一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I think wave 4 for Aussie has been completed, I am not sure but my observation has been that for wave C these days, they don't make 5 waves like we expect, cos most of them are in complex corrections WXY, so 3 waves for wave Y isn't strange. I think most importantly is where the wave ends, we might be aiming for new highs from here especially on Euro, Aussie and Cable. Be careful of potential head and shoulders formation on Aussie though.
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I am not sure where you see the impulse in gold. So far, there are only 3 waves down from the top...this could turn out to be an impulse...but it is not yet.
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hefeiddd

Here is a possible dow count. Either the drop is an A-B-C and is complete or the drop is W of a complex W-X-Y or the drop is A of a triangle or the drop is a series of 1s and 2s. In all of the cases, I expect a fairly big rally. Even in the aggressive bearish count that is 1s and 2s, the 61.8 is not until 13585 (about 200 points from here).Attached Images

hefeiddd

That last Dow chart was an hourly. This is a 15 minute.

Judging from just the rally off of the low...it looks like it is unfolding as an impulse. HOWEVER....it could just be a sharp correction that is almost over, because price is right at the former 4th wave and just below where C would equal A at 13333. If we blow by there, then the Dow probably extends (and maybe quickly) to the 161.8 at 13457 (which also intersects with former lows).
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hefeiddd

how we can recognize,which one is correct???anybody knows??!!




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hefeiddd

Looks like we're in for some big rally on the Dow futures, wave 1 has been cut by potential wave 4 so now we have a correction, but still as Jamie said, a potential triangle.
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Cable is setting up for a BIG rally that is likely to catch everyone by surprise.
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hefeiddd

Eur/Yen is looking really ugly. The expected wave iv actually cut wave i on the fall. Now the rise is impulsive and looking to break to new highs. This would be my best count, a truncated wave v and wave 1 of a new cycle complete? Wave 2 is potentially already complete, and that makes it possible we're in wave i of 3 which does look possible given how sharp it is.
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Think wave 4 still has more to go, trying to catch minor wave iv has always been disastrous for me from experience. 112.49 looks like a possible target for wave 4. But it may take some time.
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Draw the fib from both the start of wave 1 and wave 3. The 112.50 area overlaps, definitely a magnet for prices and strong resistance.
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hefeiddd

Hey Johan
Wave 2s Usually retrace alot more than that. Besides, even if I liked that wave 2 count, I would count the recent decline as a of 2, this incline as being b of 2 (but it looks impulsive as you say), and we would eed a massive decline as a c of 2 to complete wave 2 of that degree.

So far, markets are mixed. I like Jamie's count for the GBP/USD. I actually shorted it at 2.11 so Im keeping an eye on that. Also, as much as the yen pairs are looking bullish right now, the cad/jpy still looks like a wave iv. The recent rally looks very corrective to me so I need to stick to my guns there.Attached Images









Johan.. Wave 4 can't enter price territory of wave 1.

I use neely's method and you're suppose to take the fib lines for the previous wave to find the next wave.

Check mine out

hefeiddd

I hear you. I can't really dispute the rally looking impulsive but this is what I mean when I say the markets are mixed. Look at the 1 min chart on the Gbp/Jpy. (I could just see you all cringe when I mention the 1 min...lol But its still worth a look.) The decline from the top is very impulsive. The retracement looks like a doulbe zizag. I still wouldn't count out the bears for the day. Anything could still happen and we need to let things unfold before declaring victory for the bulls today.
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As much as Jamie's count looks good for the Pound. I'm sticking with my short trade as I have roonm to move if it goes against me. Here is a case for the bearish count. We've also breech the b wave of the correction if my count is correct giving me further confidence. Its actually quite simple from here. Looking at my count, if we go above c, were making new highs, if we go below i (red), were starting a wave iii of 1 down.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
That rally may have been a bear trap. Heres an update of my beloved 1 min chart.
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Hey Adrian,
It stil too early to tell. The only thing that would confirm us being in a wave 3 is a drop below the original 5 wave decline at 2.0524. Right now, all you could do is put a stop where your cun would be invlidated and wait. Let it play out. If this is a wave 3 playing out, then you count is that we are just beinging wave 3. So going to a smaller chart, we have 3 waves down from where you say wave 3 began. This could be labeled. An educatd guess makes the 3rd wave down iii of I of 3 or a wave i of III of I of 3.
It can also be an a, b, c down in a bul run.

