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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:33 | 显示全部楼层
cable count
we are now in wave 3 of C and this will be confirmed if the previous high of 1.9970 is taken out. then minimum expectations will be wave1 = wave 3 which will be around 2.03
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:34 | 显示全部楼层
Hello Market
Thanks for your post. My GBPUSD diagram is different; please see below.
I am careful with the overlap of wave 1 and 4. I even drew a blue line to make sure that there is no interference, haha.
We don't want to open the Pandora Box with small overlaps again.
MikeAttached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:35 | 显示全部楼层
Euro/Usd
( 1hr bars )
Here is a look at today's Euro Wave-count
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Here is a look at what may be occurring ......
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Only a Probability ! ....... Not Cast in stone !
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
cable update
wave iv is forming now and is expected to retrace b/w 23.6% and 32.8% of wave iii before a push above 1.997 to complete wave v.

when wave v completes i will look for a considerable pull back to reenter my long position.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:37 | 显示全部楼层
Please see my sketch belowAttached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:38 | 显示全部楼层
Is the correction finshed? It certainly appears that way.
Or are we still waiting to see 1.989?Attached Thumbnails
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:39 | 显示全部楼层
I'd like to see a restest of 1.9890 where there is a lot of confluence such as 32.8 fib level, top of wave (e) of B of 4 and also a former resistance which now should act as support.

I'm a bit confused though. I went back and cheched Chucky's count for cable and it looks like he's having today's upmove as wave 3 of C where I see wave 5 of C.


Chucky, do you mind posting 1H chart ?

ThanksAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:39 | 显示全部楼层
Aud/jpy
Hey guys,

I think that an expanded flat could still be forming for the wave two correction in AUD/JPY. If so, then it should be just about finished. The 161.8% Fibo of wave one gives us an 817 point target for the wave three decline.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:40 | 显示全部楼层
Eur/jpy
Here's another chart of the JPY crosses supporting another little move higher in AUD/JPY. This one is the EUR/JPY. One more high is required to complete wave 'C' of the wave two correction. This upcoming wave three will be a nice trade as well with a target of 885 points (161.8% Fibo).

Happy Trading.
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Aud/usd
Well my fourth wave triangle idea went bust today and I missed that nice rally. But not to worry, the bull run is confirmed with five small waves to the upside and a correction should be forming now that will offer a good place to enter this trade. I'm looking to get long at ~0.9300 or so with risk at 0.9215.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:41 | 显示全部楼层
Usd Chf
I think that I have an idea, what is happening with USDCHF now, as we are in Wave 4. It looks like a triangle to me; this time I made sure that I am getting all legs in 3 waves, LOL, thanks for pointing it out.
If you guys are long (for once, i am), i will be getting out around 1.04
Mike
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:44 | 显示全部楼层
EUR/GBP.........looks like an ending diagonal to me.

What do you guys think ?
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:45 | 显示全部楼层
Usd/cad
There are five waves down on the short term charts in USD/CAD. We can expect at least one more drop to new lows below 0.9834 in what could be either a wave 'B' or a wave 3.

I agree with the chart that Picolo posted the other day showing price heading lower in wave 3 of 3 (visible on 4 Hour & Daily charts). The price of commodities are continuing to rise, so I can easily see the CAD continuing to strengthen against the USD.

On the chart attached, wave three was extended and waves one and five were equal to each other within 6 points. Elliott Wave proving itself yet again.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:46 | 显示全部楼层
I am sorry guys, I went to sleep. it is a 1 hr chart and that is what I am posting now. wave v should be completing now unless it is extending which i doubt since wave iii extended. like i said earlier, i will be looking for a correction soon to between 1.9850 - 1.9900 or maybe down to 1.9800 ( 61.8%) to renter the longAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:47 | 显示全部楼层
cable
this is my close up count for cable. first is a 15 min chart and second is the 1 hr chart. expecting one more high to possibly test 2.00 b4 retracing to about 1.9850 region.
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:48 | 显示全部楼层
hi mike,

seems the boat has sailed. if my count is correct, i will be expecting another retracement b4 another low after the completion of this thrustAttached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:50 | 显示全部楼层
Remember this chart from yesterday afternoon ?
- Now here we are this morning ,......

A Bull Flag was there Indeed .............

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:50 | 显示全部楼层
gbpjpy
wave v of c is on now. looking to flip my position to short 209.00. that will be near the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 213.50
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:51 | 显示全部楼层
cable
guys,

my updated count on cable. since i believe gbpjpy is going higher, cable will most likely play out the scenario i am presenting. thus i am expecting resistance around the 2.01 level
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:52 | 显示全部楼层
chukky,

cable stopped almost exacly where it was supposed to. I'm keeping an eye on that upper resistance trendline. Sure if it's broken we'll see 2.0100Attached Images
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-5 11:53 | 显示全部楼层
Aud/usd
Hey guys,

Here's a possibility for AUD/USD. Wave two may be complete and price could be turning higher now. It looks like wave two could have been a flat correction. Wave C ended right in the territory of the previous wave four of one lesser degree.

Any thoughts?
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