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发表于 2008-4-28 21:00
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Bullish all around in Kiwi
I've posted a daily, weekly, and a monthly chart of the NZD/USD as I see it. Near term I want to see price drop below 0.7434 to complete wave 'C' of the correction that began 06Nov2007. Looking at the daily chart, there is a clear three wave decline and a clear five wave rally. Those are both screaming that price is headed higher in my book. The large decline from the high of 0.8107 back in July is in three waves. Three wave patterns are corrective in nature and because of that, we know that the high of that correction will be taken out at some point. Following that, there was the five wave advance and now the correction that is still playing out. Since the five wave rally hasn't taken out the high yet, I'm to assume that the next rally will be a large wave three. So the target for that wave is up at roughly 0.9400.
The weekly and monthly charts provide more evidence that price is headed higher. Also, the Kiwi is following the EUR/USD price action overall. Since higher prices are expected in EUR/USD, it's obvious that higher prices are coming in Kiwi as well.
Fundamentally, gold and oil prices are expected to continue to move higher and higher. Since the Kiwi is a commodity currency and closely correlated with gold/oil prices, we should see the price of NZD/USD keep on moving higher.
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Eur/Usd is due for retracement if not a further decline... just have to keep our eyes peeled ...
