一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Financials & A Daytrade
as represented by the XLF are approaching what has been a key level of support at 24.40, breaking that level could lead to broader weakness.



Posted by Brian at 5/28/2008 10:04:00 AM

Labels: trades




David Karp
is the founder of TUMBLR and today, Julie sits down with him on Wallstrip for a chat.

For those of you who use twitter, check out the stock application STOCKTWEETS

Bespoke has a fascinating look at localized REAL ESTATE pricing trends.

Posted by Brian at 5/28/2008 09:00:00 AM





Tuesday, May 27, 2008Stock Market Trend Analysis Video 5/27/08

Be sure to see the QUESTIONS from ADAM about my book.



Posted by Brian at 5/27/2008 04:09:00 PM





Charts and Questions
The Qs are stabilizing better than the SPY, but the declining 5DMA offered resistance on the first rally attempt.



Adam from the Daily Options Report came up with a list of QUESTIONS after reading my book.

Posted by Brian at 5/27/2008 12:41:00 PM

Labels: book review




Monday, May 26, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 5/26/08


Posted by Brian at 5/26/2008 03:52:00 PM





"Gordon Gekko"
at KNIGHT TRADER BLOG wrote a review of MY BOOK.

Here is an excerpt
"Brian Shannon's book technical analysis through multiple time frames is a modern day version of Stan Weinstein's trading principles applied to 21st Century technology. Brian takes difficult technical analysis concepts and explains them in a way that makes them easy to understand and comprehend."

Read the entire review HERE and be sure to check his blog each day for trading ideas.

I'm still having difficulties with getting recordings done on my new computer, but here are some stocks I will be looking at during the first couple days of the coming trading week. Again, these are just what appear to be low risk/ high potential profit setups, they are not recommendations. There is still a lot of opportunity in many of the volatile shipping and solar plays for aggressive intraday traders.

POTENTIAL LONG CANDIDATES


POTENTIAL SHORT CANDIDATES


RISK MANAGEMENT IS JOB #1



Posted by Brian at 5/26/2008 09:56:00 AM

Labels: book review, trade ideas




Friday, May 23, 2008
No Video Today

I am switching to a new computer and am having some trouble moving some files, check back tomorrow. Enjoy your long weekend!

Posted by Brian at 5/23/2008 03:59:00 PM





Done For the Day
Back after the close with a video. If you are bored check out the SAMPLE PAGES of my book.

To clear up any confusion, books will be shipped on JUNE 7 and they are only available at www.technicalanlsysisbook.com You will not find the book on Amazon, in Barnes and Noble or anywhere else.




The logic of the sells in this trade are clearly outlined in the book.

Posted by Brian at 5/23/2008 10:27:00 AM

Labels: trades




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Oil Rally
Picking tops is a fools game. Short sellers have been crushed during this oil rally and the trend remains higher. The chart below suggests a POTENTIAL level where this market may find some selling, just below 135. Longs should have tight stops.



Posted by Brian at 5/22/2008 09:53:00 AM










Sellers

are in control of the short term trend. The Qs are at a potential support level but buying doesn't make sense until there are better signs of stabilization. The breakdown in the financials will likely keep pressure on the markets.



Posted by Brian at 5/20/2008 11:39:00 AM





Answers to A Couple of Trading Questions
The point of showing my order book yesterday was to emphasize how my number one focus is always risk management. At the time I entered many of the stocks, I expected them to continue to trend for most of the day. Even with expectations for continued movement higher, I sold partial positions into strength early on. I tend to go in aggressively as momentum builds and then scale out into continued strength. It is never my thought that I am selling at the top, instead, I am trying to reduce risk by realizing some profits and reducing my exposure. There are many times that a stock will continue to go higher without me and I am comfortable with that because, as we saw yesterday, the market can reverse quickly and erase all profits if you do not aggressively manage open positions. Some people say "winners take care of themselves" and that is nonsense. The attitude of complacency will allow many winners turn into losers.

My biggest mistake yesterday was to purchase ESLR and YGE in the pre-market. I chased both of these stocks higher as they gapped up and I have found that most of the time I buy before the 9:30 open I do not have good results. I am usually not at my desk until 30 minutes opens on a Monday, but yesterday I sat down early and I became anxious to participate as I saw the solar stocks gapping higher.

Yesterday I was extra cautious with my long positions because the moves seemed "too easy" in too many issues. When the moves come quickly, confidence is high amongst the unprepared and reversals are often close by, "when life looks like easy street, there is danger at your door." As the saying goes, you want to be confident when others are fearful and fearful when others are confident. I do not think you want to be "fearful" ever, fear is one of the emotions which indicates you should have taken action earlier. Instead, you want to be on "high alert" for signs of weakness and yesterday it was the hard reversals in solar stocks at about 1:40 PM which showed reason for concern. When the leaders of a rally break down it breaks the confidence of buyers and other stocks follow lower.

Want to know more about position management and what to look for when it comes time to exit? I know a good book..

Posted by Brian at 5/20/2008 08:42:00 AM

Labels: trade ideas




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Risk Management is Job 1
Bulls and Bears make money
Greedy pigs get slaughtered
and disciplined pigs become rich!



Posted by Brian at 5/19/2008 02:22:00 PM

Labels: trades




Tighten Your Stops


Posted by Brian at 5/19/2008 02:09:00 PM





Brinks Co, (BCO)
is the stock on WALLSTRIP today.

