一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

USDJPY rollover
Hmmmm... Well so much for my call on the euro.. for now anyway... However.. the yen looks to have rolled over nicely through trend line support, I'm currently short usdjpy from 112.95.... I'm not even going to label this chart... i feel its too much of a mess still.... but the oscillators look very promising to the short side at the moment




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hefeiddd

Anyone Have A Long Term EurGbp Count ??
Hey I was just wondering if anyone here has a long term count for EURGBP ???? This recent upward move in the pair caught my attention.... From looking at the monthly, the best guest I can get is that we are currently in a large "B" Wave that can end before or after the 1995 high... Little help please .. anyone... thanks guys !




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hefeiddd

This is what Im keeping an eye on for now. Im not one for trading off of patterns that are not Elliot Wave but this head and shoulders pattern is too clear to ignore. Besides, it corresponds with a possible EW count which adds to its validity. Gbp/Jpy in my opinion is about to take a huge fall for a wave iii of 3. Added to the mix is a weakening Pound as well as a possible Yen reversal that may have occurred last night so I do believe the vast unending fall is about to begin. Keep an eye out. We are presently sitting BELOW what I deem to be the neckline (red line). A drop below 223 confirms this count in my opinion.
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Hey Brad,
Heres my primary count for Usd/Jpy. I believe wave ii of III of 3 has just ended and has taken the pattern of a double zigzag. Get ready for iii of III of 3!!! I agree with the momentum indicators your speak of.
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hefeiddd

USDJPY bearish alternate
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hefeiddd

Hello , Justify

Here is the Euro /Usd pair from Friday's trading ..............
Price is now getting exhausted .............

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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad


Here is todays shorterm wave-count
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hefeiddd

EURCAD Short Term
Last Friday Jamie posted a chart of the rally and correction that started on 06Nov2007. There is an impulse move an a flat correction that is almost complete. Price is currently carving out wave four of wave 'C' of that correction. Right now, wave three of 'C' of wave four is moving higher. So an opportunity for a short term trade should present itself in the next day or so in the form of shorting wave five of 'C' of the large correction.

The large wave three that is coming up will be a great trade too as it may be in excess of 2500 points or so.

Happy New Year! I hope everybody had a profitable year in 2007 and will have an even better one in 2008. Happy Trading!
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hefeiddd

I need some opinions on the long trm EURJPY count... Here's a long term chart of EURJPY... Price action since the 1979 looks like a diagonal triangle and completed in 2000. Since then price is messy, but it looks like we are in a wave 3 up right now.... If this count is correct, a multi year target will be around the 350.00 area... Great thing is,,,, This pair is still a carry trade I will look to enter long on a daily close above 169.00

Lets hear what you think people !



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hefeiddd

EURCHF Long Term
Hmmmm.. It appears the same wave pattern I saw in EURJPY is also at work in EURCHF...

Toss me a bone here... anyone... lol

Jaime can we see your long term count on the EURCHF aswell

Thanks!



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hefeiddd

My current Euro Outlook This is a triangle trick I learned from elliot wave international. Plotted on the EURUSD Weekly Chart.
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hefeiddd

EURUSD DAILY - Heading South
It's coming down to crunch time Jamie ... lol I posted a short term count for EUR/USD previously looking for a corrective rally. It didnot take the form I had drawn, and I have relabelled my count accordingly to new price action. However a correction does look to have completed as an expanded flat. I would like to note for beginners that in forex, expanded flat corrections are common I believe the rally that just completed leaves us in a Wave 3 Down ! I can clearly count 7 waves down in the "B" Wave (thus corrective), and the "C" Wave clearly ended right at the origin of Wave "A", meeting the criteria for an expanded flat. Aswell I would like to note the thrust downwards from 1.4745 just created a peircing pattern on the Daily Chart. When the market re-opens in the new year I will look to get short with an initial target of 137.00. (137.00 is the 38.2 FIB level of the entire rally from 1.1640). I believe the Euro has topped out at 1.4966 and is due south ! For those in agreement with Jaime's current count, just be careful ! Keep your stops tight if you're going to buy anywhere before 1.4310. I couldn't imagine buying this pair at all at the moment.. A push through 1.4310 enhances the bearish potential.....
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hefeiddd

My patience has been growing thin waiting for AUD/NZD to break higher since the low, but today the pair has finally broken higher leaving a peircing pattern on the Daily... I am currently long this pair from 1.1235 from weeks ago Lov'in It !



