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发表于 2009-4-12 07:44
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Oct 24, 2008 1:59am
| |  Gold labels
Labels for gold chart, where A-B-C is combined to make a larger cycle W, X, Y and possibly Z. X wave can repeat, the A-B-C's keep going in the same direction down. 
__________________
- FXoffshore
"Expect the best - prepare for the worst" Trade Charts and commentary: http://vault.bz
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#677
 Oct 24, 2008 2:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore 
Labels for gold chart, where A-B-C is combined to make a larger cycle W, X, Y and possibly Z. X wave can repeat, the A-B-C's keep going in the same direction down.
Attachment 161349
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Thanks a lot I see it but perhaps the existing wave a still not bottomed , any idea the level it should ? I want buy at this level .and the intraday range possibly move .
fontu
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#678
Oct 24, 2008 4:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXoffshore
Labels for gold chart, where A-B-C is combined to make a larger cycle W, X, Y and possibly Z. X wave can repeat, the A-B-C's keep going in the same direction down.
Attachment 161349
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Definetely FXoffshore, that's why I said (at least) a new low 
__________________
-soso
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#679
Oct 24, 2008 4:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
Definetely FXoffshore, that's why I said (at least) a new low
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Great analysis and new low already happen , the doble bottom at 698.90$ apparently thought bottom of existing a but it not hold . So after it get a bottom it will go up for b & then again another new low c, right ?
where you think this bottom of a ,as below as 664$ this time ?
thanks all .
fontu
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#680
Oct 24, 2008 5:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fontu
Great analysis and new low already happen , the doble bottom at 698.90$ apparently thought bottom of existing a but it not hold . So after it get a bottom it will go up for b & then again another new low c, right ?
where you think this bottom of a ,as below as 664$ this time ?
thanks all .
fontu
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I was talking about another low after this leg down completes.
I have no idea the price level where this leg completes and I don't think there's any trading value in trying to bottom picking it. Always trade in the direction of impulse, right now is down so you should position down only. If you want to go long then wait until you see an impulsive move up then wait some more for its retracement and only then enter long - using your favorite setup. This is how I'd play it...
fontu, and others who are just starting using EW, please take into consideration that EW is not a full trading system, is just another tool to identify the trend and its strength. And it does a terrific job doing just that. And nothing more. So EW is just a tool in your trading strategy but you have to define the whole strategy and how you enter, how you exit and what role has EW in your strategy.
Good luck!
__________________
-soso
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#681
Oct 24, 2008 9:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
I was talking about another low after this leg down completes.
I have no idea the price level where this leg completes and I don't think there's any trading value in trying to bottom picking it. Always trade in the direction of impulse, right now is down so you should position down only. If you want to go long then wait until you see an impulsive move up then wait some more for its retracement and only then enter long - using your favorite setup. This is how I'd play it...
fontu, and others who are just starting using EW, please take into consideration that EW is not a full trading system, is just another tool to identify the trend and its strength. And it does a terrific job doing just that. And nothing more. So EW is just a tool in your trading strategy but you have to define the whole strategy and how you enter, how you exit and what role has EW in your strategy.
Good luck!
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Thanks a lot again , I got the bottom 681.45$ I spot clearly & place buy orders & got more than expected profit in gold & though there were more chance in gpbjpy I did for gold in an ac specially for gold & other place gj 350 pips already & about 1000pips in probable with this count perfect.
Now after finishing a wave it is creating the b to upto 818$ minimum & then c wave down below to 681$ as 664$ ( possible) .
Thanks all who helps me .
fontu
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#682
Oct 27, 2008 3:17am
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I've been playing with ew about a week and based on that "experience" I would say that even though ew states clear rules for counting the waves, applying the rules is a problem. Especially fast moves are difficult, like euro's last leg down, which seems to be a never ending story. I bet that many elliotticans (including ew professionals) assumed that last friday bottom was the end for the w5, but that is not the case (as you can see right now).
When you say that ew is capable to show the trend, I'd say that yes, to some extent. But if you do not have any other means to determine end points of price movements, then you, at least occasionally, will enter or exit the market too early, simply because sometimes (often?) counting is more ad-hoc than "exact science". Experience in ew may help to some extent in this, but like the euro example shows, counting still is a pretty difficult task.
Good luck!
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
I was talking about another low after this leg down completes.
I have no idea the price level where this leg completes and I don't think there's any trading value in trying to bottom picking it. Always trade in the direction of impulse, right now is down so you should position down only. If you want to go long then wait until you see an impulsive move up then wait some more for its retracement and only then enter long - using your favorite setup. This is how I'd play it...
fontu, and others who are just starting using EW, please take into consideration that EW is not a full trading system, is just another tool to identify the trend and its strength. And it does a terrific job doing just that. And nothing more. So EW is just a tool in your trading strategy but you have to define the whole strategy and how you enter, how you exit and what role has EW in your strategy.
Good luck!
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#683
Oct 27, 2008 3:25am
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Here is my GJ 15m.
