一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

EURJPY update
I was digging in more long term charts... I thought I would post this count for EURJPY ... Food For Thought.. The pair does appear to be in a long term up trend.... Possibly coming into wave 3 of 3 soon !
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hefeiddd

UsdJpy
Here is a look at UsdJpy...
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hefeiddd

Jamie, Italm. Please help me with my count on USDJPY. I saw USDJPY making triangle on wave 4-4. Will go down to wave 4-5 and finally goes up 170point above crossing point between price & trendline to aproximately 108.5?Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey Orudy,
I have one simple rule in trading that has saved my butt more times than I could count and that is :IF I DONT SEE IT, I DONT TRADE IT. I don't care what anyone tells you, there is not always a count...short term at least. You have a 1 hour chart of the USD/JPY. I have no clue what its trying to do either. All I know is its most probably corrective but I have no clue when it will end. Soon Im sure but until then, Im staying out of its way. When I can't see it, I take a step back and look at the big picture...and here it is. My preferred count is a were in a wave 2 of a III of 3 down.Attached Images








Hey Picolo,
So that's why I havent seen much of you in a while! Your always on vacation......SLACKER!...lol...Well enjoy this one too.

Orudy, here is what I mean when I say I have to see it to trade it. Once I see it, I formulate a plan. Im looking for the Eur/Jpy for complete an ending diagonal very soon.
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hefeiddd

gbpusd
GBPUSD looks pretty ugly right now... There's probably better trades out there than this... There's a slew of possibilities at the current juncture... We should be coming into a "B" Wave now, or maybe lower.. That "B" Wave should reach 61.8 retracement, but could go higher right up to as far as the 161.8 fib... But we are not even sure yet if the down move is over in wave "A" yet... So you take your chances trading this pair at current price...

Some things to think about before trading this pair right now ....
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hefeiddd

I am treating the EURUSD decline from 1.4953 as wave d of the triangle that I have been following for a while. Wave d is expected to end near 1.4600. This is a close up of d and what might be happening -- wave d could acclerate lower near term?
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hefeiddd

I think that this base that has formed since mid-January will give way to a thrust higher to complete a c wave. Price should reach 108.50 and maybe a bit higher.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Longer term, I still think that we see a push to the mid 1.50w but this big wave 4 that began back in November remains underway. I still think that a triangle is possible given that on the daily it still valid using closing prices. BUT...here is another count that I think is just as probable. A large flat. Implications are for price to come under 1.4310 barely....before the big rally begins. If the driop from 1.4953 forms an impulse, then this will be my favored count. (I still have the triangle lines there)Attached Images

hefeiddd

Chfjpy
I posted a bunch of stuff here about CHFJPY on the weekend... I have continued picking the pair apart a while longer because I felt like my waves in the diagonal triangle were mislabelled.. My outlook is still the same.. Projection for a big up move over a few years time in wave 3 ... I just relabelled the waves in the diagonal triangle.. cheers
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hefeiddd

I don't know Italm... I think this pair is heading up for a while yet... I think we're tracing out a triangle here.... Price looks supported on the lower side when looking at the weekly... I think this pair is in a long term wave 3 up and it's getting volatile.... Price would have to break the trend line and come under 149.22 to make me bearish at all on this pair...... Where are you projecting a decline too ? Do you have a target ?Attached Images

hefeiddd

Heads up guys,
Aussie looks like its preparing for a a massive bear trap. Expanding trinagles are extremely rare hence when they do occur, once they terminate, the next leg can be violent. I suspect dollar bulls are getting ready for a sneak attack which will catch the bears (or basically MOST SPECULATORS) by surprise. Here's my count. Keep an eye on the news this evening.
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End of the Line Eur/Jpy?
Heads up guys,
Next leg down for the EUR/Jpy looks about ready to begin. Keep an eye on the momentum indicator.
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hefeiddd

Heads up guys,
Here is an update of the Eur/Jpy chart I posted last night. We have broken through the lower trendline of the diagonal. Next we should be headed to new lows. Expect a dismal day in the markets.Attached Images








The Aussie has come off its lows significantly. Im looking for new low there as well. Expanded triangles tend to usually happen in waves 4 and Bs. Going by this logic, we should be headed into C so expect 5 waves down. Furthermore, a minimum target ( wave C = 100% of wave A ) brings us to 8347. A maximum being 161.8 % of 1 or A brings us to 7883.
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hefeiddd

Jamie,
That is certainly a possibility but I still favor a long term top in place thereby allowing this last wave up to be a truncated 5th for the following reason. Every wave belonging to a triangle usually subdivides in 3 waves or has some sort or corrective count. This last wave up subdivides into 9 waves thereby making it impulsive. Your flat scenario is still a possibility because it would make this wave a c of B as you have it in you latest chart. Only time will tell. For now both our counts have the Euro making a substantial decline so lets enjoy the ride. Like I mention before, my bear glass remain.Attached Images










Hey danishfx,
I see us as in a iv of 1 down in the Euro. We could see a move back to 4700 before wave v begins. Wave 4s tend to retrace anywhere between 23.6% and 50% of wave 3s. We are in that zone now so I would keep an eye for momentum indicators. Although, this would be a v of 1 by my count so a new low would mean a fairly substantial retracement to follow.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-2 09:51 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

USDCHF alert USDCHF may be bttoming right on the 123.6 fib level on the long term to complete large wave "B" of a 4th wave correction, next we expect wave C up if it does bottom here, wave "B" does still have the option to continue lower to the 138.2 or 161.8 FIB extension though. So this is just a heads up for now... Keeps Your Eyes Peeled For The Reversal People... There is a Hammer formed already on the support level which makes me think the reversal is occouring right now ... Looks like price is trying for a bullish engulfing right now too...
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hefeiddd

EURJPY - I believe that this thing is in a large complex correction off of the 152.11 low. Expect price to come down to 154.78/155.60 (Fibo support) before a rally through 159.11 in wave Y
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hefeiddd

Nzd/Usd

Probable Wave -count ..........

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Only a Probability ! ............. Not cast in stone !
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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad

Probable Wave-count ..........

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Only a Probability ! ............. Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd

Probable Wave-count ..........

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Only a Probability ! ............. Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

Usd/Jpy

Probable Wave-count ..........

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Only a Probability ! ............. Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

Usdjpy USDJPY looks very nice right now for a short down to atleast 79.80 ..... Price is sitting just under what is the last probable trend line that could have provided possible support for price.. I think we're going to start heading down pretty fast, we're breaking out of a long term triangle... I entered short half position today ... I will be adding to shorts below 100.00, The Target is 79.80 --- Just a note for anyone reading... My stop on this trade is wide right now, just be careful in your own money management.. always know your risk before you enter a trade... This trade looks good, we see a lot of downside momentum on the monthly chart and I don't see any signs of a reversal..
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