一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Serhito, I think we are in extended 5th wave on daily and we're yet to see one more leg higher - wave [5] but not before a correction in wave [4].

But of course I could be wrong. That's way I preffer to stay on 1H and 4H where the picture is more clear. Weekly is different story though. I see complete 4 waves so far , which makes me think we are in 5 of (5).Attached Images

hefeiddd

Thank you italm31

That throwover I was expecting did not happen. Thank you for that insight that led to a foresight that the throwover downwards was unlikely to happen. I am not that well versed into all that goes into forex trading analysis. At this point I am still struggling with learning EW.

And below are the charts that I came up with this weekend. I want to bring this out here and maybe get some comments if this is possible or not. I consider EW Counting as an oppportunity to draw out potential directions of Price in the market.

I am attaching 2 charts to support the view that GBPJPY will see a slight downward move this Asia Monday Open then Develops into an EXTENDED WAVE 5 going up for the minimum @ 238.67

But because GBPJPY is a very volatile pair, IMHO, 238.67 is just the minimum which is the 161.8% of the wave0 to wave 3 length, I expect it to go much higher.


EG





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hefeiddd

Hey doc,
Your welcome. Thats what this discussion board is about. Your news question was a great question, one which I enjoyed answering. Id love to hear anybodys elses response to it as well. Maybe we can start a round table discussion so if anybody disagrees, do tell.

As far as your question on the Eur/Cad is concerned, its a hard pair to read when you look at a really long term count. Maybe because the Eur is such a new entity on its only, the info somehow got warped along the way. However, its now looking crystal clear. The inevitable direction to me looks up but your right about the next few weeks being down. I see that too. We have 9 waves from the bottom which is impulsive, especially after and abc zigzag where b wave has been breech. Followed by a 5 wave decline which I count as i of a (red). Also, yes I think 4253 is a good minimum target for A. We then should get a b retracement. The final c or wave 2 retracement should be at between
anywhere between 50% and 61% which would be typical. But yes, really short term trade set-up to trying to catch the c of A down at 1.4253 would be very feasible in my opinion.
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Heres the ABC correction I was talking about with the Eur/cad where b wave has been breech so the inevitable direction is up but not until a correction lasting several week.
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hefeiddd

I bet no one else will give you this euro wave count... Tell me what you think Jaime
Recently I was priveledged to have a look at Elliot Wave international's outlook on the euro/usd, it's looks pretty much like this... I've given more days of thought to this wave count then any man should.. lol I think a lot of people will be surprised when the euro doesn't break upward as fast as everyone would like !!

JAIME !!! Please tell me what you think of this count !

-BRAD-



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hefeiddd

Let's not make it too complicated, currently we have 3 waves down on Usd/Yen daily, that doesn't mean that it won't become 5 waves. Just that the current rise does look impulsive and nearly went into the extreme of wave 1. Another high above 111.22 and a break of 111.59 will just make it impulsive where we can then wait for a pullback before jumping in the long position. Of course it prices start falling from here and goes under 109.00 the trend is still down. We might be in a major trend change that can last a few months, so I think it's better to stay away and wait for clarification before having a bias here.
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hefeiddd

another counting.........
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hefeiddd

Yes, we currently have 3 waves, but who says this 3rd wave is over and done with. Thats a dangerous assumption to make. This is still my primary count for the USD/Jpy. I mentioned a top on Friday was in place and so far, it was not breech so my count is still valid. Goes to show, not matter how corrective the count looks so far, you have let it play out before passing judgment. The corrective nature of the decline could have simply been lack of volatility due to it being Friday afternoon. My count told me we may have topped. Hourly were way overbought and momentum was turning down yet the decline looked corrective on Friday. Anyhow, I expect one more low before wave IV of a larger degree if its a large 3 wave or wave 1 if its a C wave. For now, Im trading for a new low target.Attached Images








Well I guess it depends if your looking at it through a bulls eyed view or a bears eyed view. Your count is certainly possible especially since daily momentum is still up but I don't see 5 waves. I see a 7 wave structure so far which is corrective. I guess time will tell. We both have the yen going down very short term. I still think we might make a new low.
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hefeiddd

I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that at least a multi-week bottom is in place at 107.20. Not only was 107.20 very close to a measured objective but the rally is in 5 waves. Recent weakness is likely wave A in an A-B-C (which will prove to be either a 2 or a larger B). Support should be solid in the 108.70/109.30 area. I expect the next advance to challenge 113.00
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hefeiddd

This is the count that I have had for some time and there is no reason to change it now. Basically, the EURUSD is in a 4th wave decline that should end before 1.4353. A new high will follow. An objective is at 1.5643 but that probably doesn't happen for a few months. Historically, December has been a bad month for the USD. I am looking for an entry near 1.4520
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hefeiddd

The clearest USD pair to me right now is the NZDUSD. The clear 5 waves up is being corrected and wave C of this correction is beginning now. The minimum drop is below .7435 but we'll likely see at least .7365. Risk is tight at .7770.
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hefeiddd

heads up, the USDCAD is approaching a potentially strong resistance level from a trendline and Fib level (1.0170s)
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hefeiddd

The EURUSD is approaching the top of B of 4. Expect wave c to begin in the next 2 days and bring price below 1.4620 and probably close to 1.4500.
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hefeiddd

hefeiddd

I like the Eur/Aud. Im looking for a move back to 1.6200 beginning early as Asian session. This might be an ideal time for the Eur.Nzd as well.
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hefeiddd

Hi Everyone.

I hope this goes thru. chart is only 38 KB

GBPJPY chart has 3 wave count Options I was trying to toy with. I am more incline to choose Blue Option 3 though.