Here's a look at the current technical condition of the stock.


Posted by Brian at 5/19/2008 07:50:00 AM





Sunday, May 18, 2008Stocks for Next Week
Last Saturday I posted some stocks I would be watching for Potential trend trades those stocks are in the table below. As much as I liked some of the setups, I did not expect the group to do as well as they did. The average stock on the list gained over 8% on the week. Seventeen of the stocks were up more than 10%! The best performing stocks were related to solar, shipping and Chinese companies. Of course there were losers too. Only one of the six short sale candidates declined in price, but the worst loser was a long candidate. The stock which lost the most was one I traded and posted the trade on FEED As the title of that post indicates, risk management is job number one of any market participant. I traded that stock long on the day it dropped hard but because of my risk management, I still made money on the trade.



I do not recommend individual stock trades, I trade the stocks on the list and do not ever want to be accused of shady dealings by telling anyone to buy a stock which I already own. If I did not trade them myself, then I might give buy and sell instructions, but if you really want to succeed in the markets you need to think for yourself. To find out how I find these stocks, how I trade the stocks on the list and how I manage risk, it is laid out very clearly IN MY BOOK Seventy five bucks isn't much for that info.

Here are some new ideas. I will continue to trade stocks like SOLF, CSUN, etc but I have not included many of the names which have already run, the ones below appear to be near a low risk entry level with good trend potential. Anticipate all scenarios, wait for price action to confirm before taking action and then aggressively manage risk with discipline.

If you expect nothing
and are prepared for anyything
you should never be surprised.

POTENTIAL LONGS



POTENTIAL SHORTS


Posted by Brian at 5/18/2008 06:19:00 AM

Labels: trade ideas




Friday, May 16, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 5/16/08





Posted by Brian at 5/16/2008 04:31:00 PM





Yahoo Is Not
on my radar, but these stocks look worth watching for upside today.


PWRD reports earnings Monday before market open.

CLNE and GA gapped lower...AVOID

Posted by Brian at 5/16/2008 09:19:00 AM

Labels: trade ideas




Today's Wallstrip
Julie does her "man on the street" interviews to get opinions about whether people prefer video games or movies. She also answers some important questions such as "are they real?" Be sure to listen to the guys response to Julie's FINAL QUESTION

Control your TRADING DEMONS

Posted by Brian at 5/16/2008 07:53:00 AM





Thursday, May 15, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 5/15/08


Be sure to scroll down and click on the link to Charles Kirk's 10 questions about my book.



Posted by Brian at 5/15/2008 04:15:00 PM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, May 15, 2008Climbing A Barrel of Worry


Posted by Brian at 5/15/2008 03:56:00 PM





10 Questions
Charles Kirk recently reviewed my book and he asked me to answer 10 questions that he had after reading it. You can find the Q&A ON HIS SITE Charles is truly a class act and one of the original blogs which inspired me to start one of my own. I doubt that anyone who reads this blog is unfamiliar with the Kirk Report, but if you are not, then be sure to visit regularly. Thanks Charles!

A great source for business (and all other) news is NEWSFLASHR

Posted by Brian at 5/15/2008 11:25:00 AM

Labels: book review




Risk Management
is job #1 for traders. Below is a look at a trade I made in Agfeed Industries (FEED) this morning. I ended up making just $70, but you can see that the timing of my sells allowed me to sidestep a potential disaster.



Posted by Brian at 5/15/2008 11:16:00 AM

Labels: trades




Wednesday, May 14, 2008The Trend in Crude Oil
continues to be higher. Click the chart below.



Posted by Brian at 5/14/2008 08:54:00 PM





Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 5/14/08





Do you have a great idea that needs Venture Capital Backing

Posted by Brian at 5/14/2008 04:12:00 PM





Stocks To Watch



Posted by Brian at 5/14/2008 09:32:00 AM





Priceline.com Inc (PCLN)
is the stock on WALLSTRIP stock today.

There seems to be no slowdown in the price of the stock.


Posted by Brian at 5/14/2008 07:31:00 AM





Tuesday, May 13, 2008Stock Market Trend Trade Review 051308




Here is what CHARLES KIRK has to say about my book. Click the picture to go see the full review. Charles also gave me 10 questions to answer about the book, I will be getting them back to him later in the week and will let you know when they are posted.



Posted by Brian at 5/13/2008 04:12:00 PM

Labels: book review




Screener Questions
I received a few questions about the stocks I posted on Saturday. All of the stocks were found the old fashioned way, I manually search through hundreds of stocks each weekend to come up with a list of stocks to watch for the following week. I only used Finviz as an effective way to display those stocks. The process of how I find those stocks is explained thoroughly in Chapter 18 of my book.

As for what do I look for as a trigger to enter a trade on those stocks, it is when the trends are aligned across multiple timeframes. For swing trades, I use the DAILY chart to identify a trade candidate, the 30 MINUTE timeframe to identify if there is a favorable risk/reward ratio and the 10/5/2 MINUTE timeframe to fine tune my analysis for entry points and to manage risk.

Posted by Brian at 5/13/2008 07:49:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, May 12, 2008June 7
is the day my book will be shipped out. If you would like your book autographed without having to send it back to me, order no later than May 31.



