一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Heheh italm I wasn't referring to anyone specifically regarding euro

Here is what I am seeing, it is possible we have actually completed the corrective move and next target maybe 1.5 even a bit more. This is certainly a very bullish count.

An alternate count has wave 3 ending where I have labelled here as wave 5, and wave 4 is developing/developed.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

I am going to focus attention on the EURUSD since it seems to be of interest to many this morning.

The rally to 1.4967 is just wave 3 in the 5 wave bull cycle from 1.3261. This 4th wave should reach at least the former 4th at 1.4520 and perhaps lower. As for time, this could take a while. Wave 2 of the same degree took 18 trading days. Wave 4 would take 18 trading days if it ended on December 18. We obviously do not know what kind of correction this going to be but my best guess is that wave A of the correction is underway now and will continue until about 1.4700 until a bounce of some sort in wave B.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

For those that are watching the Dow, here is the count. There are 5 waves down therefore, in all probability, the bull market is over. Expect wave 2 of this new 5 down to end in 4-6 weeks near 13635. Wave 2 is likely to prove sharp (it already is)...this is probably going to be a zigzag.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Large wave B can not exceed wave A by 161.8%. The max is 1.382. This is my longer term count. There may be a ways to go (1.5600 is a longer term objective). In Elliott, one of the best ways to know where you are in the structure is by finding a 3. Obviously, the recent rally is a 3 (a iii of 3 of III).

While upside remains, what is left is a bunch of 4's and 5's, so things are likely to be choppy. This reminds me of 2003/2004 when so many Elliotticians were calling for tops from 1.1000 to 1.3500.Attached Images

hefeiddd

The cable is validating my count so far. IF that's the end of wave b then we should see wave c down to about 2.0031 (wave c equal to wave a). Although my count is diffrent from Jamie's I believe we are on the right track for a move south.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Jamie re your count on the Dow, I think there is a significant probability that the latest downtrend was wave c of a flat that started in July. If it's a flat it could still be wave A of a larger flat, but I think this should be considered, because the implication would be for a much larger rally, even as an A-B-C wave B, than a wave 2 of a bear market would imply.

Also, though I don't really think the bear is over, it is possible that this whole move is over.

2 reasons I like the flat also are that, in my opinion, the rise in Dow and S&P counts best as a 3, and the leg down since October is shaped in a wedge and its 1 and 5 internals are pretty ugly if we want to count them as impulses. 3 is better but not perfect.

The rise out of that wedge since yesterday is also consistent with ending diagonal patterns imo.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey Doc,
I still tink we might be in wave iv of 3 or C for the Usd/Jpy. Im looking for a short near 11050 to 111.50. So I agree with your 111.35 area. Although Jamies count could be right as well but I still think we might make one more low before a larger retracement.Attached Images










Jamie,
That is a very interesting metod in determine momentum. I however like to use stochastics. We have the monthly stochatics in extreme over bought zone, the weekly in over bought plus fast line below slow line, and daily over bought fastline below slowline as well. This indiactes extreme bearishness in my book. While Ill agree with you it does NOT constitue a reversal i itself, but in combination with a EW count as well as a very relevent external Fib level, chances are much higher of a reversal at this juncture.
Attached Images

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-28 08:30 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

This is a chart of the EURUSD (weekly). This is programmed so that the bars are painted blue when RSI is above 60 and red when RSI is below 40. When the bars are black, RSI is between 40 and 60. When RSI is above 60, I consider momentum up. When RSI is below 40, I consider momentum down. One could say that the EURUSD has been 'overbought' for a couple years. Don't get me wrong. I do think that the EURUSD is due for a sizeable correction....but to say that momentum is down is untrue.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Given the 5 in the USDCAD and the DEEP retrace, risk certainly favors bears at this point.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here is some Dow analysis since the stock market unfolds in the cleanest waves (in my opinion) and becaue everything is moving together right now. After 10:30, a small 4th wave will be in its 3rd hour. Wave ii of the same degree took 3 hours. The Dow is approaching fibo support as well. I am looking for a bottom in the Dow as well as JPY pairs in the 10:30-11:30 window (these are eastern US times by the way)
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gbpusd
Hello Jamie,
how u doing, i jus got a question for you if u can anylisis if for me:
i made a early entry in the GBPUSD in the morning 2.0700 on a buy, now i'm having diffculties because i didn't make a stoplimit so be the current pivot 2.0610 do u think i should make a stoploss on the support line 2.0625 or do u see a short term change
message bak thanks
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi boys, I tried to wear unconventional glasses. Wave 4 meant to be triangle. I just couldn´t imagine where EUR should rise if in 3rd of 3rd (according Jamie´s count). Now I would await deep iv.

hefeiddd

Reversal?
Hi Jamie, I usually do EW in my studies of the market but in doing so ran into this discovery, could you please look at it and let me know what you think. Anyone else feel free to chime in also. Thanks in advance!

hefeiddd

This is certainly interesting. It does indeed make sense that when RSI penetrates 75, that the EURUSD would be due for a large correction. RSI at that level (especially on a daily), indicates extreme optimism and that a pullback at the least is due. If we calculate a 500 pip decline from 1.4966, then we'd be at 1.4466 (fairly close to the 1.4520 support level). The blue bars on this chart represent when RSI was above 75. However, I do not have RSI above 75 right now, although it is divergent.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here is a monthly of AUDUSD. An 8 wave cycle might be close to complete from the early 1970's. Objectives are 96-98. Might we need one more push to complete wave 5 of C? If so, then look in the 96-98 area for a top. Eventually, price could all the way back to test .4775...this is obviously a very long ways off but it is interesting to look at now.

As for USDJPY. I do expect a larger setback, as I mentioned this morning.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey guys, what do you think of the euro right now ? Up from here to complete wave b
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Im looking for the Usd/Jpy to make 1 final low beginning very soon.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

I am not much of a candle person, but they can be useful on longer term charts I think. Anyway, today is the last day of the month and the eurusd monthly candle going to look like this....that is one long and ugly wick
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi Guys,

Just wondering if this bullish alternate on euro makes any sense?
Attached Images

hefeiddd