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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:54 | 显示全部楼层
Eurusd
Dear trader

Do you think the 5th wave will complet at 1.382 fibo leve or eleswhere?

Stay well

rta
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:55 | 显示全部楼层
This seems to be the case - an expanding triangleAttached Thumbnails  

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:55 | 显示全部楼层
Here is , what i am getting for AUDUSD on the 5 min chart.Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
Hey everyone...sorry I haven't been around. Things have been so busy. Anyway, I want to alert everyone to an opportunity in AUDUSD. I think that a 4th wave ended at .9218 and that the AUDUSD is on its way to a new high to complete the entire rally from 2001.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:57 | 显示全部楼层
Aud/usd Hi,

I am looking to get strongly long in AUD as many have discussed its bullish count here.

But given that GOLD seems to be topping, I have put together a bearish count here, so now I am waiting for further price movement to see what to do next.

Please feel free to comment or point out any labelling errors.

Thanks.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:58 | 显示全部楼层
If you allow me to comment and please, no offence.
From looking at your chart, I do not see any charting errors, but I do not have as much experience in EW like other guys on this forum, so I do not consider myself an oracle by any means.
However, on the bigger picture scale AUDUSD looks bullish. i atached chart from the low in 2001, you can clearly see bullish advance.
If you blow this chart up from monthly to weekly to daily etc you will see that bullish argument is much stronger than bearish on all intervals of time.
Is this a valid argument? For me, it is.
But, anybody else, please comment; thanks in advance
MikeAttached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:03 | 显示全部楼层
Aud Usd
Here is what is happening, I think.
I believe that the outcome is pretty clear, but will refrain from voicing my opinion for fear of offending some sensitive souls here.
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:05 | 显示全部楼层
Chf/jpy
Hey guys,

Here's a possibility for CHF/JPY. The first chart is the 4-Hour showing an almost complete five wave move. Wave five is just about to break to new highs and should be ending soon.

The second chart is the daily chart showing a few things. The first is the A-B-C downside correction on the lefthand side of the chart. That tells us that the major trend is still up. The next thing to look at is the first impulse just after the large correction. While there is some wave i/iv overlap, on a closing basis there isn't any, which means the waves only overlapped each other on an intraday basis... which is OK. If you don't buy that, you can just call it a leading diagonal. The internal structure of the waves is bullish. Continuing to move to the right on the chart, you can see the next impulse move which I think is going to be wave i of 3.

So anyway, once we see wave i of 3 completed, it'll be time to start looking for a wave ii retracement and then a place to get long in what would be wave 3 of 3. Price should move pretty fast. The overall target is the 161.8% Fibo of wave 1, which is up at 108.99.

Any thoughts?
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:05 | 显示全部楼层
I'm seeing the same thing. It's lookin good. Wave two was a simple correction, so we could see some consolidation/triangle type of thing for wave four.

Waves one and three were exactly equal at 246 points. Therefore, according to EW guidlines, we may see wave five extend.Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:06 | 显示全部楼层
Does anybody have a good count for GBPUSD?
I am coming up with something like the chart below.
To me, it looks like minor wave 3 of 3 is finished, now we are into minor wave 4 of 3 , after that we have one more minor wave up and will see a significant retracement.
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:07 | 显示全部楼层
Rally in cable might be coming to an end. At least on a shorter time frame.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:07 | 显示全部楼层
eur/jpy
EUR/JPY looks interesting. If my count is correct then there is a lot of downside as we are in wave 3 of (iii) of bigger 3.

I'm watching it closely to see if a sell off on the cross would be a catalyst for a correction in EUR/USD. As I said it's interesting to see how it plays out.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:08 | 显示全部楼层
USD/JPY Due For a Bounce
Hey guys,

I know the long term triangle in USD/JPY isn't new to anyone, but here's another look at it anyway. Price has stalled right at triangle support. We should at least see some consolidaton or a bounce before the decline continues lower. But when it does roll back over, things could get exciting as price breaks out of the triangle.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:09 | 显示全部楼层
Further to your message, it looks like USDJPY has a huge potential to go down much deeper.
I include a weekly chart; no matter how I count waves, I see a long way down yet.
MikeAttached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:10 | 显示全部楼层
Much closer look at USDJPY on 5 min chart
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:10 | 显示全部楼层
Us Dollar

Usd/Chf - wave-count

Us Dollar is Oversold ...... Very Oversold ! ................
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
- May now be making an End of Wave 5 Low
-----------------------------------------------------------
Only a Probability ! ................. Not Cast in Stone !
-----------------------------------------------------
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:12 | 显示全部楼层
Aud/Usd :
Elliott Waves Formations at work ..........
Here is a Short-Term Wave-Count (2hr Bars )
-------------------------------------------------------

These charts are an illustration of what may be occurring
------------------------------------------------------------------
This is only a Probability ..........
Not Cast in Stone !
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If You disagree , That's Ok

Just Post your charts and state your case ..........
TIME will then tell all !....
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:15 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/Usd

Remember this chart from day before yesterday ?

- Now here we are this morning ,......

A Bull Flag was there Indeed .............

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
-------------------------------------------------------------------
This was posted in here early for all to see on 3/03/08

Original Post : Post # 4532
Click Here
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/showthread.php?t=13880&page=303
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NO NEWS WATCHING, NO HINDSITE , NO MEETINGS, & NO WAITING FOR REPORTS

It's all in the charts ,

----------------------------------------------------------------------
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:17 | 显示全部楼层
Here is a Cable short term 15 min chart. If 5 up from 1.9719 is complete, then 5 is a diagonal (overlapping). This would suggest a decline to at least 2.0060 to fully retrace the triangle. However, as I mentioned, this is a 3 of C -- so a linear move is also possibleAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 12:39 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/Usd
----------------------------------------
Wow!...............Success !....................
Here's the result from day before yesterday's chart post

(Both Targets have now been reached )
-------------------------------------------
See Original Post : # 4532
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/showthread.php?t=13880&page=303

Time to go Play Golf.........
-----------------------------------------
////////////////////////////////////////////////////Attached Thumbnails  

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