一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Your welcome bud!

Now regarding the Dow, I sort of have a different twist that Jamie for now. I don't see the long term pattern as complete just yet only we are very close. If my count is correct, it would put us in wave V of large C of super degree wave B. Given the uncertainty in the markets, it would not surprise me one bit if an ending diagonal would be forming. Like I said, its just a different twist. We need to be patient to see what transpires. I'm mentioning this because as Jamie said, it could help in timing carry trades. So for now, if my count is correct, we should get a nice rally in the second leg of wave 3. (I believe Jamie's count is calling for a rally soon as well.). Also given the nature of ending diagonals (if one is forming), it could be a while before we get an end. perhaps a few weeks to a couple of months. In other words, I expect some very choppy market action to come.Attached Images








Well, I agree were going down...lol. But Im alot more bearish than you are regarding the Euro. Heck, im alot more bearish than everyone here I think regarding the euro. I see us going down into a wave C of super cycle degree. So I see us breeching the Dec. 2005 low. But I do like your chart....very intuitive.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
It appears were at a crossroads regarding the Gbp/Jpy. We seem to be sitting on a wave ii trendline. A break below this trendline would not look to favorable for bulls.
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If this trend line we to break and wed be in a 3 or C down, at the very least typical price target for wave C would bring us down to 209 level while typical price target for wave 3 would be the 190 level. OUCH!
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hefeiddd

In summary, we are getting close to a multi-week bottom in the carry. One more rally in the Dow should complete larger Y and give way to a third wave decline that will be devastating to bulls and those long 'risk'.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eurusd The more I look at this count and disect the internal stucture ..... I'm really starting to like the look of this.... I don't know about anyone else... There's got to be one person here that agrees with this count .... Come on where are you.. ??? lol





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hefeiddd

On another note...your bearish gbpjpy bias is gaining some traction. Here is the EURJPY. At the least, I do expect a drop below wave A (which is at 158.68) before any possibility of a sustained rally comes to the forefront. Whether or not that happens immediately or in a few weeks is not clear to me but I feel comfortable with a bearish stance against 165.36.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Jeanne,

I do not know if this is the bottom or not. I can not forecast certainties but I can forecast probabilities. Given that the pair is dropping below trendline support and that the rally from the 221.27 looks corrective, I would say that probability is low that this is the bottom.
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hefeiddd

Recent consolidaton is a small 4th wave I believe and in the form of a triangle. Expect weakness near term to end near 113.00 before a terminal thrust through 113.59 completes wave v of 3 of C. Then 4 of C should unfold. In summary, expect a choppy USDJPY over the next week at least.
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hefeiddd

Here is a look at the Usd/Yen
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hefeiddd

Here's The Chart....Attached Images

hefeiddd

Be Careful With EURUSD !!! I say Give this pair just a little bit longer and we just might have a nice downside thrust In Wave A.... It looks to me like there is already too much downside thrust off the high..... I would not be surprised at all to see this pair move down very fast if my count proves correct. I thought an upside correction first intraday, but I'm starting to question it... I'm see'in alot of RED coming off that last high.. My first target will be 1.3700. ___ Remember this is the weekly chart...

This Is by no means telling anyone to take a trade... It's only information... what we do with our trading is our own personal business We must make our own decisions in life.

I hope anyone new around here learns something from these posts.... I remember how hard it was when I first started... If you keep your eyes peeled though... especially on the oscillators and the longer time periods, you should do alright !

Another thing I noted on the chart was the Wave 4 of 5 "Throw Under" It pops just outside the bottom of the diagonal triangle before the final thrust higher over the top.

That should be your cue to watch for the top

If your trend lines are drawn correctly off the top of wave 3 and the bottom of wave 4, you should see it.


-CHEERS-





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hefeiddd

Certainly possible. If the entire rally from 1.2458 is an ending diagonal, then price will eventually return to the origin of the diagonal. If the decline from 1.4966 extends to 5 waves, then we'll have an opportunity to get bearish on the setback. In other words, if this count is the correct one, then the current decline is just i of A.Attached Images

hefeiddd

The long term picture alerted us that 1.4309 is where a=c and that this could be the end of wave 4. The 5 minute chart shows a 5 wave rally and 3 wave decline....waves 1 and 2 up of the next larger degree. Time to turn bullish I believe.
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hefeiddd

have another view of long term eurousd,can it be correct?Attached Images

hefeiddd

With al this talk about the Euro big picture, are we even keeping our eye on the ball. Right now we have strong downward momentum. we need to focus on that. Who right, whos wrong? Who cares? I just want to know where I am today so that I can trade tommorrow. Weve reached a critical juncture in the Euro. If this is an abc of A, well then c is close to the 100% level of a. Be interesting to note if we go down to the 161% area which would be a typical 3.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-28 18:45 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

