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- 2006-7-3
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发表于 2008-4-27 14:29
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Market, your probably right about the comment of 10 ellioticians looking at the same chart and probably not all agreeing on the same count but I can assure you, ALL 10 ellioticians would and should disagree with your your count on the USD/JPY. Your doing it again. I think you need a little more practice counting waves. Your usually dead on with other technical aspects such as rising trend lines, break out points, support and resistance and thats a good skill to have, but your Elliot Wave skills need some work. Again, look at your wave 2 and your wave 4, for your USD/JPY. The timing and breath is totally off. Your wave 4 is a totally different wave on a larger degree and thus cant be count as part of 1 wave. When you count a 1 to 5, your counting 1 wave on a larger degree.
Look Market if you don't believe me, try this and it should help. What you have posted is a daily chart. You count 5 waves down. Fine. That means it should look like 1 full wave on a weekly or a monthly chart. It does not because your wave 2 and 4 are totally off. There not part of the same wave. It looks like 2 separate waves on a weekly chart. Do you understand?
Here is some guidelines regarding wave 2s and 4s that should help you. Please keep them in mind when labeling a count.
1. If wave 2 is an abc correction, wave 4 will usually be a complex correction and vice versa. (alternation guideline) (There is no alternation in you count)
2. Wave 4 is usually between 62% and 162% of the price range of wave 2. Frequently though, it is actually 100% of the price range of wave 2. (Look at the price range of your wave 4 and wave 2)
3.As far as time goes, While it is true that often times wave 4 time will often be longer that wave 2, especially in a complex correction, it should still follow some sort of trend line. Heres a little trick I like to use. I find just putting in a simple 21 day moving average often times does the trick in determining where wave 4 will end near. The retracement from wave 3 extreme often comes back to the 21 day moving average. It may breech it but it will usually come back in a hurry. I posted a chart of the Aud/USD daily that demonstrates this quite well. Notice, wave 4 was an abc patter (wave 2 wasn't). Price went back to the 21 day moving average from the wave 3 extreme for wave a and b of 4. Went right below the 21 day moving average for wave c of 4 which only lasted 1 bar (or 1 day) and came back above it in a hurry. Notice the timing and breath of wave 2 and 4. This is what ellioticians call a perfect impulse wave visually. Easy to spot and all the rules fit in perfectly. Its what our eyes are trained to see as ellioticians. I hope this helps.
P.S Word of caution. NEVER EVER EVER use this trick to determine a wave 4 is over and jump right in to a wave 5 without confirmation and very good risk management. Reason being, while Ive notice this often happens, it doesn't ALWAYS happen. I usually use it to determine where wave 4 has ended, not will end. Thats the difference. Sometimes it stays above 21 average for a long time(in an up trend), sometimes it breeches it, sometimes it stays right below it all the while hugging it, but it usually stays in that area. Always wait for momentum to come back to the side your trying to trade. Don't ever assume wave 4 is over because it came back to the 21 day. When I first noticed this, I would regularly jump into trade pre-maturely. Sometimes the retracement was so deep, that i would take a rather large loss. This is just an indicator to help you count the waves. Nothing more. Momentum is the key. Be patient.Attached Images
Hey Adrian,
While I don't disagree with your analysis of the Cad/Jpy, Im not ready to take on a short term bull stance just yet. Friday's rally had corrective characteristics with over lapping waves (on a smaller degree) as well as going up in 7 waves (so far)(see post 1715 and 1717). However, we have 5 waves down from the top on a larger degree. Truth is Im not cofident with the count right now so I need to stand back. I put my stop above Fridays high because if it was corretive, we have a double zigzag so far. Perhaps we may get an expanded flat for a wave 2 and the rally Friday was just an a of 2. We may make new lows for b of 2. Who knows. I don't like to tell the market what to do. Im taking a simplistic approach. If we make new lows, I will be in buy back mode which means Ill be a little more aggressive with my stop as We will be way over sold. Heres what I think may be happening but its still way too early to tell.
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