一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I think the yen crosses aren't finished falling. And it seems that if wave iv was complex, it ended with a truncated wave c. This current fall is very impulsive and may go much much further.

Note about chart : Sorry testing this charting software




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hefeiddd

Guess I'm still used to Metatrader, anyone has any other good charting software recommendations?

Bigger picture on Eur/Yen, seems like we're in wave iv of 5.
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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd
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Here's the result .........
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hefeiddd

The GBPJPY fally doesn't look finished yet. The rally from 230.28 needs a push through 241.35 in order to complete 5 waves. I view the completion of that rally as wave C within the rally from 219.30. Potential reversal points are at 244.07 (8/8 high) and (the 78.6% is at 244.35) .
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hefeiddd

Given the impulsive nature of the decline, I still prefer a top in the GBP/JPY as my preimary count. Also, looking at other Yen pairs, tops look undeniable, espicially the AUD/JPY. Still at least your count still leaves gives us an alternative count to look at.Attached Images






As far as the Euro goes, looking at the chart, I prefer to keep things simple for NFP. I know We in a Wave 5. I still like the expanded scenario so thats puts us in a last wave as well on an intraday degree. We also in wave 5 on the degree as well. Still this last wave 5 looks like some sort of ending diagonal is playing out. To me a move below 1.4373 (wave iv blue)means a top is in place.
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can we turn now pleeaase
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hefeiddd

Well once again, a crazy week has transpired. Fortunes were made, fortunes were lost. Goes to show anything can happen and nobody tells the market what to do. Thats y of all trading rules, this I believe is the most important of all and if its not one of your rules, I suggest you make it number 1. ONLY TRADE WHAT YOU CAN SEE NOT WHAT YOU CAN'T. So far, although I sense tops near by, the only confirmed top in my eyes is the Aussie and the Kiwi. The waves are so clear, I dont know why anyone would attempt to trade anything else. Im not touching the Euro, Pound, Cad, Swiss or Yen until I have confirmed tops or bottoms. For me there would be no point. Also, because we have tops in the Aussie and Kiwi, Im sure the other pairs are soon to follow. Pay particular attenion to the Euro. A break below 1.4370 is confirmation in my eyes and once that goes, the other pairs should follow suit. In the meantime, lets take a look at clearer wave patterns.
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Hey Market,
Rimu and I have the same count for the Aussi short-term at least. Only I suspect it to be a major top. Although Rimu is right, until wave 4 of larger degree is breech, this has to be labeled 1 or A. But 5 waves have been completed on several degrees so my bias has to be that a major top is in place.
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hefeiddd

This is my charts set-ups going into next week

My main concern is the whats happening in the Us Dollar ( Usd/Chf)
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Here is a look :
These is my chart set up from Friday before the NFP report came out

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The US Dollar may have a Double Bottom formation in it ...
- Price taking out these lows could lead to an even stronger Gbp/Usd

Keep an eye on this one : Looking to go long at 1605 or higher .........
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hefeiddd

Here is the Chart Update :

( I have Zoomed in so you see the chart better )

On friday before the NFP report came out, There was a Double Bottom
in the US Dollar and the price of the 2 lows were violently taken out !

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Now , we may be at the bottom of a Typical " Wave 5"

There are other wave counts - Yes .................................................. ..........
but this is the one that has my focus at the moment going into Monday's US Session .
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hefeiddd

I found something interesting, 40 trading days cycle for wave 1 and wave 2 to complete. The next 40 trading cycle comes on 7th December, however since wave 3 is fast maybe it won't take that long. 20 days and 24-25 days are the 50% and 61.8% which are next friday and the following week's thursday-friday. I seldom use cycles but this one seems interesting, we'll see how it turns out.
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I did some backtesting and there definitely is something creepy about Usd/Yen. If this is true, Usd/Yen might go into a freefall and maybe find a bottom or a bounce on Friday.
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hefeiddd

This is the 240 min. chart. I posted the exact same chart last week and suggested that the rally wouldn't be complete until a rally through 241.35. This chart suggests that the rally may be straight from current levels (while remaining above 237.09). Watch for 243.48/244.29 for a reversal if we get there.
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hefeiddd

