一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Usd/Nzd

Hi all ,,,,,
Here is the Nzd/Usd on a 5 min chart ..............
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618% retracement ?
Got my eye on you there buddy !
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hefeiddd

Nzd/Usd

Ok , moving along ,
I just posted that chart and look we got a small rise out of that
618 Retracement Line and look at this ...............Wow !

Maybe , there may now be some sign of support .............
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Nzd/Usd

Here is the short-term picture that may be ocuuring going into tommorow's USA trading session

This is only a Probability !................It is Not Cast in Stone........
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hefeiddd

Let's take a step back and put things in perspective. To me, Kiwi needs a C wave in order to complete a large A-B-C before we can think about getting bullish. C waves are usually sharp too so be careful if you are long. A push through .7891 isn't impossible though as we could see an expanded flat.Attached Images

hefeiddd

here is a very short term chart of nzdjpy (5 min). time to plunge.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey edisko,
The count you describe was my original count but has recently been moved to my alternate count. For now, this is still my primary count. If my count is correct, were in the resistance zone I have us pegged for the reversal to a new low. (between 111.54 and 111.96). So for my count to be be right, it shouldnt be long now.Attached Images







hey guys,
here is a closeup of the chart i posted yesterday on the usd/jpy. (post 2118). Patern on this chart is difficult to count so I have to rely on the bigger picture count (wave iv if III of 3 down) plus the price resistance zone i had pegged for the reversal. So far, this resistance zone is hold up as great resistance. We are now hanging out around the lower line of the zone. Curious to see what happens from here. price may hang out till tomorrows Fomc meeting.Either way, im looking for significant usd weakness this week.
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hefeiddd

I like the Eur/Aud. Im looking for a move back to 1.6200 beginning early as Asian session. This might be an ideal time for the Eur.Nzd as well.
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hefeiddd

I agree with Jamie's assessment of Kiwi weakness coming soon. Weeks ago, I called for the Aud/Nzd to retrace back to 1300 level for a final C wave before the uptrend continues. (post # 1373 on page 92) We are now there. Expect the uptrend to resume shortly.
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think.............
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hefeiddd

thanks Jamie
and maybe ...daily counting ..........near term bearish......Attached Images

hefeiddd

Once again, I tend to agree with Jamie on this one. (See, we don't always disagree...lol). Gbp/Jpy is looking very interesting with at least a very sharp decline on the way. Once the decline gets started, at the very minimum, even if it were a Cwave and not a wave 3, 209.45 is the typical c wave target. Momentum to the upside seems to be turning. The only thing that could go wrong is the subdivisions not being as clear as I would like. This is why I have to refer to larger term pattern to tell me where I am, as well as fib level to tell me when it will end. But with Yen pairs, what else is new.Attached Images







this is my opinion frnd.........
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hefeiddd

Nzd / Usd

Moving toward an End of a Wave #5 "
- Time to move stop up to protect those Pipies !
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hefeiddd

Nzd/Usd

Just posting this chart here, for anyone watching the Nzd/Usd

This could be serious ............
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All this talk about carry trades ,,,,,,
Another one of those Funny-mentals ,
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Did you know that Mr. Nelson Elliot who created Elliott Waves
spoke nothing of using the News , Reports , or Funny-Mentals ?

Why is this ?...................
If Mr. Nelson Elliott did not use Funny-mentals , why should we use them ?

The proof is always in the charts...........
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The foundation of Price movements are in the charts in which is a true
reflection of what what's really happening , it just takes time and the
understanding of above all Sound Money Management Principles to learn
to see the repetition that occurs over and over and over .....

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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad

Here is the short-term picture that may be occuring going into tomorrow's USA trading session

This is only a Probability !................It is Not Cast in Stone........
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hefeiddd

Market,

I'm with you on the yen. On the bigger picture I see a completion of wave c at about 112.50 to 60 which also correspond to the 50% retracement from the last drop. If we see that level failed the next resistance I see is at about 113.50 to 80 - 61.8% retracement and where wave a is equal to wave c, plus the previous breakout point.
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hefeiddd

Now cable is a bit unclear. Here is what I have so far. What do you guys think ?
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hefeiddd

Usd/Yen

Here is the short-term picture that may be ocuuring going into tommorow's USA trading session

This is only a Probability !................It is Not Cast in Stone........
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hefeiddd

