一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:08

Posted by Brian at 12/14/2007 02:06:00 PM

Short Squeezes
After the move in CPST and the mention of another idea I have identified as a short squeeze potential, I received quite a few emails asking what criteria I use to identify potential short squeezes. This ARTICLE is as detailed as I have written about. One thing that it appears many people are confused about is that a large short interest number by itself does not make a good squeeze candidate. The most important requirement is that the stock must be in an uptrend, if the stock is in a downtrend, the shorts have got it right! If the stock is in an uptrend and it appears the short position was initiated at lower prices then losses build for the shorts and they become fearful buyers of the stock.

As mentioned yesterday, I have identified another low priced stock with an excellent chart pattern (and a good story too) with a large short position. Here is what I am going to do. For anyone who sends me a donation through the paypal link on the right hand side of this blog, I will email you name of the comany. I will also send you a link to the research report which has a price target over 600% higher than current price levels. I am not quite as enthusiastic as that analyst, but I do see potential for a big (50%+) winner here. When you donated, paypal sends me a confirmation with your address and I will then send you the relevant links. There is no minimum donation, just do not insult me and of course, there is no maximum either!

I do own a small amount of this stock and plan on adding aggressively on further strength. I expect that strength to develop in the very short term.

Daily Chart

Weekly Chart

Posted by Brian at 12/14/2007 08:05:00 AM

Thursday, December 13, 2007Technical Analysis Video Stock Market Review 12/13/07
The markets seem to be attempting to stabilize but with a declining 5 DMA I wouldn't trust it for more than daytrade longs, unless you are in special situations with great charts like CPST (:

Posted by Brian at 12/13/2007 04:15:00 PM

Step Right Up
the ride is about to begin.

Posted by Brian at 12/13/2007 08:47:00 AM

Abaxix Inc (ABAX)
is the company on WALLSTRIP this morning.

Here's a video look at the stock

Posted by Brian at 12/13/2007 06:45:00 AM

Wednesday, December 12, 2007Stock Market Video Technical Analysis 12/12/07
When markets experience a large directional price shock like we have seen since the Fed announcement yesterday it creates an environment which is ruled by emotion. If yo do not have the mindset for short term trading this is a good time to be in cash until the dust settles.

Posted by Brian at 12/12/2007 04:14:00 PM

The Primary Battle
for control is unfolding at the 2 day VWAP
52.04 in QQQQ
150.18 in SPY
77.93 IWM

Posted by Brian at 12/12/2007 02:22:00 PM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:09

Capstone (CPST) Looking Good
Unless you are short some of the 10 million shares bet against the stock.

Posted by Brian at 12/12/2007 10:20:00 AM

Just Took Patience
I hope you have continued to keep an eye on Capstone Turbine (CPST). This could be teh beginning of something big.

Posted by Brian at 12/06/2007 09:53:00 AM

CAREFUL HERE

Posted by Brian at 12/04/2007 02:09:00 PM

Solar Squeeze
Shorts are also vulnerable in CSIQ, ESLR, JASO, etc

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:11

Friday, November 30, 2007Different Accout, Different Personality
Yesterday I showed a video of a scalp short in VMware, Inc. (Public, NYSE:VMW) The account I traded it in has some excellent tools for order execution and I received a lot of feedback from people who thought the tools would help their trading. More advanced trading tools will help a lot of traders, especially if they are very short term focused. The trades below in Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (Public, NYSE:EXM) were executed via a system I am not thrilled with all the time (some of you know what I mean) but the basic order entry this firm uses was good enough to trade the stock successfully. Your market focus should be based on understanding how stocks trade and market dynamics and then executing with discipline. All the bells and whisltes will do more harm than good in the hands of a trader whose basic market understanding lacks.

Posted by Brian at 11/30/2007 01:23:00 PM

Rallies In a Downtrend
In late 2000, as the QQQQ were in a terrible downtrend, the market experienced some sharp rallies which excited buyers and caught bears off guard. All of these rallies failed to turn the market back higher. Look at the magnitude of the moves.

1-Oct 12 Close 75.13 Oct 13 Close 81.25 UP $6.12 or 8.14%
2-Nov 13 Close 70.06 Nov 14 Close 75.84 UP $5.78 or 8.25%
3-Dec 04 Close 63.69 Dec 05 Close 70.69 UP $7.00 or 10.97%
4-Jan 02 Close 53.44 Jan 03 Close 62.44 UP $9.00 or 16.8%

The rallies became more powerful the longer the trend was established as more shorts were involved and more bargain hunters were attracted to what was "obviously the bottom". Rallies in a downtrend typically fail to hold, but premature short sales can also be very costly.

Posted by Brian at 11/29/2007 01:45:00 PM

It's Hard Not
to be impressed with a rally of close to 2%, but do not let your guard down. The trend is still lower and the Qs will have to rally back above 50.35 to invalidate the descending triangle I pointed out in yesterday's video.

Posted by Brian at 11/27/2007 11:52:00 AM

Posted by Brian at 11/26/2007 03:08:00 PM

Posted by Brian at 11/26/2007 11:17:00 AM

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:12

GOOG Trade Still Developing
If the market doesn't meld down from here it will be because of leadership from stocks like GOOG. But can the stock hold on here?

Posted Yesterday

Posted by Brian at 11/20/2007 01:25:00 PM

Snap Back to Reality
Oh there goes gravity

I'm glad to be a trader.
Failure of 145.00 in SPY along with new lows in Semis and IWM paints a dark pcture for the bulls.

Posted by Brian at 11/20/2007 12:44:00 PM

Who Needs HPQ
The HPQ news was sold into for that stock, but the Nasdaq leaders (AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, ISRG & RIMM) have all found buyers and their strength has lifted the confidence of the market. The SPY is back above 145 and holding above that level could lead to a more significant rally. From failed moves (like yesterday's breakdown) often come fast moves. The MACD divergence also lends credibility to this rally. Do not let your confidence lead you to taking large risks.

