一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:34

Brad ,
Why don't you ask Italm or Eg888....... ?

He will respond top you right away, I'm sure

-----------------------------------------------------
Here is another view ..... ( see chart below )

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Next time, just ask Italm or Eg888.... especially it its a Yen Pair !

------------------------------------------------------------
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:35

Brad ,
Here is the Euro/Usd chart update from this morning .........

I be watching this mainly tomorrow also ........

---------------------------------------------------
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:36

Brad, here is my take on EURJPY. I think wave 3 or C is unfoldind right now with min target 157.70 but 152.17 is more likely for that count. Hope that helps.Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:36

Further more 4 hour count suggests a retest of 163 area is likely to complete wave 2 which is also trendline breakout.
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:37

A great short term buy opportunity in the EURJPY right now. If the decline from 166.65 is indeed an impulse, then wave 5 is extended and therefore we are due for a sizeable wave 2 higher. Waves a and b of the 2 are complete and wave c is probable beginning right now. The target is 164 (former 4th) and risk is kept to 159.74.
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:38

Everything you say is correct but the most important thing to me is the wave structure. At this point, the most probable count is bullish until at least 1.52/1.53. Not to mention, COT data shows that traders are actually very long the US dollar and commercial hedgers are very short the dollar...always line with the commercials when commercials and specs diverge significantly. Keep in mind the quote from Keynes...."marktes can remain illogical far longer than you can remain solvent"...

even better is a quote from my favorite book of all time..Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (it is the fictionalized biography of one the Street's all time geatest speculators...Jesse Livermore)...anyway the quote is

“The trend is evident to a man who has an open mind and reasonably clear sight, for it is never wise for a speculator to fit his facts to his theories.” (page 122)

If we just look at the rally from the June low at 1.3261, it is clear that a 5th wave is needed to complete the rally. At this point, my target is 1.5277..which is a fibo extensionAttached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:39

If you can't see the dollar declining for a few more years then maybe this chart will help you. This is a monthly USD Index chart back to the early 70's. Might a huge 5 wave advance had ended in 1985 had currencies been allowed to free float in the middle of the 1900's? If so, then wave C of the large A-B-C is still underway AND the decline is in wave 3 of C now...which makes sense as the EURUSD has actually accelerated recently. If wave C is to equal wave A in % terms, then this decline could extend to 62.75 in USD index terms. That corresponds to about 1.7800 in the EURUSD. Sounds crazy but most correct forecasts do sound crazy at some point.

Also, as per your thinking that wave II is forced; the count follows all of Elliott's rules and even satisifes the guideline of ending in the area of the previous 4h wave (although not near the terminus).

Do I hope that this count is wrong...absolutely! After all, I am a US citizen and I do get paid in dollars. BUT...it is not my job to be on the bull side or bear side..it is my job to be on the right side.Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:40

Usd/Cad

Hmmm?.......
How come no one in the news is talking about this?

Have a good look here

THIS COULD BE SERIOUS .........

!

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:41

wOw ..............

Talk about " Shock and Awe "......

Look at what just happened will you l

How about that ?

-----------------------------------------
Elliott Waves - they are always there ........
The foundation is always built into price

Forget about News and waiting for Reports to come out

The Evidence is always in the charts :
-----------------------------------------------
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:42

Usd/Cad

////////////////////////////////////
" Chart of the Day "

Why is there suddenly all this interest in the Loonie ?...

---------------------------------------------------------
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:43

Enough of all this theory stuff...let's get back to trading. Here is a possible count for the EURUSD that all should be aware of. An expanded flat as part of wave 2 of a larger 5th. If this is correct, then price will come under 1.4569 and likely test 1.4500 in the next 2 weeks.
Attached Images

What's going on here today ? ................. Thanx again
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:44

Thanks Italm !
[quote=italm31;143015]Hey Brad,

Thanks for the response Italm

A multi year top you say ?? Hmmmm... I have to say thats exactly how I feel about the pair too at the moment, but it's deffinately going to take a break of the trend line since the millenium low to convince me...
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:45

USDCAD reversal ?????
I see what your getting excited about in the usd/cad Market :P
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:46

Thats great Jamie. Awesome argument for the bears side. Now do me a favor. Be an objective spectular, take off your bear glasses for just one second, put on some bull glasses and tell me if this count is at all possible. If not, why not? I already told you why I don't like your count, now can you please tell me why my count is totally off base. Am I breaking any rules? Just humor me if you will for 1 min please.Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:47

noone is interested by kiwi?
there is always a good potential,
5' chart :

I wonder if it wasnt a C wave we made...

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:49

ok Jamie :
- just observed all this in the Usd/Yen here in the last 15 mins
----------------------------------------------------------

Will the Bulls come now come out to Play ?
or , maybe they are still snowed in

----------------------------------------------
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:50

Hi Adrian , Welcome back

Here is the Usd/Yen chart( Mid Terrm )
Posted from 2 days ago , here it is again .........

---------------------------------------------------Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:50

Gbp/Usd

Happy New Year to you all ......

-------------------------------------------------------------
Just wanted to stop by and give you guys some eye candy .
Tomorrow, if the US Dollar ( Swissy ) starts moving up and closing

-Then the Gbp/Usd may be on it's way to Bear Heaven ....

See Chart posted just below :

-------------------------------------------------------------
( Double click on chart to enlarge )
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:51

Usd/Chf

This the a chart setup for tomorrow friday 's daytime session

---------------------------------------------------------------
Attached Images

hefeiddd · 发表于 2008-4-28 20:52

Usd/Cad .............

Jamie ,
also keep an eye on this going into the US morning session.......

Which way could this break ? ...............If , it breaks at all !
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Attached Images

		搜索
热搜: macd K线与均线飞狐分时指标共振指标分时橡胶牛股炒股入门

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

浏览过的版块