一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Hey Jamie
I just got what I believe to be a new a new perspectus on the Cad. I think were in a final wave of c large degree B wave in an expanded flat. Wave A was 23.6% of wave 1 which is typical of an expanded flat and wave B is presently 261.8% of wave A. Usually wave B tends to be 161.8% of A in an expanded flat but given the extreme bearishishness of the dollar, I dont think thats unusual. (Just as the Euro thus far traced out 11 waves in a B instead of 3 waves). Anyhow, I think what you have post on your hourly is the final leg (wave v) of c of larger wave B.Attached Images










Hey guys,
Trying to catch the next big one down in the GBP/JPY is like pulling teeth. (I think this is it for the pair at least for a while...see post #931). So this last leg looks to have an extended wave 1. Thats what made it so hard to decipher the waves correctly. As ellioticions, our eyes trained to spot beautiful wave structures where wave 2 retraces most of wave 1, wave 3 is the longest wave, and wave 4 retraces somewhat wave 3 before a wave 5 comes in, then we look to the retracement. However, what makes Elliot Wave so difficult is a lot of the time, what we are trained to see does not happen. Just some of the traps that can happen and often do are extended wave 1(s), complex correction lasting forever (usually camouflaging the first wave 1 break out of the complex correction), truncated fifths, and expanded flats. This is why those 3 rules are so important. Let me demonstrate with this pair.
1. It appears wave 1 is the longest wave which is unorthodox.
2. If this is the case, we just completed wave 3.
3. If this is the case, we need a valid wave 4.
4. Until we get a valid wave 4, my early signal that this leg is finally over would be a breech of wave 1 territory which is 234.55 or so.

We can however use Fibonacci to look for areas of the turning point. Also, because wave 1 is the longest, we can also calculate the price of the length of wave 3 in its entirety. Once wave 5 comes into play, it can not surpass that length in price.
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hefeiddd

We cant eliminate the the possibility that this is not an extended wave 1 but may be extended wave 5 (which is actually quite common in forex). To the naked eye, wave iv appears larger in price and time than wave ii but they in fact are equal in time. (both are 8 hours...see hourly). Also wave ii is a flat and wave iv is an abc correction which means rule of alternation is satisfied. If you go by this count, an early signal for the next leg down would e a break below 235.31 (wave iv of V).Attached Images






Hey guys,
Heads up. Looks like and ending diagonal of larger degree has formed on the CHF/JPY. If this is the case, its going down to 94.87. Break below 98.06 confirms the ending diagonal.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-24 17:37 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

This is what I'm seeing on the Gbp/Yen. After the breakout from consolidation, seems that we're in wave c up, wave 2 is a failed flat but it looks like wave 3 is extended and we've just finished only wave iii of 3. Seems like this week might be long and boring with many ranging for many crosses.
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hefeiddd

My count on Eur/USd
It looks we r finished with wave 3 & wave 4 is under process.............
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hefeiddd

Fork in the road for GBP/JPY
Hey guys,
We at a turning point in the GBP/JPY. We have 5 waves down from the top followed by 7 waves up thus far. A breech below wave 6 without another high made is confirmation of a double zigzag and to prepare for a wave 3 down.
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Heads up guys,
Possible ending diagonal at the 78.6 % retracement of last nights decline on the GBP/JPY.
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hefeiddd

Cable is still bullish as evidenced by the 3 wave decline from 2.0494. Subjectively speaking, I favor the idea that a larger correction is unfolding from 2.0654, maybe a triangle or even a flat. Why? Because all of the other pairs strongly indicate that we are in for at least a few weeks of $ strength (if not more). With this in mind, I am looking for a top and reversal following a break above 2.0494, against 2.0654.
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hefeiddd

The CHFJPY does look complete to me too and the CADJPY might also be ready to fall. The JPY crosses do not all have to turn at the exact same time but it is likely that they will turn within a few days of each other.
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hefeiddd

Hey Jamie,
Duly noted, as I too respect your opinion as well. Id just like to say that when I say heads up, I mean keep an eye out for. Thats all I mean. I don't get in until my count is confirmed to me on a larger chart. Once I get confirmation on BIG charts, I'm still not in, I wait for wave counts on smaller charts to get me in for a better risk reward. I'm not trying to pick a top on a 5 min chart although I could see why one might think I am. I agree with you, that is the stupidest thing someone could do and it is financial suicide. I'm just watch the GBP/JPY cause the rise since the bottom has been overlapping whether on an hourly or a 15 min. Thats consistent with a correction. I don't expect anyone to to get on that. On that note, my diagonal scenario may have just been proven correct but Id like a break below 235.91 to confirm at top. Once I get my confirmation, Ill be looking at the smaller charts to get me into a trade.Attached Images







