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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 07:20 | 显示全部楼层
GBP/USD Long Term View
Here's my long term view of GBP/USD. I see five waves up with an extended fifth that also contains an extended fifth. Price is currently correcting now. A common rule of thumb is that price will retrace all the way down to where the fifth wave began. If that's the case here, then we should see lower prices for several months. On the short term, price is working lower in either wave 'C' or wave three. We won't know for sure until the next rally is over and we can see in what form that rally comes. There is going to be a substantial move either way it moves, so there will be good opportunities in this pair once the pattern clears itself up.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 07:21 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/chf
Hi Orudy,

First off... I can read your charts just fine.

Second... I think USD/CHF is still headed lower. Price is currently headed lower in a large wave five that will exceed 1.0883 as you have said. The recent rally (1.0883-1.1594) was in three waves and therefore was a corrective wave. If you break it down, you can see that that wave was composed of five waves up three down and five up. Since then, the decline from 1.1594 looks to have completed five waves and is now correcting. That five waves and the current rally is waves one and two of the larger wave five down. The 50.0% Fib of wave one is up at 1.1306. That level is also right inside the former fourth wave consolidation. I think it's probable that we'll see price rally up to that area before a top and reversal in wave three. The 161.8% Extension of wave one (1.1594-1.1018) gives a wave three target of 931 points. That should be a pretty nice trade.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 07:21 | 显示全部楼层
NZD/USD on the Brink!
I've attached an updated chart of NZD/USD. It's basically the same as the one Jamie has in his dailyfx page. Price has formed a series of first and second waves in a larger wave three. A corrective rally is building right now, but it looks like the Kiwi is about to tumble.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 07:23 | 显示全部楼层
EUR/USD Expanded Flat
EUR/USD looks like it's forming an expanded flat. A move below the low of wave 'A' would be a place to start looking for a reversal into wave three that will take price higher.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:03 | 显示全部楼层
May be time for Wave B up?

time will tell
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:04 | 显示全部楼层
Ok. I had my doubts on the continued downtrend based on my wave count on eurusd.

However when I saw the Price action on the daily a few minutes ago, I must admit that EURUSD looks more like heading down for a bigger correction.

1.4505 falls @ the 61.8% retracement for wave 2

Pin bar and the bearish engulfing candle indicate bearish bias for this pair.

So now I would be looking for a nice entry for my short trade.

EG
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:05 | 显示全部楼层
Usdcad I think usdcad price is headed up in "B" wave..... I changed my previous count after reviewing price action... Market what you say ??? PS: nice bull head.. lol
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:06 | 显示全部楼层
US Dollar ..............

What's this lurking in the shadows ........... ?

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:07 | 显示全部楼层
Hi Blueman .......... Happy New Year ...

Here is the Long -Term Gbp/Usd .....
( 5 clear waves )
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:07 | 显示全部楼层
Euro/Usd

Updates going into tomorrow's day session ( Short -Term )

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Only a Probability !..............Not Cast in Stone !
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:08 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/Usd
Here's a look at todays price action ......

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:09 | 显示全部楼层
Hi Market.. happy new year,great chart........ i believe in this one friend....Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:10 | 显示全部楼层
dilemma which one do u bet....sell or buy......trade when breakout..... or ....stop under wave 1,i.....
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:11 | 显示全部楼层
Hey guys,
In my opinion, the Gbp/Jpy is still showing the clearest waves. I see some more consolidation back to the 219 to 221 for a wave iv of III or C. Waiting for the next drop should prove to be benificial as wave v of III would be well over 700 pips.
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For those trading Gold, Price pattern suggests a top at or near completion. For those who are not trading it, its still worth a look because a drop in gold may mean a rise in the USD. Although an extended wave 5 would not surprise me one bit. Just something to keep an eye on.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:12 | 显示全部楼层
Hi,
I am Alex and it is my first post....
This is my count...( sorry for my English... )
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eurusd
possibly going in to C or 3 now.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:13 | 显示全部楼层
Nzd/jpy Coming Into Triangle Apex
NZD/JPY is due for a breakout soon.... Keep your eye's peeled...
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:14 | 显示全部楼层
Hi Marketwavez,
I'm interesting only in Eur/Jpy and Eur/Usd....
and this is my count for Eur/usdAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:15 | 显示全部楼层
While the USDCAD might be bullish near term, I am wary of buying due to the 5 wave decline from 1.0248-.9755.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:16 | 显示全部楼层
USDCAD too bullish ?
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I agree with Jamie on the possible dollar rally short-term
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-4-29 08:16 | 显示全部楼层
NZDJPY looks good for a 3000 pip decline in the future... This is a long term count of NZDJPY which I got from Meta Trader, I appologize for the size.. but it's as small as I could get it while keeping the picture clear. I have been looking for a long term chart for this pair for a while because once the dow started falling I noticed it was taking carry trades with it. After reviewing price action in the pair it seems price has rallied in 5 waves from the 2000 low, even leaving a gap near the top showing exhaustion This pair looks to be in a large "B" wave. In the future watch for the "B" wave top for an awesome short opportunity
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