Posted by Brian at 5/12/2008 06:23:00 PM





Stock Market Video 5/12/08





Posted by Brian at 5/12/2008 03:05:00 PM





Sell In May
and go away? Here's some good RESEARCH on the subject.

I spoke to Andrew Horowitz of the Disciplined Investor about my book you can listen to it HERE Be sure to subscribe to his excellent weekly podcast, he does a great job.

I will be conducting a class this Friday, here is where you can SIGNUP and you can review what previous ATTENDEES have had to say.

Posted by Brian at 5/12/2008 01:22:00 PM





Ventas Inc, (VTR)
the WALLSTRIP stock today.



Posted by Brian at 5/12/2008 07:21:00 AM





Saturday, May 10, 2008Stocks Setting Up For Trend Trades
Below are some stocks I will be watching for potential trades next week. When I look for stocks to trade I do not set out to find longs or shorts, I just look for what appear to be low risk opportunities. This week I have quite a few more bullish looking stocks than bearish ones. I have not checked any fundamental news for any of these stocks and I am not making any recommendations, only showing you where I think there is the potential for movement. Risk management is job #1, do not chase stocks which have already moved. When entering any of these stocks, be sure to assess risk relative to reward on shorter term time frames and if that concept is not one you are familiar with there is an excellent book on the subject that I know of...

POTENTIAL LONGS





POTENTIAL SHORTS


The screen captures of the charts are from FINVIZ Each time I visit Finviz, I am more impressed with the excellent information they provide, be sure to check the Insider tab if you have any interest in what insiders are doing in their stocks.

Posted by Brian at 5/10/2008 05:56:00 PM

Labels: trade ideas




Friday, May 09, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Review 5/9/08






Posted by Brian at 5/09/2008 04:17:00 PM





Google Inc (GOOG)
the WALLSTRIP stock today.


The stock has been strong since reporting earnings and it looks like it could continue higher. The video also takes a look at shares of ISRG - Intuitive Surgical, Inc. since that company reported earnings on the same day as Google.


Posted by Brian at 5/09/2008 08:19:00 AM





Thursday, May 08, 2008Stock Market Video Technical Analysis 5/8/08





Posted by Brian at 5/08/2008 04:12:00 PM





Mixed Messages
Nasdaq is up, but backing away from the 48.50 level identified as potential resistance in last nights video. The SPY is down slightly, but remains under 140 and the 5 DMA is now declining.



Posted by Brian at 5/08/2008 12:29:00 PM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

30 Minute Charts
of the SPY show a lower high and some resistance near 49.25 in the Qs. Yesterday's rally has lost momentum and it may signal a need for more sideways action to digest the gains of the last month.



Posted by Brian at 5/07/2008 01:14:00 PM





Man on The Street Opinions
of what went wrong with the MSFT/YHOO deal on WALLSTRIP today.

I'm staying away from both stocks, I don't see any edge in getting involved.

Here is one of Dr.Brett's Ten Core Ideas of Trading Psychology

Practice does not make perfect in trading or anything else; perfect practice makes perfect. Training must gradually build competencies and correct deficiencies in a manner that sustains a positive mindset and optimal concentration and motivation.

Posted by Brian at 5/07/2008 08:53:00 AM





Tuesday, May 06, 2008Stock Market Video Review 5/6/08





Posted by Brian at 5/06/2008 04:11:00 PM





Surprise Rally?
If you expect nothing
and are prepared for anything,
you should never be surprised.

Posted by Brian at 5/06/2008 01:31:00 PM





AU Optronics Corp (AUO)
has attracted a large and growing short position over the last six months. I'm not sure what they see, but so far they are fighting the trend. The short position has grown by over 10 million shares since the end of November and the average price during that time was 18.97. The average short since the end of November is now down by over $1.50. If I was short I would be very concerned. I didn't dig into the fundamentals, but the most recent quarter, revenues increased by 85% and earnings were 1.12/share versus an estimate of just 0.48 I own some call options and a little bit of stock, which I intend to add to.






Posted by Brian at 5/06/2008 11:49:00 AM





Globe and Mail
is Canada's leading newspaper. This morning they have an article about favorite FINANCIAL BLOGS of people like HOWARD Separate from the article is a poll to VOTE for your favorite blog.

Posted by Brian at 5/06/2008 08:44:00 AM





Monday, May 05, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 5/5/08




Posted by Brian at 5/05/2008 04:15:00 PM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

It Didn't Take Long
or the buyers to show up in RIMM again. The stock is back above the rising 5 DMA and buyers are now fighting for control near the daily VWAP. 124.50 looks like an important level for today.



Posted by Brian at 5/01/2008 10:24:00 AM





Research In Motion (RIMM) Update
In yesterday's video I mentioned that we wanted to see a pullback to prior resistance near 124 and then to buy the stock once the buyers re-established short term control of the stock. We got the pullback, but it kept pulling back, so the stock should not have been purchased. We never know if a prior level of resistance will act as support, they are only POTENTIAL levels where we want to study price action further for evidence which backs our theory. Right now, I would avoid RIMM until it can show signs that the buyers have take back control of the short term trends.



Posted by Brian at 5/01/2008 09:24:00 AM













The Break of Resistance
is not as important as the subsequent action. The looked like they were breaking out above 140.00, but a good plan is prepared for ALL scenarios so if losses develop they are not allowed to grow into a serious problem



Posted by Brian at 4/30/2008 03:18:00 PM





Uptrends Intact
Trading will become volatile after 2:15pm



I find myself viewing SHANE'S SITE more often.

