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MACD俱乐部»论坛 › ◇ 技术分析区 ◇ › 〖期货技术交流〗 › 一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手
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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:06 | 显示全部楼层
Gbpusd I've got a new suggestion for GBPUSD .... This decline is deep and fast... It feels just like a wave 2... From looking at the long term count there is a good possability that it is a large wave 2 down.. If this is the case .. We should find decent support around the 61.8 fib level... (That doesn't mean it will be right on the fib level, It's an area we're looking for not an exact number) I will be looking for the buy of the century when this decline ends... The wave 3 up will be unimaginably huge ! For now I sit on the side lines ... To all that hold long positions in this pair at the moment.. Consider yourselves warned.. This pair will continue to decline... I no longer think this decline is a WAVE "A" down ... This is a fast downward correction in a large wave 2...
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:10 | 显示全部楼层
cable
my prefered count for cable
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:11 | 显示全部楼层
gbpjpy
my count for the gbpjpy.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:12 | 显示全部楼层
Here is what I think going on in EUR/GBP. The impulsive move in my opinion is wave c of (b) of larger 4.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:13 | 显示全部楼层
And euro.....the overlapping waves just doesn't fit as an impulsive move. That's way I expect down move to complete wave c of (c). That count somehow correspond with a lower eur/gbp. Let's see.....


P.S. In order the count to be valid resistance should hold at .78% or 1.4725/26 area.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:14 | 显示全部楼层
Cable is the most difficult to count right now but I think it's near completion of wave c of (b). There might be another push lower though.

In a perfect world euro should be coming down while pound is rising over the next couple of days. But we all know there is no such thing as perfect world
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:14 | 显示全部楼层
From my limited learning knowledge I would believe your counts and now that I look back at what I was trying, yours definitely make better sense than mine did.

However, looking at the MACD and RSI for this pair, their is some pretty good negative divergence happening to support your chart. Attached Images
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:15 | 显示全部楼层
GBP View for today
I view up for today.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:16 | 显示全部楼层
Hey guys,
I se Gold in an ENDING DIAGONAL. Those who trade it, beware. This could be forecasting market tops for many markets including Euro.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:17 | 显示全部楼层
cable
watch the 38.2% and 50% retrace level closely. a good buy point.
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Eur/usd
Updating...

I'm waiting ending diagonal for wave 5;
time wave 5 = time wave 1 ;
wave 5 = 61,8% of wave 0-3 ;
Target for wave 5 is 1,4809
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:56 | 显示全部楼层
OIL >>> A century in the making
I stumbled upon a nice little treat regarding oil from elliott wave international today... I thought everyone here could find a use for it considering the U.S. Dollar moves pretty much opposite to OIL ... Looks like they are calling a huge top in oil coming soon ...
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Usd/Jpy
Keep your eyes peeled on the USD/JPY DAILY CHART for a trend line break to the downside
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:57 | 显示全部楼层
I am still in it. I think that we have a little more steam left in this mini run yet, I think that we are still in minute wave 3, see my chart below. Didn't count, how many pips, but visually it looks like around 50-70 pips, before the next leg down, though.Attached Thumbnails
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:57 | 显示全部楼层
Just looking at the rally from 1.4614, it is clear that the EURUSD is in a 3rd wave. In other words, this thing is in acceleration mode right now and dips will be shallow if there are any. 1.4780 might be the best that you can hope for if this count is correct.Attached Images
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:58 | 显示全部楼层
USDJPY (and Yen crosses) are setting up for a big rally -- after a test of 107.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 08:59 | 显示全部楼层
Crude Oil .....( Weekly Bars )

" End of Wave 4 " since Feb 07 --- Major Support , Just 1 year ago

See chart posted below
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[img][/img][IMG]http://i30.tinypic.com/2rdyd5f.jpg" border=0>
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 09:00 | 显示全部楼层
GBPJPY: It's time to jump on this ship...entering 3 of C. Price should remain above 208.76. Target is 217 area.
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 09:01 | 显示全部楼层
Usdcad
This was my original outlook on USDCAD when I started following it months ago... Jaime has called a reversal that looks like it will play out... After seeing support on the under side of the 61.8 retracement when price tried to rally... I have exited my long position at a profit... I will watch this pair for now....
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 09:02 | 显示全部楼层
I try not to count the short term too much friend... I find it difficult and confusing most of the time... That's why you see me here with long term counts all the time... I'm not too sure where you entered your trade ... But I think today's candle is too big.. I think tonight and going into tomorrow we should see some retracement into today's price action... Probably atleast halfway into it..

Hope that helps...Attached Images
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 09:03 | 显示全部楼层
GbpUsd
CHART UPDATE

Yesterday !................ To ............. Today !
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Original Post :
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...13880&page=263
---------------------------------------------------------
Suggestion of a " Wave 4 " Rally - as was illustrated .......

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2008-5-3 09:04 | 显示全部楼层
Gbp/Usd

Here is a Short-Term Wave-count ( 15 min bars )
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Price action appears to be moving toward an End of Wave 5

What do you think ? ..........
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Only A Probability ! ................ Not Cast in Stone !
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Eur/Usd

Here is a Short-Term Wave-count ( 1 Hr bars )
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Price action appears to be moving toward an End of Wave 5

---------------------------------------------------------

Only A Probability ! ................ Not Cast in Stone !
----------------------------------------------------------
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-3 09:05 编辑 ]
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