Just like to show how my diagonal set-up was unfolding...(yes this is a 5 min and Im still looking for a break below 236.08 whic is wave 1 or A down). Please keep in mind, this is borderline scalper set-up and by no means should be used to enter for several day. You could but you'd be gambling. You would need a break below at least 235.89 (preveous wave 6 in the double zigzag and that too would be aggressive!). Once you have that then if you like you could wait to see if 5 wave decline unfolded followed by another abc for better risk reward. That would be my multiple day set-up. As you can see, it takes alot for me to get into a multiple day set-up. What I'm showing here right now just means I'm expecting price to go where the first diagonal started at 235.90 or so. This is a scalp set-up. You have to take charts you see in perspective. If your getting in with a 5 min chart, you obviously are looking at a smaller degree. So you could be in for several mins to maybe an hour or so. If your looking at a 15, you could be in for several hours. If your looking at a 4 hour, you may be looking at several days. (I hope you get my drift). I'm always aware of the degree I'm trading which is why I don't stay in very long. If and when I get my confirmation on a 4 hour chart, I will be in for a longer haul.
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For a multiple day set, heres how I would go about it. It would have been cool had we gotten an ABC after the 5 wave decline from last night (or what I think is a 5 wave decline...some would argue it to be a 3 wave decline...thats what makes it difficult and the reason y its still unclear) but we didnt. It appears like a double zigzag. So now we need a drop below wave 1 or A for confirmation. keep in mind this is a 4 hour chart so what you could do is either get in below that drop or turn to a 15 min and look for 5 waves. It may be over sold so you could get in on a pull back of a 15 min. Thats how I would do it.
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hefeiddd

Hi Guys, with 3 waves down on the H4 it may be possible that the bull run euro will be left intact for now. Being a 4th wave on my count makes it possible that a much complex correction might be forming. Wave 4 of a lesser degree sits around 50% fibo (1.4064) at the moment, could be a potential support for continuation into 5th wave.
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hefeiddd

NZDJPY has stalled at the 61.8%. This is something to watch. I keep thinking that the JPY crosses will continue a bit higher mostly because I still some upside potential for the USDJPY BUT one by one....the JPY crosses appear to be losing steam so I feel like the next big decline will happen soon.

Also, October is historically a bad month for stocks and with the correlation between stocks and the JPY...look for the JPY to gain this month...especially against high yielders like the NZDJPY.
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hefeiddd

Hello everyone. What I am watching closely and I suggest that everyone do the same is the JPY. It is testing the upper end of the range and is FINALLY ready to thrust higher towards 118.00 (I think) in wave C of 2. This will set up one of the best opportunities of the year (selling for wave 3 down...which should eventually test 100). I am coming out with a report later today on dailyfx.com about the Yen.
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hefeiddd

Hi I think Jamie meant that this upmove is wave B of a flat and we will be expecting a 5 wave down for wave C to complete the big correction.

It's pretty hard to label the shorter term chart as everything seems to overlap. But this is how I see it currently, ever since 2.0365, it looks to me that prices were making a triangle and it was completed last week with fast Cable gains. But it seems that Cable needs to make another high to complete the larger B wave.

Note that on the bigger TF I labeled b(red) at the bottom but on the hourly I labeled it much higher, does not make a difference to the big picture, just the counting.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Oppertunity is a knocking on the EUR/NZD
Good stuff Jamie, Ill be looking out for that report. In the mean time, I believe the EUR/NZD is setting up for a beautiful move to the upside. It appears to be in the last leg of a wave v of C of a larger degree. What makes this trade atractive is the diagonal started about 700 pips away so the risk reward would be amazing. Im looking to enter near 1.8550 or so.
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hefeiddd

I see 5 waves up on a 4hr chart for the Dollar Index, but not confirmed with a new low on Euro yet, although Euro came 3 pips to a new low a while ago. But this would probably mean at least another round of dollar strength.
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hefeiddd

This is a count that I think deserves some serious consideration. First, thanks JohanS for pointing out the $ index had already made a 5 down. With that in mind, it is very possible that wave 1 (or a) down ended in a truncated 5th and that wave 2 is over at 1.4201. This places the decline from 1.3201 to now as wave i of 3 so any bounces should be treated as opportunities to get bearish against 1.4201. Risk is well defined. The two declining legs would equal each other at 1.4060 and the more bearish count would likely see a decline below 1.4000.
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hefeiddd

Careful guys,
If your looking counting the recent decline off the Eur/JPY as 1 down and expecting an ABC, watch out for an expanded flat that may be develping because that last wave down looks corrective. It may indeed be a b wave. The GBP/JPY is showing something similar. If this indeed the case, wave 3 down may come early this evening maybe sooner.Attached Images







Careful guys,
If your looking counting the recent decline off the Eur/JPY as 1 down and expecting an ABC, watch out for an expanded flat that may be develping because that last wave down looks corrective. It may indeed be a b wave. The GBP/JPY is showing something similar. If this indeed the case, wave 3 down may come early this evening maybe sooner.
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hefeiddd

Heres a similar look at the GBP/JPY.Attached Images






We have lift off on the Eur/NZD!
Regarding the ending diagonal I put up this morning on the Eur/NZD, it appears the 4 hour closed above the higher trend line. this would be a good place to look for a long.
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Hey guys, my expanded flat setup on the GBP/JPY is looking good so far. We may be entering a iii of 3 now.
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hefeiddd

The Cable rally looks like a double zigzag . Price should rally to a new high soon before a reversal. A drop under 2.0276 would make me flip to bearish.
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hefeiddd

AUDUSD just traced out a clear 5 up very short term. This goes with the longer term trend so there is no reason to fade the Aussie at this point.
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hefeiddd

The end is near?
Hey guys,
Just wanted to point out another possiblilty that may be happenning with the Yen pairs. Yesterdays 3 wave decline leaves the possiblity open for a larger degree ending diagonal. The Cad /Jpy displays this well. Im looking for the CAD/Jpy to make 1 more high above 117 in order to complete a 3 wave move upward for a wave v of C of a diagonal. Then Ill be looking for a top.
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Hey guys,
Heads up. A top may be near for the GBP/JPY if your going by the ending diagonal scenario. We just completed the minimum 3 waves required in a wave v of a diagonal.
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