Posted by Brian at 4/30/2008 12:06:00 PM











Sneak Move Higher
the markets rarely do what "everyone expects" and the quiet consolidation has turned into a nice rally in the Qs with yesterday's high being taken out. The significance of 47 as potential support going forward is reinforced by this move.



Posted by Brian at 4/29/2008 03:03:00 PM





Holding Up
The markets continue to hold up but it still seems tired. Sidelines seem like the place for most participants as the market waits for the Fed announcement tomorrow.



Posted by Brian at 4/29/2008 12:55:00 PM









Tuesday, April 29, 2008Pre-Open Look


As I stated in yesterday's video, the markets have been trying to work through resistance (140- SPY) and they seem tired. The Nasdaq 100 has made a lower high and making a lower low below 46.50 would break the put that market back below the recent uptrend line and below the 5DMA. If the Qs cannot hold above 46.50 and SPY breaks below 138, I would interpret that as a reason to be more defensive.

Posted by Brian at 4/29/2008 09:09:00 AM









Visa (V)
is the WALLSTRIP stock today.











Support Held
The markets held above key levels and buyers are back in control.



Posted by Brian at 4/24/2008 11:35:00 AM

hefeiddd

Thursday, April 24, 2008Careful
Selling is hard in the solars and they have been leading the market lately, that is not a good sign. Other recent momentum areas are also selling off early on. The market is closing in on key levles (137 SPY and 46 QQQQ) that if broken could lead to some panicky selling.



Posted by Brian at 4/24/2008 10:09:00 AM





Wednesday, April 23, 2008Apple Earnings After Hours Chart
The initial knee-jerk selloff in shares of AAPL brought the stock down as low as 154.88, but it recovered nicely it is now UP 21 cents from the regular session close of 162.89.



Posted by Brian at 4/23/2008 06:47:00 PM





Initial Reaction To Apple (AAPL)
Earnings is to "sell the news"



Posted by Brian at 4/23/2008 04:50:00 PM











30 Minute Trend Charts
The SPY is closing in on what should be a decent level of support near 137.00, failure to hold in that area will be reason for concern. The 137.00 level has further significance as it is the location of the rising 5 DMA. Nasdaq is relatively weaker and is back down to the level of prior resistance at 46.00. A little further weakness in the Qs down towards 45.80 would not come as a surprise, but anything deeper than that level would get me more defensive.



Posted by Brian at 4/22/2008 12:35:00 PM









Imclone Getting Squeezed


[url=]IMCL CALLS[/url]

Posted by Brian at 4/21/2008 10:31:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Buyers Back


Posted by Brian at 4/18/2008 10:45:00 AM





Profit Taking
the markets are trending lower below the daily VWAP and early buyers who chased the strength are in a losing position for now.



Posted by Brian at 4/18/2008 10:07:00 AM






Hi Brian,
Historically I have struggled with these big gaps overnight and then a continuation move for the rest of the day without any retracement...
I have gotten to where I, at least, don't fight it all day... but still not participating. Over the years, I've seen so many gaps fade that it's tough for me to "trust" the move...
Any comments would be appreciated.
Have a great day!

Daniel

Dainel,
Always ask two questions
1- where has the market come from? The Qs have rallied from a low of 43.68 to 46.38 as I type this.

2- where does the market have the potential to go before it is likely to encounter a source of supply that might act as resistance? The high on April 4 and April 7 was right near 46.40 and there were sellers in that area once before, will they be there again?

The market has expended quite a bit of energy getting to where it will open this morning and chasing prices doesn't seem to make sense. Keep and eye on the 0ne-minute chart for entry levels or just stand aside.

It is better being on the sidelines and wishing you were in than it is to be in and wishing you were on the sidelines.



Posted by Brian at 4/18/2008 08:54:00 AM











Thursday, April 17, 2008Google After Hours Chart


Posted by Brian at 4/17/2008 04:24:00 PM









Stocks Digesting Gains 30 Min Charts
The markets are digesting the gains from yesterday and the volume on the pullback suggest that this weakness is nothing more than profit taking. Key levels of potential support are 135.00 and 44.50-44.70



Posted by Brian at 4/17/2008 12:25:00 PM









Trend Day
The market is holding onto the overnight gains and today's action is looking very similar to the April 1 rally. The SPY is back above 135 and Qs back above 44.50, those levels will be important for the market to hold above.



Posted by Brian at 4/16/2008 10:46:00 AM







Tuesday, April 15, 2008Intel (INTC) Earnings
got the shorts scared and the market traded higher in the after hours. The Nasdaq was the biggest beneficiary as it closed above the declining 5 DMA. The SPY closed the session just under the 5DMA. There is still a lot of work for this market to turn around, but there is the possibility of a strong trend day tomorrow if the markets can hold onto the gains in early trading.



I drew in the high, low and close of the after hours session.

Posted by Brian at 4/15/2008 09:10:00 PM

hefeiddd

Tuesday, April 15, 200830 Minute Charts
The path of least resistance continues to be lower. 43.50 is an important level for the Qs.