Posted by Brian at 11/20/2007 10:49:00 AM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:12

Tuesday, November 20, 2007Our Savior?
Hewlett Packard (HPQ) is trading up to the 50 day moving average in the pre-market and a lot of hope has been pinned on this stock to help turn the market around. My bet is that the earnings from this one company just aren't important enough to turn the market higher. Also, will the good news be sold into? Look at how extended the stock is on the weekly timeframe, it looks dangerous to me. Maybe the market does turn and HPQ is the catalyst, but it doesnt seem likely to motivate more than a bounce in a downtrending market.

Posted by Brian at 11/20/2007 09:20:00 AM

Mettler Toledo International (MTD)
is the company on WALLSTRIP this morning.

Here's a look at the stock.

Posted by Brian at 11/20/2007 08:42:00 AM

Monday, November 19, 2007Another Look
at the Nasdaq market leaders; Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Baidu.com Inc. (Nasdaq:BIDU), Google Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GOOG) and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM). These stocks have slowed their descents but the evidence of a turn higher still isn't there yet. This video takes a look at the potential risks and rewards in the stocks at current levels.

Maybe the Hewlett-Packard Company (Public, NYSE:HPQ) earnings will help turn these stocks around? HPQ is trading up a dollar in after hours right now and the futures are up about .50% as well.

Posted by Brian at 11/19/2007 04:34:00 PM

Stock Market Technical Analysis Video 11/19/07
Failed expectations for a Thanksgiving week rally led to some frustrated selling today as the market doesn't seem to want to pause in its move lower for a holiday. This continues to be a treacherous environemnt and we may see buying later in the week, but with the averages closing near there lows there is no evidence of it yet.

YOUTUBE seems to be slow to process the video today, check the VWAP article below, or click something else on the site..

Posted by Brian at 11/19/2007 03:51:00 PM

Potential Scenario
for Google Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GOOG). The stock tested the rising 50 day MA again today and while the short term trend (shown on this 10 minute chart) is still lower, the rate of descent has definitely slowed. On Friday I outlined the divergence between price and the MACD on the hourly timeframe and indicated that, along with the 50% retracement and the test of the 50 day MA was reason to start "stalking the stock". The watch for an entry continues and it appears that a move above 639-640 would not only take out the high of the last 2 days, but it would also recapture the 5 day MA for the first time since this move lower began. Continue to watch the stock and wait for price confirmation before a trade is entered. ONLY PRICE PAYS

Posted by Brian at 11/19/2007 02:45:00 PM

Stericycle, Inc (SRCL)
is the company on WALLSTRIP this morning.

Here's a look at the stock.

Posted by Brian at 11/19/2007 08:05:00 AM

Sunday, November 18, 2007Institutional Trading Benchmark
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

People often wonder why the trading volume slows so dramatically during the middle of each trading day. The most common explanation for the midday inactivity is that it is lunch time and while it is certainly part of the reason, it is not as though the specialists and market makers all head out to a liquid lunch and forget about their business for the day. Most serious traders I know eat their lunch at their desk so they don’t miss an opportunity and to maintain a better feel for how their positions are trading.

Consider a market maker with a day order to buy 1 million shares of a stock for an institutional customer. The market maker cannot just go in and buy the full position in the first two hours of the day and then leave his desk to go play golf. Market makers are evaluated by their customers for the quality of trade execution; did they get a fair price for the customer? The most common method of used to analyze the quality of a trade execution is to compare the price the order was filled to the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). The VWAP is calculated by dividing the dollar volume of a stock by the share volume over a given period of time. Simply put, the VWAP is the average price that each share was executed over the period of time being studied. There are several ways to calculate the VWAP in RealTick, the analysis and trading software I use. I prefer VWAP analysis with a moving average, in particular for shorter term day trades on a one day chart of the equity I am trading.

The VWAP is considered to be a fair benchmark for comparison of the institutional trade desks ability to execute trades on behalf of the customer. If the brokerage purchases were made at a price less than VWAP then they did a good job for the customer. If the price paid was greater than the VWAP they may lose that customer for future transactional business. The daily VWAP is a number which changes as orders are transacted at varying prices throughout the day.

Here is a simple example of how an institutional trader might manually execute an order for the purchase of 1 million shares. Let’s say the stock closed the previous day at $40/share. The morning the broker receives the buy order he may offer 5 or 10,000 shares at 39.90 or lower while simultaneously bidding for shares at a lower price. The first trick this broker may use is to show the full size of the offer while only showing 100 shares bid with a larger number of shares “in reserve” meaning that he may be really bidding for 5000 (or any other number they choose) shares. By showing a larger number of shares for sale and a small amount of demand in the pre-market, the broker may induce weaker holders to sell their shares in fear that there could be a real seller looking to get a head start on their
selling that day. This type of activity is pure manipulation and it happens all the time!

The one-minute chart of Google Inc (GOOG) shows a declining VWAP for most of this day, showing the sellers dominance.

If the buying broker can create a mini panic on the open, it is possible that he may be able to scoop up several hundred thousand shares at a very favorable price early on in the day. The risk, of course, is that another buyer calls his bluff and buys the 10,000 shares that he was showing the market on the offer, which would put the market maker short 10,000 shares of a stock he has to buy 1 million shares of that day. Either one of these scenarios is possible. It is part of the market markers
attempt to find, and even motivate by creating fear and triggering stop loss orders, a source of supply so he can begin to fill his purchase order.

If the market maker is able to secure liquidity for 600,000 shares of the order before noon then he knows his job of filling the balance of the order in the afternoon will be easier, particularly if his 600,000 was executed at a favorable price relative to the VWAP at that point of the day.

Read more about VWAP in MY BOOK

.

Be sure to view my end of day videos here each day where I share my thoughts about the market and often mention VWAP.

