一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

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Posted by Brian at 8/11/2008 03:34:00 PM




Digging Into Short Interest Numbers
From October 15 to July 15, the average price (based on volume or VWAP) shares of PALM traded at was approximately 6.94. Looking at the large short position (over 40 million shares as of July 15) and the fact that the stock is now above 7.20, it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that the stock was a good short squeeze candidate. A closer examination of the short interest data (table below) reveals a different story.



The table below shows the growing short interest in shares of PALM. Here is how to interpret the data. As of Oct 31, the total short position in PALM was 25.6 million shares, that was up 4.9 million shares from October 15. The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) between 10/15 and 10/31 was $12.82, that means we can approximate that close to 5 million shares were shorted at an average price of 12.82, of course we do not know the true price the shorts got involved, but the VWAP gives us a good approximation. For period two, the shorts added another 9.3 million shares at an average price of 8.84.

When we average the two periods (9.3x8.84) + (4.9x12.82)/ 14.2 we find the average price the stock traded while 14.2 million shares were added was 9.79. If you add the 20.7 million shares which were short before the large breakdown in October, you can quickly see that of the 40.8 million share short position, only about 5 million shares (or about 12% of the position may be in a losing position. Without digging past some of the numbers it would be easy to confuse this stock with one where the short sellers may be squeezed. The point here is that, on balance, the short sellers are well positioned in this stock and that makes it less likely that a squeeze rally would develop.

The stock looks interesting from the long side right now, but what do the shorts know about PALM? Short sellers can be very patient and they are often right.



You can learn more about short squeezes and VWAP in my book.

Posted by Brian at 8/11/2008 12:53:00 PM

Labels: short interest




The Trend Remains Strong
and only price pays, but be aware that there is the POTENTIAL for the Qs to encounter resistance at the 61.8% retracement level. It is not a reason to sell short, only a level where the action should be observed more closely for evidence of increased supply which may halt the advance.



Posted by Brian at 8/11/2008 11:13:00 AM










Sunday, August 10, 2008

Stock Trade Ideas for Week of 8/11/08
These are the stocks discussed in yesterday's live event. Do your own research and remember that risk management is job #1. These are just potential trading ideas, not recommendations.

Free autographs from Howard.








Successful Test
of prior resistance acting as support in the Qs. 46.00 remains critical.



Posted by Brian at 8/08/2008 10:52:00 AM






When I race my mind is full of doubts - who will finish second, who will finish third?
~ Noureddine Morceli, Algerian athlete, 1996 Summer Olympic Games

Posted by Brian at 8/08/2008 07:42:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Why I'm A Trader
Stocks are too risky to hold, especially these story stocks.



Posted by Brian at 8/07/2008 12:14:00 PM





Qs Holding Up
just under the declining 50 DMA, stay alert for potential reversals.



Posted by Brian at 8/07/2008 11:15:00 AM






I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.
~Abraham Lincoln

Posted by Brian at 8/07/2008 06:35:00 AM





Wednesday, August 06, 2008Stock Trade in Mindray (MR)
Here is how I traded the setup in Mindray Medical International Limited
(Public, NYSE:MR) earlier today.


Short Squeeze Trade Setup Review in MR from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 08:43:00 PM





Stock Market Video Review 8/6/08


I started writing some TRADER TIPS for the Money Show website, see middle of the page.

Here is a direct link MY STORY

If the video is slow to upload please be patient it is a youtube issue, there is nothing I can do.


Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 04:14:00 PM





China Stocks
If I was a lazy American reporter in Beijing looking to do a business story about a tech company whose shares trade in the US I wouldn't want to travel far, instead I would look at Beijing based companies. It wouldn't take long to find shares of Perfect World Inc (PWRD), a company which designs 3D video games, that would be a good human interest story about the modernization/innovation in China.

If I was a lazy American investor looking to profit from the Olympics hype I would probably buy the stock as I sit on my couch listening to a story about the company. That lazy investor will probably buy his shares from me, I am long now. Anticipate the anticipators. This stock could get going nicely above 28.00. Do your own research and control risk.




Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 02:42:00 PM





Chinese Stocks Review & Market Analysis
Live today HERE at 1PM Eastern. This is a free event, no password required. It will last 30 minutes.

Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 12:23:00 PM





Stock Short Squeeze Developing?
From January 15 to June 13, the short interest in Mindray Medical (MR) rose from 584K to 7.0 Mullion, the aveage price the stock traded during that time was approximately 34.69. With the stock up over 40, not many of those horts are in a winning position and that makes them vulnerable to a squeeze. Looking more closely at the data, you can see that from Jan 31 to Feb 15 the short position swelled from 707k to 4.5 milliion, the average pricce the stock traded during that time was ~35.00. That means approximately 3.8 million shares were shorted near 35, thats gotta hurt. If those shorts begin to aggressively cover this stock could see significant upside. Risk Management is job #1.




Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 11:26:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Why I'm A Trader
Stocks are too risky to hold, especially these story stocks.



Posted by Brian at 8/07/2008 12:14:00 PM





Qs Holding Up
just under the declining 50 DMA, stay alert for potential reversals.



