一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Eur/Usd

Probable Wave -count ...............

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hefeiddd

Usdcad
Here's what I think is going on in USDCAD
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hefeiddd

The count still stands.

I've been warning people not to go long in hopes of an impulsive series. We're a while from what it appears to be (III) starting. It should be HUGE though. I think at the same time we'll probably see a huge collapse of the US Stock market.



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hefeiddd

Aud/nzd: Why The So-called Wave 3 Isn't Happening
I saw Jaime Saettele's report on AUD/NZD on January 23 expressing that "We have been patient but this pair is beginning to test that pateince" referring to the heaps of very bullish hype put out about AUD/NZD over several weeks by FXCM Research. They have used a Daily 10 year chart to suggest that the big decline from 1.2091 to 1.1149 wasa C wave completing a larger magnitude Wave 2 and as such that the Wave 3 projects to take the pair to above 1.2100.

Well another week has passed and not only has this long awaited Wave 3 still not begun but thee pair has sunk to its lowest level for some weeks. For me that was the cue to start taking a look at the bigger picture and the Weekly 3 year chart provided a completely different outlook on the pair that I'd very much want Jaime's assessment on.

If you look at the attached chart of that 3 year you will see I have identified a clear triangle formation whose A Wave completed in August 2006 at 1.2448, the B wave almost a year later at 1.1015 and the C wave in November last year at 1.2091. From this view it is clear that the decline since then was no "C Wave" at all but rather the first of 3 waves of Wave D and therefore the weak rally since was the second subwave. Since the high of that subwave on January 4 at 1.1594 we have seen the beginnings of the third and final wave to complete wave D of the multi year triangle as price action has fallen to current levels of 1.1359.

The lower trend line of the triangle comes in 1.0725 today but by the time the cross reaches it this will be more or less around the 1.10 mark before we see Wave E commence. Bearish 10 & 20 SMA's and a threatened bearish stochastic crossover on this same chart as well as moderatey downward MACD all conspire to support this projection.

Scrutiny (or agreement) invited!
Sincerely
Nick R
nickr2650



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hefeiddd

Hello everyone this is my count for GBP/USD. My target for the wave 5 is below 1.90.



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hefeiddd

EURUSD analysis
Hi guys,

I have made a long term and a shorter term count for euro, my main conclusion is that we are building an ending diagonal that will just fall short of the long term target at 1.5001 ... but we will see new high at 1,4991 ....
any remarks are welcome.




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hefeiddd

Eurusd
Sorry guys ..... here are the resized charts

I belive we will just fall short of the long term target at 1.5001 but we will
see a new high at 1.4991 ....

comments are welcome.
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hefeiddd

EURUSD top formation
Here is my analysis of the top formation in euro. The ending diagonal senario gives an upper limit to the last 5th at 1.5025 ..... my strategy is to sell ahead
of the 1.4991 target with stops above 1.5025 ..... It is however fairly cheap to include the case of a B-irregular as target for this is 1.5065 .... so stops at
1.5085 is probably the best R/R case.
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hefeiddd

Hey room... How's everybody been lately? I have a comment on danishfx's view on EUR/USD. The wave that you have labled as 'wave four' is a five wave move. Corrections come in three wave moves or some variation of that basic pattern. My interpretation of the move is that an irregular correction was formed there. I posted two charts below of what I think is happening. The first is of the weekly chart of the Euro. The second is just a picture of the different corrections that are out there. The price action in EUR/USD fits the example of an irregular correction pretty well.

Any comments on this? Happy Trading Everyone!Attached Images

hefeiddd

Is USD/CAD setting up for a big decline?
I can't see a real clear count on the medium term charts for USD/CAD, but I can see a crystal clear count on the medium term charts for Gold futures. Since the two are closely correlated, I've been using the two charts together to plan trades in USD/CAD.