Posted by Brian at 11/18/2007 12:30:00 PM

Friday, November 16, 2007Today IS NOT the day
to be buying Google (GOOG) I am only suggesting you watch it. I got an email asking where a stop should go and there shouldn't be a stop because there shouldn't be a long position yet. I am trying to show how to stalk a POTENTIAL trade in a broken market leader.

Posted by Brian at 11/16/2007 10:05:00 AM

Moving Average Convergence Divergence
The MACD shows the difference between two exponential moving averages, I don't use a "signal line" when I look at this indicator, just look at the oscillator. Yesterday I thought that as Google Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GOOG) approached the rising 50 day moving average and the 50% rtracement level there was the potential for support in that area. The short term trend remains lower, however the hourly chart shown below is showing us signs of a potential turn. I stress that there is not proper stability on the shorter term trend to make a buy with confidence, but the MACD divergence is often one of the first signs that a stock is setting up for a tradable reversal that could last a couple of days. The lower low that GOOG made yesterday came on less volume and the selling was less intense than what the stock experienced on Tuesday (evidenced by the higher MACD level). The action on the daily timeframe (pullback to 50 dma & 50% retracement) leads us to drill down to the hourly timeframe where we see the MACD divergence which is a sign that sellers are less aggressive. Now for a low risk setup to materialize in shares of GOOG we need to take our analysis to shorter term timeframes to look for evidence that buyers are starting to become more aggessive and that they can take control.

Posted by Brian at 11/16/2007 09:17:00 AM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:14

One of the Weaker
stocks on a relative basis yesterday was Google Inc (GOOG). That is not a good sign for the rest of the market. When the institutions go to their best stocks to raise cash it shows a need to liquidate. That need for liquidity could be based on anything, I still think we will be hearing some "news" to explain the overall weakness. Maybe there is another big hedge fund in trouble? Something doesn't seem right...actually a lot doesn't seem right if you are a bull. It's nice to be a trader and just take advantage of the emotional moves. I would not be surprised to see GOOG make a lower low very near term, maybe even today. A 50% retrace of the August low to the recent high lines up almost perfectly with the rising 50 DMA near 615, but I would not suggest buying there if looking to enter. That is an area to watch for potential support and then switch to shorter term timeframes for evidence that buyers are gaining control. One thing to look for on the hourly chart is a MACD divergence to setup, as they ogen lead to reversals. If unfamiliar with this approach, check the "MACD Video" under Popular Posts on the right hand side of this blog. DEFENSE WINS THE GAME!

Posted by Brian at 11/15/2007 09:06:00 AM

Historical Perspective
The first bounce from deep selloffs in market leaders.

Posted by Brian at 11/13/2007 09:22:00 AM

Overnight Trading in Futures
brought the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down much lower than current levels. If the market experieces further weakness today, the lows are likely areas for POTENTIAL support.

Posted by Brian at 11/12/2007 09:08:00 AM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:14

Rangebound
ranges are usually resolved in the direction of the larger timeframe, the next larger timeframe is lower. I'mnot participating here.

Posted by Brian at 11/09/2007 01:29:00 PM

Buyers Trying
to establish control here. It seems like an uphill battle for them but they are fighting for control near the VWAP. Keep your mind open to trades on either side of the market depending what the market tells us here. I am not suggesting a long here, but IF you do go long I think a stop just below 5050 makes sense.

Posted by Brian at 11/09/2007 11:55:00 AM

More Weakness
The market continues to lose ground in the pre-market as the problems for the market are not going to go away easily. I am going to continue to treat this market cautiously with a downward bias until there is evidence of a potential change in trend on the very short term. All of my trades in this environment will continue to be very shot term in nature in the liquid issues except for selective options trades. Be very careful if you are attempting to fish for bottoms in stocks, bounces have been elusive for the most part. The absence of any real bounce in some of the hardes thig names makes me think there are some big players with forced liquidations when they are selling at such "obviously low" levels. For the stocks who I made the Icarus post yesterday (AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, RIMM, etc.) it looks like those stocks could move down to at least the rising 50 day moving averages. The 50 dma is NOT a place to buy, only a place to switch to lower timeframes to look for evidence that a buyers may be congregating at those levels. Wait for price confirmation before making purchases.

I haven't watched it yet, but todays interview on WALLSTRIP looks interesting.

Posted by Brian at 11/09/2007 08:54:00 AM

Thursday, November 08, 2007Stock Market Video Technical Analysis Review 11/8/07

That felt like war! Time for a reward for a battle well fought.

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 04:11:00 PM

Retest of Lows Coming?

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 02:38:00 PM

Trimming Long HERE 5156
Will look to re-establish, but the momentum has slowed dramatically and that makes it vulnerable.

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 02:07:00 PM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:15

Thursday, November 08, 2007Inverted Head & Shoulders
Indicates a target near 52.20 i will reduce exposure below 5145 stop on balance 5133

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 02:02:00 PM

A Bear Got Him!
STOP TO BREAEVEN Qs

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 01:53:00 PM

LONG
stop under the line HIGH RISK!!!

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 01:28:00 PM

How To Catch A Falling Knife
Some amazing declines today!