Posted by Brian at 8/07/2008 11:15:00 AM







China Stocks
If I was a lazy American reporter in Beijing looking to do a business story about a tech company whose shares trade in the US I wouldn't want to travel far, instead I would look at Beijing based companies. It wouldn't take long to find shares of Perfect World Inc (PWRD), a company which designs 3D video games, that would be a good human interest story about the modernization/innovation in China.

If I was a lazy American investor looking to profit from the Olympics hype I would probably buy the stock as I sit on my couch listening to a story about the company. That lazy investor will probably buy his shares from me, I am long now. Anticipate the anticipators. This stock could get going nicely above 28.00. Do your own research and control risk.




Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 02:42:00 PM





Chinese Stocks Review & Market Analysis
Live today HERE at 1PM Eastern. This is a free event, no password required. It will last 30 minutes.

Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 12:23:00 PM





Stock Short Squeeze Developing?
From January 15 to June 13, the short interest in Mindray Medical (MR) rose from 584K to 7.0 Mullion, the aveage price the stock traded during that time was approximately 34.69. With the stock up over 40, not many of those horts are in a winning position and that makes them vulnerable to a squeeze. Looking more closely at the data, you can see that from Jan 31 to Feb 15 the short position swelled from 707k to 4.5 milliion, the average pricce the stock traded during that time was ~35.00. That means approximately 3.8 million shares were shorted near 35, thats gotta hurt. If those shorts begin to aggressively cover this stock could see significant upside. Risk Management is job #1.




Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 11:26:00 AM





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Why I'm A Trader
Stocks are too risky to hold, especially these story stocks.



Posted by Brian at 8/07/2008 12:14:00 PM





Qs Holding Up
just under the declining 50 DMA, stay alert for potential reversals.



Posted by Brian at 8/07/2008 11:15:00 AM







China Stocks
If I was a lazy American reporter in Beijing looking to do a business story about a tech company whose shares trade in the US I wouldn't want to travel far, instead I would look at Beijing based companies. It wouldn't take long to find shares of Perfect World Inc (PWRD), a company which designs 3D video games, that would be a good human interest story about the modernization/innovation in China.

If I was a lazy American investor looking to profit from the Olympics hype I would probably buy the stock as I sit on my couch listening to a story about the company. That lazy investor will probably buy his shares from me, I am long now. Anticipate the anticipators. This stock could get going nicely above 28.00. Do your own research and control risk.






Stock Short Squeeze Developing?
From January 15 to June 13, the short interest in Mindray Medical (MR) rose from 584K to 7.0 Mullion, the aveage price the stock traded during that time was approximately 34.69. With the stock up over 40, not many of those horts are in a winning position and that makes them vulnerable to a squeeze. Looking more closely at the data, you can see that from Jan 31 to Feb 15 the short position swelled from 707k to 4.5 milliion, the average pricce the stock traded during that time was ~35.00. That means approximately 3.8 million shares were shorted near 35, thats gotta hurt. If those shorts begin to aggressively cover this stock could see significant upside. Risk Management is job #1.




Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 11:26:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Wednesday, August 06, 2008Chinese Olympic Stock Trades
Shares of CMED are up big and MR is in the same business. I am long MR stock and calls, I will be trading the stock aggressively and holding the options for a bigger move.





Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 10:24:00 AM






Patience is bitter, but its fruit sweet.
~Rousseau

My friend Gal has been busy upgrading his excellent sites NEWSFLASHR and INSTANTBULL These free sites will be supported by advertising, you can contact him at info@newsflashr if you are interested in advertising.

Here is the free PDF issue of FUTURES & OPTIONS Trader Magazine.

Posted by Brian at 8/06/2008 06:34:00 AM





Tuesday, August 05, 2008Stock Market Video Analysis 8/5/08
If you expect nothing and are prepared for anything you should never be surprised.



Please be patient with the video, it is a youtube problem.


Posted by Brian at 8/05/2008 02:41:00 PM





Bullish Cushion
The SPY bounced from the upward trendline of the last month and is now back to the middle of the recent range. The market seems to have built in a cushion which will be good if the market becomes weak after the Fed decision.



Posted by Brian at 8/05/2008 10:57:00 AM





Rabbit Out of The Hat?

If we can get forecasts right 60% of the time we are doing extraordinarily well.
~Alan Greenspan

Posted by Brian at 8/05/2008 06:15:00 AM





Monday, August 04, 2008Stock Market Video Analysis 8/4/08


Stock Market Video 8/4/08 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 8/04/2008 03:44:00 PM





Squeeze




Posted by Brian at 8/04/2008 02:19:00 PM





Shipping Stocks
are breaking down, below are some of the stocks in the group that we analyzed for potential weakness in last nights broadcast.



Posted by Brian at 8/04/2008 12:19:00 PM





Glad I Held The Calls



Posted by Brian at 8/04/2008 08:47:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Sunday, August 03, 2008The Password
for this evening's broadcast is the last word on page 54 of the book.

Posted by Brian at 8/03/2008 08:16:00 AM





Longer Term View of QQQQ



I do not manage other people's money, but my friend Andrew Horowitz does and he has put together a very impressive VIRTUAL TOUR of an investment program he has put together for aggressive investors. This program just recently started and he has shown excellent performance so far.


If you are not familiar with Andrew's work, you can subscribe to his weekly iTunes show and this is HIS WEBSITE which is packed with tons of thoughtful analysis.

