一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hi Guys,

What do u think of this bull count for euro? Especially if the current decline ends in 3 waves and the move up breaks 4750.
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hefeiddd

congratulation market,bungee jumping better but just FROM over 200 m heigh!!!!!!!!Attached Images

hefeiddd

Anyone See This Same Count In CAD/JPY ??? I think this count looks pretty good !




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hefeiddd

Eurusd
Hi.

Looking at the wave 2 of the same degree for this wave 4, I would say that it was a sideways expanding corrective wave. And by the rule of alternation, I would expect this wave 4 to be a Zigzag Corrective Wave.

I know most of you have a 3 wave count for the decline from 1.4966 down to 1.4527. In my chart I present a 5 wave count which could lead to a direction where " if wave A is a 5 wave structure, then Wave B is expected to be a Zigzag Wave".

Considering this, I then consider the 1.4750 ascent of EURUSD (which is 50% retracement up of the previous decline) as just part of the Zigzag wave up for this wave B. 50% retracement is about the minimum that wave B retraces Wave A. But it can be more.

So here I present that EURUSD will continue to decline towards 1.4630 and range within 1.4750 to 1.4630 for a while to create a corrective FLAT or a Triangle sub wave b, before it goes Up to 1.4853 to finish off a C=A of a Zigzag Wave B.

From 1.4853, EURUSD is then expected to come down to 1.4414and Finish the overall Zigzag Wave that this wave 4 is expected to develop.

This may be too presumptious of me to keep looking forward several waves ahead of the current wave location for price. But if you look at the 4hr chart, this is probably what you will also see.

But if price goes lower than 1.4571 which is more than 161.8% zigzag wave projection for this current move down, then I would be more inclined to believe that 1.4750 was the top of the wave B.

EG
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For those who find the FIB lines on my chart disturbing, below is a clean chart without the fib lines.

EG
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hefeiddd

The Fed got to this one :
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These charts also illustrate why it so important have a stop loss in placeAttached Images

hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd

Here is the short-term picture that may be occurring going into tomorrow's USA trading session

This is only a Probability !................It is Not Cast in Stone........
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Gbp/Usd -

Well Jamie , Here we are this morning

Price Action has rallied into the " End of Wave B "

Targets are reached today ! ..... Gain of a whopping 115 pips ! ..........
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Time to go play Golf !....................No ,maybe Bungee Jumping ?
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hefeiddd

In the case of the decline from 1.4966, I think that we both agree that the decline is the first leg in a 3 leg correction (A). We have labeled the small degree waves differently but to be honest I wouldn't worry about it. From a trading perspective, that does not matter.

But, I'll clarify what it is I think you are asking. The way I see it...there are 2 3 wave movements connected by an X wave (circled). Why I went with this was because the decline from 1.4908-1.4620 does not count well as a 5 (which would be the 3rd wave if it was indeed an impulse). That does not mean that other counts are wrong though. There are always multiple counts and in this case, many of the counts point in the same direction so probability of us being right in the end is high. Does that help?Attached Images

hefeiddd

still donot think b was finished.......Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey guys, I see great opportunity to go long the Aud/Nzd. Price has retraced to nearly 78.6 % level. we also have 5 waves up on the minor degree.
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Hey Serihito,
That has been my count for a while now and Ive been waiting for that final c of 2 to complete. Aud/Nzd finally looks ready to take off. We did make a new low from my last post but only to come touch the 78.6% retracement of wave 1. If my count is correct, we should make it to beyond wave 1 which is well over 700 pips away. It doesn't get much better than the risk reward on this one. Here is what the 15 min looks like from the bottom:
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hefeiddd

anybody agree.....
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anybody agree.....
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hefeiddd

This is my humble opinion on GBPCHF weekly, if that helps.Attached Images






Audnzd
Jamie,
AUDNZD might actually be even bigger than your analysis.
Don't know if the count is correct, but if you zoom out, it looks like we might be about to start a 3 of a 3.
1 hour to go and we might have a nice hammer candlestick on the daily chart.
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hefeiddd

I do think that X is underway now towards the 61.8 at 13127.07...this morning's intense rally is probably wave b of that rally....although this b wave could make a new high..so be careful. Be right back with NZDJPYAttached Images

hefeiddd

With NZDJPY, the triangle interpretation is still in play but another pattern calls for a rally towards the July high. In fact, if a very large B wave is unfolding from 74.25, then C = A at 97.48 (just below the July high).Attached Images

hefeiddd

Attached is my view on the EURUSD for now.