We've just made a lower low on the weekly chart of the Eur/Jpy(granted, just a candlestick) and momentum is down significantly. This could be the start of wave 3 or c down. A typical wave c target brings us to 156 area. This although not shown on his chart would bring us down to he 21 month moving average which I would imaging would provide significant support. Look for price to be sideways to down for the next several days.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-28 18:46 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Jaime.... I see you chose a different wave 4 bottom on your count ...... Not that it matters because in both cases its right in the same area so it doesn't change the current outlook for a decline.... however... I thought I would disect that wave 4 correction...... I think the second half of this correction went too long and too deep to be anything but a "C" wave, plus it has 5 overlapping waves. Even if it didn't break the prior low... It did come within 7 pips of the "A" wave low.. I think it's one big running flat.... What do you think ?? If you look at the overall long term pattern from the December 05 low, I think your wave 4 is too short... Wave 4's are usually the longest corrections and move sideways....Attached Images

hefeiddd

Another look at the euro
This will be my short term count for eurusd until it proves me wrong..... After a second look at the structure.... This count looks right to me....



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hefeiddd

Usdjpy I'm proposing this count for USDJPY for two reasons..

1) This correction off the bottom is feeling way too bullish.

2) A correction of this degree fits well with the prior pattern.




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hefeiddd

This is a possible long term view of AUD/JPY. The rally that began October of 2005 has completed a five wave impulse move. When you break it down, all of the setbacks have occured in three waves and all rallies have unfolded in five wave patterns. Waves three and five look to be extended. Wave (5) of larger five has rallied in five waves to a point just above the previous wave three high and has formed a double top. So based on this info, I think that AUD/JPY is headed for a long decline down to possibly the 50.0% Fib level at 81.66. That's currently a move of 1500 points or so. So there should be plenty of opportunities to short this one on the way down.

The most recent decline from the 29 October 2007 high has come in five waves and the rally that followed is corrective in a three wave pattern. I posted a chart a week or so ago showing a decline in what I thought might be wave 'C' of a correction(Post #2252). But now based on the long term pattern, I think the impending decline will be wave three of large wave 'A' of the long term correction that's taking place now.

I've heard a lot of talk lately in the news about how Japan's economy is getting stronger and how that country is starting to do some good things which are making the JPY strengthen against other currencies. Add to that the bearish long-term view from dailyfx on AUD/USD, and you can see that the technicals and the fundamentals are aligning pretty well in favorof the bearish side of things. So there is pretty much a green light for the AUD/JPY to make a pretty nice run to the downside in the coming months.
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hefeiddd

GBP/CHF Declining in Large Wave Three?
Here's my thoughts on the long term structure in GBP/CHF. The rally off of 1.7594 that began way back in November of 1995 is in a very clear three wave pattern that peaked in April of 2000. Since then, there has been a decline and a rally that brings us to the present. The most recent rally is in a three wave pattern as well. So, since both rallies have been in three wave patterns, I believe the major trend is still in a downward direction. If price is indeed heading lower, then we should see the lows of both corrections taken out at some point.

I know that people in this forum aren't position traders and probably don't take signals from the long term charts, but I do think it's important to know the overall direction of the markets before you can take any short term signals. I compare this to taking a road trip from New Jersey to California. You wouldn't depart Jersey while looking at a Los Angeles City map would you? No, probably not. You would first take a look at a map of the whole country to get the best overall route for the trip. Then, as you started your journey you would look at the map more in depth state by state so you could fine tune the route. So back to trading then- By knowing the overall direction of the markets, GBP/CHF specifically, we can see that that trend there is definately down and that shorting this market is the best idea.

So looking at the daily chart now, I think that price is ready to break lower in wave (5) of larger wave three. The 161.8% Fib of large wave one (2.4966-2.3758) is 1954 points. Since large wave three began at 2.4426, the target for wave three therefore is down at 2.2472. OK? Now into wave three itself. Wave one (2.4426-2.3487) was 939 points long. I think wave four has unfolded in some sort of Irregular Flat or something similiar and may be complete now or will be pretty soon if it's not. So the high of wave four is at 2.3361. Waves one and five would equal each other down at a price of 2.2422. That price is very close to the 161.8% Fib for large wave three at 2.2472. That's a difference of only 50 points.

I think that there is an opportunity now to short wave five, and then once a large correction comes out there should be another opportunity to get back in for the next leg lower.
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