一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hey guys,
For this diagonal to be confirmed, we need a break below the b wave of v at 236.81. We may have a double top in place but that will only be proven below 236.14. I would have liked to have gotten an hourly reversal candlestick but we were a hair way from that. We may get a spinning top at the the next hours close but a spinning top just indicates indecision not necessarily a reversal. (you could tell by my indecision...lol)Attached Images







Just getting ready for NFP tomorrow so I'm trying to put together a trading plan. Emotions are running high these days so tomorrow could be a big mover.Better to be prepared than winging it.
Obvious pair to watch is the Euro. I'm torn on this one as Im sure many of you are. Larger picture (weekly) you know my stance is wave 11 so I'm expecting a downturn soon. However, the I don't know if within this last wave, we've completed an extended wave 3 then 4 whereby tomorrow will bring us into wave 5 OR, if wave 5 is completed and as Jamie already point out, tomorrow could bring us into a 3 of 3 down. So without further a due we need to see the Euro with our bull glasses first.

1. The daily closed with a reversal pattern today so thats certainly indication we may be going up tomorrow.
2. We've traced out 7 waves so far a double zigzag may be complete. This came to about 23.6% retracement of extended wave 3.
3. A sharp move upward took place once the double zigzag ended. This could be wave 1 of 5 upward.
4. The move down from the top appears to be trading in a channel which is typical of a correct. If the upper trend line is breech, chance are, this correction will be over. Already wave 6 has been breech today so wave 1of may already be in place followed by an a and then b of (2). Be careful for a sharp move downward (c of 2) before a move up.

A safe bet with very good risk/reward would be to expect a c of 2 down before a sharp move to the upside. If it retraces to about the 61.8% to 78.6 % of wave 1, the go long with a stop right below wave 1. That way if your wrong, it wont be too bad but if your right, your will at least have caught the meat of wave 5 upward.
Given the volatility I expect tomorrow, I may actually put an order to go long at 1.4083 (78.6 % retracement of wave 1) and a stop right below wave 1 at 1.4063. That a risk of 20 pips.
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If it makes a new low, that obviously was not a wave 1 of 5 up but a wave c of II of 3 down. (Tell you the truth, I actually prefer the bull view for tomorrow.) A good plan for the bears, with a good risk reward, would be to short near the upper trend line and keep stops tight (since you know even if your a bull, we at least expect a c of 2 down). If a new low is made, you know your going lower.

The problem with this plan is we don't have a definite stop so it could be dangerous. The price could gap up above that trend line then go lower or it could go down for a d wave, come back up for an e wave, then go down. Either way, we have no definite stop except wave 2 near 1.4200 which is over 70 pis away. I guess if its within your money management rules and your not risking more than you allow yourself too, a stop could be above the wave 2. Either way, Id be cautious with this one.

Have good night everyone!
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hefeiddd

Italm31........my another count
count explian itself..................hope it helps.




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hefeiddd

gpy/yen count
probably we have 5 th of 3 rd wave as daigonal wave ,which is true 80 % time of time.................
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Has anyone notice the Cad move this morning. A very important piece to the puzzle was just added I believe. We may finally be bottoming out. Keep an eye out to Canadian unemployment this morning. It may actually be dismal. (or so thats what the media will blame if the Cad tanks) or if 5 will equal near 100% of wave 1, this may be a 1 of 5. Either way, a break below wave 4 would be the initial signal that we have a multi week to multi month low.
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Euro looks bullish
As far as the Euro goes, up looks much better than down so far. Heres what Im looking for. If that b of 2 gets taken out, we should see price come back to that trend line and thats where Ill go long. That trend line is being test as I write this.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys heres the bear picture. Obvious wave 2 need to be taken out for this to be void.

Good LuckAttached Images







Careful guys,
It could still be a trap. Keep an eye on the big picture.
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Meanwhile, I'm still keeping an eye out for my diagonal set-up on the GBP/JPY. Looking for a 4 hour close reversal candlestick at noon.
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hefeiddd

Looks more clear on the Dollar index with it bouncing off the previous 4th wave of lower degree.
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hefeiddd

Trendline on Euro being tested yet again. Im count this recent incline as a 1 up. Looking to make new highs on the Euro.Attached Images






Notice on the GBP/JPY how price is just hanging out at the upper trend line of the ending diagonal. RSI is in line with this count so far.
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hefeiddd

usd/cad 1' :

hefeiddd

There are still a series of 4th and 5th waves that need to unfold before we should mention buy and USDCAD in the same sentence. It is getting close though. Next week is going to be bullish USDCAD week.
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hefeiddd

thx jamie

you're right, we'll surely see new lows on USD/CAD next week to complete this final wave,

Then I'll try to identify as soon as posible when the trend will become bull, after a clear 12345 up and abc down ...

have a nice weekend all !