2.2  Extension Most impulses contain what Elliott called an extension. Extensions are elongated impulses with exaggerated subdivisions. The vast majority of impulse waves do contain an extension in one and only one of their three actionary subwaves. At times, the subdivisions of an extended wave are nearly the same amplitude and duration as the other four waves of the larger impulse, giving a total count of nine waves of similar size rather than the normal count of "five" for the sequence. In a nine-wave sequence, it is occasionally difficult to say which wave extended. However, it is usually irrelevant anyway, since under the Elliott system, a count of nine and a count of five have the same technical significance. The diagrams in Figure 1-5, illustrating extensions, will clarify this point. Figure 5 The fact that extensions typically occur in only one actionary subwave provides a useful guide to the expected lengths of upcoming waves. For instance, if the first and third waves are of about equal length, the fifth wave will likely be a protracted surge. (In waves below Primary degree, a developing fifth wave extension will be confirmed by new high volume, as described in Lesson 13 under "Volume.") Conversely, if wave three extends, the fifth should be simply constructed and resemble wave one. In the stock market, the most commonly extended wave is wave 3. This fact is of particular importance to real time wave interpretation when considered in conjunction with two of the rules of impulse waves: that wave 3 is never the shortest actionary wave, and that wave 4 may not overlap wave 1. To clarify, let us assume two situations involving an improper middle wave, as illustrated in Figures 1-6 and 1-7. Figure 1-6 Figure 1-7 Figure 1-8 In Figure 1-6, wave 4 overlaps the top of wave 1. In Figure 1-7, wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 and shorter than wave 5. According to the rules, neither is an acceptable labeling. Once the apparent wave 3 is proved unacceptable, it must be relabeled in some way that is acceptable. In fact, it is almost always to be labeled as shown in Figure 1-8, implying an extended wave (3) in the making. Do not hesitate to get into the habit of labeling the early stages of a third wave extension. The exercise will prove highly rewarding, as you will understand from the discussion under Wave Personality in Lesson 14. Figure 1-8 is perhaps the single most useful guide to real time impulse wave counting in this course. Extensions may also occur within extensions. In the stock market, the third wave of an extended third wave is typically an extension as well, producing a profile such as shown in Figure 1-9. Figure 1-10 illustrates a fifth wave extension of a fifth wave extension. Extended fifths are fairly uncommon except in bull markets in commodities covered in Lesson 28. . Figure 1-9 Figure 1-10

Lesson 2   Back   Next

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2.3  Truncation

Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in Figures 1-11 and 1-12. Truncation often occurs following an extensively strong third wave. Figure 1-11 Figure 1-12 The U.S. stock market provides two examples of major degree truncated fifths since 1932. The first occurred in October 1962 at the time of the Cuban crisis (see Figure 1-13). It followed the crash that occurred as wave 3. The second occurred at year-end in 1976 (see Figure 1-14). It followed the soaring and broad wave (3) that took place from October 1975 to March 1976. Figure 1-13

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3.1  Diagonal Triangles

A diagonal triangle is a motive pattern yet not an impulse, as it has one or two corrective characteristics. Diagonal triangles substitute for impulses at specific locations in the wave structure. As with impulses, no reactionary subwave fully retraces the preceding actionary subwave, and the third subwave is never the shortest. However, diagonal triangles are the only five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend within which wave four almost always moves into the price territory of (i.e., overlaps) wave one. On rare occasions, a diagonal triangle may end in a truncation, although in our experience such truncations occur only by the slimmest of margins. Ending Diagonal An ending diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone "too far too fast," as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of ending diagonals appear in the C wave position of A-B-C formations. In double or triple threes (to be covered in Lesson 9), they appear only as the final "C" wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. Ending diagonals take a wedge shape within two converging lines, with each subwave, including waves 1, 3 and 5, subdividing into a "three," which is otherwise a corrective wave phenomenon. The ending diagonal is illustrated in Figures 1-15 and 1-16 and shown in its typical position in larger impulse waves. Figure 1-15 Figure 1-16 We have found one case in which the pattern's boundary lines diverged, creating an expanding wedge rather than a contracting one. However, it is unsatisfying analytically in that its third wave was the shortest actionary wave, the entire formation was larger than normal, and another interpretation was possible, if not attractive. For these reasons, we do not include it as a valid variation.

3.2  Diagonals Ending diagonals have occurred recently in Minor degree as in early 1978, in Minute degree as in February-March 1976, and in Subminuette degree as in June 1976. Figures 1-17 and 1-18 show two of these periods, illustrating one upward and one downward "real-life" formation. Figure 1-19 shows our real-life possible expanding diagonal triangle. Notice that in each case, an important change of direction followed. Figure 1-17 Figure 1-18 Figure 1-19 Although not so illustrated in Figures 1-15 and 1-16, fifth waves of diagonal triangles often end in a "throw-over," i.e., a brief break of the trendline connecting the end points of waves one and three. Figures 1-17 and 1-19 show real life examples. While volume tends to diminish as a diagonal triangle of small degree progresses, the pattern always ends with a spike of relatively high volume when a throw-over occurs. On rare occasions, the fifth subwave will fall short of its resistance trendline. A rising diagonal is bearish and is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began. A falling diagonal by the same token is bullish, usually giving rise to an upward thrust. Fifth wave extensions, truncated fifths and ending diagonal triangles all imply the same thing: dramatic reversal ahead. At some turning points, two of these phenomena have occurred together at different degrees, compounding the violence of the next move in the opposite direction.