Sorry bcoz I not a professional in EW. I still learning. What I know now is wait. and then short again...
Attached Thumbnails
__________________
Trendline I've drawn
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#684
Oct 27, 2008 3:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocroy
I've been playing with ew about a week and based on that \\\\\\\"experience\\\\\\\" I would say that even though ew states clear rules for counting the waves, applying the rules is a problem. Especially fast moves are difficult, like euro's last leg down, which seems to be a never ending story. I bet that many elliotticans (including ew professionals) assumed that last friday bottom was the end for the w5, but that is not the case (as you can see right now).
When you say that ew is capable to show the trend, I'd say that yes, to some extent. But if you do not have any other means to determine end points of price movements, then you, at least occasionally, will enter or exit the market too early, simply because sometimes (often?) counting is more ad-hoc than \\\\\\\"exact science\\\\\\\". Experience in ew may help to some extent in this, but like the euro example shows, counting still is a pretty difficult task.
Good luck!
R
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Hi Rocroy,
Overall you are right in what you are saying, I'll just clear a few points from my perspective.
I dont know how many ellioticians assumed that last Friday was THE bottom. I also made an assumption, I was (and still am) expecting a bottom but expecting it is completely a different story than trading it.
Those that bought Euro Friday or a few hours ago are bottom pickers and they are everywhere, you dont have to be an elliotician to be one  . Truth is that an elliotician may be more inclined to bottom pick than usual.
Back to expecting a bottom on Friday, I already said in my last post the way I'd trade reversals - always wait for the first impulsive move in the timeframe I'm trading then wait some more for the first retracement and then join in the direction of the impulse, if there is a bar setup.
And lastly, EW is just another trading tool (a trend identification tool for me) and it is based on probabilities, like any other technical tool. So yes, it fails, and sometimes in a miserable way. In the end is like you say, experience is the mother of all - with or without EW.
One more thing, I wouldnt worry in counting every bit of a fast move. Why do that? When it ends it ends, the first sign is an impulse in the opposite direction so until it reverses better stay chilled. I am still making this mistake though 
This is true for complex corrections too, it is simply not worth to count every bit of a wave better mark some retracements/price S/R levels and when/if the correction gets there watch the price action around those levels and enter accordingly.
Hope it helps.
__________________
-soso
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#685
Oct 27, 2008 5:14am
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It is apparent that the actual bottoms were not reached in gold & other pairs like gj , now heading for so.the big 5th leg still to go perhaps to complete a in d1 .
fontu
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#686
Oct 27, 2008 6:38am
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Thanks soso, good to hear how others are actually using ew.
I guess the reason to my post was that my few first ew experiments happened to go too well and based on those my hopes were set too high. So maybe it was time to set my feet back on the ground.
EW is far from useless but it has its limitations. I'm surely going to use it in the future, but I need to study it more and need more experience on it. Also, like you mentioned, I need something else to overcome ew limitations (including patience  ) and I might just have the tools for that.
Trade well,
R
Quote:
Originally Posted by soso
Hi Rocroy,
Overall you are right in what you are saying, I'll just clear a few points from my perspective.
I dont know how many ellioticians assumed that last Friday was THE bottom. I also made an assumption, I was (and still am) expecting a bottom but expecting it is completely a different story than trading it.
Those that bought Euro Friday or a few hours ago are bottom pickers and they are everywhere, you dont have to be an elliotician to be one . Truth is that an elliotician may be more inclined to bottom pick than usual.
Back to expecting a bottom on Friday, I already said in my last post the way I'd trade reversals - always wait for the first impulsive move in the timeframe I'm trading then wait some more for the first retracement and then join in the direction of the impulse, if there is a bar setup.
And lastly, EW is just another trading tool (a trend identification tool for me) and it is based on probabilities, like any other technical tool. So yes, it fails, and sometimes in a miserable way. In the end is like you say, experience is the mother of all - with or without EW.
One more thing, I wouldnt worry in counting every bit of a fast move. Why do that? When it ends it ends, the first sign is an impulse in the opposite direction so until it reverses better stay chilled. I am still making this mistake though
This is true for complex corrections too, it is simply not worth to count every bit of a wave better mark some retracements/price S/R levels and when/if the correction gets there watch the price action around those levels and enter accordingly.
Hope it helps.
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#687
Oct 27, 2008 8:06am
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can anyone post your analysis of the curren eur/usd chart?
i'm getting confused with it...
btw blue bottle hasn't been seen for a long time... i wonder where he's going...
__________________
Money management is good for your health...
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#688
Oct 27, 2008 8:51am
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I see the modified gold counts as it did not get the bottom before ,perhaps today:
eurusd should correlate gold chart , will try latter .
fontu
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#689
Oct 27, 2008 9:08am
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Here is my euro count. Hopefully that support holds, so I don't have to update that damn w5 count once again!
Quote:
Originally Posted by 13thheaven
can anyone post your analysis of the curren eur/usd chart?
i'm getting confused with it...
btw blue bottle hasn't been seen for a long time... i wonder where he's going...
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