I'm outta here... Happy New Years Everyone....Attached Images

hefeiddd

oh yes Brad ..... can see it much better now

its small enough for all to see now ............ thanx alot !

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The Euro got slammed today ..............
That Euro was extremely over-bought and got what was cominmg to it today
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hefeiddd

Us Recession will be confirmed in Euro Prices ............

Let us not clear the multi-year highs that were made in 2007 in the Euro ,
or we are in trouble here in the US .........

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This is also an election year
the Us Dollar rarely slumps during recession years , ,,,,,,,,,,,

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hefeiddd

It was posted in here earlier this month for all in here to see---- NO HINDSITE !

Price today has now pushed down into the End of a Wave 5 Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usd/Yen

Coming Soon to a theater near you ? ............

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hefeiddd

EUR/USD Clear as a Bell
The long and the short term in EUR/USD are performing just as expected. On the long term, the rally that began 12June2007 is very clearly an impulsive move and is currently working higher in wave five. Looking at the chart below you can see that wave two was a complex correction and wave four was a simple correction. That follows the Elliott Wave concept in the way of alternation. If wave two is simple then wave four should be complex and vice versa. That concept plays out perfectly here. Wave three extended very nicely in five waves and ended just a frogs hair above the 261.8% Fib Extension. And now here we are at the start of the new year as price is extending higher in large wave five. The large wave five began right on the 38.2% Fib Retracement of wave three; as is usually the case according to Elliott Wave concepts.

Looking to the short term now, wave one of (v) is complete and the wave two retracement is in play now. Currently price is being supported by the 38.2% Fib Retracement of wave one, so we should consolidate for a bit and then see price drop down to the 50.0% Fib Retacement of wave one; again as it usually does according to Elliott Wave rules. The way that waves one and two are forming, will also cause an inverse head and shoulders pattern which is a very typical formation when wave five begins.

Now for a trade setup: I'm looking to buy the 50.0% Fib Retracement of wave one which is at 1.4527. Stop Loss will be just below wave one at around 1.4300. The target for the trade will be the 161.8% Fib Extension of wave one which is 703 points.

As far as fundamentals go, the weaker US Dollar is keeping our economy afloat because foreign companies and buyers can get US goods at very cheap prices. The Fed has pretty much given the go-ahead for the USD to continue to go down.

So with technicals and fundamentals aligned, all there is to do is manage your EUR/USD longs and watch your bank account grow. -Happy Trading.
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hefeiddd

Hello Everyone,
i have the same count on EUR/USD however my chart reflects that we r in W4 with abc formation and thus euro is to slump to 1.3877 to print wave C/4. The problem about EW as u all know is that it is very subjective and we can all count the same pair/chart in different ways; however, it is one of the best methods in trading imo.
Anyway my chart is attached and time will tell.
P.S a rise above 1.4750 will void my count.
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hefeiddd

Here looking at that Guppy ,again

Usd/Gby

we may be looking at an End of a Wave 3 from this perspective

- Price is extremely oversold as you already know .
Sellers have been having a party with this market lately


Who among us will pick the exact bottom ?

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hefeiddd

ok , Justy 10125

I must say , your charts are impressive - really !

-but in this game of trading
It is truly a battle between the Bulls and the Bears
There is always a Bullish Outlook
and
There is always a Bearish Outlook

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Just always keep in mind
that what makes a market place is a Difference of Opinion

the main reason why traders should come in to a forum is to see opinions ,
even if they are different to what they think is happening in the marketplace .

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With that said ,

Here is a thinking for the Usd /Yen ( Longer - Term )

There appears to be " Double Bottom " that has occurred ......


It is only a Probability , .............It is not Cast in Stone !
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If you don't believe in this observation , It's ok

Step up to the Plate :

Just post you chart and state your case !
Time will then tell All ........
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