一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The Dow keeps failing at the 90% retracement, I think it's due time to start the C wave down. Which means a regular flat and a new low in the coming weeks.
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Well of course it can be labeled as W-X-Y, but well just to make it simple, I don't want to label too much. I'm actually counting it as a zigzag correction.
Well I just don't feel bullish right now, if the market keeps going up and makes a new high so be it. Pretty much depends on your bias, if you were bullish you would label the upmove as 1-2-3. Irregardless of the labelling, the direction is the same, the difference is just the depth. And this is the first move up from a correction, doesn't hurt to be cautious and just play 3 waves instead of waiting for 5 waves and let the market surprise you when it decides that it's still correcting.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Im trying to figure out if todays diagonal on the Euro/JPY was a v of 3 or a v of 5. In other words, did it top? To the naked eye it looks like a v of 3 but 9 waves have been made from the 161 bottom which should signifie it was a v of 5.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi all,
would we see thrust upward through trendline and then nothing like big move down this alternate count could be considered . It is meant as complex correction with triangle at the end. Last leg of the triangle could be over (flat) or small triangle could be forming. Similar counts that finnish/ed downward correction could be found on most of jpy crosses.

hefeiddd

The EURUSD is coming into a top. The 5th of the 5th is unfolding as en ending diagonal. This thing is likely to end after a test of the upper diagonal line (closer to 1.4200).Dropping below 1.4111 warrants a bearish bias against the top (currently 1.4165).
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hefeiddd

another counting for euro
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hefeiddd

hefeiddd

Have a safe trip Picolo....

If you have been following my USDCAD count, I am expecting a larger correction in wave iv to 1.1075. I think that wave c of that wave iv is starting now. Risk is just below 1.0000 and the target is about 160 pips higher.
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hefeiddd

Kiwi bears watching as well here. The pair is approaching the 61.8% of .8108-.6639 at .7547, which is a potential reversal point.
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hefeiddd

I think most of us saw this one, we might have a top on Euro already.
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The same 5 waves on Aussie, can't seem to find them on the other crosses yet.
A top on Aussie already?
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
It pretty much seems like we can all pick and choose tops across the board but I will be focussed on 2 pair in particular. The first will be the Euro cause Ive been waiting for it for so freaking long! (I don't think I have to show that beautiful ending diagonal followed by the 5 waver down on the hourly. Jamie showed it this morning). The second will be the the GBP/JPY. It too is displaying a beautiful ending diagonal which we seem to be in the last leg in right now as I write this. I believe this evening should be interesting across the board. The Yen pairs as well as the Usd pairs are all showing signs of tops. It seems the scenario portrait I painted this week about everything topping at the same time may actually happen very soon. It won't be the end of the world, it will just feel like it for a while...just until the big C down happens in the Yen pairs as well as the dollar. I suspect all market may have a mini crash as well (gold, silver, oil, and stocks).
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
Why do I think its the end of the line (big picture) for the GBP/YEN as well? Well I think its pretty evident that a complex correction has been going on for a while with this pair. Its hard to decipher what he heck it was. This is the reason I like to keep things simple. When more than the required amount of waves transpire, I just trade the down legs if I feeling bearish a or the up legs if feeling bullish. (I think you could pretty much guess how Ive been feeling for the last few months...lol). Anyhow, why do I think its he end of the line for this pair as well. Well for one, its a correction so we need a corrective amount of waves...3, 7, or 11. When I cant figure out whats going on, I just count the waves. We got 11 waves since the bottom. Thats all I care about right now. That tells me it may be the end of the line. Just like the Large B wave on the Euro. 11 waves up tells me triple zigzag. Also notice, just as with the Euro (larger degree...see my post #804 or Yellowlion's post #901 ) not only do we have 11 waves, but the waves tend to get shorter NOT NECESSARILY IN PRICE BUT IN TIME toward the end. That signifies that it is a complex correction that is running out of steam.
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hefeiddd

This may be it!
Hey guys heads up. We got the minimum required for the diagonal on the GBP/JPY to be over. Furthermore, the 15 min chart just closed with a reversal candlestick plus it closed below the lower trend line. This could be it. A drop below 234.13 (wave iv of diagonal) is confirmation.
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1 min chart
I know many of you don't like the 1 min chart, but we need it to see whats transpiring on the 15 min chart.
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What are bulls to do?
I know some ellioticians are natural bulls. What I mean by that is they see waves easier in bull markets than in bear markets. I myself see waves much easier in bear markets than bull. (I wonder what that says about me...ouch!) Anyhow, what are they suppose to do when a bear market emerges. Simple. They look for bull markets. For example, the Euro looks like it completed an ending diagonal today. That means ellioticians who prefer looking at bull markets might want to look at the USD/CHF.
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hefeiddd

Hey John,
That was a little weird. The only explanation I have is the diagonal did not end when I thought it did last night. It may have been a truncated 5th. Your b may have been a iv and your 2 may have been the v of the diagonal but your count was my original count as well. Notice with this count, c of 2 came back up to touch the trend line yet again!Attached Images






Perhaps C wasnt over with. It may still come back to touch the trend line again.
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The diagonal we saw yesturday may have been pre-mature on the Euro as I see another possible diagonal count this morning. Is this one it, who knows, but its definately a sign the Euro may be running out of steam.
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hefeiddd

What in the world is going on for Gbp/Yen?
I can count 5 waves down, but I also see that wave 4 is an impulse...
Unless there is some really really small wave a-b for wave 4 somewhere.
Anyone got a clue?
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After seeing 2.0365 broken I think it's possible this upmove goes all the way to at least 2.0593 to complete wave c, possibly an ending diagonal c wave as the moves are overlapping.
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hefeiddd

Also, the USDCAD presents a very low risk long entry right now. If any of you follow my COT analysis, then you know that we are historic extremes in positioning and big turns usually happen at these points.
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hefeiddd

There is little doubt in my mind that the rally from 1.4060 is a diagonal as a 5th wave. BUT, I think now that it is a diagonal in wave v of 3 rather than wave 5. I am looking for a wave 4 to end near 1.4060 (which likely takes all fo next week) and for wave 5 to make yet a new high (maybe 1.4300 or even 1.4400) before reversal potential comes to the forefront.
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hefeiddd

Low risk long opportunity in the USDJPY. Enter now, stop below 114 (113.95 or so), and target is above 117.12 (118.00)
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hefeiddd

Ouch how steep can Euro go?

I think Jamie probably zoom into 15min charts to look for reversal patterns especially on such extreme levels, on not so extreme levels, 1hr charts would be safer.
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hefeiddd

stocks
Here's what I'm seeing in the Nasdaq.
Mimum reversal should be in the 2648 area, which coincides with the beginning of the wave v triangle.

The S&P 500 makes it more difficult to have a bullish (1)-(2)-1 bullish alternative, but it's technically possible I think. Either way this looks like a nice setup to the downside.

Spin

edit: The v label may be only smal wave 3 of v, which means there could be another top before the bigger correction, which would make today's action small wave 4 of v.





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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd
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( Long Term Wave-Count ) 9/28/07
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