I also don't trade Forex, but if you do, check out Zulutrade they have some interesting systems which seem to be performing well.

Posted by Brian at 8/03/2008 07:00:00 AM





Saturday, August 02, 2008Live Stock Review Sunday 6PM EST
Here is the LINK for the live stock analysis of trading ideas for next week. Tune in at 6PM Eastern on Sunday August 3. I will post the page number of MY BOOK where you can find the password Sunday morning. If you purchase the book before Sunday I will email you the password, just send me a copy of the paypal receipt with a request for the password.

We will be discussing market trends and potential trading ideas that I have found and we will also take a look at some of the stocks you are interested in.

Posted by Brian at 8/02/2008 06:01:00 AM





Friday, August 01, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 8/1/08




Posted by Brian at 8/01/2008 04:14:00 PM






To believe with certainty we must begin by doubting.
~Stanislaus

Posted by Brian at 8/01/2008 06:49:00 AM





Thursday, July 31, 2008Stock Market Trend Analysis 7/31/08

Today I experimented with a free live interactive video/audio/text broadcast of my trading screen and did some live trading as I narrated what I saw. The feedback was very positive and I will continue to occasionally do live broadcasts for people who have purchased MY BOOK The next live broadcast will be at 12:00 Eastern tomorrow (Friday August 1) tomorrows broadcast will be available to anyone, even if you have not purchased the book To participate, click HERE tomorrow at NOON EASTERN. I will keep it live for an undetermined amount of time (today was about an hour).

Still haven't purchased it yet? Here's another carrot... On Sunday August 3 at 6PM Eastern I will conduct a LIVE review of trade candidates for next week as well as explaining how I came up with those candidates. If there is time, I will also look at stocks from participants. To get access to the Sunday broadcast you will be required to provide a password which will be a word from a random page of MY BOOK I will post the clue for the password Sunday morning. Muwaaahaaahaaa!



Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 04:17:00 PM





Afternoon Squeeze?


Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 02:19:00 PM





Qs Holding Up
for now, but SP is weakening and below declining daily VWAP. Breadth is also bearish with 1257 advancing stocks and 1738 declining ones. Defense wins the game.



Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 11:41:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Sunday, August 03, 2008The Password
for this evening's broadcast is the last word on page 54 of the book.

Posted by Brian at 8/03/2008 08:16:00 AM





Longer Term View of QQQQ



I do not manage other people's



Afternoon Squeeze?


Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 02:19:00 PM





Qs Holding Up
for now, but SP is weakening and below declining daily VWAP. Breadth is also bearish with 1257 advancing stocks and 1738 declining ones. Defense wins the game.



Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 11:41:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Thursday, July 31, 2008Don't Forget Your Stops


Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 10:28:00 AM





Is Today The Day?
when the market can rally on "bad news" it often leads to strong moves. Very impressive strength so far.



Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 10:03:00 AM





I Stared At
the August 45 calls in IMCL yesterday but didn't pull the trigger at $2.30. At least I'm not one of the 8.7 million shares short the stock out $19 this morning.



Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 08:11:00 AM






The only way in which one human being can properly attempt to influence another is the encouraging him to think for himself, instead of endeavoring to instil ready-made opinions into his head.
~Sir Leslie Stephen

Posted by Brian at 7/31/2008 06:40:00 AM





Wednesday, July 30, 2008Not All Trades Are Winners
Here's a look at a loser recorded live today.


Losing Stock Trade from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Posted by Brian at 7/30/2008 08:37:00 PM

Labels: losing trade




Technical Analysis Video Trend Analysis 7/30/08




Posted by Brian at 7/30/2008 04:15:00 PM





No Breakout Yet
The low from yesterday afternoon near 45 takes on added significance because it is also the location of the rising 5 day moving average. A break below that level would make any breakout attempt less likely.



Posted by Brian at 7/30/2008 12:17:00 PM





The Qs
are looking ready to break out past resistance.



risky setup, dont forget your stops.

Posted by Brian at 7/30/2008 10:16:00 AM






Action without study is fatal. Study without action is futile.
~Mary Beard

Posted by Brian at 7/30/2008 06:52:00 AM





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hefeiddd

SPY Resistance?
The market has returned to the scene of yesterday's breakdown and now that level near 125 has the POTENTIAL to act as reistance. If you are looking to get short, wait for price confirmation before you sell, the market is comfortably above the daily VWAP at this point and odds do not favor a short sale yet.



Posted by Brian at 7/29/2008 10:44:00 AM





Last Week
I outlined a POTENTIAL SQUEEZE PLAY for the stock below. Today the short term trend came into alignment with the longer term trend and gave us a reason to buy. Let's see if the shorts find it too painful to stay with a losing position and start to repurchase their shares. Stops should go a few pennies below the low of the day.




Posted by Brian at 7/29/2008 10:20:00 AM






Teach the young people how to think, not what to think.
~Sidney Sugarman

My friend Darin has this down. Check out his "Montessori Rap" video.


Posted by Brian at 7/29/2008 07:40:00 AM





Careful Here
The SPY is trading down to key short term support between 124.75-124.90 and breaking below that level could lead to a quick and sharp move lower.