Posted by Brian at 4/15/2008 11:33:00 AM





Monday, April 14, 2008Trend Trading Video Stock Market Review 4/14/08




Posted by Brian at 4/14/2008 04:18:00 PM





General Electric 10 Years
The chart below shows the last 10 years (120 months) of trading in General Electric (GE). On Friday the stock closed at 32.05. The average price the stock traded at over the entire 10 year period is approximately 35.90. The average participant over the last 10 years is down $3.85/share (not including dividends). The green shaded areas are the times where the stock traded below Friday's close, these people are making money. The light red shaded area shows times where GE traded above Friday's close, these participants are losing money.



Posted by Brian at 4/14/2008 10:50:00 AM





Earnings Reports
can be a catalyst for large price movements. This week we will see a heavy release of earnings from some large and influential stocks. I will be watching those large ones for market direction and possibly some trade opportunities, but being options expiration week, there can be some "special situations" to take advantage of with at the money to slightly out of the money options. For a very small portion of my risk capital, I sometimes purchase options on stocks where there appears to be a large potential move. Because the path of least resistance for the market is lower, I am choosing to concentrate on put positions this week. Some of the stocks I am considering purchasing puts on are:
INFY
STX
AVCT
CHKP
IART
The only fundamental information I am aware of in any of these stocks is that they are reporting earnings this week. These are bets. High risk, high potential reward. I trade them small. I do not have any favorites from the list and I may trade all or none of them. I do not make any recommendations so I will not answer any email questions regarding trade specific information. Good luck if you choose to trade any of them.

Posted by Brian at 4/14/2008 08:21:00 AM





Burlington Northern (BNI)
is the stock on WALLSTRIP today.

The stock backed off from all time highs last week, but there is no evidence of any damage to the powerful uptrend. 85 looks like the best level of potential support if the stock continues lower.



Posted by Brian at 4/14/2008 08:15:00 AM





Saturday, April 12, 2008Up for the Month?
On March 31, the SPY closed at 131.97.
On Friday, the SPY closed at 133.38.
For the month, the SPY is up 1.41.
Those are the facts.

But is the average participant up for the month? If they bought at any time during April and are still holding the answer is no (except for a handful of people who bought late Friday). The average price the SPY has traded at this month is at 136.12, this number represents the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) since the beginning of the month. The April 1 move got a lot of attention but now those gains are rapidly deteriorating.

The rally from low near 131 to the high near 138.60 has now retraced more than 61.8% which is technically considered to be a failed move.



Price has memory and the more recent the price activity (in particular if there was a strong emotional event like we saw) the fresher the memory and the stronger the emotional responses. Time heals all wounds right? Well the recent financial wounds are still in need of much more time to heal and the risks in this market remain large as it struggles to find a bottom. Earnings reports this week from some large and important company's (GOOG, MER, ISRG, SPWR, EBAY, WM, C, IBM, JPM, etc) will make it extra treacherous.

Posted by Brian at 4/12/2008 08:36:00 AM





Friday, April 11, 2008Trading & Investing Video Technical Analysis 4/11/08


Video on the way





Posted by Brian at 4/11/2008 04:18:00 PM





Stocks Are Going
to open lower in today's trading. The SPY is trading back below the important 135.00 level, but the Qs are holding above the lows of the week. The market will continue to experience wild volatility as the pace of earnings releases continues to increase. Risk Management!



Posted by Brian at 4/11/2008 08:34:00 AM





Stepan Company (SCL)
is the stock on WALLSTRIP today.

Did you see THIS EPISODE? It was nominated for a Webby. Follow the link to vote for it, I did.

Posted by Brian at 4/11/2008 07:53:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Impressive Bullish Action
particularly from the SMH which has completely recovered.



Posted by Brian at 4/10/2008 11:00:00 AM





Wednesday, April 09, 2008Video Stock Market Technical Analysis 040908




Posted by Brian at 4/09/2008 04:16:00 PM





Lower Lows & Broken Trendlines
Yesterday it was the Semis which broke lower and provided reason for caution. Today, the Financials are back below their key level (26.00). The weakness has also caused further erosion in SPY and Qs which have broken lower as well.



Posted by Brian at 4/09/2008 01:16:00 PM





Support & Resistance Levels
are only know
after the fact
. For now, the Qs are coming down to
potential

support on the 30 minute timeframe. The 2 day. 2 min timeframe shows no evidence of support, at least not yet. Early buyers are often shake out on retests. I am waiting for further PROOF of support and strength before I consider buying the Qs.



Posted by Brian at 4/09/2008 10:08:00 AM










Semiconductors Broke
lower and that is another reason for continued caution.



Posted by Brian at 4/08/2008 12:01:00 PM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Chuggin Higher
The market continues to be strong. There are a lot of good stocks pushing higher. The pullbacks in the solars should serve as a reminder to have a strategy in mind for locking in profits.



Posted by Brian at 4/07/2008 12:23:00 PM






Friday, April 04, 2008Symmetry in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ)


Posted by Brian at 4/04/2008 03:32:00 PM







Thursday, April 03, 2008Strength in The Semis
bodes well for the rest of the market, Nasdaq in particular.



Posted by Brian at 4/03/2008 01:19:00 PM





Impressive Action Continues
as the prior resistance levels are holding as support.



Posted by Brian at 4/03/2008 12:09:00 PM









Wednesday, April 02, 2008Research In Motion (RIMM)
reported earnings after the close today. The stock closed the regular session at 115.79 and is currently trading at 121.60. See the tick (500 ticks per bar) with a VWAP for today's entire session.