Gold has recently broken out of the triangle that I believe was wave four of an impulse move. If that's the case, then price is in wave five higher right now. Furthermore, I can see a count that has wave five extending. Using that count Gold is moving higher in wave three of wave three of the larger wave five. Since these moves are usually pretty powerful, we may see gold prices shoot higher. If that happens, USD/CAD may fall pretty hard. I think everybody is on the same page with the short term USD/CAD count, in thinking at least another move down is coming soon. So this seems like a pretty high probability setup here.

Looking at the daily chart of USD/CAD, a bear flag has formed and looks ready to drop.

What do you all think?
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hefeiddd

Usdjpy Here's what I think is going on in USDJPY....
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hefeiddd

This is an update on USDCAD from last week... After the close on friday last week I posted looking for upward movement in USDCAD this week... Price is heading up now... I am currently long targeting the prior high at 1.0376. If price turns around before the high I will look to exit the long.Attached Images

hefeiddd

I'm with Danish here. The reason I don't favor Justy's count is when looking at a wave 4, while its true, there is no set rules and guidelines regarding time correlations between wave 2 and 4, I do tend to see a correlation between the two. By going by this count, you could see wave 2 and 4 both lasted 12 months. Justy's count has wave 2 lasting 12 months but wave 4 lasting only 6. Like I said, (before anyone jumps down my throat) I realize thee are no fixed rules and guidelines, but from my experience, this correlation happens way too often to ignore.

Also, that would put us in wave 5. A common fib level for the end of wave 5 is 162% of wave 4. That brings us to 4917. We have yet to close above this level. Another common fib level (which is the next in line) is 62% of wave 1 to 3 projected from wave 4. That brings us to 1.5095 so if we go to new highs, Id keep an eye on that level. Either way the last 2 line you see from the top (162% of wave 4 and 62% of waves 1 to 3) is a hot sopt for a reversal zone in my opinion.Attached Thumbnails









To Danish and Justy, my bad. I was a little sloppy on my analysis. Actually your both right so I will use this post to address you both.

Justy, Your are right, wave 4 is 5 waves down. That means that for my count to be correct, wave 3 actually would have to end with a truncated v of 5th wave which is still my favored count. (contrary to what people believe truncated 5ths are as much a part of EW as zigzags). So this is the only answer I have for you for now.

Danish, because wave 3 does indeed have a truncated 5th according to my count, I have to by default, adjust my fib level of 62% of wave 1 to 3 accordingly. This now brings us to 4845. (This is the cool part: Last months close wave 4847 and this months open was 4846. Also we are well on our way to having a bearish engulfment for the month...yes I know we have a little while before the month is over...but the numbers are still staggering...) Now, with these new price levels in place, I have a stronger belief that we may indeed have top.
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hefeiddd

Heads up guys,
The next move down on the Aussie looks about ready to begin. We've also retraced 78.2% of last weeks move so it could b now or never.
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hefeiddd

Gold is worth keeping an eye out as well. We could easily get our next move down now also.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Eur/Usd
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Only a Probability !.............Not Cast in Stone !

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hefeiddd

Usd/Yen

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Probable Wave-Count
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hefeiddd

marketwavez,

euro short term........I think we have five waves down of bigger wave A and now we are due to three waves up in bigger wave B...........but that just me Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi Brad,

Here's what I think is happening in USD/CAD. I can count five waves down that are followed by a three wave correction. If this count is correct, then the 100% extension is at ~0.9619 and the 161.8% extension is at ~0.9304. If price moves above 1.0127 I'll exit my short.

Happy Trading!Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi again Brad,

Below is a chart of what I'm watching on the very short term for USD/CAD. I can count waves 'A' and 'B' of the correction complete and it looks as though 'C' may be ending soon. Also, price is trading just under the 50.0% retracement of the most recent drop (1.0127-0.9945). If that drop is wave one of 3 or B, then this minor retracement is wave two of that bear leg. Wave two usually retraces to at least the 50.0% level. So we may see a reversal soon.Attached Images