Posted by Brian at 7/28/2008 11:17:00 AM





Short Selling Limitations
Short-sellers to suffer further setback. Wall Street watchers believe the SEC will extend its short-selling limits beyond the current 19 companies now covered before Tuesday's expiration. An extension could be for 60 days or more, and could incorporate insurance, housing-industry and more financial stocks - or perhaps even be extended to all stocks. Until Friday, an extension was considered unlikely. Broadening the restrictions to all stocks would require an extensive implementation delay, and could be costly to comply with - especially for smaller firms.

From SEEKING ALPHA

Posted by Brian at 7/28/2008 08:50:00 AM






When two men in business always agree, one of them is unnecessary.
~William Wrigley Jr., 1861-1932

Posted by Brian at 7/28/2008 07:27:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Sunday, July 27, 2008Stocks To Watch
Below are some of the stocks which look poised for further trend continuation in the week ahead. We are in the middle of earnings season which means you need to be aware of the earnings release dates for the stocks you trade so you can avoid getting blindsided by earings related volatility. Make these ideas yours with the concepts of trend alignment and remember that defense wins the game. Do not get locked into a belief about what you think a stock should do, learn to listen to its message and take losses quickly.

I uploaded an additional six stocks to watch for the long side to the bonus tab of the book website. All of the six stocks have a large short position relative to average daily volume. Four of the stocks have reported earnings, 3 were better than expected, 1 was inline and I provided the date of release for the other two stocks.

LONG WATCH


SHORT WATCH


Posted by Brian at 7/27/2008 06:52:00 PM





Friday, July 25, 2008Stock Market Trend Video Analysis 7/25/08

If you have time this weekend, sign up for a free trial to INO TV (no credit card required). They have an amazing collection of educational seminars from experts like; Linda Raschke, Larry Williams, JOe DiNapoli, John Bollinger, Gerald Appel and dozens of others. There are hundreds of hours of seminars and many of them include a PDF manual. If you sign up for a year it only costs $100, which is a great deal! Click the banner below to sign up.




Chris Perruna gave me a NICE BOOK REVIEW on HIS SITE today. If you are unfamiliar with his work, he does an excellent job and his is one of the few that I regularly view.



Posted by Brian at 7/25/2008 02:56:00 PM

Labels: book review




Potential Short Squeeze
I just uploaded a video for a potential short squeeze in the stock below. This profitable company recently reported earnings and raised guidance for the year, revenues for the quarter were up 54%. The shorts have been battling the stock and added 3.6 million shares to their bearish bet between April 15 and July 15, leaving a short position of just over 8 million shares. I own a small amount of the stock and will add above the level outlined in the video. Go to the bonus tab at THE BOOK website to find out the name of this company. Login with the username and password on pg 184 of the book. Remember to use lower case.



Posted by Brian at 7/25/2008 10:31:00 AM










Bonus Tab

I just exited the final shares of a trade in NABI which was initiated yesterday. I recorded the trade and explain; the trend alignment setup, short interest, the use of discretionary orders, holding reserve volume and the use of Level 2 in the two videos which have just been uploaded to the bonus tab for those who have purchased the book. Remember to login with lower case letters.



Posted by Brian at 7/23/2008 11:56:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Wednesday, July 23, 2008Resistance at 46.00
in the Qs held again, but the market was extended when it got there. Now we will see if the consolidation above VWAP will be enough to refresh the market for a push up through 46.



Posted by Brian at 7/23/2008 11:12:00 AM






What we anticipate seldom occurs; what we least expected generally happens.
~Benjamin Disraeli (1804 - 1881)

Posted by Brian at 7/23/2008 04:59:00 AM





Tuesday, July 22, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 7/22/08




Posted by Brian at 7/22/2008 03:59:00 PM






We believe that to err is human. To blame it on someone else is politics.
~Hubert H. Humphrey

Posted by Brian at 7/22/2008 08:08:00 AM





Monday, July 21, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 7/21/08




Hey Brian,
I would have to agree with other postings as the
purchase of your book was definitely the best $80 I've
ever spent. I've read tons of other books on trading
from many other great authors. However, your approach
to market structure has given me more clarity and
insight than all others combined. Thank you for
taking the time to write this book and for your
nightly videoS. Both have given me some degree of
confidence in trading this volatile market.
Thanks again,
Michael C

Hello Brain,
i bought your book and i think its terrific. I read 2 other books on technical analysis and i think they cant compare with yours. Great job.
Blaz from Slovenia

Posted by Brian at 7/21/2008 04:15:00 PM






Labels: book review, customer feedback


News & Surprises Follow Trend
The only thing that pays is price. Not sure why I looked at this one but the stock lost more than 50% of its value over the last week with no apparent news story. Then after the close last night, the company reported then "news" below. It looks shady to me, Wall Street is crooked in a lot of areas. The point here is to trade what you see, not what you think should happen. This market is too schizo for me, I cannot get my head into it. Back with a review after the close.







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hefeiddd

SPY & QQQQ Trends
The markets are holding onto yesterdays gains and doing battle with the downtrend lines from the last 2 weeks. It is encouraging to see the 5 day MAs have flattened out and that there are 2 advancers for each decliner today. The primay trend remains lower but the short term timeframes continue to heal. 44.50 looks important for the Qs to hold above and 123.50 is an important level for SPY.