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 12:43:00 PM

Back To Earth

Icarus (Greek: Ἴκαρος, Latin: Íkaros, Etruscan: Vicare) is a character in Greek Mythology. Icarus's father, Daedalus attempted to escape his prison, the Labyrinth, in which he was imprisoned at the hands of King Minos, the king for whom he had built the Labyrinth (Labyrinth is derived from the Minoans word for a ceremonial axe). The Labyrinth's origninal purpose was intended to hold the horrible creature, the Minotaur, a beast that was a product of one of the King's mistress's affairs with a bull. Daedalus fashioned a pair of wings for himself and his son, made of feathers and wax. Before they took off from the prison, Daedalus warned his son not to fly too close to the sun, as the wax would melt, nor too close to the sea, as the wax would dampen. Overcome by the sublime feeling that flying gave him, Icarus soared through the sky joyfully, but in the process came too close to the sun, which melted his wings. Icarus kept flapping his wings but soon realized that he had no feathers left and that he was only flapping his bare arms. And so, Icarus fell into the sea in the area which bears his name, the Icarian Sea near Icaria, an island southwest of Samos.[1] His flight was routinely alluded to by Greek poets in passing, but was told in a nutshell in Pseudo-Apollodorus, (Epitome of the Biblioteca) (i.11 and ii.6.3). Latin poets read the myth more philosophically, often linking Icarus analogically to artists.[2][3] In the fifteenth century Ovid became the source for the myth as it was rediscovered and transformed as a vehicle for heroic audacity and the poet's own aspirations, by Renaissance poets like Jacopo Sannazaro and Ariosto, as well as in Spain.[4] From WIKIPEDIA

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 12:15:00 PM

Never Trust
a gap higher in a downtrend.

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 09:47:00 AM

If The Don't Scare You Out
they'll wear you out. And when stocks like Itron, Inc (ITRI) implode like it recently did, they typically need a lot of time to heal before they should be purchased. The business of ITRI is explained on WALLSTRIP today.

Here's how I see the stock.

Posted by Brian at 11/08/2007 08:44:00 AM

Wednesday, November 07, 2007More Selling After The Close
In order to suceed in the markets you have to ANTICIPATE and MANAGE RISK. Anticipate does not mean try to catch the falling knives, but to recognize signs in the market where there may be a potential turning point. Recently, the biggest signs of trouble came from the Financials (XLF) the Semiconductors ($SOX.X) and, more broadly, the Russell 2000 (IWM). The signs of excess speculation were also obviously present in the riduculous advances experienced my many small Chinese stocks about a month ago, then Warren Buffet said he was selling his Petrochina (PTR) shares (they've since dropped about 50 ponts). Then we saw many leading stocks get hit hard with out any signs of bouncing (ABK, BRCM, C, CMCSA, CROX, EBAY, ERIC, HANS, GRMN, MDT, NTRI....etc). I have been saying that a move to the 50 day MA on the QQQQ would not come as a surprise, but what does surprise me is how quickly we may see such a move. Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported after the close today and the reaction to the numbers is terrible. I didn't bother to read the news, one look at the stock tells me all I need to know. I am happy to see the many emails and comments from people who reduced their long exposure or got short based on what I have been saying the last few weeks. So what to anticipate now? More turbulence with a downward bias, if you are still heavily long I would use any bounces to reduce exposure.

Posted by Brian at 11/07/2007 05:49:00 PM

Stock Market Video Technical Analysis 11/7/07

Posted by Brian at 11/07/2007 04:14:00 PM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:16

Wednesday, November 07, 2007Be Very Careful

Posted by Brian at 11/07/2007 11:04:00 AM

I Remember

buying call options on Apple Inc (AAPL) just before going on spring break with my family in March of 2004. The stock was breaking past resistance to multiple year highs near 15.00/ share and I thougth there would be a good trade but wanted to limit my risk because I wouldn't be watching it while on vacation. I guess I should have taken a three year vacation and a longer term option. I do not like to look back at how much I "could have made", to me that is a losers game. A lot of people have made a lot of money buying and holding Apple and there will be many more short term trades that I will participate in. If you are holding the stock and have large unrealized profits accumulated my best advice is to be defensive. Every stock goes down at some point so be sure you have an exit strategy in mind for when that day does come. Lindsay is having issues with her Dell on WALLSTRIP and heads out on the streets for insights about AAPL.

Posted by Brian at 11/07/2007 08:53:00 AM

Tuesday, November 06, 2007I've Always Thought
the phrase "I'd rather be lucky than good" was stupid. I would rather be good at something, it seems amateurish to rely on luck. BUT when I do experinece good luck I am thrilled. It isn't very often that you can make a mistake like the one I did and have it work out so well. After hours Dryships, Inc (DRYS) reported earnings and I saw the stock trading at 117ish, I decided to send a test order way above where the market was trading to see if it was shortable, just in case. When I sent the order to sell short 500 shares at 123.47 I was horrified to see it get filled, I didn't want to sell it short on such huge strength so I IMMEDIATELY entered an order to buy it back at 120.00 and was filled almost instantly! LUCKY!!

Posted by Brian at 11/06/2007 04:42:00 PM

Stock Market Technical Analysis Video 11/6/07

Posted by Brian at 11/06/2007 04:11:00 PM

Market Foundation
Keep and eye on IWM...

Posted by Brian at 11/06/2007 10:24:00 AM

New Lows
Are a terrible place to look for good long side trading candidates which is why I don't trade them. On this morning's WALLSTRIP, Trump Entertainment is the first stock to be looked at because of the dubious distinction of being near an all time low. There are a lot of good shots at Donald Trump in the Wallstrip video, I wonder if he will fire back (like he did to Rosie) and provide millions of dollars of free branding to Wallstrip?

To find out when it might be safe to purchase the stock view this video.

Posted by Brian at 11/06/2007 08:52:00 AM

Monday, November 05, 2007Stock Market Video Technical Analysis 11/5/07

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 04:11:00 PM

Head & Shoulders Target
has been achieved and that level is also where we find todays Pivot point. The declining 5 DMA is now at 54.30

Last post til video.

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 03:26:00 PM

Will VWAP Act
as support? and then the shorts get squeezed into the close?
You've got to be quick and honor your stops!

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 03:09:00 PM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:18

Monday, November 05, 2007What IF
The Qs retake the VWAP?

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 03:05:00 PM

Lower Highs and Lower Lows
is the definition fo a downtrend. So if short why wuold you continue to hold if that definition is no longer valid. Stopped out of balance at 53.81, may look to re enter.

