一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

On another note...NZDJPY is at an interesting point.

The decline from 91.42 to 83.61 could be a 3 wave correction of the 76.93-91.42 advance. However, overlap between the 8/27 high at 84.85 and 10/22 low at 83.61 warns of a weak structure and more importantly, suggests that something bearish is brewing. Under the bearish count, price has fallen in a series of 1st and 2nd waves and the decline will accelerate in the next few days. The bearish count is valid as long as price is below 88.34 (red line on chart). A bearish bias is strengthened on a decline below 83.61. Subjectively, we favor the bear count, primarily due to the larger degree trend (large A-B-C from 97.74).
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hefeiddd

Italm...yes...I think taking a chance on cable is worth it. For one, it is a second wave and second waves, as we know, can be very deep. Also, the other pairs are lining up (I think) for a rally that is likely going to surprise the heck out of everyone (except for an elliottician). In that note, check out this chart of the USDCAD. It is of 15 minute closing prices. What a nice looking 5 up this morning and it looks like price is declining in a 3 now. Even if if this is just a correction, it is likely a zigzag and at least one more rally is expected.
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hefeiddd

Heads up on the GBP/USD. The 2 hour just closed with a doji (indecision). Also, an ending diagonal of some sort may be playing out on the micro charts.
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If this a final attempt to break through? Touching the upper trend line of the diagonal.
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According to my charts, we have the minimum for the diagonal to be over. A break below 2.0499 is all that is needed.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
still watching the pound very closely. The recent decline from the top looks corrective but a new high has not been made yet. If we enter into wave 1 territory with making a new high, we are in wave 3 down. Also, notice price try to break or stay above 2.0500 9 times and has not been able to do so yet. I think thats super bearish but only price will tell.
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Meanwhile, the Euro is breaking down quite nicely. If anything at all, it displays confirmation of dollar strength.
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Heads up guys,
I'm counting this as a 1 2 . were about to get iii of 3 territory if this count is right. A break below 1.4206 (which is b of ii)is confirmation if this count.
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hefeiddd

If indeed this is a diagonal at a very small degree, then price will probably test 2.0520 or so. Regardless, I maintain a bearish stance against 2.0547.
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hefeiddd

I am keeping an eye on Kiwi. Remember the longer term count that calls for a big C wave to unfold. The short term count is conforming the longer term bias right now..and risk is tight...above .7601 (or .7785 if willing to take on a bit more risk). The objective is much lower. Is a 3 underway now?
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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd Double Zig Zag
Wave 2 of Eur/usd looks like unfolding into double zig Zag, with 0.746% of wave a of wave 2 probable target at around 1.4300/10



Shivaji,
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Another count on E/U is horizontal triangle
horizontal Triangle wave a,b,c & d finished & wave in proces probable reverse at 1.4265 ..
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hefeiddd

I agree with honasona that Euro is making some triangle, which means it's a wave b and another 5 waves down to complete the zigzag correction which should take prices to around 1.4000.
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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd

Probable Wave count ............
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Only a Probability .................. Not Cast in Stone !
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Usd/Cad

Here is a look at the Canadian Dollar
-Price appears to be poised to bounce out of the End of a " Wave 5 ".............
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hefeiddd

Heads up guys, I just got my confirmation, I believe us to be in a wave 3. If you werent bearish before, you might want to reconsider...lol. (just kidding)

Next target, Id like to see a break below 1.4125 which was the big wave 1 decline that happened Monday. I'm expecting that by tomorrow.
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Well you guys could be right but the reason I dont agree with you is I think that was a wave 2 and we are not still in a b wave. I think were starting a wave iii of 1 of Large C down in the grand super cycle. Triangles don't happen in wave 2s.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
today just played out series of 3 regarding the Euro. Heres another potential count which I must mention cause it adheres to a large move coming sooner than later so its worth a look. We may be in a diagonal c of a smaller degree. We should know relatively soon if tis a valid count.
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Meanwhile, the pound is still having trouble breaking 2.0500. I still believe we are in the fifth wave of the ending diagonal. It may spike up to test recent highs at 2.0550 or so but I dont see it going much more that.
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hefeiddd

