一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

10.2  Phi And The Market

Now compare the formations shown in Figures 3-14 and 3-15. Each illustrates the natural law of the inwardly directed Golden Spiral and is governed by the Fibonacci ratio. Each wave relates to the previous wave by .618. In fact, the distances in terms of the Dow points themselves reflect Fibonacci mathematics. In Figure 3-14, showing the 1930-1942 sequence, the market swings cover approximately 260, 160, 100, 60, and 38 points respectively, closely resembling the declining list of Fibonacci ratios: 2.618, 1.618, 1.00, .618 and .382. Figure 3-14 Figure 3-15 Starting with wave X in the 1977 upward correction shown in Figure 3-15, the swings are almost exactly 55 points (wave X), 34 points (waves A through C), 21 points (wave d), 13 points (wave a of e) and 8 points (wave b of e), the Fibonacci sequence itself. The total net gain from beginning to end is 13 points, and the apex of the triangle lies exactly on the level of the correction's beginning at 930, which is also the level of the peak of the subsequent reflex rally in June. Whether one takes the actual number of points in the waves as coincidence or part of the design, one can be certain that the precision manifest in the constant .618 ratio between each successive wave is not coincidence. Lessons 20 through 25 and 30 will elaborate substantially on the appearance of the Fibonacci ratio in market patterns.

hefeiddd

This chart was illustrated by Robert Miner of Dynamic Traders

He is probably the 2nd most popular person that teaches Elliott Waves
see how he illustrates wave 1 ( see red lines )

You probably would disagree - just wanted to show you this ....

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hefeiddd

Nzd/Usd -
Well Jamie , Here we are this morning

Targets are reached today ! ..... Gain of a whopping 110 pips ! ..........
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Time to go play Golf !....................No ,maybe Bungee Jumping ?
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hefeiddd

This is what I see with the USDJPY...maybe C is done and maybe it is just partially done
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hefeiddd

If anyone has any good ideas on the labeling of the USDCAD rally then let me know. It could be a double or triple zigzag or an impulse with an extended 5th...those are what I am working with. All of these counts suggest that the near term trend is down for at least a couple big figures.

Even in the case of the extended 5th, we should see a return to .9500, which is the 61.8% of .9055-1.0216.

Even more near term....the recent rally just hit the 61.8 of 1.0216-1.0004. The immediate rejection suggests to me that the next leg down is underway...if this is an a-b-c then c = a at .9920. The 23.6 (which would be the first potential fibo support in my mind) is not until .9942.

Throw into this that the EURUSD should test 1.4800 soon if a flat or triangle is playing out and we have a USD bearish bias to support this trade.
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hefeiddd

Here is the Usd/Yen Update
Only 40 pips of risk in this trade set-up...............
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Entry.........111.80
Stop ........111.40 to hold as support
Target .......( See chart below )Attached Images

hefeiddd

Jamie,this is my idea for cad but maybe not good labeling.......
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hefeiddd

This is what I am working with in the USDCAD right now...at least this is what I favor. I am counting the rally from .9055 as an impulse...with wave 5 extended. Under this count, waves 1 through 4 are clean and wave 5 is an ending diagonal. As I previously mentioned, one would expect a diaonal to be fully retraced. This combined with the fact that the 61.8 of this entire rally is near the origin of the diagonal makes me a bear against 1.0216.
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hefeiddd

Italm

Look at this chart ....... here is a recap

talk about breadth ..............You should have understood this clearly .

Price was sitting on a 50 % retracement line ..............
and also we had bullish harami candle-stick formation

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I called this cold !
and I posted it before it happened ...... Non nHiondsite !
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hefeiddd

No Hindsite ---------
All was posted here for all to see EarlyAttached Images

hefeiddd

You see Italm ..........
Price simply rallied out a 618% retracement line ..............
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By the way , this is what the bank computers trained to looking for
-They are looking for Fibonacci Retracements ........
( then they confirm them with candlestick formations )

This was beautiful
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Here is the end result :
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hefeiddd

Here it is againAttached Images

hefeiddd

Ok Jamie ...... I respect your count ,

-Again best of luck to you on your chart set-up
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Here is another view :

This is still short-term ..............
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hefeiddd

To me, everything from the top is corrective and I am lableling it more like this....I expect a wave B top near 1.0170 (78.6) later todayAttached Images

hefeiddd

Im looking at the gbp/Jpy. I believe the turn may have happened already. The decline from todays high has been steep. Heres the count im still working with.Attached Images







here is that resistance zone i was referring to yesterday regarding the usd/jpy. We briefly went above it, we are now below it. I believe we have a top in place there as well.
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Pay particulat attention to Usd Jpy. We have a 3 waver from the top. Looking for a final drop to happen soon to confirm 5 waves down. Still in that resistance zone. One move lower would clear that for good.
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hefeiddd

I am watching this myself...however, wave C may very well still be in progress. When the rally is not so clear to me, I like to look at the line chart (just closes). The 240 line chart makes a strong argument that wave i of C is complete and that this decline will prove corrective (maybe a 5-3-5...or 3-3-5). So the decline from the top is just the first leg of a correction to me. Support should be strong near 110.00/110.60. Larger C from 109.56 would equal A at 113.58 (initial objectve).

In summary...short term bear...bigger moves still to the upside though.Attached Images

hefeiddd

This is the primary count I am working with on the daily. Wave 1 of larger 3 is done. Wave 2 of larger 3 is underway. 2nd waves are often sharp so I am expecting at least the 61.8 which is at 113.83...very close to where c would equal a were 109.56 to remain intact.
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hefeiddd

Until the decline from the top is in 5 waves, I am sticking with the bullish count. The decline ended (at least so far) at the 61.8 (as mentioned this morning). I will assume that wave C is still underway to higher levels unless the decline makes a 5 down.
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hefeiddd

Everyone...I want to put forth a new count for the EURUSD. My original call was for wave B to end near the 61.8 at 1.4800 but the EURUSD did reverse off of the 50 today and we could be in C already. Risk is tight at 1.4725 and the target is not until below 1.4526. More telling is that the 38.2% is at 1.4353...C would equal A at 1.4309 if a wave B top is in at 1.4750. The fact that these two measurements are so close along with other technical considerations makes me bearish now, against 1.4725.
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hefeiddd

well that depends on what your long term count is. Mine is still wave iv of III down. So its do or die for my count to be right.Attached Images







  






Well this decline hasn't solved anything regarding my primary count or my alternate count. My primary count is still in play. We made a drastic reversal from the resistance zone I had pegged out. For now, I expect a new low for a final v of III.
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