一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Eur/usd This is my EUR/USD chart. The next target is at 1.4242, and it will be more than that. Correct it please? Thank you.
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hefeiddd

The CADJPY might be breaking down in a 3rd wave (or c wave). Even if it is just a c wave, expect the decline to last until at least 117.31, which is where c = a. Under the more bearish scenario, a short term target is 115.56 (161.8% of 1). A traditional chartist will recognize this pattern as a head and shoulders reversal.
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hefeiddd

I like this short term bull count. Risk/reward is very favorable as well. More importantly, the intraday counts look bullish from here. 15 minute is the shortest that I'll usually look at and here is the 15 minute GBPJPY. A rally through 237.01 strengthens the short term bullish bias.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi Guys

Purchased my spanking new bull specs today and this is how I see GBPJPY for the time being. A drop below 235.82 invalidates this count.
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End of the Line Yen!
I not feeling bullish at all reagarding the yen pairs. Reason being the the Usd/Jpy is certain breaking down in an impuslive fashion. I knowits probably due to dollar weekness but the the Euro is in wave iii of 5 so it could top any day now. Im thinking this could be the end of the line for the Yen pairs and a reversal in the dollar pairs as well. Perhaps the G7 meeting will be blamed as the catalyst.
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Heads up guys, we may be about to start a wave iii of 3 on the Gbp/Jpy!
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hefeiddd

hi there another counting???



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hefeiddd

Hello everyone, finally I'm back from my holidays, doesn't seem that I missed much , well first thing I noticed was how Sterling looks to be gaining on cable and Gbp/Jpy. Very clear 3 waves down on Gbp/Jpy that ended at 234.82 for me, that means going long with a stop loss at 234.80 looks good if you are bullish and target the high at 240.66 or 244.27(78.6 retracement) if you're really confident. One can argue that the fall looks like 5 waves but just doesn't look correct to me.
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hefeiddd

This is the same chart that I posted yesterday at dailyfx.com for the currency crosses section. It is a 240 minute chart and given price action recently, it seems like a decent bet that wave iii of 1 of C is underway. If this is the case, then watch out b/c, as we all know, these moves can be vicious.
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Here is a very long term look at the EURCAD on a monthly

It continues to drop but is testing support line that dates to October 2000 (there is a longer term line from 1989 just below). Failure to hold here places the March 2006 low of 1.3493 in jeopardy. Unless that level is broken, we advocate a long term bullish stance against 1.3493. The rally from the October 2000 low to the February 2004 high is in 5 waves and the decline into the March 2006 low is in 3 waves. The up-down sequence since then may be waves 1 and 2 in the next bull cycle.
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hefeiddd

Just a quick look at the GBPJPY...the breakout level of 235.90 seems to be an important pivot still. The chart shows clearly that what was once support is now resistance (at least so far in the short term).




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hefeiddd

Audcad
AUDCAD looks like it might finally come to a change of trend. Let's see if that big hammer stays the way it is.
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hefeiddd

Profitable TradingAttached Files

Charts.pdf (160.9 KB, 84 views)

hefeiddd

Hey guys
This is shaping up to be an exciting week for all traders alike. Weather ur a position trader, or swing trader, I think this week should prove memerable. Tops look to be forming across the baord. Even the Euro seems to be in wave 5 but my trading methodology hasnt yet confirmed any tops there yet. But looking at the other dollar pairs, Yen, Aud,and Kiwi look very topish. I expect the other dollar pairs to follow suit soon given the extreme dollar bearishness. But I need my methodology to confirm a top in Euro before declaring the end. So far, confirmation of a top would be a drop below 1.4143.
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Hey guys, heads up. The Euro may not be crystal clear right now, but the Pound is. Do you see what I see?
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hefeiddd

What I'm worried about is that this call on the reversal is a little early, looking at Euro especially, the supposed 5th wave rally doesn't look like 5 waves to me, so I might think that it is a possible expanding flat developing and we're in a wave c down currently which should bring price to at least 1.4002 area which is the 38.2 retracement of wave 3.
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hefeiddd