Posted by Brian at 4/02/2008 05:49:00 PM









Impressive Bullish Action
The buyers are back with a vengeance today and so far there is no letup to the pressure on shorts. The SPY and Qs are comfortable above the average price they have traded at since the January lows and that strengthens the bulls case.



Posted by Brian at 4/01/2008 12:38:00 PM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Tuesday, April 01, 2008Shorts In Trouble
The buying pressure has been non-stop this morning.



Posted by Brian at 4/01/2008 10:59:00 AM





Homebuilder Stocks
are showing some encouraging signs. The Homebuilder ETF (XHB) has been stabilizing near 20 lately and most of the stocks look similar to Hovaninan (HOV) shown below. The stocks have been battling with their 200 day MAs and it looks as though there could be a squeeze coming for the shorts. From June 15 through March 14, short sellers added 8.5 million shares, the average price of the stock during that period was approximatesly 11.15. The stock looks like it is in a low risk area for purchase with a worst case stop near 9.75. I have not looked at any fundamentals or when the earnings are due. I would suggest you also look at some of the other homebuilder stocks such as; PHM, RYL, DHI, NVR, CTX, etc.





Posted by Brian at 4/01/2008 09:16:00 AM










Newer Posts Older Posts Home




Financial Sector ETF (XLF)
tested the important level of 26.20 and has held so far which adds further significance to the 26-26.20 area. The biggest reason for concern (besides the longer term downtrend) is the low volume of the rally from support. Only price pays, so it does not make sense to fight the trend, but failure to make a higher high and a break below 26 could lead to a move back down towards 25.50.



Posted by Brian at 3/25/2008 02:00:00 PM





30 Minute Chart Updates
The markets continue to hold the gains with the SPY above the declining 50DMA for the second day. Volume is light once again, but that is not a reason to sell, only price pays.



Posted by Brian at 3/25/2008 12:34:00 PM





Daytrade Short Sale Gone Wrong
This is a question from a reader, I usually do not post these but thought it might be helpful to other readers.

Brian,
for instance with daytrading in mind:
- resistance is at 135
- sold short at 135
where to put stop on short SPY in this case, because it often happens, as it did yesterday, I get stopped out at 135,62 ... so give it a full point? or point and a half?
thanks, Dirk




Dirk,
Resistance is only know after the fact. You were looking for POTENTIAL resistance near 135, but it never materialized as the market blew right through that level with ease. A prior level of resistance (like 134.50-135 on SPY) is a place to watch the action closely for clues that the sellers are defending that level. When you identify such an inflection point, you then want to switch the analysis to a shorter time frame for confirmation of a low risk/high profit potential trade. Looking at the 1 minute chart you can see the arrows I put in to show your entry and exit. At the time of entry the market was in a solid uptrend with a quickly advancing daily VWAP, you were fighting the trend and odds were against you. The market continued to make a series of higher highs and higher lows right up until after you exited (I know how much that hurts). Forget resistance, VWAP, moving averages and everything else for a moment and look a the the 1 minute chart price action only. UPTREND- higher highs and higher lows. If the market is in an uptrend on the time frame you are trading, why sell short? Wait for price confirmation and then use the definition of a downtrend (lower highs and lower lows) for your stops. Once you have entered a short sale, you want to trail your stops lower just above the most relevant lower high (violation of the lower high nullifies the downtrend)(corrected 5pm Eastern sorry for the confusion). There is usually no reason to risk more than $0.40 - .50 on a daytrade in SPY.

Posted by Brian at 3/25/2008 08:13:00 AM










Impressive Action
today, although the volume seems to be running a little low for now. The SPY and QQQQ have made it above key intermediate term levels of prior resistance (134.50 and 43.50 respectively). The rally has brought these markets back above their declining 50 day moving averages and the direction of the key averages suggests that this short term strength will have to be digested over the next few sessions. It is likely that the 134.50 and 43.50 levels will be tested as support in the coming days but for now there is no sign of letup in the upward momentum. As always, risk management is job #1.



Posted by Brian at 3/24/2008 12:16:00 PM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

13 Week T Bill Index
The yield on the t-bill index continues to plummet, that is not bullish.



Posted by Brian at 3/20/2008 08:47:00 AM





Wednesday, March 19, 2008Video Stock Market Technical Analysis 3/19/08




Stock Market Technical Analysis 3/19/08 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 3/19/2008 04:37:00 PM





30 Minute Charts
The markets are digesting the gains and doing battle with the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) from the January lows.



Posted by Brian at 3/19/2008 12:59:00 PM








Posted by Brian at 3/19/2008 11:09:00 AM





Not Impressed
with this stock



Posted by Brian at 3/19/2008 10:19:00 AM





1 MIN VWAP
When buying pullbacks, you do not want to buy on weakness because disasters like DFS can happen. Instead you want to monitor the pullback, wait for buyers to regain control the buy with a stop below recent lows. DFS may be stabilizing here, but it looks like the short sellers are defending their position aggressively.