Magenta Channel is placed to illustrate Potential Channeling in this by using parallel the lines from the side of the wave 2 and the wave 4.

Trying to show an example as per textbook that when wave 0 1 and 2 are available, you draw a channel based on the wave 0 and 1 side to see potential resistance for wave 3.

And when potential wave 3 has probably ended and normally with a spike then followed by a wave 4 formation, then we adjust the channel to use wave 2 and wave 4 ends as the basis for the parallel lines against the wave 1end.

Normally we would see that wave 3 as an overthrow.

Wave 5 is then perceived to reach the other side of the channel from where wave 4 ended.

Of course wave 5 can still make for an overthrow on that channel or may not even reach that other side of the channel.

I would normally watch out for the wave equality also as wave 5 develops especially if wave 3 is extended which would be the case if I select Option 3 Wave count.

Which brings me to watch watch out for a possible wave 5 failure that could terminate @ 229.19 both satisfying a wave 5 failure and the guideline for wave equality.

Still, I am open to seeing GBPJPY go further up as there are also cases where both wave 3 and wave 5 can both be extended.

I hope you all do not mind the lengthy text. I just wanted to support the position I waas taking for now based on what I see on my chart.

I am very open though to be corrected incase I missed something in applying the EW Principles on my wave count.

EG
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I think I know where the problem is now. I was sending charts in GIF format. but when I converted it to jpg it actually appeared on the forum right after posting it.

Anyway, let me explain the details on my chart.

1st. There are the 3 options for the wave counts on my GBPJPY Chart.
a. I am more inclined with the Blue Wave Count Option.
b. Using the FIB Extention tool on MT4, I have wave 3 at FE 161.8 - 200.0 range which fits what I have iften observed with GBPJPY.
c. sub wave 4 of the wave 3 blue is quite deep which is a bit over 50% retracement of sub wave 3 (magenta FIB Retracement). Note I ignored the overlap of sub wave 4 into sub wave 1 inside wave 3.
d. sub wave 5 of wave 3 Blue then terminates just a litlle above sub wave 3.

Next I drew the Aquamarine channel to illustrate a Channeling which is happening here. (Actually I was testing the Guideline on Prechter's Book). Here I initially drew a channel using wave 0 1 and 2 with wave 0 and 2 trendline as the basis of one side of the channel while the otherside was banked on wave 1 end.

Then I was looking for the wave 3 projection together with the projection using the FIB extention tool. Although it has been noted that wave 3 almost always makes a throwover.

The same channel ( I just realized now ) was supposed to be used to project wave 4.

With the following features:
a. channelling guideline,
b. rule of alternation ( wave 2 was a sideways expansion so expecting wave 4 to be zigzag) ,
c. wave equality C=A for zigzag waves
d. wave 4 rule on overlapping with wave 1 ( with leniency on my part here due to spikes and volatility of this pair )

Now, we have not hit the lower side of the Aquamarine channel for our wave 4. So there could still be a possibility of price still coming down to kiss that channel or maybe not.

Incase it does not, then we should see GBPJPY climbing now with still a possibility of the retrace towards this bottom channel side for the wave 2 before really climbing any higher.

Fib Tools on my chart:

Turquoise Fib Extentioon tool is use to project the wave 3 and wave 5. wave 3 was in the FE 161.8 - 200.0 range. I would be looking at wave 5 to be in the 261.8 - 300.0 range or a possibility of the FE 425 level.

Magenta Fib Retracement tool is to illustrate the 50% retracement of sub wave 4 from the length of sub wave 3 of wave 3.

Yellow Fib extention tool was used to project the wave c of wave 4 Magenta . Although I preferred to use the retracement guideline for wave 4 being between 50-61.8% of wave 3 though normally at 38% or even 23.6% only if the prevailing maintrend is quite strong.

Blue Fib Extention Tool was used to project potential end of Blue wave 4

Red Fib Retracement Tool was to illustrate the wave equality where Magenta wave 5 was equal to Magenta wave 1 of the Blue wave 3. in this case it exceeded a little bit.

Also you will see the 3 Magenta Horizontal lines
a. Top is Possible support of a previous Resistance based on the wave 1 Magenta
b. middle as you go down is another potential support based on the wave b of Blue wave 2
c. and lastly at the bottom is the top of the Blue wave 1 which sets the limit of the lowest that wave 4 could go down to.

Broken yellow lines were support and resistance trendlines.

Ok. I know this post has been very long . Please let me know if this type of posts are not allowed here and I will remove it to follow your rules.

But if this is allowed, I would like to solicit your views on this analysis as I would really like to learn from the knowledgeable elliotticians here. I am still learning and mostly still am trying to fit my counts by the book. And I would like to know what you all think and if I may have missed something here too.

Thank you.
EG
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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad -Targets are reached today ! ..... Gain of a whopping 420 pips ! ..........Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eur/Usd
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( Channeling all day yesterday )
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hefeiddd

Usd/Jpy-
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Diamond ,,,,,, ?
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hefeiddd

Here is a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average !
-It had a " Diamond Top " in it from earlier this year and rallied
into an end of a " Wave 5 " which ended last month November 07 .....

" IT"S ALL IN THE CHARTS " Attached Images

hefeiddd

I really like EURNZD short.....a lot. Here is an hourly chart gaing back to the September high. A spike into the 1.9450/1.9550 zone offers a great opportunity to get short against 1.9873 (a lot of risk one might think...but Kiwi pips are .73 and it is the proper stop). The objective is not until below 1.8200.Attached Images