C

I understand that price formation doesn't have to be perfect
but price is just to far away from that upper resistance line of the triangle that you have illustrated today."

I then asked u why do you want the upper trendline to be touched at wave A, C and E perfectly as in the patterns u have kindly attached? And I also said that IF u would interpret that as a bearish triangle (which can be justifid assuming the price action up to the extreme low at 1995, then price overshooting the upper trnedline at E is a good indication, the up-move might be over - that's where I would start looking for a short position. I always love the triangles to overshoot the line and then not go anywhere close to C wave. Currencies do that often, commodities often fail to reach the trendline in E waves, cause their moves are stronger - for the most recent example of that check gold price action 18-nov-2007 to 17-dec-2007, which was a great buy for the thrust upwards out of the triangle.

As for what I was telling u - attaching a chart of UJ.

Good day all.

Picolo
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hefeiddd

Italm31

Here is why I am still Bullish with the EURUSD.

I just saw this now so I will wait to see if this does develop as I think it would.

EURUSD Update

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Barrier Triangle

I am changing my view for that wave 2 from side ways expanded to a Zigzag with C = .618 of A. Thit it would lead to expecting a Complex corrective wave for Wave 4 which can be FLAT or a Triangle. In this case, it is possible to develop into a barrier triangle.

Bullish Flag over extended and Now looks like Wave 4 is forming a big Barrier Triangle.

Watch out for a possible throwunder which could be a False Breakout to the Down side.

Barrier triangles in this form normally are Bullish as the Textbook would say.

Now it makes more good sense why it is best to wait for a breakout at 1.4750.


EG
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hefeiddd

Anyone Paying Attention to AUDCAD ??
AUDCAD looks like it might be ready to vault higher soon ! Even though this short term pattern on the daily isn't a classic elliot wave, I believe this count best suits the current price action.

ANY THOUGHTS ???
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hefeiddd

Opinions Wanted ! I completely disected the EURJPY since the 2000 low. This count looks to skyrocket in coming years. I just wanted to see what the rest of you see ?? I posted a longer term chart of EURJPY previously showing the 2000 low as breaking out of a long term downward diagonal triangle. I will be looking to get long this pair for years to come in the near future.

Any thoughts always welcome



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hefeiddd

Good morning to you all ......

Eur/Usd

Here is some eye candy for all you Euro Bulls.......... Enjoy !

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hefeiddd

End of the Line for the Euro?
Hey guys,
I understand why everybody is bullish the Euro by looking at the Eur/Usd chart but Im going to go out on a limb and say the Euro is about to take a HUGE fall. I can't seem to shake this feeling that a bear trap is setting up. Had we gone over 4750 today, even by 1 pip, I might have been as bullish as everybody here. Assuming the decline from the top was an ABC where the breech of wave B at 4750 would indeed be bullish. However, we never made it. I believe todays high was 4749. Why didnt it go to 4751 and then pull back. Heres another clue why I think its the end of the line for the Euro. As bearish as the pound is right now, take a look at the chart. This is a weekly chart of the Eur/Gbp but daily momentum has slowed dramatically. A drop belows today's low is the intitial signal of a top for at least several days.
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hefeiddd

hi all anybody can help me to count weekly gbp correctlly........thanks frnds
blueman
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hefeiddd

Here's my take on the USDJPY now

EG
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hefeiddd

Here is my current view on the EURUSD and the GBPJPY

For GBPJPY, 209 is just the FE 100.00 for C = A.

But an Extended C will go down as low as 190.39 which is stil above the end of what I think is wave 1 @ 181.47

EG
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hefeiddd

MWZ2...

I think my EURJPY count is following your footsteps.

EG
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hefeiddd

Hey Brad,
Im assuming your asking for my count for the Eur/Jpy. Let me just say the EGs count looks very plausible. I however and more bearish long term. I believe we've topped and as a result have have a multi-year high in place. That being said, shorter term, Im with Eg. I like to see nice channels when looking at corrections such as wave 2s. That way, confirmations for wave 3s are easy to spot. Eur/Jpy has provided that in spades. Heres what I see short term. The break below this channel confirms were in wave I of 3 where wave 3 should bring us to a minimum of 152.Attached Images

hefeiddd

hey Guys,
I wouldn't be to quick to count the dollar out after todays dismal new on employment rates. Heres how I see it, as the "recession" has pretty much all been confirmed, were going to see a hell of alot of people get out of assets and run for safety which has always been good old cash. Whether treasury bills or what not, this flood of cash will give the dollar a major boost. As a result, the dollar crosses will tkae a huge hit if Im correct. I know, I know, the Euro looks pegged for a new high. I agree, but don't count out the possibility of a truncated 5 or c wave. Heres my big picture count yet again!
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hefeiddd

Hey Ben,
I couldn't agree with you more regarding the kiwi. I think all crosses against the dollar are about to fall (except Yen). Most have already done so except euro and kiwi yet despite that, we still have record number of dollar bears. Talk about allowing the media to influence us! Anyways, your right about the kiwi. My count as us in wave III down as well which should give us a target of 7100.Attached Images

hefeiddd

i'm looking nzd/usd since some days, waiting the begining of the downtrend.
i think this moment came, here's 1' chart, the impulse is clear :



i'm now waiting b then c to short...noone is interested by kiwi?
there is always a good potential,
5' chart :

hefeiddd

The USDJPY has completed wave i of the next bull leg (which I expect to end near 115.60/70). Wave ii might be complete but I wouldn't be surprised to see a larger correction test below 109 once more before the real rally begins. Regardless, this thing is bullish as long as price is above 108.23.
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hefeiddd

What about this Brad ?............

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hefeiddd

That's not what's important ............
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That's why there is forums like these ............
-A great place to compare your thoughts with others

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If you don't see a wave-count developing - Why not just simply ask some else ?Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi there Brad ,

Here is a look at the Eur/Usd ( Long Term )
5 Clear Waves

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hefeiddd

Here is the Usd/Cad ...... ( Mid Term )

Tommorow should be interesting for this pair

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