一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hey Johan,
As I stated, wave ii looks impulsive but could still be labeled as 3 waves down, In fact, I originally thought it was a 3 wave down move not a 5 wave down (see post # 1157).Attached Images







Hey guys, for those that want to take a brake from from the majors, from the corner of my eye, Im glancing at the Aussi Kiwi. We may be about to start a c wave down which could bring us bak to the 1.1350 area which is the 61.8 % of the origianal 5 wave ove up (as well as back to the 200 day moving average). I need to see a break below 1.1890 first though.
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hefeiddd

wats about Swissy...........is it or down
Pls let me known ur views on swissy from guys/gal who r online now............

Thanks


shivaji
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I see 5 waves down on Cable on 15min charts, doesn't sound good for those still bullish, maybe the C wave has started.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-25 09:02 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

The USDCAD decline from .9734 looks like a B wave. The individual legs of the decline are all in 3 waves and the decline itself is in 3 waves. If this is a B wave, then price is likely to exceed .9734 before bearish potential comes to the forefront. There is the possibility that this is a more significant low as well but there is no evidence of a turn yet.
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The entire rally from 1.9651 looks corrective as the waves overlap. This reinforces what I have held for weeks, which is that everything from 2.0654 is a big correction. The 3rd wave (wave c) of the correction is about to begin and should be an impulse (fast decline), so a bearish bias is warranted against 2.0654
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hefeiddd

The USDCHF is setting up for a nice bull move as well. Wave c within an a-b-c decline from 1.1785 may be complete (or close to it) as price is testing the 78.6% of 1.1599-1.1785 at 1.1639.
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hefeiddd

cable:

in a larger picture trying to complete its final fifth wave, which is ending diagonal ; already finished the 1st inner wave and progressing in 2ed corrective wave of 5th ending diagonal....

good luck and profitable trading.




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hefeiddd

I also want to show a chart of EURNZD. I am very long term bullish on this pair but this is an hourly chart...a 3rd wave higher may begin soon...
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hefeiddd

Hey guys, heres how my Aussi/Kiwi trade is shaping up so far. It looks like its setting up for a beautiful bear run. (see post #1217 for the bigger picture)Attached Images






If the move down on the cable was indeed an impulsive one, here is the count that makes the most sense for me.
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hefeiddd

Heads up guys,
The Euro may be playing out the rarest pattern in elliot wave: An expanded ending diagonal. If this is indeed one it is about to end. If you've never seen one before, take a picture cause you never know when youll see it again...lol.
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Heads up guys on the AUD/NZD. It appears wave c of B ended in a diagonal. I fully expect larger C to end near the 1.1350 area.
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hefeiddd

Hi 4x4, my count on Cable is very similar. It means pair is in last wave v of 5 of C of big B leg. Wave v of 5 is developing as ending diagonal and likely truncated fifth. Count is in very corelation with Jamie´s count on EURUSD (at least this fifth - ending diagonal)

hefeiddd

Hi Guys,

This is what i saw, give me comments pls. Thanks. Maybe 5th wave will be on the top.
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hefeiddd

Here is today's update chart......Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here is a Long-term Usd/Gbp Wave -count (Weekly Bars )

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Simple and Clear ..............( No use of WXY letter sequence )

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

See Chart Below
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Gbp/Usd appears to be topping out at the End of a Wave 5
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This is a 10 year chart
Gbp/Usd
( Weekly bars)
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-If you believe that oil is going to $100 a barrel then the
British Pound should push its through this upper blue resistance line

Price is a massive Rising channel formation !

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5 CLEAR WAVES IN PROGRESS
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hefeiddd

I have not been looking at Kiwi's daily charts and now I understand why Jamie is bullish, how could I have missed this obvious one out.
Bullish is the way to go

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The USDJPY pattern is the clearest in my opinion. Expect a 2nd wave to end this week near 115.50/70. This is setting up for a monster sell (in my opinion).
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hefeiddd

If anyone is willing to stand in front of the euro, then now would be a decent entry.
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hefeiddd

Usd/yen
Wave 2 or B is turned in complex wave in form of W (complete),X in process & Y sometime later today.......see below
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hefeiddd

heads up guys,
We just got a confirmed unmistakable move 5 wave move down on the Euro. Unless we get a 7 waver which would be a double zigzag, I do believe this could be the top.
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The AUD/NZD is looking very clear to me. (see post # 1245 for the larger picture).
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Hey guys,
Today should be a slow day as traders anticipate tommorrows rate decision. Im leaning toward a full blown reversal of the dollar pairs and I suspect by the end of the day tommorrow, alot of things should become clear for alot of people, not just ellioticians. I suspeect the Feds won't cut this time around as the markets have been going up since the last cut. This could spark the reversal in the dollar (or at least thats what the media may use as the catalyst...but we all know the dollar pairs are all in wave 5 so we need some sort of pullback soon.) We may not all agree as to the degree of the pull back, but some sort of correction is long over due.

As far as todays trading is concerned, I think Ill take a break and try not to overthink things. SO far, I have a short position on the Aud/NZD that a plan to be in for a little while (unless my stop gets hit of coarse). Im looking for a move back to 1.1350 or so. Watching that thing is like watching paint dry...lol. But, the larger picture is very clear to me, Im fairly confident that were headed lower for now. This is a pair that I feel I could only position trade cause the smaller charts move way too slow.
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hefeiddd

Eur/USd
Well Eur/USd is unfolding in wave V (daigonal) of wave 5 probably...........any thought on it


Shivaji
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-25 12:33 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Itma Expanding Triangle
If Eur/USd is unfolded in Expanding triangle than wave 5 of expanding is finished & down ward moment after that was not clear 5 wave but three wave which shows one more leg up,therefore James count holds true for present Eur/USd unfold.......IMO
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hefeiddd

Given that the rally from 1.4125 does not look 'corrective' like a diagonal should, the EURUSD may be working higher in wave iii of 5...meaning we may have a way to go.

Also, sentiment indicators that I follow such as COT and risk reversal rates are NOT extreme and I have never seen an important top form without these indicators being extreme. It seems crazy but the EURUSD can go much higher. That is another great thing about Elliott....it doesn't just gauge turns but also indicates when the market is likely to extend.
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hefeiddd

Hey Honasona,
Until I see evidence of something different, the Euro is playing out the end stages of an expanded ending diagonal which means if this is the case, once it over, it will fall HARD!

Also, if anyone is interested, I dont know if anyone caught the interview with Pretcher on Bloomberg speaking fundementals. If not, enjoy: http://www.elliottwave.com/mediaroom...x?code=INDBODY
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Just in case anyone is following the AUD/NZD, although we just recently made a new high (which caught me off guard but my stop wasn't hit), we come off that new high rather sharply. The diagonal is still in play and wave 5 of the diagonal looks to be a diagonal in itself. This will provide a much closer to the top entry in case anyone is interested. We appear to have completed a wave iii of the wave v of V diagonal. Once we have wave iv in place, a good entry would be right below that wave iv of smaller degree diagonal.
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