一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Gbp/Usd :
Elliott Waves Formations at work ..........
Here is a Mid-Term Wave-Count ( 4hr Bars )

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Price appears to be exhausting itself
and may moving toward s an End of Wave 5
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These charts are an illustration of what may be occuring
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This is only a Probability .......... Not Cast in Stone !
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If You disagree , That's Ok

Just Post your charts and state your case ..........
TIME will then tell all !....
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hefeiddd

cable count
this is my count for cable
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hefeiddd

It seems your count has an overlap between i/iv .... have a look at my recent count .... i'm also looking for a correction ....

please comment !!Attached Images








EURUSD close up
Here is a more detailed analysis .... the count seems to be near perfection :-)
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hefeiddd

EURUSD perfect Short Right Now
With EURUSD being only a hundred and something pips away from the high... It looks like the perfect short to me... I've entered a short position on today's open with a stop just above the high... My position isnot overly sized yet... Once this pair proves itself to me I'll be looking to add...

I think this is the top of wave 1 in a larger wave 3... My target right now will be the 61.8 retracement of the entire rally... however price may find support before that, so I will just have to keep my eyes peeled... I was going to wait for this pair to break downside support before entering .. But it looks like there is very decent resistance over head and right now a short can be covered with a fairly tight stop... So I'm all in ! This count is a little different than charts I have posted previously for this pair but the outcome remains the same....
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hefeiddd

Us Dollar -----

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Probable Wave-count

Danish ,
this is the most important chart I'm watching for the next 3 -4 days of trading
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Big Mike ,
I now see the rally you speak of ,
but this price spike still is not apparent the the Daily Bars of the Dow Jones yet ,................

If , this is the beginning of some sustainable strength in Stocks as you have pointed out
then maybe if the Us Dollar can start to turn upwards , Stocks can then get a real internal boost
( and as usual Asian Stock Markets will follow what ever happens in the US Session )

GOING FORWARD,
A STRONG RALLY IN THE US DOLLAR GOING FORWARD
WOULD REALLY BOOST THE STOCK MARKET BULLS ....... Let's watch and see .....

I know that Silver and Gold and Platinum are overbought right now .
So this should be an interesting week for the US Dollar starting tomorrow .
- Alot of people may be buying in on Gold at a Short-Term Top ....

( Does you have a Gold or Silver chart of 3 Years Daily Bars or less ? )
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hefeiddd

Usd/Yen :
Elliott Waves Formations at work ..........
Here is a Short-Term Wave-Count ( 2hr Bars )
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These charts are an illustration of what may be occurring
------------------------------------------------------------------
This is only a Probability .......... Not Cast in Stone !
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If You disagree , That's Ok

Just Post your charts and state your case ..........
TIME will then tell all !....
Attached Thumbnails







Usd/Cad :
Elliott Waves Formations at work ..........
Here is a Short-Term Wave-Count ( 15min Bars )
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These charts are an illustration of what may be occurring
------------------------------------------------------------------
This is only a Probability .......... Not Cast in Stone !
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If You disagree , That's Ok

Just Post your charts and state your case ..........
TIME will then tell all !....
Attached Thumbnails

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-3 10:46 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

eur/usd
Euro......it looks like a big wedge to me. I favour the down side with a more agressive target - low point of the wedge (which by the way from technical point of view is bearish pattern) or somewhere in the mid 1.44 area.
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hefeiddd

Hey Jimbo,
I agree with your assessment of the Euro. Gold is looking very topish as well. Also, the Usd/Jpy is showing peculiar price action. Sometimes when a correction has been going on as long as in the Usd/Jpy, the intial 5 wave impulse out of the correction could be camouflaged. So heres a heads up to anyone who may not have noticed this. I almost missed it myself. We may finally be about to break out of the long overdue correction. If this is the case, expect a very exciting morning.Attached Thumbnails






Cable
Hello Room!

Here is my count on the short term Cable. Please feel free to criticize as I'm trying to learn, also if any of you looked at my post of the Loonie on Friday (post #4044) please give me any feedback as I'd like to be able to help contribute to the forum.

I'm looking to go long on a fractal break near the 38-50% zone. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks. Cheers.