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 02:52:00 PM

I Expect
the new stop at 53.81 will get hit

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 02:36:00 PM

Lowering Stop
to 53.97

covering a little more here too

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 02:26:00 PM

I'm Covering a Little Here
Stop on balance at breakeven

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 01:56:00 PM

The Forest
do not lose site of it (longer term) while looking at the trees (1 minute chart) The daily chart is still bullish and it would still remain bullish even if the market was to drop down towards the rising 50 DMA. Money mangement is always critical, but even more important when you take trades where there are mixed messages from different timeframes. Hard to believe the market can rally here wiht 682 Advancing stocks and 2521 Decliners. But if I had a dollar for everytime the market did something unexpected....

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 01:33:00 PM

Stop On Qs
I will lower the stop if 54.00 is taken out.

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 01:31:00 PM

QQQQ VWAP
is being defended by the bulls so far. A break below 54.05 could trigger further weakness.

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 01:00:00 PM

Inmates Running the Asylum
I'm only half listening to this news about Citigroup and Merrill, but it sure makes me glad I'm a trader and not an investor.

Posted by Brian at 11/05/2007 09:29:00 AM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:19

Fractals and A Free Book
A fractal is generally "a rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be subdivided in parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size copy of the whole,"[1] a property called self-similarity. The term was coined by Benoît Mandelbrot in 1975 and was derived from the Latin fractus meaning "broken" or "fractured".....From Wikipedia

Fractals are observed throughout nature and even in the stock market.

In THIS POST I showed the similarity of the daily and weekly charts in BQI. I also observed a similar pattern from a stock in early Septemter. The stock has since soared. I am not suggesting that BQI can continue at the pace of the mystery stock, but the charts are quite similar and that short position in BQI cannot be feeling too good right now. BTW, I understand that the shorts are betting against the outcome of a soon to be released report about the amount of oil they may or may not have, if the report is negative the stock could get slammed so if you are holding for a longer term investment I would suggest you check the date for that report and maybe hedge your position with a put option.

BQI BEFORE

BQI NOW

MYSTERY STOCK BEFORE

MYSTERY STOCK NOW

Notice the similarities between "BQI BEFORE" and "MYSTREY STOCK BEFORE"
The first three people who correctly guess the name of the mystery stock will be sent a copy of this book (there is a chapter in it written by me).

POST YOUR GUESSES IN THE COMMENTS UNDER THIS POST ONLY. CONTEST ENDS WHEN I RECEIVE 3 CORRECT GUESSES. IF YOU EMAIL ME FOR HINTS YOU WILL BE DISQUALIFIED.

**Uptate** I have received one response from "Dave" and it is correct. I will not publish the correct guesses until I have received 3 correct guesses, otherwise people will quickly figure it out by looking at the other entries.

Posted by Brian at 11/03/2007 09:19:00 AM

Behind The Scenes
at WALLSTRIP

A great source for finding stocks in a particular sector is is the stock on today's BULL SECTORS I wish he would list the stocks in columns though it would make it easier to import into REALTICK for easier analysis. Send him an email requesting that, he will know who is behind it.

Posted by Brian at 11/03/2007 09:02:00 AM

Friday, November 02, 2007Stock Market Technical Analysis Video 11/2/07

Posted by Brian at 11/02/2007 04:17:00 PM

Symbol Change
UNGLUU

Posted by Brian at 11/02/2007 12:36:00 PM

R2 as Resistance
Pivot levels often act as support or resistnace intrady.
Now that BQI is up nearly 10% on the day and at R2, you may want to consider selling some into this strength.

Posted by Brian at 11/02/2007 11:59:00 AM

Posted by Brian at 11/02/2007 09:53:00 AM

Oilsands Quest (BQI)
I suggested buying this stock on MONDAY as a short squeeze candidate when the stock was under 5.00. BQI has been a good short term performer and I would suggest you sell a partial position above 5.80 and raise the stop on the balance to 5.35 on the balance.

Posted by Brian at 11/02/2007 08:45:00 AM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:20

Wednesday, October 31, 2007Trading Junkie
That's how I feel when I see a stock like Crox Inc (CROX) blow up in reaction to earnings after the close.

Short it when it's down 16 points after hours?

It was such a good trend...

Posted by Brian at 10/31/2007 06:11:00 PM

What Happened, Ben?

Posted by Brian at 11/01/2007 03:28:00 PM

Croc Bite

Posted by Brian at 11/01/2007 01:53:00 PM

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:48

Thursday, October 25, 2007A Giant Awakens!!
Long left for dead, Microsoft (MSFT) has shown a huge gain in the after hours trading today as it woke from a long coma. The blue line on the monthly chart below shows where the stock closed in after hours trading, that is a high not seen since 2001!

Below is the after hours trading in MSFT, there was an initial pause near 33.50 and then a steady climb higher.

Posted by Brian at 10/25/2007 09:14:00 PM

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:51

Remember This Post?
I posted this after the last earnings report from AAPL, the blue arrow on the chart of the Qs shows that date.
Apple Is Not The Market

I am posting it again to remind you that you cannot blindly buy all tech stocks because of one good report. Look at the action in the semiconductors today after earnings from TXN. I thought semis were supposed to lead technology? (rhetorical question).

Posted by Brian at 10/23/2007 11:29:00 AM

Monday, October 22, 2007Key Levels to Watch
The 50 day MA on the Qs is way down at 50.00, I am not expecting it to drop to that level today but the short term trend is lower and where support is found is anyones guess. We can use tools like Fibonacci, moving averages, measured move, etc to approximate where support may be found, but wait for price action to confirm support has been found before making purchases.