Wave A down from 1.4966 was shown by Jamie to be in 3 waves which I am now inclined to follow. Since A was in 3 waves, then B is expected to be a Flat, Expanded FLAT or a Triangle.

In initially I was thinking that this Wave B (Purple) would be a triangle. But now I am inclined to believe that it would be a Flat or expanded flat.

Then let us dissect the Purple wave B structure. sub wave A green of this wave B purp[le is again in 3 waves. So I would look for a triangle or a FLAT or expanded flat for the sub wave B Green.

But sub wave B green looks more like an expanded flat now waiting to finish the wave 4 up going to the 38.2% retracement @ 1.4639 or towards the 50% retracement @ 1.4658. Higher than 50% or 1.4658 does not seem possible as this would overlap with the wave 1 down. Sometimes though, it is possible that wave 4 retraces only 23.6% of wave 3 So wave 4 may end @ 1.4616 or before reaching 1.4639 which is the 38.2% retracement of wave 3.

So after this retracement, I am looking at EURUSD coming down again towards 1.4565 which is the 161.8% wave C projection for an expanded flat. If it goes lower than 1.4565, then it exceeds what seems to be the maximum wave C projection of an expaned flat, so this wave count will need to be re assessed if ever.

Then I would look forward to seeing EURUSD rally toward 1.4966 to develp wave C green and complete the Wave B Purple to finish the Wave B of a FLAT corrective wave.

However, there is still that p[ossibility that we may see new highs and still be in a wave B purple of this corrective wave if this develops into an expanded FLAT overall Wave 4.

So for the Waver B purple targets, the following levels would be watched:
1.4966 Previous high
1.5087 @ 127.6%
1.5132 @ 138.2% or maybe still towards
1.5238 @ 161.8% extention

All of the above are assumptions I am making trying to use as many EW tools I think there is available to see or more like preparing myself of possible scenarios EURUSD will probably take.

I do not profess that this is what is going to happen. These are merely assumptions and I welcome any criticism if there is any flaw in my applying EW rules and guidelines in drawing these probabilities.

EG
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Then attached is a clean chart
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hefeiddd

Hey Brad,
Im in agreement with you regarding the monthly count. However, I don't see us making it back up to 114.50 as you may suggest we might. At least not near term. I see a hard decline happening soon, perhaps as early as tonight. As much as Id love to put my primary count to rest, it is still in play. Only a move above 113.23 would put it away once and for all. I myself thought that was going to happen today but it hasn't so we may still be in wave iv of III down. Either way, momentum to the upside has slowed substantially perhpas indicating a top is here or near.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usdjpy
I think the long term elliott wave picture places USDJPY in a Bear Trend that is about to accelerate hard. The count on the monthly seems clear, I think there will be some great shorting opportunities near the top of the real body of last months candle near 114.50 for a move through 79.80 ...

ANY THOUGHTS ANYONE ??




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hefeiddd

Usd/Jpy

Here is a short-term picture that may be occurring

This is only a Probability !................It is Not Cast in Stone........
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Usd/Yen
This is Mid-Term view of what may be occurring :

Price is now fooling around with this 50 % RETRACEMENT LINE ..........
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This is only a Probability !................It is Not Cast in Stone........
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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd

Hmmm............. ?
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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd

Good morning all
Here is the result from last nights post !

(See blue chart above )
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Just look at that !...........End of Wave B
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hefeiddd

I respectfully disagree with you are saying about the Cad/Usd


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So , here is a look the Eur/Usd with my eagle eye as Italm once said .....

This is Serious !...........
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