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发表于 2009-4-11 17:52
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Nov 5, 2007 2:46am
| |  GBPJPY - Race to 219 or to 251
I am interested to gather GBPJPY traders opinion on where they think Price for this currency will go in the short to medium term.
I see traders having views that This will fall hard towards 219 and even below while others see this as going up towards 251.
It would be interesting to see your opinion all gathered in 1 place away from the daily analysis of most GBPJPY threads. Hopefully , analysis would be backed with either charts or details why you favor a particular direction.
I am wondering what most of the Technical Indicator based Systems are showing us and hopefully we get some contribution of thoughts from our Fundamental Analysts.
IMHO, I am BULLISH Bias more because of what I get from My Elliott Wave Counts for this Pair. Most of the Limits favoring a Bearish trend have been Breached, therefore I currently favor a Bullish trend towards 251.
EG
Attached Thumbnails
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EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#2
 Nov 5, 2007 3:17am
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check my sig, I've said 251+ a couple of months ago when price was at 220's 
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Karmo's latest GBP/JPY analysis >>>>> CLICK HERE
*Trade at your own risk!
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#3
Nov 5, 2007 3:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by karmostaji 
check my sig, I've said 251+ a couple of months ago when price was at 220's
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Hey Karmo....
Yes I observed that you have consistently maintained that stance that we will reach 251 by the end of the year.
Would you like to expound on that or was that based on gut feel?
Was it a race as to which price level would be reached first or was it more of knowing price will reach 251 before the end of the year whether it goes directly to 251 or even if it goes to 219 first..... but it would definitely reach 251 by the end of the year?
I have observed that there are very few people or very rarely do we see traders for GBPJPY here willing to provide a longer term view as to their price direction perception.
And you Karmo are the only trader I have seen who has consistently maintained your stand on this. and have openly stood by what you believed in. I salute you for that.
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#4
Nov 5, 2007 6:33pm
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251 or 219? Well, to answer that question you must have a pretty good feeling about the direction of the equity markets in general and the Dow in particular. If you see GJ at 251 by year's end, then you have to see the Dow at +15,000, probably in the 15300-15400 range. Will the Dow ever reach that height? Yes it will...but by year's end? Man, that is hard to envision in this environment. I think we will see Dow at these levels by late Q2 or early Q3 next year...obviously the US has some major issues to settle (housing, commodity prices, etc.). A casual look at the Dow chart and you can see that it is due for a correction....something in the 8% to 10% range...before we can push on to new highs. So, if we are talking 2month horizions, I believe we will be closer to the 219 by year's end. I started shorting GJ at 239.50 and will add to it in 100 pip increments (upward). While I am not sure about 219, 230-231 looks highley probable.
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Rebounding for others while shooting for my goals.....FX-Petra
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#5
Nov 6, 2007 10:24am
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Very few would dare to provide their views on this.
I am looking for traders working on Gann Theories and I am wondering what they have in Mind.
I do not know much or or almost anything about economies , stocks, bonds futures commodities, currencies and what have you and how all of these are inter related.
I have concentrated on just working on Elliott Waves and studying the Principles and Theories.
Being an ignorant trader not versed on economics, I am presenting the following charts below which I have come up with based on the available reference points on my charts.
Projections are made for the Potential outcome based on the availability of 3 points Wave 0, wave1 and wave 2.
So far, I have come up with an approximate target for my 15min chart up to the Daily Chart.
And I know this is going to throw off a lot of people.
However, I still present these charts here for people to agree with, be enlightened or to dispute them.
These are approximate values and will need to be adjusted depending on the final outcome for each wave 5 end.
It should always be remebered that after every wave 3 comes a retracement of 38.2% to 50% of the Wave 3 for the wave 4 before proceeding with the upward move.
EG
Attached Thumbnails   
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#6
Nov 6, 2007 6:47pm
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I look forward to seeing views from users of the following Tools and Systems:
1. Technical Analysis
2. Wolfe Wave
3. Cycle Trading
4. Gann Theory
5. Pitchfork
6. Wave Analysis
7. Fundamentals
8. Astrology, Planetary Alignments and influence of celestial bodies
9. Grid
10. Square of 9 for Price and Time
11. Lunar
12. Geometry
13. Price Action
14. Candlestick Patterns
15. Harmonic Patterns / Gartley
So far the count is stil 2 to 1
2 Bulls and A Bear.
Let us hear from the other traders.
EG
__________________
EW Counts are basically about increasing Probabilities. They are not Perfect. My EW Counts are Recommended for DEMO Trading only. They should be viewed as POTENTIAL Scenarios and MUST NEVER be considered as TRADE CALLS
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#7
Nov 6, 2007 7:23pm
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i have posted a weekly chart that shows my opinion about this.
here is my interpretation based on this weekly chart:
- wave 3: 241.46
- wave 4: 221.07 (observe that elliott wave indicator is NOT crossing below 0 line)
- wave 5: 251.09, blue dot
- wave A: 219.28, blue dot; and here i need to say a few things. this presumed wave A has reached lower than wave 4, which is another reason for me to believe that we might see a lower low once wave C starts; if wave A would have been higher than wave 4, we would have had a HUGE hidden bullish divergence between 4 and A that would have supported the continuation of the trend. but it is not the case.
- wave B: currently going up... and should be completed around 244.24 or 247.44.
- wave C: a fall below last minimum (219.28) - a projected target of wave C might be around 211-212, depending where wave B ends.
that's pretty much it.
p.s. i have attached another pic, the first one was without any explanation on it.
Attached Thumbnails
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Last edited by Scrat, Nov 6, 2007 7:40pm
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