一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Usdchf
Anyone have any comments about this long term look at the USDCHF? if this plays out it could be a big one.
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hefeiddd

Here is the chart of the USDJPY...I believe that serhito posted the same chart yesterday (I had probably already left the office). The short term count favors a down, up sequence...likely to 237 and then through 240 before wave C is complete.

In an earlier post, serhito asked why I favor the corrective scenario....

here are my reasons...the gbpjpy breakout is from a triangle, which occur in either 4th waves or B waves. In this case, the triangle is a B wave of an A-B-C. Also, the initial USDJPY rally from 111.59 to 117.12 was in 3 waves...therefore that rally needs to be labeled as wave A and not 1. Could I be wrong....of course! But the evidence as I see it favors the correcive scenario over the impulsive.
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hefeiddd

For the EURUSD

Look to establish bull position near 1.4070/90, against 1.4015, target above 1.4281
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hefeiddd

I agree with your B wave assessment. I am treating the decline from 1.2468 as a terminal thrust from a triangle. It looks like one more low is needed (below 1.1623) before a bottom is in place.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Heads up on the Aussie.
The may be an ending diagonal developing. It could be a v of 3 ending diagonal. It may also be a v of 5 but I don't think so do to the fact the their are still some dollar pairs that don't look like their topping just yet (or bottoming). The diagonal does not look complete yet. It appears we need a wave iv and v for the completion. If this is the case, the start of the diagonal is about .8800 so it could be a quick 200 pip drop.
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hefeiddd

Hi all

good Opportinity to go long, my first target 0.9900

good luck to all.
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hefeiddd

thanks italm31

I am not good in drawings, I have fixed my chart, sorry for inconviniance.

Many thanks.




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hefeiddd

Hey guys
Aussies days at the top may be numbered. Expecting a wave 4 to commence soon and bring us back to the 8750-8800 level.
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There may also be a top in place on the Eur/Jpy with wave 3 of 3 coing up in the near future. A new high has not been made since Thursday evening in early trading. Im looking for prices to go back to the 163 level.
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hefeiddd

Cable looks extremely bullish as long as price is above 2.0318 (line on chart). Watch out for a 3 of 3 rally.
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hefeiddd

I am looking to sell the CAD. Short CADJPY looks very toppish right now. I see a return to at least 118.40 (ending diagonal from there in wave v of 3).
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hefeiddd

This is my analyze chart, but I am not sure if correct. Correct it please? And I still don't know where is the number of target. Thank you.
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hefeiddd

Hey Twkwong,
Its clear your ElliotWave skills need some developing and you are eagar to learn and rightfully so. Elliot wave, in my opinion will give you confidence in market position like no other technique out there. After all, if you want to know where your going, you have to first know where you are. Once your sure of where you are, you then hone in on your entry skills. I recommend learning as much as you can on the subject of Elliot Wave. There are some great books out there. You could even go to elliotwave.com. I believe theres a free video once you sign up for their FREE EWI membership. (But I'm not here to promote their site. Its just where I first got started.)

The Euro/USD looks unclear to me right now so I'm staying clear. If I can't see where I am, I don't touch that pair. You are showing a chart of the 15 min but that does not help much if you don't first know where you are on the daily. (15 min is building the daily).

There may be some sort of truncated 5th going on. Or we may go higher into wave 3 of 5. Who knows. I'm just not sure so I look for other opportunities with other pairs that may be displaying cleaner counts.
Hope this helps.
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hefeiddd

CAD and CL
Looks to me that for the time being, Crude Oil might have reached the end of wave 5, Let's wait until the end of the day for confirmation. Could that be the begining of the turn in CAD. CAD has been really strong this morning.




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hefeiddd

We have had some serious technical issues with dailyfx and the forum site so I apologize for the inconvenience. With the site down, I have not been able to post. I do want to update everyone on where I am right now though regarding the structure of the Yen.

I am focusing on the GBPJPY b/c the chart looks clear to me.
The entire rally from the break of the triangle (a-b-c-d-e) looks complete to me. That means that the decline from the top is likely wave i in a new bear cycle. The decline appears to have unfolded in 5 waves already so look for wave ii to correct the advance. The 61.8% is at 239.12 and I would not be at all surprised to see a rally to that level in the next few days before the next bear leg begins.
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hefeiddd

I'm in agreement with Jamie regarding the top, however, I dont think 5 waves has unfolded yet. A new low would be the signal that 5 waves has unfolded. Looking for wave 5 to end near 236.30 as thats where wave 5 would be equal to wave 1.Attached Images







Now I think its safe to declare the next bear cycle Jamie spoke of.
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Hey guys, watch out for an expended flat situation on the Yen pairs.
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hefeiddd

Expanded flats all over the place. USDJPY and yen crosses, cable, aussie and kiwi. I'll show the GBPJPY chart. The GBPJPY is stalling near a previous reaction high. A top might be in place at 238.60...if so, then watch out when the stock market opens in 30 minutes. As always, keep risk to the point where you are comfortable..especially in these wild markets.
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qingyun

谢谢 您辛苦:*19*:

hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Is this a top on the Gbp/Jpy. I don't know know but the probabilities are definitely high that this is the case.

1. Pattern suggests an expanded flat.
2. Price so far have bounced back from both the 50 % retracement as well as the 200 hour moving average.
3. We have a reversal candlestick on the hourly.
4. 15 min Rsi diverging.
5. Stocks are making new highs but may be running out of steam. Id like to see the next bar on the hourly make a new low without making a new high (I think that goes without saying)

BTW, according to the media, stocks are up due to estimates being beat. However, if stocks close way down as I suspect they might, don't worry, the media is covered. They'll just blame housing stats that came out way down yet again this morning!
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Hey guys,
I know some of you don't pay attention to the 1 min chart but just add it to the list I put forth in my previous post as to why this is a high probability top. (this is one for the Eur/Jpy cause the waves are clearer)
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Based on the expanded flat count on the Gbp/Jpy (or other Yen pairs) we should be in a wave 1 of 3 down. However, as Jamie stated earlier on, don't bet the house on it just yet. There appears to be a glich on the 1 of 3 down. 3 waves have traced out and we appear to be back in wave 1 territory so we may be going higher suggesting an abc rather than a 123. Also wave 2 or b has only retraced 38.2 % of wave 1. Furthermore, we just traced out 5 waves on the smaller charts.

This in no reason to panic if your short. You could take profits and get in later or lower your exposure, or keep stops above todays high and if stopped out, take the loss. This is just a clue that our count may be wrong. Thats it. Don't forget, the larger trend is still up. We need more info to know for sure whats going on.
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Bulls eyed view on Eur/Jpy
Seeing as how the trend is still up on the Yen pairs, a bullish count is most certainly warranted. Hears a bulls eyed view of the up trend for the Eur/Jpy. If this is the case, we are about to make a new and final high.
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hefeiddd

Good day all

another good opportinity to long aussie

my favor one

Many thanks





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