一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

USD/CAD and Gold
One of the things I like most about the currencies is the way they are correlated with other markets around the world. I think it's pretty cool to be able to look at all of these different charts and see how they move around with each other. As everybody here knows, some of the big things currency traders watch for are the relationship between Gold/Oil and the commodity currencies. I've been watching the price of gold recently as it works higher and using that to trade in USD/CAD. Obviously as the price of Gold/Oil increases, CAD gets stronger against other currencies. The chart I attached here shows how that's been the case lately. While not exactly correlated, the two charts are extremely close. A reversal in one chart led to a reversal in the other within just a few days at the most. Which one comes first? Did the chicken come before the egg, or did the egg come before the chicken? It seems that the USD/CAD has led Gold by about a day or so on the last few market reversals. Well currently, the USD/CAD seems to have rolled over again and is heading lower. At the same time, Gold looks to be working out a fourth wave triangle, and is set to thrust higher soon. So if we can get Gold to pop higher it would then confirm the move lower in USD/CAD, and make for a pretty nice trade.
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hefeiddd

Usd Yen

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Onward !............... stop stalling , Keep moving !

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hefeiddd

Hi there Brad

Go check out what
jamie wrote post # 2300 showing nice consolidation in the Usd/Jpy

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Here is the Usd/Yen update ....price has rallied nicely into 1st Target

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hefeiddd

How about some Egg Nogg for the Us Dollar ?

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Looks like and end of a " Wave 5 "may be in the making ? .......
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Only a Probability !.................... Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

How about some Egg Nogg for the Us Dollar ?

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( Short- Term view )
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Only a Probability !.................... Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

EURUSD ready to rally through 1.5
It looks as though EURUSD has finished its fourth wave correction. Wave 'A' finished in 442 points and wave 'C' was 440 points, making the two waves pretty much equal. Wave 'C' is completed in five waves and price has already begun to rally. If you look to the 30 minute chart you can see that the decline from 1.4409 is in three waves so far and thus corrective. So we should at the very least see price exceed 1.4409 when trading begins again next week. There is also a trendline that has held price down for the last few days. If that line is overcome, we should get price to rally from there and begin large wave five.
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The next leg down in CAD/JPY will probably coincide with the next legs down in USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. Looking at the JPY futures chart, you can see that the correction has retraced to a level just ahead of the 61.8% Fib level and price is set to rally again. So a reversal there should occur soon and cause the JPY currency crosses to begin their next declines.
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hefeiddd

Top in Place for USD/JPY?
USD/JPY may have topped out at 114.46 on 23Dec. I don't see a clear sign of a reversal as of yet, but I do think the top is near. There is a clear five wave decline that began 14October followed by a clear three wave corrective rally. That rally has retraced to a level just above the 61.8% Fib of Wave one. Wave two usually retraces to at least the 61.8% Fib of wave one. Because of this I'm looking to see price start the next bear leg that would be wave (iii) of 3. So we should see this decline accelerate quite nicely here pretty soon.

Wave three usually extends to the 161.8% Fib of wave one. That would give us an initial target down at ~97.12 if price has indeed topped out at 114.46. That's a move of 1734 points.

My plan of attack on this trade is to do one of two things. First, I'll look for a small five wave decline and get short on the correction that follows. Or second, I'll look for price to break down through the trendline that has formed, and I'll short the retest of that line.

-I put the 'B' in the wrong spot. It goes just to the right of 'A'.
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hefeiddd

Usdchf
Hmmm.... Looks Good To Me !!




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hefeiddd

This is my long term outlook for usdjpy Gabo




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hefeiddd

Hi Brad ,
THANK YOU FOR PROVIDING SUCH A LONG TERM Usd/Yen CHART

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This is interesting ,
- there may be a massive Double Bottom at the end of Wave B
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hefeiddd

Gruezi mitenand !
USDCHF positive divergence
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hefeiddd

Hi Brad,

I studied your USD/JPY count. I come to something different.

What I find here is that wave B is exactly 50% of wave A.

I still believe that USD can go up a little further (115 - 116) for 2 reasons :
1. The market is digesting the bad news of the credit crunch. The injection of FED and ECB of money will quiet down things for a while. The players have resumed carry trade, hence the bullishness of the pair.
2. The BoJ is not going to raise interest rates since economy in Japan is slowing down.

I would like to have your impression on this wave count.




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hefeiddd

can it be logical analyst...
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hefeiddd

Heads up guys,
Cad/Jpy looks like it may be ready to commence its wave 3 down very soon. Merry Christmas to everyone!
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hefeiddd

it seems that corrcetion(wave 4) finished......
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hefeiddd

Long Term View for USD/JPY
I agree with brad as to where USD/JPY is at on the long term. There is an obvious contracting triangle that has been forming since 1995. Triangles usually form as either wave four or wave 'B'. It doesn't seem that a large scale correction is playing out, so it looks like this triangle is wave four of a very large five wave decline. So we should see price decline all the way down past the April 1995 low at 79.80. At that point price should then begin a corrective rally that could last several years.

While that information is way too vague and doesn't give us any trading signals, it does tell us that the path of least resistance is to the downside and that short setups on a swing basis are the best ones to take advantage of.
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USD/CHF Impulse Move to the Downside
The next round of USD weakness is underway as USD/CHF has made a five wave impulse move to the downside on the 60 minute chart. In the coming weeks we should see price drop below the 22November low of 1.0883. Price is currently trading at ~1.1500, so we are looking for a move of at least ~600 points.

Also, in the spirit of USD weakness, EUR/USD has begun its rally that will complete the five wave advance that started back on 12June2007. We will finally get to see price push through the 1.5000 level.

With continued weakness in the USD and the fact that the JPY is set to rally across the board, a downside reversal for the USD/JPY should be near that will eventually take price to new lows in that currency pair.

My trades for the next few weeks are shorting USD against CHF and EUR, and buying JPY against the USD and AUD. I still maintain that AUD/JPY has recently made a major top and that price is ready to drop lower in wave three of 'A.'
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hefeiddd

Where to Buy EURUSD Next?
It's been a great week if you were short on the USD. There are impulse moves in a lot of currency pairs showing USD weakness. So the next round of dollar selling has definately begun. The first leg of EUR/USD looks to be complete, so it's time to figure out where to buy this market for the next leg higher.

Looking at a two hour chart, I drew a trendline off the highs of the wave four correction. I think price will decline down to and test that line as support before we rally again. Also, wave two usually retraces to about the 50.0% Fib of wave one. That level is 1.4518. I show that in the first chart I have attached.

The second chart shows the junction of the trendline, 50.0% retracement, and 1.382% Fib Time Extension. You can see that where I drew the magenta circle on the chart.

Using the Fib Retracement and Time Extension, a possible reversal point will be on 02Jan2008 at a price of 1.4518.
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hefeiddd

bullish alternate for USDJPY, with iv finding support later on the trendline
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hefeiddd

Jpy H4
this is my chart of USD/JPY,H4
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hefeiddd

This was the post that I left everyone with before I took off for Christmas. It looks like wave 1 of larger 5 is close to complete. The pair has reached a former congestion zone along with round number resistance in 1.4700. I am exiting the long and will be looking to get back in on the wave 2 setback.Attached Images