Posted by Brian at 7/17/2008 01:05:00 PM






I will not allow yesterday's success to lull me into today's complacency, for this is the great foundation of failure.

~Og Mandino

Posted by Brian at 7/17/2008 08:51:00 AM





Wednesday, July 16, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 7/16/08




Brian
Just finished your book, and all I can say is WOW!!! I was a market maker on the CBOE for several years, and all I can say is I wish I had read a book like that 20 years ago my career would have been a little less frustrating. Thanks again for all your hard work and sharing with others.
Richard R

Hi Brian,
I was very impressed with your book "Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes” and I read it with great enthusiasm. Your book is not overly technical or complicated and the methods taught are extremely sound and brilliant.
Your book provided me with the psychology behind the charts and clearly explained the market forces that affect the up and down swing of stock prices. You clearly explain the quirks of supply and demand with great intelligence, sensibility, understanding and most important simplicity.
I cannot praise you enough for teaching me to become a more disciplined trader, to keep my losses small and to focus on trading only with the major long term trend. I have confidently learned to recognize the trend and to wait to get in at the precise time long or short. I made $880.00 today using the lessons I learn from your book. It more than paid for itself in one trade.
In my opinion, "Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes," is a “MUST READ” for anyone determined to consistently make money in the markets.
Thanks again Brian keep up the great work!
Peter

Posted by Brian at 7/16/2008 03:30:00 PM

Labels: book review, customer feedback




Qs Taking The Lead
The SPy is not quite as bullish looking but the short term momentum is clearly higher which is making an excellent long trade environment...for now. Risk management is job #1



Posted by Brian at 7/16/2008 01:26:00 PM





Higher Lows


Posted by Brian at 7/16/2008 11:14:00 AM






Success or failure in business is caused more by mental attitude even than by mental capacities.

~Walter Dill Scott

Posted by Brian at 7/16/2008 08:49:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Tuesday, July 15, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 7/15/08

Bought the book and loved it. Before now I've never really understood how to set reasonable stops that wouldn't leave me broke. It also helped me to understand how and why you would want to buy on strength rather than try to take advantage of a pullback, something that has caused me endless difficulty. Thanks so much for making your knowledge available to all of us.
Kitzel H

Hey.. I love your book, great info.
Jeremy V

Hello Brian,

First of all, let me say I really enjoyed the book. I appreciate your generosity in sharing what years of experience in the markets has taught you. I am sure that reading your book will affect my bottom line positively.
Thank you.
Jonathan



Posted by Brian at 7/15/2008 03:43:00 PM

Labels: book review, customer feedback




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hefeiddd

Tuesday, July 15, 2008Impressive but Not Convincing


Posted by Brian at 7/15/2008 01:45:00 PM





OIL (USO) Daily Chart
USO found support along the rising trendline and, like any other technical tool, the more times it is tested, the weaker it becomes. This is also the fourth test of the trendline which is often the one which proves fatal to the trend. I would not suggest selling USO short, but I would be more careful with oil longs. If the trendline were to break it would not necessarily indicate a reversal, instead it only suggests a slowing of momentum until we see a pattern of lower highs and higher lows.



Posted by Brian at 7/15/2008 11:43:00 AM





Attempting a Turn?

The strong sell off in oil seems to be providing some temporary relief for equities and buyers are back with heavy volume which could support a short term turn. The trends are still clearly lower and it will take more strength above former levels of support to confirm a turn. Risks remain high, be careful.

Posted by Brian at 7/15/2008 11:16:00 AM





Scalp Trade Video
I recorded an opening trade to the long side in ABT. The video of the trade with my reasons for buying and selling can be found under the bonus tab at the book website.



Posted by Brian at 7/15/2008 10:02:00 AM






When dealing with people, let us remember we are not dealing with creatures of logic. We are dealing with creatures of emotion, creatures bustling with prejudices and motivated by pride and vanity.

~Dale Carnegie

Posted by Brian at 7/15/2008 08:50:00 AM

Labels: quotes




Monday, July 14, 2008Stock Market Technical Analysis Trend Review 7/14/08

Be sure to check out Andrew Horowitz's INTERVIEW with Brett Steenbarger. Thanks for the book plug too, Andrew!




Just got it. Thank you very much
for "not" putting it into "computer dweb"
"squint size" fonts. It never ceases to
amaze me that with all the use of computers
people will put out books, pamphlets, articles, etc.
in small fonts dictated by some computer person
as detailed above. Obviously, you did not and
additionally you put it in a nice size, one up
from what is usually the standard of 5 x8 or
thereabouts. You made it real convenient to learn. Thanks
Brian, sorry to have not gotten to Ontario this
weekend but had other stuff to do and anyway
I wanted to have read your book before meeting
you. Again, thanks, dan z

Hi Brian-Your book is over the top great. It brings to mind the saying "...give a man a fish and he eats for a day, but teach him how to fish, and he eats for a lifetime."
If someone has a bit of capital and the good sense to follow the disciplines that you lay out in such an incredibly concise manner, they will quite literally
thrive in the market.
Please allow me to express deep gratitude for what is essentially a remarkable gift....not only the book but, just as importantly, your generosity of spirit.
Best wishes,
Robert J

Posted by Brian at 7/14/2008 03:51:00 PM

Labels: book review, customer feedback




Sunday, July 13, 2008Earnings Season
begins this week and with options expiration on Friday it is almost certain to continue to be a very volatile trading environment. The charts below are of some of the more interesting (influential) companies due to report this week. Remember that news and surprises tend to follow the direction of the trend, but speculating on earnings reports is a very risky bet. It is not your interpretation of the headline which matters, but the market reaction to it. It is interesting that ABT and JNJ look setup for a break to highs not seen in at least the last 10 years. The only way I would consider playing any of these stocks before earnings is with options. The release day and time comes from www.briefing.com.



