一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Usd/cad$
Jamie:

I am not comfortable abt this chart. Can you correct me if my reading is wrong?
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hefeiddd

Eur/chf
Hey guys,

The EUR/CHF may have bottomed finally. Within wave 5 of C, there are five smaller waves. So once we see five smaller waves to the upside, it's time to start looking for longs.
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Gbp/usd
Here is the daily chart of GBP/USD. I still think an expanded flat is still a possibility and that price is headed much higher.

If price is in a new bull cycle, then we are looking at an extended third wave. An initial target area would be the 161.8% fibo extension of wave one which is at 2.0365. So far, price has topped out at 2.0215. We are closing in pretty quickly on that 2.0365 target area.
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hefeiddd

Hey Mike,

IF a triangle was formed as wave B of the wave four correction, then this is how I see it. IF this is what is happening, then we should see a drop in what would be wave C before wave five gets underway.

I've got risk at 0.9245 for my existing long. The primary count is still bullish as long as price is above this level.

If the wave four correction ended as a simple zig-zag, then wave two and wave four are exactly the same. That doesn't follow the concept of alternation, so that is something in support of the triangle as wave B idea.

We'll just see what happens next week.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Here is my take on the AUDUSD.
Now, since the leg E of the triangle is finished, we should expect a breakout for at least 280 pips (the height of the triangle) from the top line of the triangle.
In other words, 0.963 target as a minimum.
have a nice weekend
MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

I hear your point.
You are saying that we might see another wave down, before we go up and that our triangle might break to the downside, before going up.
There are some pros and cons to that:
1. Rule of alternation is in support of this hypotheses.
2. At this time wave 4 low is ending in the area of former wave 4 of lesser degree, albeit only by few pips. (see my hi-lited area in yellow)
3. If we should see one more wave down (C wave) then wave 4 will need to be a 5-3-5 wave structure, which I don't see at the moment. But, hey, it is possible.

I guess, in summary what we are both saying is that we don't know if wave 4 is done yet. After wave 4 this pair will move up.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Hey Mike,

Here is another chart showing the correction. There are five waves down which would make wave 'A.' Wave 'B' is in the form of a running triangle. Wave 'C' would be underway now IF this is what is happening. Wave 'C' should be a five wave move, as you have said.

The previous wave four of one lesser degree terminated at 0.9111, which is still 163 points away from current price levels. So IF this is what is happening, then there is plenty of downside left.

At this point in time I'm supporting the triangle idea for one reason. As you said in your previous post, price is definately in wave four and will be going higher. So, the further it goes down, the further it will go up. Should make for a nice trade.Attached Images









I think your count incorrect

Look at this chart
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hefeiddd

Hey Guys,

Yeah EUR/JPY is looking pretty good. On the long term, it's in the same boat as USD/JPY. Both are just finishing major fourth wave corrections and are setting up for a nice decline. Looking at the charts below, the first is the USD/JPY and the second is EUR/JPY. The USD/JPY is there just for comparison. The two currencies have been trading pretty much in lockstep since the huge decline that started back in 1975. In April of 1995, both currencies began their initial fourth wave rally. Now in June/July of 2007, both have peaked and are now heading lower. Furthermore, both are pushing up against a major support line. We may see things drop pretty fast as that line is broken.

The way I'm counting things, the EUR/JPY formed an expanded flat in place of wave four. Like I said above, that goes well with the triangle setup in USD/JPY. Two different types of corrections both telling the same story. By the way GBP/JPY is trading the same as well, so we are seeing JPY strength across the board.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Jimbo, exact view here.

EURJPY looks to have finished minor 2 wave as correction at 159.20, if so, wave 3 of 3 of bigger 3 should accelerate soon and target 140s area eventually.

I took shorts at 159, hence closed all shorts at 156.65, now I am willing to reset on a bounce to 158 or 157.80.