Well as bearish as I am about stocks, I have to admit, today's late rally, (AND IT WAS A BIG ONE) caught me off guard. Also, some of the Yen pairs look bearish but I have to admit, Im ready to go long on other Yen pairs. Alot of mixed signals right now. Check out the Cad/Jpy. I mean it almost looks to good not too go long. If this count is right, were making new highs which is currently 400 pips away.
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It appears the Yen pairs maybe turning to make 1 more high. This would complete the 5 wave sequence and the original B-wave scenario some of us adapted would be void. The decline following the final 5 wave advance may last years not months if the 5 wave sequence completes itself. Wave 4 is definitely corrective and has ended at 38.2% of wave 3. The stock indexes are showing similar counts.
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hefeiddd

Look out for the possibility of a iii of 3 scenario coming for the Cad/JPY.
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The pound has test its recent high as expected and came straight down. This could be it for the wave V of the diagonal. A break below 2.0450 is initial signal that this is it.
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hefeiddd

The decline from the top is still unclear. It looks corrective until now but it can be a series of 1 and 2s. Getting in now would provide very good risk reward but I wouldn't risk very much just yet. I want to see a break below 2.0450 before becoming a full blown bear. Its testing 2.0500 yet again.
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hefeiddd

Very intuitive chart Jamie. My count for the the Yen is similar. Im looking for 1 more short rally as well. Fear seems to be the underlying sentiment overwhelming the market right now, especially the yen pairs. Heres a statistic I got from EWI :

"breadth remained negative, down volume ran well ahead of up volume (61% versus 39%, respectively) and total NYSE volume was essentially flat relative to the past several days."

If that doesnt scream fear, I dont know what does. Im not ready to bet the house on going short, but all I know is when the next down move does occur, EVERYONE IS JUMPING IN SO BE READY.

Meanwhile, Im sticking with what looks clear to me as well. The pound seems like it has already topped (see post #1210). The Euro is just about ready. Yesterday, Jamie mentioned the possibilty of an ending diagonal. Well that scenario is playing out beautifully. We had a 3 wave move for wave 1. Wave 2 looked impulsive but it could have been classified as a 3 wave move as well. Wave 3 was a 3 wave move. Now we need a smaller 3 wave move for wave 4 and an even smaller 3 wave move for wave 5.
If indeed this does play out, I will try show a chart with the trend lines attaching waves 2 and 4 so that we can establish a game plan. So far, all we have is a drop below wave 2 indicates the top in place. Once we get our wave 4, I can move up my top confirmation
point.
Im expecting a top by the before the weekend begins.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd
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Serious Resistance
Will Price Break through all this ?
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hefeiddd

Ital a couple points:

I agree with your assesment, CADJPY looks like a potentially good buy. Another one that looks very nice to me is AUDJPY, because, imo, the downwards part of the move was super clear. This reinforces the view that Jamie put forward in his daily that we still need a c wave for wave 2 to finish off.

If you remember Jamie's special report (which seems to have been taken down from the site, I can't find it anymore) on the yen and the dow 2-3 weeks back, he put forward the view that some currencies (CAD, AUD, EUR also if my memory is correct) would make new highs against yen to complete impulses before correcting while the dollar would tank in a 3rd wave against yen. Imo this is what's playing out. We make new impulsive highs on the strong crosses and corrective rallies for the weak one (USD), and somewhere in between (time will tell) for the others.

Obviously this doesn't jive well with a strong dollar view though.

The indices are are in a similar situation I think. Here's my count on SPX, which is the only one that made new lows this morning (vs Monday morning). The way I see it we may be close to the end of a up. Nasdaq 100 made new highs yesterday, which means that what I label as wave 4 on SPX was actually an impulse to new highs in Nasdaq stocks.

Of course don't forget that wave 2s are designed to make you feel like the bull is back.

Spin





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hefeiddd

Cable Unfolding In to daigonal Triangle probably
Wave 1,wave 2 ,wave 3 complete & wave 4 unfolded in to wave A,B & C(blue) & from these wave A & wave B complete, probably wave C in process of which wave a & b complete & wave c(pink) is next leg downward probable target 2.04170& later we will see wave 5 up.......


Shivaji
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hefeiddd

The USDJPY chart is very clear to me. Wave 2 should end near 115.50 or so...maybe in the morning before a collapse.
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For those wishing to play a short term move in early euro hours...check out eurjpy long.

entry around 163.50/60
stop at 163.15
target 165.00
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hefeiddd

I think the ending diagonal count looks the best currently, but still it's weird to label the 5 wave down as wave ii. Worst case it's a C wave in a failed expanded flat because the trend is still towards higher Euro. So we're in wave iii up of the diagonal now which should be a quick run. I think the top can only be found after the Fed cuts rates next week.
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