一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The USDJPY bounce today appears to be in 5 waves on the 15 minute chart. As such, the expanded flat scenario that I put forth in this morning's technicals may be playing out. Under this count, a rally above 110.11 would complete the flat. Potential Fibonacci resistance is at 110.46and 111.26. The next bearish leg is expected to challenge objectives at 98.00 (probably in late February or early March but the time to position for that move is probably at the end of this month...a few weeks from now).
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hefeiddd

I hear your concern but don't forget that the EURUSD is 88 pips higher right now than it opened the day..so the rally is fairly strong..especially for a Monday. As long as price is above 1.4639, there is no reasont to fade this.Attached Images

hefeiddd

NZD fifth wave completion Hi guys,

this is my first post here and I hope that I am welcome

I am thinking of going short by the end of wave 5...

this can be supported by the wave count (if correct), the MACD divergance and the fact that gold is in its fifth wave

So, what do you think ?




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hefeiddd

NZD/USD count correction

but still the same aim

http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...1&d=1200350038




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hefeiddd

different counting
hi guys,

this another possibility for NZD/USD
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hefeiddd

For now, I would beg to disagree with Jamie on the GBPUSD.

Price was lowest at 1.9481. if we consider C = A 1.618, then price has just exceeded this by a few pips. ( to me it is not substantial to disregard its being end of C.

2nd is, if this is to be considered as a wave 3 and not as a wave C, I think the rule that a triangle can not be found at the end of a wave 3 will be broken.

Another thing is the 53535 structure which this triangle sports.

Therefore, I would be more inclined to consider this as an ending diagonal wave 5 of a wave C, which would then lead me to be bias that GBPUSD has had its corrective bottom at 1.9481.

If my reasoning or logic is flawed, kindly help me out on this one.

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hefeiddd

Gbpusd......
Hey Egg.,... this is where I think GBPUSD is at right now..... Marketwavez... what say you ?? I always like your stuff
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hefeiddd

if you count GBP/usd in this manner, it would approve jamie's result i think.



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hefeiddd

Anyone care for a wave 3?
Hey Adrian,
Im assuming you mean the Yen pairs. Unless we have an expanded flat wave 2 as i thought we might get yesterday or we just completed a very shallow wave 2 and were in wave 3. Heres my count for the Eur/Jpy.
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Heres the reason why yesterday I was expecting a rally in the Cad/Jpy for a wave C of an expanded flat. Typically the bare minimum for a wave 2 is 38.2%. (and even thats rare). Yet the Cad/Jpy only retraced 23.6%. Even though that is a valid fib level, thats usually where wave A extreme of an expanded flat ends. Buts as Ive said before, the fear in the markets right now is anything but typical. The bulls seemed to have disappeared and its a buyer beware environment. The expanded flat scenario is still possible as long as we go above today's high. Time however seems to be running out for the expanded flat to play out
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hefeiddd

GBPJPY closing in on a bottom?
Let's see...
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gbpusd
Correct me if I am wrong, but the run up does not look like an impulse move.
Look at the "a" leg. I don't think we have a bottom yet. By the way C is also not over.
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hefeiddd

Talk about cutting it close. Wave 2 or B topped just before the origin of 1 or A. I think that this is a 3 of C actually and expect a drop below .7435 eventually. If you saw the article from the other day on NZDJPY, I expect that to drop below 70. That article is here  (from last wednesday)Attached Images

hefeiddd

yep Jamie, i saw it, i read all your articles

about kiwi, i think we can keep your previous count too : (daily chart)

hefeiddd

Wave 3 anyone? This is the third time I show this chart in as many days. I realise some may not agree with it due to Gold rising but my stnce remains and today we did get a rather steep jolt downwards as with many pairs. I believe wave 3 has begun and we could go as low as .7800 before wave 3 is all said and done...maybe lower. This also makes me contemplate perhaps a top in Gold as well. If thats the case, Usd may finally have turned. Only time will tell. For now my short position in the Aussie is here to stay with a stop above todays high. I know I know, Im a stubborn SOB...and I wouldn't have it any other way.
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hefeiddd

Gold is looking pretty topish as well.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey Mak,
I went short the kiwi about the same time I shorted the Aussie. Now from your chart, your expecting a 5 wave move downward to complete. So am I. But heres the thing. I dont know how far advanced you are in Elliot Wave but a 5 wave move is impulsive. Meaning, that would be wave 1 down. We wouldn't get a new high if thats the case. A three leg move is corrective and would indicate a new high. I don't see a new high happening. Im short for the long haul. I thought this may have been a 1 2 already but I believe this maybe the diagonal count someone mentioned before. Either way whaever count you use, we should be going down for a while.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gbp/Jpy

-Just another Yen pair in the World-Wide Mudslide..... !

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hefeiddd

Usd/Yen

Heres A look at the Yen 's price action

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Only a Probabilty ! ...................... Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

Usd/ Yen

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UPDATE : Mid-Term wave-count .............
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hefeiddd

Nzd/Usd

Yes Jamie , Cutting it n close as you say just said
this is by the best End of Wave 2 illustration , I have seen in here in months

SO far ,,,,,,so good ....

If these highs hold - and what you are saying comes true
- Could we have just put in the year high for 2008 ?
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Here is another perspective
Here is a visual wave-count...................

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hefeiddd

Thank youvery much

this is eSignal and it allows me to draw and type comments on the same software


well, regarding NZDUSD, it was sold off to the expected region...

Now, I see an opportunity to go long from 0.7780 ..

what is your opinion guys ?Attached Images