Im looking for the big reversal in the Aussie to happen tonight. I know theres a AUD rate decision. Perhaps that will cause the volatility need and will be the catalyst. A new high will obviously negate the top but we'd still be in a wave 5 of larger degree so anything can happen soon.Attached Images






Hey guys
Heres the way Elliotwave has always worked well for me. Its actually quite simple. Were the ones that make it hard. When ever I tell the market what it will do based on what I see, I tend to lose. But when I wait for patterns to be complete, Im very well rewarded. It dont get any easier than that. Doesn't matter what the Feds do, doesn't matter how much oil is in the ground, or the war in the middle east. It doesn't even matter what the RSI is saying or where the moving averages are headed. All that matters is, IS THE PATTERN COMPLETE!

With that in mind, Id keep an eye on the markets tonight, especially the Yen pairs. The Euro Yen has just completed wave v of 5. Unless wave 5 ends up being an extended wave, were about to plunge. Obviously a top is not confirmed until wave 4 is broken. For those conservative traders, you could wait for wave 4 to be breech, then the pullback. For those risk takers out there, a break below 166.23 is the initial signal that were are in the early stages of 1 or a down.
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hefeiddd

Head up on the Aud/jpy, although my Aussie trade didn't work out, my aud/Jpy trade looks to be still in tact. We appear to have stalled at the 78.6 % of wave 1 down. Given the possiblility of the Yen pairs topping tonight (see post # 1413), my preferred count for the Aussie Yen is this.
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Hey guys,
My count for the Aussie has been invalidated. My stance is now neutral. This is my new count for the Aussie.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys
Heres a follow-up to the Eur/JPY chart I put up before. (#1413). Heres a chart if the internals of wave v of 5. It appears we may have completed 5 waves on several degrees.
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hefeiddd

Heres is an update on the Aud/NZD for those who are interested.
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I couldn't agree with Jamie more. 5 wave patterns have been completed on several degrees. We also have confirmation of a top on an intra day degree at least.
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hefeiddd

Intra day, I expect a sharp move down to begin soon. The only question is (if that does happen of couse) will it be a wave c of B or a 1 of 3 down. Pay atten to this next structure. If we make a new low in a 5 wave down move from 122.38, that would be a 1 of 3 down. Then you could trade the retracement. If however, the next move is a 3 waver form 122.38, expect a deeper retracement.
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hefeiddd

CADJPY....240 minute chart

You can see why I think the pair will get to 116.00ish at least. However, be patient because a larger upward correction is very possible...the 61.8% is at 123.19.
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hefeiddd

Question for everybody. Looking at GBPCHF

During a correction, what are the signs you look for to confirm the correction is complete. On the chart attached, how do you know that the move at the arrow was not an impulsive move as the beginning of wave 3.
Also, when do you have a true confirmation that the whole correction is over ? Is it once you break above the top of 1 ?

Thanks for your help.
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Italm,

Thanks for taking the time to explain. I have been enjoying this forum a lot because i have learnt so much in the past couple of months.

If i understand correctly, i could have been tricked by the breach of the upper green line (top of b wave), thinking that i am in 3 where actually it was X. However my stop would be below the lower green line, so i would still be in. Correct ?

Thanks
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hefeiddd

Hey guys, were at a crossroads on the Cad/Jpy. Will we make a wave iv or are be going back up for a deep retracment.Attached Images








Hey guys,
A new low below wave 1 would put us in a I of 3 down at which point I expect a retracement. However, a move back above 121 without making a new low suggest this to be a c of B move and we could expect a larger retracement.
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hefeiddd

Can anyone fill in the blank please.
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I think thats what were waiting to find out...lol. It could also be this. We need a break below 119.34 to confirm the bearish count. A break above 120.65 confirms the short term bullish count.
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Now I think we can declare this move a 5 wave down move. My primary count is a I of 3 down. I expect a retracement this evening.
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Heads up guys. Tommorrow could be interesting day for the dollar pairs. The Euro did not make a new high today but the Pound did. The Pound is also looking awefully toppish. The Cad looks like it bottmmed. The Aussie and Kiwi also looked like theyve topped. What do you guys think of this chart?
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hefeiddd

How about this ?Attached Images