Posted by Brian at 7/13/2008 08:25:00 PM





Friday, July 11, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 7/11/08





I counted my books on options and technical analysis this PM – I have 37 of them (ranging from classics to a whole bunch of new ones). I can honestly say, after finishing your book this PM, it is by far the best book I own. Just a fantastic job…..way to go.
I loved everything about it. I especially liked the last chapter that showed how you tackle this business. I only wish there was more specific examples. As we talked in Vegas, I hope you start a paid service soon that shows your subscribers more detailed trades (some intraday).
It is going to take years for people to get to your level of understanding….. There is a lot to learn via school of hard knox, but we can only go through this journey one step at a time…….
Thanks again…..the best $80 I ever spent
Frank F

Brian,
I want to thank you for writing such an easy to read, no fluff, eye opening book on technical analysis. In reviewing my trade journal and charts, I was an “amateur” technician but I’ve already implemented changes to make me a better trader thanks to you. I’ve been full time trading for two years and my only trading education was taught through Investools which gave me a good overall basis but as a swing trader I was taught on the daily charts only. In so many trades I was whipsawed and gave back all kinds of profit where too many trades turned into losses by basing my exits on the daily chart only. Your trend alignment and executing on the shorter term timeframe was one of those “Aahha” moments. I’ve always felt close to being a really good trader, I followed my rules, had a plan, stuck to my stops etc. Your book was the final and biggest piece to the puzzle for me on why I wasn’t doing better.
By the way, the font size, color charts and book binding were great as well. The book would lay flat as I took notes, seems minor but it made it easier.
Of course, thanks for your work on the blog as well. Many “successful” traders (I think) I had previously followed always made a point by bragging about this or that trade which made me feel like a bad trader if I missed a move. I have always appreciated your professionalism.
Sincerely,
Andy T

Posted by Brian at 7/11/2008 04:12:00 PM

Labels: book review, customer feedback




Buyers Back (for now)


Posted by Brian at 7/11/2008 03:03:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Friday, July 11, 2008Qs At Critical Level
They are just below the declining daily VWAP on the one minute chart inset and are testing the prior suport near 44.25-44.30 on the 10 minute timeframe.



Posted by Brian at 7/11/2008 01:35:00 PM





GOLD is Rising
and it looks like it can continue higher from these levels.



One good looking stock is Royal Gold (RGLD) The inset on the daily chart shows the action of the last 10 days and buyers seem to have taken back control of the short term trend, the stock looks like it may break out on the daily timeframe.


Posted by Brian at 7/11/2008 09:15:00 AM






Labels: book review

Downtrend Intact
Back from a refreshing week off and I am very unmotivated by this market. Is that a possible inverse H&S pattern on the 30 min timeframe for the Qs? Looks like one setting up, but the primary trend is still lower and the volume is falling off on this rally attempt of the last few hours. I see no reason to take a strong opinion either way, but the larger timeframes take precedence during times of uncertainty and they are clearly lower. I will post a video after the close.



Posted by Brian at 7/10/2008 02:03:00 PM





Tuesday, July 08, 2008
I will be back on Thursday.

Posted by Brian at 7/08/2008 08:36:00 AM





Wednesday, July 02, 2008CHASE THE GAP, OR WAIT FOR VWAP?
So you did your nightly research and found what look like some great potential movers for the next day of trading. The next morning you are anxious to take advantage of all the great setups but you look at your stocks and see that some of your strongest trading candidates are gapping higher. We’ve all had this happen and the temptation to chase price higher can seduce even the most disciplined trader to lose his cool and pay up for the stock. Although there is always the exception to the rule, it is usually a suckers bet to purchase the stock as it gaps up.

I’m not a quantitative analyst who studies how often certain stocks will continue higher, close their gaps or fail altogether. I am a trend trader who likes to trade in the direction of the momentum if it is backed up by a trend from a longer timeframe. But there are guidelines to when I purchase these stocks. The best way I can show you how I like to treat these scenarios is to go through some real life examples. Two weeks I identified some stocks which looked to be good trend continuation candidates, included in the list were shares of China Bak Battery (CBAK) and Beacon Power Corp (BCON). Below is a look at multiple timeframes for these two stocks to see how I like to enter stocks which experience a gap in the anticipated direction of my trade in a disciplined manner.

EXAMPLE #1 CHINA BAK BATTERY (CBAK)

The daily chart of CBAK shows a stock which recently cleared a six month level of resistance near 4.75 (also the location of the 200 day MA) on a surge in volume. The stock held the gains nicely and with a rising 10, 20 and 50 DMA, it looked poised to continue higher.