PS : here's the gbp/jpy count i follow since B wave, Hourly chart :

hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Im looking for short-term Assie weekness lasting perhaps the week. Every Aussi pair looks like some sort of short term correction is due.
Heres a look at the Aud/Usd.
1. It appears wave 3 has just traced out 5 wave.
2. Wave 3 has made it to the 9000 level which is 2 times wave 1. (common fib level for wave 3s is 1.618 to 2.618 wave 1)
3. RSI is in line with this count.
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The AudJpy, although looks like further gains are possible, we are in dyer need for a wave iv of smaller degree at the very least.
1. It appears wave 3 has traced out 3 waves it itself.
2. wave iii of 3 has made it to 105.2 which is 2.262 of wave i of 3.
3 RSI is in line with this count as well.
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hefeiddd

Of all the Assie pairs, I think Ill be watching at the Aud/Nzd the the most. Reason being, the other 2 pairs looking like wave 4s are needed and wave 4s are usually unpredictable. However, the Assie Kiwi looks like a C wave is up and coming. C waves can be like wave 3s.
This C wave may actually go to previous wave 4 which is about 400 pips away at 1.1385. That price is also at the 1.618 of the whole 5 wave incline that began in July which is what were looking for as a large wave 2 degree.

1. It appears we've traced out waves a and b of 2. Looking for wave c of 2 to unfold.
2. b of 2 has retraced to 50 % of wave a at 1.1812. (typical price for wave bs are 50 to 78.6% of wave a)
3. RSI is in line on a smaller chart (15 min).
Looking for signs of a top.
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Here is a close up of the Aud /NZD (4 hour chart).
A break below 1730 is the signal that c of B is over and we've started the larger wave c down.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys
Heads up on the Aud/Nzd. An expanded flat may be playing out. A new low on the day to me indicates wave C has started.Attached Images







Hey guys,
So far as expected, the Aussi seems to be showing some weakness although not against all other pairs yet but I expect that soon. The Aud/USD did stall at the .9000 level I spoke of and has since reversed. We also have 5 waves down on the 15 min chart. Ill be looking for the daily to end with a reversal day.
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However is you count that 3 wave decline as a wave A of a larger correction, then your waiting for a b wave to unfold. B waves are 3 waves. (for the most part anyways).
So if this is a wave B then we would be in the last leg of that B wave. In essence we would be in a c of B. now calculating a c wave is sort of like calculating a wave 3 except often times, c waves can also be 100% of wave A.
Wave A is 1045 pips, then c is 1045 pips.
Price target would be 165. 59.
Today we made it as high as 165.82.
If this a B wave, I would expect it should be at or near completion. Id be looking for a reversal condlestick this evening. Then reacess.

I hope this helps.
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hefeiddd

Here is why I remain bullish on Cable at least near term. The short term wave structure favors the upside. Aggressive short term traders should favor the upside against 2.0301 (although a bottom may be in at 2.0360). Remember that the chart one larger degree has a double zigzag unfolding. Under this interpretation, price should exceed 2.0500 in the next few days before a reversal.

Trade idea:
Long against 2.0300, target 2.0500
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hefeiddd

The Usd/Yen blasted out of an" End of Wave 4 " from Fridays NFP Report
(See chart below )........

2nd Target has now been reached -
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hefeiddd

Audcad
AUDCAD

Jamie,

Do you also expect a pullback between the 2 red lines before it starts to move up again ?

Serge
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hefeiddd

The USDCAD may have turned. This rally can be counted as 5 waves so a decline in 3 to the 61.8% at .9826 presents a pretty good short term opportunity.
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hefeiddd

The AUDUSD is in the exact same position as the USDCAD (inverse though). Look for the completion of a flat correction for a short term bearish opportunity.
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hefeiddd

GBPAUD may work higher from here but I wouldnt be surprised to see a spike to a new low either to more fully complete the decline from 2.3165. 2.2550 should be solid support. Aside from that, the market is likely to be very quiet until 2:00.
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The wave principle is all about pattern recognition. The patters occur because human behavior is patterned. This is one reason that you'll see such clear wave patterns around news release times. The Fed minutes come out at 2:15. I could care less what they say but the crowd is likely to respond in a patterned way. To this point, we can spot an impulse rally in Cable. With the minutes coming out relatively soon, look for the intial reaction to be dollar bullish as wave c of the recent correction completes. This is the opportunity to buy gbpusd against 2.0226...target at 2.0500.
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hefeiddd

Jamie,

Looking at the GBPJPY long term picture. How do you confirm that the correction did not end at IV on my chart ? The only thing i can think of is, the alternative guideline between II and IV.
Looking at your COT report from yesterday, the GBP is at a bottom while the JPY is pretty much at a top. Wouldn't that favor the upside ?
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and here for the shorter term count...
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