Posted by Brian at 3/19/2008 09:55:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, March 19, 2008Visa (V) IPO Today
here's a potential sympathy play.
looking to buy lower, worst case stop near 15.45



10 million shares added short since December 14th (blue arrow) VWAP from Dec 14 to March 18 = 14.99



Discover Financial Services (DFS) is a credit card issuer and electronic payment services company. The Company is also engaged in payments processing. The Company’s business segments include U.S. Card, Third-Party Payments and International Card. The U.S. Card segment includes Discover Card-branded credit cards issued over Discover’s card network (the Discover Network), and other consumer lending and deposit products offered through the Company’s Discover Bank subsidiary. The Third-Party Payments segment includes PULSE EFT Association (the PULSE Network), an automated teller machine (ATM), debit and electronic funds transfer network, and the Company’s third-party payments business. The International Card segment includes credit cards, and consumer lending products and services in the United Kingdom through the Company’s Goldfish Bank subsidiary. During the year ended December 31, 2007, the Company processed 3.8 billion transactions through the Discover Network and the PULSE Network.

Posted by Brian at 3/19/2008 09:25:00 AM





American Ecology (ECOL)
is the stock on WALLSTRIP today.

Here's a look at the technicals.



Posted by Brian at 3/19/2008 08:32:00 AM





Tuesday, March 18, 2008Video Stock Market Technical Analysis 3/18/08



TEchnical Analysis Stock Market Review 3/18/08 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 3/18/2008 04:18:00 PM





30 Minute SPY & QQQQ
The choppy action continues to display itself on the 30 minute timeframe where there is the potential for resistance not far from current levels. Today's strength is impressive after yesterday's activity, but how long will it last?



Posted by Brian at 3/18/2008 11:46:00 AM





Some Pressure Off the Fed
News from Goldman Sachs Group (GS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH) has scared short sellers again and the 1.5% rally in the futures might take some pressure off the Fed today. Liquidity was the problem for BSC and now the GS and LEH are saying it isn't so bad for them the Fed may not have to be as aggressive as some had been expecting. But didn't the BSC chairman say there were no liquidity issues three days before that company imploded? Only trust price!


Pre-market trading in GS and LEH has these stocks up significantly.

Posted by Brian at 3/18/2008 09:01:00 AM





Monday, March 17, 2008Class On Thursday
I will be conducting an online class this Thursday, March 20. The subject will be understanding market structure on multiple time frames. It is based on how I view the markets and includes specific entry and exit strategies with an emphasis on understanding and anticipating market psychology.

You can find more information and SIGNUP HERE. The class size will be limited to the first ten registrants. *****SOLD OUT*****

Type "class feedback" in the search function above the Alpha Trends header to view previous attendees comments about the class.

Posted by Brian at 3/17/2008 09:09:00 PM





Video Stock Market Technical Analysis 3/17/08




Stock Market Technical Analysis 3/17/08 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 3/17/2008 03:24:00 PM





Only Price Pays
This is not a suggestion to buy. I am only pointing out that the markets are battling with the daily VWAP despite the terrible headlines.



Posted by Brian at 3/17/2008 02:46:00 PM








Posted by Brian at 3/17/2008 11:59:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Sunday, March 16, 2008The VIX and Program Curbs
The Market volatility index or (VIX) is widely referred to as the "fear index" I rarely mention it because I haven't found it to be particularly useful for my style of trading. No fear in being in cash during uncertain times.

Here's a BETTER EXPLANATION of what it is. The chart below shows the monthly trading data of the volatility index since 1990. It will be interesting to see if it makes a new all time high tomorrow (above 45.74). Will a breakout mean it gets "Wallstripped"? (:





Here's a refresher on PROGRAM CURBS (just in case)

Posted by Brian at 3/16/2008 10:17:00 PM





2-2.5% Now


Posted by Brian at 3/16/2008 10:09:00 PM





Futures Markets Down 1.5%+
Futures are down significantly in the thinly traded overnight session. Things can change quickly in the after hours but a real panic sell off could be in for tomorrow. Get your rest tonight!



Posted by Brian at 3/16/2008 08:55:00 PM





Friday, March 14, 2008Stock Market Video Technical Analysis Review 3/14/08
It didn't "feel like" the Nasdaq and Russell were up this week, but numbers don't lie.




Stock Market Technical Analysis 3/14/08 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 3/14/2008 03:57:00 PM





Hold Onto Your Hat

Buzzy... go get the gold!

Posted by Brian at 3/14/2008 02:14:00 PM





The Average Price
since the Fed actions on Tuesday is represented by teh blue moving average. People who bought after that move are in a negative position and it is getting worse as that moving average continues to decline. If the support levels fail, it could be a real ugly close today. Money management is job #1.



Posted by Brian at 3/14/2008 01:19:00 PM





The Daily VWAP
shows that sellers remain in control of today's session.


Posted by Brian at 3/14/2008 11:37:00 AM





Don't Try To
be a hero and buy into all this uncertainty. One thing the market hates most is uncertainty. Only the most aggressive, experienced and disciplined traders should be involved in this market.



Posted by Brian at 3/14/2008 10:28:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

3 Day VWAP
The average participant since Monday's monster rally is now back to profitable position in the QQQQ and IWM, the SPY and XLF are struggling with that level, but volume patterns are bullish for the short term.



Posted by Brian at 3/13/2008 01:20:00 PM





Inverted H&S Patterns
are developing. The primary trend remains lower but "bad news comes at short term bottoms" Let price guide your decisions.