What is your plan with this cross? Also would like to hear experts commentary on EURJPY. It's a beautiful cross anyway Attached Images

hefeiddd

GBP\CHF ,question
Jamie , marketwavez2 , AdrianEI,
and any one else,,,

I read Jamie's artical - "British Pound Crosses Show Signs of Reversing
Wednesday, 05 March 2008 21:18:08 GMT" ,
and I folow the count that seems good , but going into smaller time frame ( 1hr) , Im short one more leg down to complit wave v,of (iii), of 3 (all in blue on the dayli chart that Jamie pablished) ,

what do you all think ?
I will right or wrong ?

thanks,,,,,
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hefeiddd

Loonie
Here is my count on the USDCAD pair - the first chart is weekly, the next two charts explore inside the pattern on a daily basis plotting the subwaves. As this count is entirely different to the counts of the others in this forum I would like you to comment on it so that I get any feedback. Thank you
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hefeiddd

Hey Briskman,

Welcome to the forum! This is a pretty good place to come and share your ideas and to see what everybody else is thinking.

It looks like you are overall bearish on the EUR/JPY, as is most everybody else here, so that's good. Here's a chart that shows how I'm counting recent price action. It looks like this week we'll be starting wave (iii) of (3), so the decline should accelerate as we bust through a support area that's sitting at ~155.00.

Keep posting your charts!Attached Images






Hi Sadique,

The count that most of us here are following shows that one more high is required to complete a five wave rally that began back in Jan. at 0.8511. Furthermore, this five wave advance is the end of a large A-B-C correction that began way back in April 2001 (visible on the monthly chart). As Jamie has said before, tops and bottoms in the currencies and commodities tend to be blow off moves, meaning that this fifth wave has a good chance of rocketing higher.

Below is a chart showing the rally that began in Jan off of 0.8511. You can see that so far waves 1 through 4 are complete and that wave five is in the works right now.
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hefeiddd

EURJPY waves
Hi everyone!
Very good forum, thx to everyone for contribuing effectively.
I'm not an elliottwave expert, so i'm learning.
Here is my count for the EURJPY!



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hefeiddd

Thanks! you encourage me here
All improvement to the count and charts would just be in our benefit. and this is the first forum I see of this kind that talks about EW very widely like this.

I've been thinking (whether this is right or wrong) that AUDUSD is forming much similar thing to what EURUSD did. But yet audusd to break in what I think is "e" outside the triangle to form wave 5.. way way higher than 0.95

I posted both EUR, AUD charts .. what do you think?
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hefeiddd

Eur/gbp
Good Morning, guys
Here is what I think about EURGBP.
It looks like a really nice setup on the daily chart.
Any comments?
Mike
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hefeiddd

Justy
You were absolutely correct in you assessment of AUDUSD. Good work.
It surely looks like we are in wave C now; let's see how low it goes before it reverses.
Bottom of wave 4 of lesser degree was 0.9111
Also, 0.9111 is a number that Jamie mentioned.
Mathematically, wave C will be equal to wave A at the level of 0.9103, which is really close to 0.9111
wave A was 280 pips
wave B was 167 pips (60 %, close to Fib 61.8)
wave C is 280 pips at 0.9103Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usd/Yen

Whoot !............... There it is !....
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-5 15:44 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Only a Probability !............ Not Cast in Stone!........

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-5 15:45 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Aud/Usd
Pg-2..............
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-5 15:45 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Usd/Cad :

Ooops !................... !
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-5 15:46 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Usd/Cad :
Elliott Waves Formations at work ..........
Here is a Short-Term Wave-Count (4hr Bars )
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These charts are an illustration of what may be occurring
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This is only a Probability .......... Not Cast in Stone !
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If You disagree , That's Ok

Just Post your charts and state your case ..........
TIME will then tell all !....
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Usd/Yen

Intra day Wave-Count Update ............
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Only a Probability !............Not Cast in Stone !
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-5 15:56 编辑 ]