一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

USDJPY should see 104 soon -- this is the former 4th and the 38.2 fib. A larger upward correction is possible though. The 50% is at 105
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hefeiddd

Mike , there is no Gap in the Euro/Usd right now ........

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hefeiddd

Expect additional gains short term. We need a push through 2.0220 to complete wave C under my preffered short term count (see the techs today for more on that). I expect a top close to 2.04. Longer term, the entire rally from 1.7047 can be counted as an impulse. Wave 5 is a perfect ending diagonal (overlapping and each subwave consists of 3). Ending diagonals are usually fully retraced. This would place the GBPUSD low for this year near 1.85. Interestingly, if we project an end to this rally at 2.0350 (about), then the 100% extension from there would be exactly 1.8515. There will be one heck of a shorting opportunity soon...but be patient.Attached Images

hefeiddd

In long term I'm sticking with my prefered count for a move down to the previous wave 4 of larger degree or 1.70's area.

Of course I could be wrong Attached Images

hefeiddd

Cable looks promising to the down side. Not like the euro which I have to admit is not clear to me at the moment and I'm having hard time getting positioned for a short trade.
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hefeiddd

Gold from early 2003

Here is a look at Gold form 2003
when I was just starting out applying Elliott Waves to charts

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I had not the confidence at the time to take such a trade ,
- but it has now played itself out to be a thing of beauty......

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hefeiddd

Here's a couple charts to look at. The first is a possible count of Gold futures that shows that there may still be much higher prices to come. The second chart is of AUD/USD and while not necessarily an EW count, it does show that price may be on the verge of breaking out of a bull flag.

If we see Gold continue to move higher and AUD/USD price move above the bull flag, the 5th wave rally we're all waiting for may finally get moving.
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hefeiddd

Gbpusd
Hi everyone... I just couldn't leave the forum hanging... lol I'm in florida and loving it I saw on the news my part of Ontario got a whole bunch of snow .. looks like I got here just in time Anyway, when I left I was thinking about getting long GBPUSD for a while to come, so I had to hop online and have a look at it.... It looks like it's ready to go a lot higher to me... So here's the chart everyone ... Enjoy...

Anyone still holding short USDJPY ?? I am... looks promising still.. Just gotta have patience....
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Hi Gizmo... Glad you had fun shovelling my share of snow .. I can't stand the winter .. I can only handle so much before I run for cover.. Anyway, I think you're good with your long for now.. Just watch out for resistance at the 2.0462 area, it's the 61.8 retracement of the entire decline from the top... What I had labelled yesterday as large wave 2 may only be Wave "A" within wave 2... And we may now be in a wave "B" upward. Given the visible diagonal triangle on the chart though, my bias remains to the upside in wave 3... Safest way to play it is just remain long and move your stops to break even or profits as we go up, we know this chart is in a long term uptrend so we only want to take long positions in this pair.. Just be ready to exit that long for profits if this pair reverses at 2.0462, there is a possability that it could head lower in a large wave "C" yet... If it does there will be an even bigger buy opportunity at the end of that move.. It's all about probabilities.. We've always got to think what can happen and where.. If we start closing above the 2.0462 area on a daily basis there is no doubt in my mind we will see a new high... My bias remains for wave 3 up... I've got my fingers crossed... Here's another chart of what could be playing out.... This is my secondary count for now..
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hefeiddd

Gpb/usd
My count....
wave 5 red = 61,8% of wave 1-3 ...target 2,0278
wave 5 black = 61,8 of wave 1-3 ...target 2,0250

my entry short is at 2,0250

Please comment....

Sorry for my english.....
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hefeiddd

Eurusd
Are we forming the ending diagonal in EURUSD?
It certainly looks like we are.
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hefeiddd

Gbp/usd
Hey Guys,

The 2.0400 area also coincides with the underside of that major support line. It's common to see old support tested as new resistance. So I agree that we will see price get up to that area.
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Loonie
Despite no one paying attention to my USDCAD count, I continue posting updates on it:
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hefeiddd

Eurcad Monthly
Anyone paying attention to EURCAD ?? Take a look at the monthly chart... This pair looks like it's about to penetrate a long term down trend line and blast upward in a massive wave 3 that will last years.... I've been waiting on this for a long time now... Have patience .. I will only only buy this pair after a monthly close above the down trend line.
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hefeiddd

Hi Jaime.. Here's a few charts for you.... What you have labelled as your wave 1,2 from the bottom is actually not waves 1,2 ... It can't be... If you count back into the large wave "C" decline you will notice you have missed the waves 4 and 5 in larger wave 5 of wave "C" .. I believe you missed it because it is truncated.. But if you look at the end move of that huge wave "C" you should notice it.. By your counting it would emply that the wave 5 of C was a 3 wave move to complete the decline which wouldn't be right. It needs to be 5 waves to complete the 5th of the 5th... The fact that the last wave was truncated makes it hard to notice...

Maybe we get another decline, but after Seeing the vertical thrust upward on the weekly, I bet against it for now Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gbpusd... Jaime
Jaime .. I also see another possability here in GBPUSD because of where I see the channel lines on the monthly... We could head back to the high and then turn around and head right back to the low in a large correction that will take sometime to play out.... Here's one more chart...
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hefeiddd

It looks like an ending diagonal in EURUSD
See my yellow circle indicating breakdown.
I am going short.
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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd

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Short-Term Wave Count ......

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Only a Probability! ..........Not Cast in Stone!

( See Chart Below )
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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd
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Wave "C" rally in progress
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As explained here : Read Post #4640 and #4644
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Original Post


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hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd

and the "C" Wave rally continues ........... !
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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd
CHART UPDATE :

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hefeiddd

Hey Guys,

It's possible that one more small low is required in EUR/CHF before the large expanded flat will really be completed. The small wave iv of 5 of 'C' may be a flat correction. Of course the short term price action will let us know, but it's just something to look at.

There are two charts below showing daily price action of both GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF. The two currencies have been trading with similiar patterns for some time now. The recent declines (visible on daily charts) both began the exact same day. Also, while the wave counts are different, the short term rallies and declines were in sync with each other.

It looks pretty clear that GBP/CHF needs one more small drop (below 2.0428) in small wave 'v' of 5 to finish the decline. So since GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF have been trading so closely, it makes sense to also see another low in EUR/CHF before the decline is finally completed.
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