I agree with you that the 5th wave is at the very least quite ugly. However, the rules are satisfied and the weight of the evidence suggests that the dollar is due for some sort of rally...and perhaps a significant one (COT data as well as other sentiment indicators is other 'evidence'). The decline today is certainly an impulse so I am looking for a 3 wave setback to get short against the top for an even bigger move down. I will try and post at the most timely points as we go forward. The chart I have attached is a daily.Attached Images

hefeiddd

The USDJPY has either completed 5 waves down from 117.93 or is extending lower. Potential resistance is at 114.60, where c = a and just above the gap open. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a test of this level before New York equity trading ends.
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hefeiddd

A rally through .7430 in the NZDUSD would possibly complete a small a-b-c. A 3rd wave decline would be next. Risk is tight at .7500 and the targets are below .7000. Remember that the larger counts (hourly especially) are bearish.
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hefeiddd

I agree with you regarding the unorthodox look of the 5 wave in the Euro. As I mentioned before, as ellioticians our eyes are trained to look for the perfect wave stuture but they are not always available. Thats why the 3 golden ruls were made. However, I think Jamie is right. Thats y I put mu focus on the Pound last night. The diagonal looked too good for me to focus on anything else. However, now that my confirmation point on the Euro has been brech, this for me anyways would satisfy the count of the wave 5 up.
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Hey guys, I believe were headed for 1 more low on the Euro befor a substantial retracement. I believe were are in a 4 of 1 down. Amove back to 4200 area would be the ideal target for wave 4 (38.2 % of wave 3). One more low would complete a the first impulse wave down so I expect a substantial retracement tomorrow.
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As far as the pound is concerned, the ending diagonal (see post 1144) was broken today. Usually once an ending diagonal is broken, price comes back to touch the lower trend line of that ending diagonal. This goes well with the the wave count I have right now. I believe us the be in wave 4 just as the Euro. Wave 4 should end at 38.2 % of wave 3 right around the 2.0360 area which is right around the lower trend line of this diagonal.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
If today was indeed a top on the dollar pairs, then there may be a great oppertunity on the Aussie still. We may be starting a iii of 3 soon.
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Hey John,
I tend to agree with you. Heres another clue that the dollar weakness may not be over. USD/Cad wave iv is void because we are back into wave i territory. Markets are very mixed. Ill wait for my next play when I see whats going on.
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Adding to what John said, here is the wave count that puts Aussie in wave 5. Wave 4 came to 38.2 % of wave 3. We may be head for 1 more new high. Depending on how deep the retracement is, if a new low is not made, I may go for a long play but the second a new high is made, I'm out of there.
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hefeiddd

Adding to what John said, here is the wave count that puts Aussie in wave 5. Wave 4 came to 38.2 % of wave 3. We may be head for 1 more new high. Depending on how deep the retracement is, if a new low is not made, I may go for a long play but the second a new high is made, I'm out of there.
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I think Jamie may be right. The pound is not making new highs. Heres the bearish outlook for the pound. If this is wave 2, its about to break down into wave 3.
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hefeiddd

heres one way to play the pound. If you decide to short from this top, pay particular attention to wave 1 or A territory. If we get a wave 4 then a new high, chances are, that was not the top yesterday. If we go straight back to wave 1 territory, wave 3 down has begun. Shorting this top would provide superior risk reward. But if you'd rather be certain wait for us to get back to wave 1 at 2.0363 for area to be certain. Either way, if this is an ending diagonal, were headed back down to 1.9649 so we have plenty of room to short.
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If your looking for clues of dollar strength, heres the C top on the kiwi Jamie was talking about. We may have started the break down already.
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hefeiddd

The EURUSD decline looks like a clear 5 wave affair, therefore we are treating 1.4349 as a significant top. The advance has unfolded in a corrective manner as well, probably a double zigzag. The rally has stalled at the 61.8% of the 1.4349-1.4125 at 1.4364 and the 78.6% is potential resistance at 1.4301. We advocate an aggressive bearish stance against 1.4349. As the decline unfolds, we will be better able to determine bearish targets.
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Commentary: Kiwi is in a similar position to the AUDUSD. We maintain that the .7785-.7394 decline was an impulse. This means that at least one more leg lower will take place. The up, down, up scenario that has unfolded since .7394 looks like an a-b-c expanded flat correction. The correction may be complete at .7569 since exceeding .7556 satisfies minimum expectations. See our special report from Friday at NZDUSD Top.
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