John
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hefeiddd

Nzd Usd
Good Morning Guys;
I shorted NZDUSD last night. Had to suffer through some grief, as it went up about 50 pips until now.
I attach the NZDUSD chart below. It shows clearly 5 waves are completed. All technical indicators turned negative since last Friday.
Price action hasn't followed YET, but it will; there is very little doubt.
To me, the current value of 0.81 looks like a significant top.
Mike
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Eur/usd
Hey everybody,

I'm posting the EUR/USD count that I'm following. It seems that a few people in this forum are using the same count as well. One of the few times since I've been reading and posting here that people have actually come to an agreement! Anyway, I see five waves up with an extended third. A retracement is due to about the 50.0%-61.8% which is around 1.4600-1.4650. Those levels are also right where wave four terminated, so that's a high probability area.

In my book, that five wave advance has completed wave (i) of larger wave (5). The 161.8% extension shows wave three as being about 680 points. Should be a nice trade in the next few weeks.
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hefeiddd

Eur/gbp
I still think that price has to make one more high to somewhere above 0.7613 to complete the larger wave (3). It's possible that the last leg higher is now in progress. The count I have below shows wave (i) and A and B of (ii) completed. One more small drop will complete wave (ii) and give way to a rally that would take price to new highs.
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hefeiddd

Usd/cad
Hi guys,

As of late I havn't been able to get a clear picture of what's going on with the USD/CAD, as far as the daily time frame goes anyway. However, I do have a good idea of what's going on with the CAD/JPY. On 06November2007 CAD/JPY topped out and proceded to fall. The pattern that followed has been a very clear three wave correction. And as it is with corrections, the high that was made on 06November2007 will eventually be exceeded.

Just as CAD/JPY topped out at the beginning of November, USD/CAD bottomed the very same day. Neat huh? Obviously the two pairs are moving in tandem. Since we are looking for higher prices in CAD/JPY we are also looking for lower prices in USD/CAD.

Aside from Elliott Wave analysis, the daily chart of USD/CAD shows a couple of things: First, price is just points away from breaching a very strong support line. Second, a somewhat clear head and shoulders pattern has been formed.

All points to lower price in USD/CAD. Happy Trading.
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hefeiddd

Gbpusd Hourly
Here is a possibility for GBPUSD on the hourly bar chart ...
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hefeiddd

I am also long EURGBP, but my wave count is slightly different that I posted here on the weekend. Final peak at 0.761 is the same as yours.
But the recent price action (last 12 hours) might put my count into question or as a minimum has not confirmed my chart, as of yet.
Mike.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Hi Brad,

I'm seeing the same thing you are in the GBP. Below is what I think is going on short term. Price looks set to rally soon in wave five.Attached Images






I agree with you again. When I trade on the short term time frames, I'm wrong pretty much most of the time. I can't seem to figure out the setups until they are already over. Therefore, I just dont trade short term.

Anyway, here's another possibility for the GBP.
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hefeiddd

I think the longer term (Daily and Weekly) charts for GBP/USD are pretty clear. I brought this up a few weeks ago (post #3809), but I think it still holds true.

The first chart below shows weekly price action. I see five waves up, with the third wave being extended, and an irregular correction.

The second chart is a closer look at the irregular correction. I think that the correction ended on 21Jan2008 at 1.9336. I'm counting the rally off of 1.9336 as wave one, and the subsequent decline as wave two of the next impulse move that will eventually take price much higher.

I think this is actually the buy of the year as new highs are still 1500 points away from current levels.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eur/Usd

Elliott Waves = The Understanding of Core Geometric Shapes and Lines ......
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Does History ever Repeat itself ? ............

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Let's see what becomes of this Formation ................

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hefeiddd

Usd/Yen
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Wow!...............Success !....................
Here's the result from yesterday's chart post

Both Targets have been reached -
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See Original Post : # 4108
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...13880&page=274

Gain +70 Pips
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Time to go Play Golf.........
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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd
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Wow!...............Success !....................
Here's the result from yesterday's chart post

Both Targets have been reached -
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See Original Post : # 4150
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...13880&page=277

Gain +66 Pips
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Time to go Play Golf.........
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hefeiddd

I wrote about this last week, saying that wave 3 of 5 is underway from 1.4614. Risk can now be moved to 1.4778...objective is close to 1.5200.Attached Images

hefeiddd

This is exactly the reason why I wrote Friday that "Also, I know that it is tempting to short now. Some might. I have a rule that I NEVER EVER NEVER EVER completely reverse a position. I will move to flat, but not go from being long to short or vice versa. It saves me from potentially demoralizing circumstances. "

Now, the count has changed and it is unlikely that price comes back much at all. I am treating the drop to 1.9615 yeterday as wave ii of C. Near term support is at 1.9690/1.9720.Attached Images