一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Here's how I'm counting the Cable. Looking at the weekly chart, I start the count from the 12 March 2006 price bar rather than the lows made just prior to that bar. The decline ending with the 12 March bar was wave 'C' of an expanded flat which I believe ended with a truncated fifth.Attached Images








Brad,

I'm curious about the wave you labled as 5 (Green Numbers). How do you see that as an impulse wave. All I can see is an A-B-C.
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hefeiddd

Here's a different angle on USDCHF Justy..... I think we're in a large wave 4 correction right now, when this large B wave ends I expect price to come back above 1.3284 to complete wave C of the fourth wave. I think we should be nearing the bottom of this decline sometime not too far up the road.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Special Note :
If you were thinking this is a Leading Diagonal Pattern
then Ponits #1 , Point #2 and Point #5 are
to touch the upper channel Resistance line
- this is not the case in your chart post
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See Example diagram below diagram belowAttached Images

hefeiddd

BRAD1199 ,
YOU STILL HAVE WAVE 4 OVER LAPPING WAVE 1
in your 2 charts you just posted .... WHY is this ? ...........

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Did you read that beautiful post by Justy
yesterday that explains this very well ? >
( here is a copy of diagram that Justy has provided )
See below :Attached Thumbnails








Brad1199
please observe this .............
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hefeiddd

AUD/NZD - Nice Setup
Hey guys,

Has anybody noticed the short term setup in AUD/NZD? There is a picture perfect five wave upside move that was completed today. When wave three is extended, waves one and five usually equal each other. Waves one and two were only 2 points away from being equal. Price action on all scales is incredibly bullish. Price is in wave (3) of iii of 3.

There is an immediate opportunity to the short side with minimal risk (if you're into that sort of thing), and an awesome trade setup to the long side once the correction completes. the 161.8% extension shows an initial target of just over 500 points.
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Eur/jpy
EUR/JPY is setting up nicely as well. I'm looking to sell the wave four bounce (~158.00 - ~158.50). Jamie's Weekly Trade idea puts EUR/JPY in a 3 of 3 to the downside, so we could see this one drop pretty fast. If nothing else, the rally off of 152.10 is clearly corrective, so we will at least see price drop through there. That level is over 500 points away from current price.

Good Stuff.
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hefeiddd

Brad ,
you seem to have a interest in the Chf/Jpy

So, here is a look at it ( 1/2 hr bars ) ............
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A simple End of Wave 4 may be occurring ?
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hefeiddd

Cable Daily Chart
Since everyone is analyzing cable, i think it's my turn now.
My count on the daily chart assumes that we r still in W4 which sould print 2.0016 before dropping for a new Low (W5). My projection for W5 is 1.9077 Bid but this will take some time.
Chart attached.
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hefeiddd

Hello guys
Danish, I don't disagree with you. your argument makes sense.
Here is few numbers I have been looking at.
I would like to add few other possibilities yet:

1. In this wave formation, which is developing now and will terminate probably this week as wave 5. My target is in excess of 1.5660, which is 1.4910 plus 750 pips.
Rationale: According to Elliott, triangle breakout must be at least the breakout point (1.4910) plus the height of the beginning of the triangle. So, possibly we will see a number closer to 1.57 or higher as the completion of this wave structure, before it corrects, after which it will go higher again.

2. As far, as other possibilities, I am getting values much larger.
If we take the low number from 1985 (0.6425) and the rally until 1992 with the value of 1.4578, the difference was 0.8157
If we add 0.8157 to the current wave that started in 2000 at 0.8256, we get a target of 1.6413

3. Another possibility: In this wave structure that started in 2000 and still continues, we have 3 waves:
Wave 1 from 2000-2004 with the value from 0.8194 to 1.3652 for a total of 0.5458
Wave 2 from Dec 2004 till Nov 2006 from the high of 1.4652 to the low of 1.1613 for a total value of 1890 pips
Wave 3 from Nov 2006 until now, not complete yet.
If wave 3 is equal to wave A, I am getting the target of 1.7091

I know, it will take a while, maybe few months.
But, on the other hand I checked the P&F pattern on stokcharts and the target value for the Euro index is 222, so maybe I am not insane after all?Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

After my eding diagonal was proven wrong at 1.5025 .... i have reconsidered what is persived to be a triangel .... i actually think its just a series of 1st and 2nd waves ...... see attached chart .... commments please.