Lesson 3   Back   Next

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3.3  Leading Diagonals

When diagonal triangles occur in the wave 5 or C position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves 1 and 4 and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation (see Figure 1-20) fits the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a "continuation" message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the ending diagonal. Analysts must be aware of this pattern to avoid mistaking it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves. The main key to recognizing this pattern is the decided slowing of price change in the fifth subwave relative to the third. By contrast, in developing first and second waves, short term speed typically increases, and breadth (i.e., the number of stocks or subindexes participating) often expands. Figure 1-20 Figure 1-21 shows a real life example of a leading diagonal triangle. This pattern was not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but has appeared enough times and over a long enough period that we are convinced of its validity. Figure 1-21

3.4  Corrective Waves Markets move against the trend of one greater degree only with a seeming struggle. Resistance from the larger trend appears to prevent a correction from developing a full motive structure. This struggle between the two oppositely trending degrees generally makes corrective waves less clearly identifiable than motive waves, which always flow with comparative ease in the direction of the one larger trend. As another result of this conflict between trends, corrective waves are quite a bit more varied than motive waves. Further, they occasionally increase or decrease in complexity as they unfold so that what are technically subwaves of the same degree can by their complexity or time length appear to be of different degree. For all these reasons, it can be difficult at times to fit corrective waves into recognizable patterns until they are completed and behind us. As the terminations of corrective waves are less predictable than those for motive waves, the Elliott analyst must exercise more caution in his analysis when the market is in a meandering corrective mood than when prices are in a persistently motive trend. The single most important rule that can be gleaned from a study of the various corrective patterns is that corrections are never fives. Only motive waves are fives. For this reason, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it. The figures that follow through Lesson 9 of this course should serve to illustrate this point. Corrective processes come in two styles. Sharp corrections angle steeply against the larger trend. Sideways corrections, while always producing a net retracement of the preceding wave, typically contain a movement that carries back to or beyond its starting level, thus producing an overall sideways appearance. The discussion of the guideline of alternation in Lesson 10 will explain the reason for noting these two styles. Specific corrective patterns fall into four main categories: Zigzags (5-3-5; includes three types: single, double, and triple); Flats (3-3-5; includes three types: regular, expanded, and running); Triangles (3-3-3-3-3; four types: three of the contracting variety (ascending, descending, and symmetrical) and one of the expanding variety (reverse symmetrical); Double threes and triple threes (combined structures).

Lesson 3   Back   Next

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3.5  Zigzags

A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is 5-3-5, and the top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A, as illustrated in Figures 1-22 and 1-23. Figure 1-22 Figure 1-23 In a bear market, a zigzag correction takes place in the opposite direction, as shown in Figures 1-24 and 1-25. For this reason, a zigzag in a bear market is often referred to as an inverted zigzag. Figure 1-24 Figure 1-25 Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three," producing what is called adouble zigzag(see Figure 1-26) ortriple zigzag. These formations are analogous to the extension of an impulse wave but are less common. The correction in the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index from January 1977 to March 1978 (see Figure 1-27) can be labeled as a double zigzag, as can the correction in the Dow from July to October 1975 (see Figure 1-28). Within impulses, second waves frequently sport zigzags, while fourth waves rarely do. Figure 1-26 Figure 1-27 Figure 1-28 R.N. Elliott's original labeling of double and triple zigzags and double and triple threes (see later section) was a quick shorthand. He denoted the intervening movements as wave X, so that double corrections were labeled A-B-C-X-A-B-C. Unfortunately, this notation improperly indicated the degree of the actionary subwaves of each simple pattern. They were labeled as being only one degree less than the entire correction when in fact, they are two degrees smaller. We have eliminated this problem by introducing a useful notational device: labeling the successive actionary components of double and triple corrections as waves W, Y, and Z, so that the entire pattern is counted "W-X-Y (-X-Z)." The letter "W" now denotes the first corrective pattern in a double or triple correction, Y the second, and Z the third of a triple. Each subwave thereof (A, B or C, as well as D or E of a triangle — see later section) is now properly seen as two degrees smaller than the entire correction. Each wave X is a reactionary wave and thus always a corrective wave, typically another zigzag.

4.1  Flats (3-3-5)

A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5, as shown in Figures 1-29 and 1-30. Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction, not surprisingly, seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzags. Figure 1-29 Figure 1-30 In a bear market, the pattern is the same but inverted, as shown in Figures 1-31 and 1-32. Figure 1-31 Figure 1-32 Flat corrections usually retrace less of preceding impulse waves than do zigzags. They participate in periods involving a strong larger trend and thus virtually always precede or follow extensions. The more powerful the underlying trend, the briefer the flat tends to be. Within impulses, fourth waves frequently sport flats, while second waves do so less commonly. What might be called "double flats" do occur. However, Elliott categorized such formations as "double threes," a term we discuss in Lesson 9. The word "flat" is used as a catchall name for any A-B-C correction that subdivides into a 3-3-5. In Elliott literature, however, three types of 3-3-5 corrections have been identified by differences in their overall shape. In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A, as we have shown in Figures 1-29 through 1-32. Far more common, however, is the variety called an expandedflat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. Elliott called this variation an "irregular" flat, although the word is inappropriate as they are actually far more common than "regular" flats.