一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Here is the Canadian Dollar Update for today
( We had a another spike overnight )
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hefeiddd

Here is the Euro ............Looking for a " Wave 3 Low "
(Price Action )
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There is some over-head resistance at 4650 ............

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Price Entry now triggered
Price Entry........... 4620 Limit
Protective Stop .........4646
Targets ........ See charts below

( Risk....26 pips )
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Only a Probability !................ Not Cast in Stone !...........
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK…...................The Purpose of these charts is to point out significant
highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement Lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective.
This information is for Educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations.
-All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility .
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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd

Update :
Price crashed down to entry of 0498 ...... Overnight !
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( Price now appears to be declining into a Typical Wave C Low )
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hefeiddd

Here's my count for the GBPUSD.
Does it make sense ?
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hefeiddd

Heads up guys,
Momentum on the pound looks to be turning down. Heres an update of my chart this morning. We may be approaching iii of III of 3. Obviously for my count to be correct, we have to stay below wave c (yellow) 2.0504.Attached Images








Hey guys,
With all this weakness in the Euro and Pound, I was curious to see which was weaker. I decided to look at the Eur/Gbp. Here's what jumped out. Wave 3 or C is almost complete. If it is a C, we could be looking at a decline lasting months.
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hefeiddd

Heads up guys. This afternoon could be nasty for the marktes in general! Hears an update for the Pound with my count.
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I think thats a dangerous assumption to make. Especially when you use the word "definately". My price target for the Pound is a minimum of 1.9800. This is my.count so far.
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True that my friend. However, for some reason, its just a problem going against the Usd/Cad. Ive been short the Cad/Jpy for a while now. Don't ask me why. Im very bearish the Cad right now. I can't find one currency that is not killing the Cad or will continue to do so for the a while. My poor currency. Oh well, cest la vie!

Here's an update for my Cad/Jpy! (oh yeah, thats why...OUCH!)
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hefeiddd

Eurcad
The EURCAD long term chart looks very bullish with a 5 waves uptrend.
I cannot sequence the correction, could someone help ? There's one more leg missing to complete a 5 wave down for the C wave.

The latest move up, is clearly impulsive but i am not sure if it means the uptrend has resumed or if we are still correcting.

Any idea ?
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hefeiddd

EURJPY is at a real interesting juncture (with that...probably all of the yen crosses). The decline from 167.64 can be counted better as a 3 than a 5 and the advance from 158.68-164.21 (which ran into the 61.8) can be counted as a 5. However, the decline we just had can be counted as a 5. Does anyone have thoughts on the EURJPY?

Longer term, I do expect this thing to come to 130.00 but the short term counts are not very clear to me.
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hefeiddd

Serhito....
Here is a Longer-Term chart wave-count of the Usd/Cad
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Just another point if view ........... Not cast in Stone !

Price could be bouncing out of this " Wave 3 Low "
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hefeiddd

Last week I believe, I had a discussion with someone on this forum about wave 4s. He stated that wave 4s could NEVER enter the preice territorys of wave 1. I stated that thats not what the rule says. The rule is " The end of wave 4 could never overlap the orthodox end of wave 1" Now why am I bring this up again. Well the way I see it, its the only explanation for the Eur/Jpy.

As I stated last week, if wave 1 has a truncated 5th wave, then wave 4 can enter the price territory of wave 1. It just can't enter the price territory of wave v of 1 because wave v is the "orthodox end of wave 1".

Likewise, if wave 4 is an ABC where wave C has a truncated wave V, then it is only that wave V that cannot enter wave 1 because that wave V of C is "the end of wave 4". With that said, I believe wave IV on the Eur/Jpy has a truncated v of C and thus does not enter wave I territory. Here is my primary count. Please let me know what you guys think.Attached Images








The Pound may be finally about to break. I break below 2.0400 signifies a wave iii of III of 3. Here is an update of yesterday's chart.
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hefeiddd

So far, I beieve the Cad/Jpy will make one more low before a substantial pullback. This is my primary count
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You guys seem to be doing a lot of euros n pounds here

Here's my take on aud/usd. Expecting 5th wave to terminate around 8669.
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hefeiddd

In technical analysis, lines and various geometric figures to be plotted in price charts or in indicator charts are called line studies. Those include the Support/Resistance Lines and Trend Lines described above, along with:
Fibonacci InstrumentsLeonardo Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician born 1170 AD. He is considered to have invented numerical series during his studies of Great Pyramid of Giza. Fibonacci Numbers are a numeric sequence where each next number can be got by adding the last two ones: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc.
These numbers are interrelated with a series of curious correlations. For example, each number in the series is approximately 1.618 times more than the previous one, and each preceding one makes approximately 0.618 of the consequent one.
There are several widespread instruments of technical analysis based on Fibonacci Numbers. The general interpretation principle of these instruments consists in the fact that, when the price approximates to lines built with their help, the changes in trend development should be expected.