The 10 minute chart of CBAK shows buyers becoming slightly more aggressive with the higher lows as the stock holds above the rising 5DMA. The short term resistance level at 5.08 has prevented the stock from making a higher high. Purchasing above that level would allow for a low risk momentum entry with a stop just below 4.95.


Shares of CBAK opened at approximately 5.20 on Monday morning, with a stop level just below 5.00, the perceived risks have now more than doubled which makes chasing it higher out of the question. You can see the gap higher quickly failed and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP, represented by the dotted moving average) was steadily declining up until about noon eastern. Late in the day, the stock finally managed to take out the high made just before noon at approximately 5.14.. This is the point where buyers were back in control of the trend as the average price was now lower than current levels, this is where I purchased the stock. You can see that once the buyers regained control for the day the stock surged higher. At this point, the daily, 10 minute and 1 minute timeframes were “aligned” which makes the stock a good candidate for continued higher prices.

EXAMPLE # 2 BECAON POWER CORP (BCON)


Shares of BCON have shown an excellent pattern of large volume rallies followed by low volume consolidations. The first price surge found support just above the rising 10 day MA, while the current pullback shows the stock stabilizing above the rising 20 day MA.




The 10 minute timeframe for BCON shows that the short term downtrend seems to have run its course. Purchasing during the neutral period between June 10 and June 13 offers a momentum based trader no edge as the buyers begin to gradually wrestle control from sellers. A move back above 1.80 puts the buyers firmly back in control.



Here we see the 1 minute chart for BCON. On Monday morning, the stock opened at 1.84, which was above the desired entry at 1.80. I decided to watch the stock to see if it would experience a small pullback. The stock did pullback, but I did not purchase on weakness because you can never be sure if the stock will continue to grind lower and leave you with a losing position. Instead, I monitored the stock closely and waited for buyers to take control of the trend again, as the stock crossed back above the daily VWAP I purchased at 1.84. You may be thinking I didn’t do any better than those who bought the stock on the open, but there is a big difference. I allowed the natural profit taking to occur and the waited for buyers to regain control so I could purchase when there was momentum. You see, there are two forms of risk in the market; price and time. Why let the stock pullback and hope the buyers will re-emerge? Why wait for the buyers to show up? Instead the better bet is to wait for evidence the buyers have retaken control ant to then buy on strength just as the stock regains its momentum.





MACD/ Price Divergence
is showing on the 60 minute timeframes. These divergences often come before a turn in trend. They are just one piece of a complicated puzzle, not enough to trade on, but it does suggest that the short term lows may have been seen for this leg lower. Risks remain HIGH and only price pays, maintiain your discipline and listen to the market.



Posted by Brian at 7/01/2008 02:27:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Tuesday, July 01, 2008Improving
Almost as soon as I posted the last chart, the market found buyers. Trend remains lower though and I remain very cautious.



Posted by Brian at 7/01/2008 02:03:00 PM





Downtrend Intact
Still no reason to buy. If the morning lows give way it could be a very ugly afternoon.



Posted by Brian at 7/01/2008 01:43:00 PM





Rough Open


Posted by Brian at 7/01/2008 08:56:00 AM






To believe with certainty we must begin by doubting.
~Stanislaus

Posted by Brian at 7/01/2008 06:47:00 AM





Monday, June 30, 2008Tim Sykes
reviewed my book and here is an excerpt.

"That’s right, I want you to pick up a copy right the hell now and read in awe as Shannon explains how it’s not just about memorizing chart patterns—anybody who tells you that is a typically useless finance freak—it’s infintely more important to understand how variables, players and emotions align to create shockingly similar, repetitive, and, more importantly, predictable chart patterns."

Read the WHOLE REVIEW and tune in every Friday at 1PM Eastern to Tim's LIVE BROADCAST

Posted by Brian at 6/30/2008 08:37:00 PM

Labels: book review




Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 6/30/08




Posted by Brian at 6/30/2008 04:10:00 PM





Trading Traditional Commodities
A common question I receive is if I am aware of a reputable company which allows electronic trading of the traditional commodities such as Oil, Grains, Meats, Metals, and also Index futures such as S&P's, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell.

At the trade show in Ontario, CA last week I met with Mark Monaco, who is the Head of sales for Prime Investments LLC and also Ehedger, both Introducing Brokers at the Chicago Board of Trade in Chicago, Illinois. I used to work with Mark and know him to be a good man and an excellent trader. Mark showed me his company's trading platform and told me about his company's background of 40 years trading at the CBOT and expertise in trading grains as his company's owners are third generation corn and soybean farmers in Northern Illinois, they not only understand the technicals of trading, but also are very close to the fundamentals. I am convinced that if you are interested in this area of trading for a portion of your capital, you should check them out. Mark can be reached at 312-786-4188. The company caters to SPECULATIVE ACCOUNTS and Commercial AG traders

Posted by Brian at 6/30/2008 03:14:00 PM





Downtrend Intact
but there could be a short term bounce coming in the Qs if the market can push past 45.80. Any bounce trade is high risk and is best left to only the most disciplined traders.



