一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Usd/Yen

Good Morning All ,
Here is the Update from Yesterday's Post :
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Diamond , ............. Wow !

1st target has been reached already
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hefeiddd

I was watching the euro completing almost 50% retracment on yesterday's run up but didn't want to take a position for the wave c up. Better R:R for me is take a short somewhere between 1.4800 to 1.4830 if it gets there. What do you guys think ?
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hefeiddd

The wave C in Kiwi possibility remains as long as price is below .7760. Was this 1 of C and we are in 2 of C now? That 1 is UGLY but 1's usually are.Attached Images

hefeiddd

USDJPY declined in 3 waves and has rallied in 5. The next setback is the opportunity to get long for the next leg. Support should be strong near 110.00 (former 4th wave at 110.11 and the 61.8 is at 110.00 if the rise checks here)
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hefeiddd

Eur Aud also is conforming according too plan. Wave C down should begin shortly. Wave b has made it to the 78.6% of wave a thus far. A good entry with good risk reward would be a breech of the next minor swing low provided the present b high is not taken out before in my opinion.Attached Images








A fall looks eminent for the Eur/Cad as well. wave b has made it to 162% of wave a which I believe to be the max price projection for an expanded flat.
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hefeiddd

Thank you Jamie. That is what I call a constructive criticism.

Hopefully the newly attached chart is clean enough for you guys.

Thank you
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hefeiddd

I was looking for a move higher in euro before down as per my previous count which didn't happen. Instead it went straight down in what I think is wave 5 of bigger wave (a) according to my reajusted count. I still think there is a possibility of move up in wave (b). But that's just me. Anyways a long around 1.4525/35 will be a good R:R.
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hefeiddd

Here is an alternative count for euro.
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hefeiddd

Here is the new EURUSD...towards 1.4800 before a new low to complete correction from 1.4966.
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hefeiddd

Here is the 240 min chart. Guidelines of channeling and time suggest that the correction is at about its midpoint.
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As for oil....I think this is the beginning of larger wave 4. Obviously, we do not know what the form will be...but my guess would be flat or triangle. Still, a decline into at least 70 is probable over the next month
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-28 11:24 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

It seems too silent here!!!!,okay anybody agree with me in oil in the first view i have had.
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hefeiddd

I tell you what David, with the confluence of the trendline / Fibo resistance yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big retracement of the recent advance. As the structure unfolds, we'll be able to pinpoint bearish targets. Still, I think that a decline into congestion near .9700 is quite reasonable. The short term pattern (15 minute chart) shows that an initial 5 wave declining impulse has been retraced and corrected in 3 waves...so a third wave down hard looms.Attached Images

hefeiddd

maybe just one of them...
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hefeiddd

Cable looks like it might be done going down for now. However on higher time frame it still has more room for down movement. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Im thinking my bias for todays nonfarm would be significant usd weakness. Some Usd pairs look like they need to make a new extreme to complete wave patterns (such as Eur/Usd and Usd Jpy) while those that look complete are still in dyer need of a retracement. We have 5 complete waves up on the Usd chf suggesting a retracement larger in time and price that any other during the 5 waves up. It looks like it bottomed but this news today could bring the volatility needed to begin retracing. The Euro on the other hand looks like a new extreme is needed to complete a pattern lasting several months. At the very least, Euro should make one more run up to test the recent high made a few weeks ago. Heres is now my preferred count dating back from mid august.
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My count for the USD/Jpy still stands. Until wave 1 (red) is breeched, I still belive it might be a wave 4 of 3 down. If usd weakness begins today as I think it might, wave 5 of 3 should begin.
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hefeiddd

I'd like to point out that the Dow just hit the 61.8% of its decline. This likely completes the first leg of a 3 leg correction. I am labeling it as W in a W-X-Y (complex). The Dow is entering Wave X then. What are the implications? A declining Dow, likely to at least 13,300 (which is the 38.2 of W) suggests Yen strength. This fits with my expanded flat scenario. Best trade might be to sell NZDJPY.

this is an update to the post from 11/28 that can be found on this page http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...13880&page=129
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hefeiddd

The Britsh Pound simply ran into a End of a Wave "B " High.............
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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd
-Now we have the decline .........................

Price finally broke down this week......

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All Charts were all posted here .........Early , for all in here to see .........
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hefeiddd

My dear ellioticians, have you ever thought about relation betwen option implied volatility and e.w? I mean there could be something to do with as both are driven by emotions and fears. In times of fast price moving options writters sell them expensive as they are unsure/scared about where price could go. When these fast moves comes? I think in 3rd, maybe in sharp 2nds and in trend reversals. What do you mean? Could this identify a wave position in wave cascade?
Two charts attached for eurusd and gbpusd, red line is option implied volatility, compared with price and Average True Range (10 days).
Opinions warmly welcomed.

hefeiddd

Seems like triangel in wave B.
What is interesting, whole move equals to the prior correction from top 2,0650.