• Fibonacci Arcs
• Fibonacci Fan
• Fibonacci Retracement
• Fibonacci Time Zones
• Fibonacci Expansion
• Fibonacci Channel

Gann InstrumentsW.D. Gann (1878-1955) developed a number of unique methods of price chart analysis. He paid the most attention to geometrical angles reflecting the interrelation between the time and the price. Gann believed that certain geometrical figures and angles have specific features to be used for forecasting price dynamics.
Gann considered that there was an ideal ratio between time and price if the price grew or fell at an angle of forty-five degrees to the time axis. This angle is designated as "1х1" and corresponds with unit price increase for each unit time interval.

• Gann Fan
• Gann Line
• Gann Grid

Other analytical instruments There are line studies being largely used in technical analysis and helping to define channels and trend changes. These instrements are:

• Linear Regression Channel
• Equidistant Channel
• Standard Deviation Channel
• Andrews` Pitchfork

[size=-2]Warning: All rights on these materials are reserved by MetaQuotes Software Corp. Copying or reprinting of these materials in whole or in part is prohibited.





An indicator is a result of mathematical calculation, based on prices and/or volume. The figures received are used for forecasting price changes. There is a vast number of elaborated technical indicators. Some of them are presented in MetaTrader 4:

• Accelerator/Decelerator Oscillator — AC
• Accumulation/Distribution — A/D
• Alligator
• Average Directional Movement Index — ADX
• Average True Range — ATR
• Awesome Oscillator — AO
• Bollinger Bands — BB
• Commodity Channel Index — CCI
• DeMarker — DeM
• Elder-rays
• Envelopes
• Force Index — FRC
• Fractals
• Gator Oscillator — Gator
• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
• Market Facilitation Index — BW MFI
• Momentum
• Money Flow Index — MFI
• Moving Average — MA
• Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — MACD
• Moving Average of Oscillator — OsMA
• On Balance Volume — OBV
• Parabolic SAR
• Relative Strength Index — RSI
• Relative Vigor Index — RVI
• Stochastic Oscillator
• Williams’ Percent Range — %R
  

[size=-2]Warning: All rights on these materials are reserved by MetaQuotes Software Corp. Copying or reprinting of these materials in whole or in part is prohibited.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-27 09:04 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Guys,

Come on. This forum is not to prove who's right or wrong on the theory.
It's about sharing your view of the market by looking at elliott wave theory.
Post your chart, ask for advice if you are not sure. Disregard the one you don't agree with, unless the person ask for help.
It is meant to educate the ones that need it, or to get another perspective.

Personally I enjoy all the charts I see. I am starting to get a grip about the rules and guidelines, so i know when a chart does not meet those criterias.

Now back to what we are here for. Is this part of the correction (C wave) or has the market resumed the uptrend. I am asking for advice btw.
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hefeiddd

Serhito, here is what I see with Cable

The decline from 2.0617 is likely wave 1 and the correction since is unfolding as an expanded flat (wave b comes under a). Wave c is underway now and should exceed 2.0504. Possibility is for a test of 2.0542 (61.8). The next leg down would be a 3.

On another note, expanded flats seems to happen a lot in FX. Maybe that is because there is so much leverage that moves tend to be exaggerated (b retracing more than a)
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hefeiddd

Here is a chart for that eurusd countAttached Images

hefeiddd

This is what I see ..somewhat long term. Jamie has a longer term count posted somewhere that I agree with 100% I'll post up my short term in awhile.

The buy is the hedge I was talking about earlier that I did. I got out of the short in profit and the long is about break even and I should be able to ride it to profit as well.

For my count to be right, C can not go past the red horizontal line. There was no STRONG B WAVE in (ii), so an overlap would throw my count out the window.

It looks like the 5th is going to be the longest. My reason behind this is because of the long term count and the fact that if my (v) doesn't break a new low then [4] would overlap with [1] and screw my count up.

I'll post a shorter term count sometime today or tomorrow. I'm working on other non trading projects that need to be completed by Monday.

Adrian


EDIT: I forgot to add one other important aspect. There is a trend line from (ii) - current (iv). The reason I am sure that that (iv) has not started because I have price that moves outside my trendline. Therefore more time and/or higher price is needed to correct this trend line.

hefeiddd

Im looking for the possibility of a turn happening very soon for the Yen pairs. Perhaps one more push down beginning this afternoon. I base this on my Cad/Yen count. We already had a deep retracement of a possible wave iv of V down so if it is a wave iv of V, we shouldn't go much higher. A move back to 115 voids this count and I will count this 5 wave decline complete.
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Hey guys,
As bullish as this last rally may have felt, the wave count suggests this last rally to be corrective in the Cad/Jpy. We have 7 waves from the bottom so it wouldn't shock me to make new lows. However, a new high above today,s high is bullish. My stop has been placed above today's high so far.

Have a good week-end.
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hefeiddd

Tell me what you think of this USDCAD wave count
I recently read a report from elliot wave international labelling the current rally in gold as a large "b" wave. And by looking at the very recent price action in gold I would say that rally is done if not very close. Given the high correlation between commodities such as oil and gold I have labelled the USDCAD how I see it. Any suggestions are appreciated





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