Posted by Brian at 3/13/2008 12:31:00 PM








Posted by Brian at 3/13/2008 11:22:00 AM





Market Not Impressed
it could get even uglier here. The market isn't impressed with this press conference.



Posted by Brian at 3/13/2008 10:32:00 AM





Performance Anxiety
There is a tendency for traders to feel baldly about under performing the market averages on a daily or weekly basis, but success as a trader does not come from such short term measurements or comparisons. We all have our cycles of under or out performance, but over time, the true measurement of success in trading is being consistently profitable regardless of how the overall market is performing. At the end of each trading day you shouldn't focus solely on your P/L, instead you should focus on your thought process that day and how well you executed your plan. If you consistently execute your trades according to plan and still lose money then you may need to reevaluate your approach. While there is definitely a cyclical rhythm to the market, no strategy will always work. You need to constantly and objectively review what is working so you can make necessary adjustments to your plan.

You should always ask yourself whether your results are attributable to your ability to see the markets clearly and execute your plan with discipline, or if the market is making it easy to book profitable trades. There are times when the market makes a trader's job much easier and huge profits can be made in short periods of time, unfortunately those times do not last. The trick is to hold onto those profits when the market becomes more difficult. Many traders experience large losses after a string of profitable trades because they succumb to the feeling "that the losses aren't real, they are just giving back profits". This dangerous thinking is borne from complacency as a result of a feeling of infallibility which leaves the trader vulnerable to large losses. You always have to take all losses seriously and minimize them at the first chance without hesitation, doing otherwise is how amateurs trade. You know what an amateur trader is? Amateurs are traders who make big money in a bull market, give it all back when the trend ends and then blames their losses on the market. Professionals listen objectively to the message of the markets and adapt quickly to changing market conditions.

Posted by Brian at 3/13/2008 08:14:00 AM





Wednesday, March 12, 2008Ben's Tool Box


Posted by Brian at 3/12/2008 09:55:00 PM





Video Stock Market Review 3/12/08





I have uploaded only to Youtube and iTunes again today. If there is an issue with either of them it is out of my control, please complain to youtube and maybe they will get their act together.



Posted by Brian at 3/12/2008 04:15:00 PM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, March 12, 2008Upside Getting Stretched
but that does not mean fight the short term momentum. As the markets approach levels of potential resistance (from prior support and the VWAP from January lows) the best bet is to tighten stops on any long positions and to identify the best opportunities for if/when this strength fails.



Posted by Brian at 3/12/2008 11:42:00 AM





Arch Coal (ACI)
is the stock on WALLSTRIP

The weekly chart looks like it could be in a good spot to consider new entries on shorter timeframes.


Posted by Brian at 3/12/2008 08:46:00 AM





Tuesday, March 11, 2008Video Stock Market Technical Analysis Review 3/11/08




Looks like Youtube has problems and my upload tool is giving me trouble so it is either Youtube or iTunes.

Always be prepared for anything!


Posted by Brian at 3/11/2008 04:01:00 PM








Posted by Brian at 3/11/2008 03:24:00 PM





Afternoon Strength?
I could see a chance of another test of the declining 5 day moving averages, but primary trend is still lower so be careful.



Posted by Brian at 3/11/2008 01:54:00 PM





Daily VWAP


Posted by Brian at 3/11/2008 11:17:00 AM





Up to the declining 5 DMA
The green line is the premarket highs
The purple VWAP is the average price since the January lows.



Posted by Brian at 3/11/2008 08:52:00 AM










Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

So Much
for the stabilization theory. Once the markets broke below VWAP it has resulted in continued selling. I am not involved.



Posted by Brian at 3/07/2008 01:43:00 PM





Stabilizing
The market is trying to stabilize short term. Longer term, nothing has changed we are in a bear market. Only the most aggressive and disciplined traders should be involved right now. I think the volatility will diminish for a while and I am expecting little in the way of trade opportunities until this afternoon.



Posted by Brian at 3/07/2008 10:56:00 AM





Buyers In Control
of today's action so far. I'm focusing on the long side for now. I don't think the market will fail, but if it does I will reverse course quickly.



Posted by Brian at 3/07/2008 10:44:00 AM





First VWAP Test


Posted by Brian at 3/07/2008 10:12:00 AM





Overnight Weakness
This chart shows the S&P 500 e mini trading since midnight. There should be huge volatility today as unprepared longs puke their positions. I will not consider any buys until the market can recapture VWAP at a minimum.



Posted by Brian at 3/07/2008 09:05:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Posted by Brian at 3/06/2008 04:15:00 PM







Posted by Brian at 3/06/2008 03:04:00 PM





A Break
of short term Resistance could lead to a test of VWAP



Posted by Brian at 3/06/2008 02:48:00 PM





Thursday 30 Minute Charts
The markets continue to hold above the January lows, but the average participant is losing money. Will there be a "giveup stage" if the levee (lows) break?



Posted by Brian at 3/06/2008 12:46:00 PM








Posted by Brian at 3/06/2008 12:33:00 PM





Have You Ever Noticed


what is on the screens on the floor of the NYSE? Charts.

Posted by Brian at 3/06/2008 09:15:00 AM





T Bill Yields
are lower again this morning and stock index futures are trading down as well. The path of least resistance remains lower.



Posted by Brian at 3/06/2008 08:57:00 AM










Newer Posts Older Posts Home