The 200 day MA in the SPY is found at 148, that is a more realistic approximation of where the market may potentially find support today. Do not blindly buy at levels that you think should be support, let the institutions do the dirty work of creating those support levels with their massive firepower and then once the trend has revealed itself, step aboard for a quick move and keep a tight stop in case the sellers come back. There is no such thing as "down too much", compared to what?

When you have time check out the Blackberry controversy on

Posted by Brian at 10/22/2007 09:10:00 AM

Posted by Brian at 10/19/2007 03:19:00 PM

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:52

Wednesday, October 17, 2007Up Just a Little---eBay Inc.
Trading a stock after a fundamental event is announced in the after hours can be seductive because of the huge moves which often follow such an event. Price movement happens very quickly which is why you need to be extra disciplined if you attempt to trade in this environment. It is almost funny how many shares trade in moments after a company reports earnings. Funny because the big money funds are supposedly smart enough to analyze an earnings report in 10 seconds and then commit millions of dollars of the public's retirement money to a "solid investment" for their future. No one can properly analyze a balance sheet, earnings statement, etc. that quickly with any accuracy. The fact is, the after hours casino is ruled by emotional decisions to headlines. That is the game....charts allow us to plot those emotions and try to determine where the buyer and sellers are likely to congregate so we can find what looks like a low risk entry point and also ascertain where we should bail on the trade if it looks like we are wrong. After hours trading is very similar to the recent trading in shares of Chinese stocks, it is emotionally driven...very little to do with fundamentals. This type of trading is clearly not for everyone, but I like it.

eBay Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:EBAY)

Posted by Brian at 10/17/2007 08:52:00 PM

eBay After Hours (EBAY)
is the stock a buy here?
I'm giving it a shot at 40.86 stop 40.57
Of course there are no stops in after hours, it is a mental limit only. This will be a quick trade, I am not looking to hold overnight.

**UPDATE**
sold half 41.10 and getting clost to pulling trigger on the balance, the stock is now trading at 40.65 and in jeopardy of giving up all the after hours gains.

**GONE**

Posted by Brian at 10/17/2007 05:32:00 PM

Video Stock Market Technical Analysis Review 10/17/07
Breaking support, resistance or a trend line is an event that should get your attention and today the trend line we have been watching in the Qs was broken. Support from earlier in the week was also violated. This action served to suck in new shorts as weaker longs liquidated, but the bears could not hold control for very long and they were squeezed right into the close.

Be Careful
A rally up to the 5DMA then a failure of the trendline could lead to a stronger selloff.

Posted by Brian at 10/17/2007 01:49:00 PM

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:56

Coming Into Support?
Trendline, Fibonacci, Prior Resistance are reasons to look for evidence of a POTENTIAL short term turn back up. HIGH RISK

Posted by Brian at 10/11/2007 03:18:00 PM

Potential H&S Top in Qs?
This chart suggests extra caution here.
If the market does break down it will be interesting to hear the "reason" Will it be expensive oil, weak dollar, jobs report, earnings?

Posted by Brian at 10/04/2007 01:24:00 PM

Business is Booming at
NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA) and it is today's WALLSTIP stock.

Here's a look a the technicals

Posted by Brian at 10/04/2007 07:58:00 AM

Wednesday, October 03, 2007Video Stock Market Technical Analysis Review 10/3/07
The markets showed a little bit of weakness today after the short term uptrend line was broken in the Qs. The breaking of a trend line only signals that we should be more defensive in this environment, it does not mean it is time to get aggressively short.

Posted by Brian at 10/03/2007 04:11:00 PM

One Year vs Two Weeks
CHNR vs AAPL

Without any reference to time, these charts look almost identical.

Posted by Brian at 10/03/2007 02:37:00 PM

Wipeout

Posted by Brian at 10/03/2007 02:05:00 PM

Trendline
breaks don't mean a market will reverse direction, but they are one of the first signs that a market trend is slowing and in jeopardy of a short term reversal. Do not let the specualtive names convince you to hold for prices where they were an hour ago, sell when the stocks tell you to. In many of the Chinese stocks, that time has come.

Posted by Brian at 10/03/2007 01:46:00 PM

Where Will You Be When The Music Stops?

Posted by Brian at 10/03/2007 01:33:00 PM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 08:59

Euro Tech Holdings Co. Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:CLWT)
Euro Tech Holdings Company Limited (Euro Tech) is a distributor of a range of advanced water treatment equipment (including chlorination equipment), laboratory instruments, analyzers, test kits and related supplies and power generation equipment (including recorders and power quality analyzers). During the year ended December 31, 2006, the Company distributed products to in excess of 1,000 customers, including the Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department, China Light & Power Co., Ltd., Hong Kong Electric Co., Ltd., the Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation, China’s National Environmental Protection Agency, Harbin Water, Harbin Environmental Monitoring Center, Inbev Group, Beijing Huai Rou and Shunyi District CDC, Liaoning Jinzhou Waste-water Treatment Plant and to subdistributors located in Hong Kong, the People’s Republic of China and Macau. The Company operates through two segments: trading and manufacturing, and engineering.

I'm thinking a stop goes below 3.45

Posted by Brian at 9/27/2007 01:43:00 PM

Is the "Death Cross" Bullish?
The "Death Cross" is a supposedly bearish event which is characterized by the 50 day moving average crossing down through the 200 day moving average. When a market experiences a "death cross" it is supposed to be a negative for the market going forward. WHen the 50 day MA undercut the 200 day MA in GS on August I was skeptical that such a signal could have any value. I also stated that the Death Cross in the IWM two weeks ago might be a good contrarian indicator. It is easy to rip on any technical event as not having value, because there are other examples I could have come up with where the market did follow through to the downside. The point is to keep an open mind and don't be sucked into a position because of a technical event with a cool sounding name. Only price pays.

For more information and some stocks which appear ready to experience a death cross

Tuesday, September 18, 2007We Got an Answer Today
Thanks Richard!