Using a logarithmic scale the target of the final 5th in the move from 0.8226 is 1.6395 (calculated as 61.8% of the procentage change from 0.8226 to 1.3666).Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Gbp
Hey guys,

GBP/USD is still consolidating, but it looks like the breakout is near. I've got two counts that I'm working with. The first is a triangle and the second is that a series of 1st and 2nd waves have been unfolding for the larger fifth wave. Both counts are obviously bullish.

One item of interest though... Wave one was 346 points long and wave two was 357 points long. Wave three is bigger than wave one, so the requirement for wave three not being the shortest is met. However, the guidlines of EW state that if waves one and two are about equal in length, the fifth wave will more than likely be extended.

Looking back to that diagram that market posted showing wave length relationships, a possible target for an extended fifth wave would be up around ~2.0750. (161.8% of net travel of waves one through three.) That number seems a little high, but the possibility is there.
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hefeiddd

Eur/chf
Hi Jamie,

What do you think about EUR/CHF? I see one more decline below 1.5695 completing the entire five wave decline that began back in October.
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hefeiddd

Eur/chf
That fourth wave correction could be complete as well. Of course five waves to the downside will confirm this, but the decline may be underway now.

EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY are trading pretty much in lockstep, and it looks to me like EUR/JPY is headed lower again.
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hefeiddd

Nzd Usd
Hello guys
Here is my count for NZDUSD.
My target will be close to 0.78
Mike
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hefeiddd

Heya, justy!

Enjoying your counts as usual.

My only problem with this is the wave 'i' which I see as in three waves. For me as an alternate the i-ii is still a "d-e" fromt he triangle that ends thw w-x-y complex for the bigger 4th since the october.

This interpretation comes from how it worked on the EURJPY excellent for me - bigger picture both pair were tracing out similar patterns since january lows, but the ending on 26-feb was with a new high in EURJPY, while with a failure in the e wave for EURCHF.

In that case, we might have had all of the push in one straight line. That's an alternate i consider in the EURCHF.Attached Images







eurjpy
first leg of the bigger move over in eurjpy? time to trace out the correction? thats a 60 min chart.

can easily make another low though cause an extension within an extension can always occur...

thoughts?
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hefeiddd

eurusd
quite the same as Jamie's, except now looks like a possibility the rally today was in a b wave of an expanded correction. the elliot channel comes into play nicely around these levels tomorrow, so might be a nice buy with the channel line, the wave interpretation and the recent support, which could give way slightly, for the eur to reverse right after that.... that's if this one is anywhere close to being true.
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Not sure, must say. Cause I'm not sure about where this 5 wave fits in the bigger picture. But a weekly like this one is possible, right? Question then is if we're actually not in for a real chf and yen rally... and it is easily possible this low is actually not a low for the run since october, but just a beginning still... lots of possibilities... so I'll only see when the rally that's now taken place will hold for a while....

I must say I'm not trading the EURCHF, almost never, but just keeping track of everything to have a feel....
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hefeiddd

US Dollar
wave -count

Justy , Brad
here are 3 charts of the Us Dollar ..............
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You see , it's now in a range ..............
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-5 08:52 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

US Dollar
wave -count

Justy ,
here are 3 charts of the Us Dollar .................
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hefeiddd

EUR/JPY possible terminus
A quite posible end for the current small five wave advance could be the 158.00 - 158.20 area. As you can see this area is guarded by the presence of the

1) 200MA
2) a 38.2% retracement
3) a 0.68 extension of wave 1 through wave 3.
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hefeiddd

Very possible that the GBPUSD is completing a triangle right now. The bull move that is expected would probably test at least 2.01
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hefeiddd

Usd/Cad

TODAYS UPDATE :.............1st Target now reached .......
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This was posted in here early for all to see on 2/29/08

Original Post : Post # 4348
click here
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...13880&page=290

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NO NEWS WATCHING, NO HINDSITE , NO MEETINGS, & NO WAITING FOR REPORTS

It's all in the charts ,

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