As you can see. trying to analyse this is way too hard and frustrating. Id put a stop right above II. If it gets hit, reevealuate. Thats all we can do. Make an educated guess and put a stop where your count in no longer valid.
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hefeiddd

Here we go again..........

Price apppears to be Pulling back into an " End of Wave 4 "
as illustrated in yesterdays chart update ..........

Here's Today's Update ..... Usd/Cad...
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hefeiddd

USD/CAD..............

The USD-Canadian Dollar pair is posturing out of Multi-Year -lows .
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Again the technicals are in control here ..........
The foundation was laid down last week from short-covering ......
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Talk about a market breaking out ............ This one is looking like a classic
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hefeiddd

This is a 10 year chart
Gbp/Usd

( Weekly bars) 5 Clear Waves
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hefeiddd

This is also a Longer-Term chart of the Gbp/Usd

There appears to be a massive Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern in play
price has run right into major resistance earlier this week .....
( see Long term blue projection line )

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hefeiddd

Yes, Italm ////////////// understood ...........

(Shorter-Term Gbp/Usd )

The Gbp/Usd took out a 618% line today ............
was this not significant ?

This is the type of line that many long traders would put thier protective stops !

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hefeiddd

Usd/Gbp

Shorter-Term

Todays price decline looks like a and " End of Wave C " from this view...
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- A break below 0300 could lead to lower prices ............
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Pg-2.....................
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hefeiddd

Hey Adian,
Here's my long term count for the Pound. I belive were starting a large C wave down and we should make it below A. I count 15 waves up from A and that is a corrective count which fall well for a B wave. A new high would bring in 17 waves. My count would be invalidated so for now this is it. We've had nothing but a series of 3s since the extreme of wave A.Attached Images








I know my B wave count was not that clear so here is a close up of just the Bwave. If you don't like the numbers, simply replace them with a, b, c, and x, and you will come up with the same thing.
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hefeiddd

I think there may be a large move in the GBP/JPY tonight as I think were rapidly approaching wave III of 3. Heres an update of my 1 min chart I posted early.Only now, its graduated to a 5 min chart.
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Intraday charts would indicate that we should get a pull back soon on the Pound, but not before 1 more break to 2.04 or below for the i of iii of 3 if my count is correct.
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hefeiddd

Heads up guys,
I suspected the this very minor correction in the Pound to be a wave iv of I of III but its gone on far too long. I think were about to get into iii of III of 3. A break below 1.0437 may be the kicker.Attached Images







As far as the Cad/Jpy goes, here is an update of my chart yesterday. The count suggests us to be in a wave V of 1 but by looking at the intra day minor charts, wave V may be extended. We appear to be in wave iii of V which I had a projected target of 113.46. We've already passed that fairly easily but it has retraced back to that level. Is wave iii of V over? Who knows. But I don't think so. One thing I do know suspect is I don't think well get a wave V truncation because wave iii as come down so far. A III extreme (red) was at 112.50. We've already gone as far as 112.88 in wave iii of V so far.
Heres what it looks like to me.
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hefeiddd

Looking at the dollar index, even if we're in a correction, looks like we still need another leg up in a c wave. If it goes too far we may be looking at a reversal of bigger degree.
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I think you nailed the Cad right at the bottom finally Jamie. One thing that I heard was that UBS was panicking and telling customers to cut loss on their Long Cad positions, this happened ages ago before Cad fell they asked customers to cut losses on their Shorts. They do play dirty but it's useful, we might have seen the bottom on Usd/Cad for a while.
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hefeiddd

I have been sticking with the bull count in the EURUSD but wanted to show my alternate because the count is just as good I think. It has us in wave C down...probably towards 1.42/1.43. The possible triangle in wave B is what makes me think that this count could be the correct one. If you are bullish though (and in at a good price), then there is no reason to abondon your position yet.
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