Posted by Brian at 9/18/2007 09:16:00 PM

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 09:02

Hidden Support in Superconductor Tech (SCON)?
When a stock rallies from 1.50 to 8.50 in less than three weeks it looks like a great candidate for a short sale to many people. I tried to enter shorts at three different brokerage firms and there were no shares available at all three firms. It looks like the "obvious trade" is already crowded. Obvious trades rarely work which is why I am LONG SCON right now for a trade. The stock pulled back to the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) since the move began on August 20. My thinking is that this level will provide short term support for the stock and the early shorts will scramble with buy orders to protect themselves. It is a risky trade and my stop is just below the low of the day. I will likely exit this trade before the close today.

Posted by Brian at 9/06/2007 01:42:00 PM

Perspective
Yesterday's action brought doubt to many traders about the validity of the inverted head and shoulders pattern I have been mentioning. As you can see in the chart below, the neckline was not broken to the downside, this action is similar to the action in 2006. After four days up, the market merely experienced a short term correction. For now, I still belive the market will continue higher, but as new price data enters the picture of this constantly changing landscape I will adjust my views accordingly. My number one concern is not where the market will be in a week or two, but what can I do to make money TODAY!

2006

Posted by Brian at 9/06/2007 09:05:00 AM

S&P 500 (SPY) target
IF the SPY can break to a higher high by trading (and holding above) the recent high of 148.33, the inverted head and shoulder pattern would suggest an upside target of at least 156.

Posted by Brian at 8/30/2007 12:02:00 PM

Inverted Head & Shoulders Update
The Nasdaq 100 is clearly stronger than the SPY right now as the Qs have broken past the neckline of the pattern I began to outline in my videos on Tuesday. Using the measured move (and measuring it very conservatively) the upward target for the Qs would be approximately 51.00. As I always warn, do not use an upside target like this blindly, instead manage your positions by raising stops. Price targets merely give us a potential of where the market can go. I think a move back below 47.50 would invalidate this pattern.

Posted by Brian at 8/30/2007 11:43:00 AM

Wednesday, August 29, 2007Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern Developing?
The market is in a downtrend. It should be considered "guilty until proven innocent". But our analysis cannot be closed to the potential of a turnaround. Looking at the market one sidedly catches most people off guard because they do not see the potential for a reversal. This is not a market call, just some information that may help you understand the current trading environment better. Right now in the SP500, the 200 day MA is advancing, just as it was in 2005 and 2006 when bottomed out near that key longer term moving average. Right now the SPY is finding resistance at the declining 50 day MA, just as it did in 2005 and 2006 just before making a higher low. The higher lows (preceding the break of the H&S neckline) in 2005 and 2006 came on lighter volume than the previous low, this may be occuring now.

Again, the trend is lower. Anyone can see that. In order to make money we cannot just be observers of what has already happened, we have to be able to ANTICIPATE potential future scenarios so we are prepared to go which ever way the market dictates.

SPY TODAY

SPY 2006

SPY 2005

Posted by Brian at 8/29/2007 09:11:00 AM

Tuesday, August 28, 2007Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
The chart below is some information requested from "RP", he asked for the VWAP from today and this week. I also added the VWAP from August 16 through today and then August 17 through today. What this chart reveals is that from the large volume reversal we saw on the 16th, the Qs have traded at an average price of 46.49, this is a level that may be defended by the bulls, but the trend is lower so I wouldn't buy based on that (guilty til proven innocent). Of more interest is that from the Fed's "surprise move" through todays close, the average transaction in the Qs was executed at a price of 47.01. This is of more interest because many participants feel that move signaled the time when it was "safe" to enter the markets again. You have to think that the average participant is doubting their purchases and that could lead to more fearful selling.

Posted by Brian at 8/28/2007 08:55:00 PM

Stock Market Psychology
In response to "techtrader" in the comments below the video, here is a chart of the cycles of psychology overlaid on the chart. These cycles are like all market cycles in that they are fractal, they can be experienced on all timeframes. This is one of the slides I will be discussing during my online class on Friday, details are

Posted by Brian at 8/28/2007 08:28:00 PM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 09:04

Friday, August 24, 2007Countrywide Financial (CFC)
Did you buy the "good news" yesterday? If you did you are most likely losing money and you are not alone. 150 million shares changed hands after the Bank of America announcement, some as high as 26.50! The huge volume and the fact that the stock closed below the average price over the last 2 days shows that the market was not impressed with the $2 billion. The reaction is very similar to the move that Goldman Sachs made 2 weeks ago when they announced they were adding capital to their distressed hedge fund. If "good news" doesn't make these stocks go up, what will? CFC is in a downtrend and that makes it a very risky stock on the long side, ignore the headlines and focus on price action.

Posted by Brian at 8/24/2007 08:27:00 AM

T-Bills?
Treasury bill (from wikipedia)
Treasury bills (or T-bills) mature in one year or less. Like zero-coupon bonds, they do not pay interest prior to maturity; instead they are sold at a discount of the par value to create a positive yield to maturity. Many regard treasury bills to be the most risk-free investment for U.S. investors. T-Bills are commonly issued with maturity dates of 28 days (or 4 weeks, about 1 month), 91 days (or 13 weeks, about 3 months), and 182 days (or 26 weeks, about 6 months). Treasury Bills are sold by single price auctions held weekly. Offering amounts for 13-week and 26-week bills are announced each Thursday for auction at 1:00 pm on the following Monday and settlement, or issuance, on Thursday. Offering amounts for 4-week bills are announced on Monday for auction the next day, Tuesday, at 1:00 pm and issuance on Thursday. Purchase orders at TreasuryDirect must be entered before 11:30 on the Monday of the auction. The minimum purchase amount is $1,000. (This amount formerly had been $10,000.) Mature T-bills are also redeemed on each Thursday. Banks and financial institutions, especially primary dealers, are the largest purchasers of T-Bills. They are quoted for purchase and sale in the secondary market on an annualized percentage yield to maturity, or basis. With the advent of TreasuryDirect, individuals can now purchase T-Bills online and have funds withdrawn and deposited directly to their personal bank account and earn higher interest rates on their savings. General calculation for yield on Treasury bills is

Yield = (Face Value - Price) * 360/Days %

This chart represents the yield on T-Bills, it is an inverse relationship to the actual price of the T-Bills which means T-Bills are in huge demand over the last 3 weeks.

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Friday, August 17, 2007Video Stock Market Technical Analysis 8/17/07
Pre market, the S&P 500 futures contract was down 25 points and then at about 8:15 AM Eastern the Fed came in and saved the day by cutting the discount loan rate by 50 basis points. The market has been expecting a “surprise” move from the Fed and today it got it. What was impressive is that the gains held and the market closed near the highs of the day. Yesterday’s huge volume signaled a continued upside move, but with the 50 day moving averages still heading lower stocks should be exited again at the first signs of weakness on the short term timeframes.

Posted by Brian at 8/17/2007 03:56:00 PM

Posted by Brian at 8/17/2007 09:29:00 AM

Nasdaq 100 VWAP Support
Wow, these things exploded. I have been trading the Qs as it pulls back to the VWAP

Posted by Brian at 8/17/2007 08:46:00 AM

Posted by Brian at 8/17/2007 08:23:00 AM

Measured Move Price Target SP 500
156.00 - 142.53 = 13.47
150.59 - 13.47 = 137.12

Posted by Brian at 8/16/2007 12:13:00 PM

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-25 09:06

Fed Actions Ineffective?
This chart shows the QQQQ from Friday to current levels. The market just broke below the Volume Weighted Average Price since Friday which indicates that the sellers are regaining control and the that the actions of the Fed are becoming irrelevant to traders in the Nasdaq 100. Goldman Sachs is hitting new recent lows today and I think that stock is a good indication of where the market is headed.

Posted by Brian at 8/14/2007 10:14:00 AM

GigaOm.com
is an online news and weblog published by GigaOmniMedia, Inc., a San Francisco-based company. We deliver technology news, analysis and opinions on topics ranging from broadband to online games and Web 2.0 to a monthly global audience of 500,000 consumers and professionals interested in the world of hi-tech. Our readers include industry leaders, venture capitalists, investment professionals and entrepreneurs around the world. Our unique combination of in-depth reporting, editorial articles, community opinion polls, and internet market metrics highlight the most interesting startups, products, and people in technology. GigaOM.com is ranked in the top 100 IT news sites by Hitwise, an Internet tracking service. The site is among the top 50 blogs as ranked by Technorati, and part of C/Net 100 Most Influential Blogs.

Om Malik is the founder of the site and you can view his WALLSTRIP interview.

Posted by Brian at 8/14/2007 08:38:00 AM

Monday, August 13, 2007Interesting Blog Traffic to Stock Market Relationship
I was looking at my year to date blog traffic report and I noticed that it is almost the exact inverse of the chart of the QQQQ. A simple explaination is that when times are good market participants are complacent and that when the markets show downside, traders and investors are looking for reasons. I don't think this chart shows anything new and I don't it will help us make money but I know a lot of you are chart geeks like me and think it's interesting. I think I was on vacation on week 27 which is why readership diverged so strongly, this also happened in March.

this is an actual blog traffic report from January 1 through today.

Posted by Brian at 8/13/2007 10:37:00 PM

Return to Neckline and VWAP
will the Qs hold here or is it another trap in a downtrend?

Posted by Brian at 8/10/2007 12:55:00 PM

Friday, August 10, 2007Buyers In Control of Qs
at least for now. The market just found support at the VWAP and VWAP is turning higher. There is still a lot of risk in the market but from an intraday perspective, this action is encouraging.

Posted by Brian at 8/10/2007 11:14:00 AM

The More Times Support Is Tested
the weaker it becomes as buyers lose conviction and that support often gives. I am not making predictions, but the path of least resistance is lower. I repeat that only the most aggressive and disciplined traders should be involved in this market.

Posted by Brian at 8/10/2007 09:13:00 AM

Overnight Trading
in the futures has been ugly, below are charts from midnight Eastern til approx 8AM Eastern. Get ready for a bad open...unless you're short (:

Posted by Brian at 8/10/2007 07:52:00 AM

Resistance at VWAP
Right now the Qs seem to be finding resistance at the daily Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) which can be loosely interpreted as the sellers have control of the session as the averege price Qs have traded at is higher than current levels.

Posted by Brian at 8/09/2007 12:33:00 PM

Would This Man Be a Good Trader?
When asked about about whether he agreed that Obama was like Dr. Strangelove, President Bush's response was that he wouldn't comment on Presidential politics today and that in the future he would "hopefully be disciplined enough not to fall for that trap" of answering such questions. I thought that was a great response and one that resonated with current market conditions. Did you fall for the opening gap trap or were you disciplined? Will you fall for future traps?

Posted by Brian at 8/09/2007 10:47:00 AM

Go Slow, Be Careful
After a reader comment yesterday, I wondered if I was overstating the need to "go slow" and "be cautious" in this market. The reader commented that we never have true certainty and I agree, however in the current market conditions we are seeing unusual volatility and I still believe that the majority of participants should be mainly in cash right now and only the most aggressive traders should be attempting to navigate these uncertain markets. If you are an aggressive trader, you know who you are. If you are "trying to do some daytrades" you will likely get crushed. The market is falling further as I write this with the QQQQ now at 48.35. Yesterday afternoon's low of 48.40 will be important as a potential support area (although we're below it now) as will the location of the rising 5 dma (near 48.04) and then the low from Tuesday (47.48). My advice in unchanged...go slow and be careful!

Don'f forget to check out

Posted by Brian at 8/09/2007 08:50:00 AM

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