Posted by Brian at 6/30/2008 11:05:00 AM





Sunday, June 29, 2008Bonus Trade Ideas Video
Has been uploaded to the "Bonus" tab on the book website. For the username and password see page 184 of the book. There is a 16 minute video with over a dozen stocks which appear to be setup for trend continuation (higher and lower) for the upcoming week. There is a stock in the same group as ABAT and VLNC which looks like it can catch up to these two winners from last week included in the list.



Posted by Brian at 6/29/2008 04:15:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Textbook Decline


Posted by Brian at 6/26/2008 11:05:00 AM










Bounce
The prior support levels offered no resistance and it appears that the markets have found a short term end to the current leg lower. The trend is still lower and longs are risky for all but the most aggressive (disciplined) traders.



Posted by Brian at 6/24/2008 11:50:00 AM





The Path of Least Resistance
continues to be lower. Markets are getting a little bounce here, let's see if sellers show up at prior support levels.



For an excellent AAPL specific blog check out the work of ZACH BASS

Posted by Brian at 6/24/2008 10:54:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Tuesday, June 17, 2008Six Vulnerable Looking Stocks
I've got my eye on these stocks as potential short candidates if they weaken further. Risk Management is JOB #1. Do your own homework and "make the ideas yours" if you agree.



Posted by Brian at 6/17/2008 11:52:00 AM





Resistance Levels
In the SPY and Qs were tested again and prices have been rejected. Time to be on high alert.



Posted by Brian at 6/17/2008 11:37:00 AM










Short Term Uptrend
remains intact in the Qs and the SPY. There is POTENTIAL for resistance to be found near 4900 in the Qs and between 13700 and 13750 in the SPY.



Posted by Brian at 6/16/2008 11:48:00 AM










Testing Declining 5 DMA



Posted by Brian at 6/13/2008 10:36:00 AM





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hefeiddd

No Edge Here
The Qs are attempting to stabilize near the rising 50 DMA, but the damage done over the last week is severe and it will take more time to heal before trading long the majority of issues makes sense again.

Is an Emotional Attachment To Winning hurting your trading results?



Posted by Brian at 6/12/2008 12:46:00 PM





Wednesday, June 11, 2008Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 6/11/08



I'm not sure what happened, but the audio cut out at approx 4:30. Good thing I have a new headset on the way to me.


Posted by Brian at 6/11/2008 04:09:00 PM





No Bounce
4780 now looks like short term level of resistance in the Qs and 13500 in the SPY, if that level is not taken out it could be an ugly close.



Posted by Brian at 6/11/2008 01:56:00 PM





POTENTIAL Support
Price is clearly lower this morning but the QQQQ has come down to a level where there may be buyers.
50 DMA ~ 47.85
Daily S2 ~ 47.77
Prior support found ~47.75

Remember that the more times support is tested, the more likely it is to fail to hold and any purchases here (other than to cover short sales) are very risky.



Posted by Brian at 6/11/2008 10:40:00 AM





Tuesday, June 10, 2008Stock Market Trend Analysis Video 6/10/08




Last chance if you want your book autographed!


Posted by Brian at 6/10/2008 03:50:00 PM





Treacherous Market
ES- S&P 500 Emini was at 1362.50 at 4:00PM yesterday.

NQ- Nasdaq 100 Emini was at 1982.50 at 4:00 PM yesterday.


Posted by Brian at 6/10/2008 08:48:00 AM





Monday, June 09, 2008In The Mail
Thanks to everyone who has ordered and for those who haven't, you have until Wednesday at noon eastern to get your autographed copy sent out in time for Father's day. All U.S. orders received before noon Wednesday June 11, 2008 will be shipped priority (2-3 day mail).



Posted by Brian at 6/09/2008 08:30:00 PM





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hefeiddd

Volume Expansion
as the downtrend resumes.



Posted by Brian at 6/09/2008 01:56:00 PM





Support Broken
tends to act as resistance. The rally we are seeing in the SPY is occurring on diminishing volume which indicates buyers are not very aggressive and the market remains vulnerable to further downside.



Posted by Brian at 6/09/2008 12:01:00 PM





Oversold
Is a word that a lot of people mention when the market drops quickly, it is a term that has come to mean "down so much it has to bounce". Of course that statement is only based on opinion which doesn't help us very much. The market was deeply wounded on Friday and the futures are indicating an early bounce, how far a bounce takes the market is anyones guess, but the most likely level of resistance will be found between 137.00 and 137.50. I am skeptical that a rally will develop into anything more than a bounce, but I will trade what I observe and go slow. A strong defense is critical during uncertain times.



Posted by Brian at 6/09/2008 08:03:00 AM










CHOPPY
Seems like a lot of people are trapped and reconsidering recent positions. Too choppy for me, I'm taking off early today. Risk Management is JOB#1



Posted by Brian at 6/06/2008 11:17:00 AM










Support At 50DMA
The SPY has found support at the rising 50 day moving average and now longs can breathe a little easier again. The 30 minute timeframe below shows a higher high which is preceded by a higher low, this is bullish.



Posted by Brian at 6/05/2008 10:15:00 AM





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hefeiddd

Thursday, June 05, 200810 Stocks To Watch Today
Below are 10 stocks I will be watching for potential trades. There are 2 potential short plays (CINF & PWRD) and 8 potential longs. The numbers written in on the chart are levels where I have set alerts on my trading system, they are not necessarily buy or sell levles. I set alerts to ensure I don't miss an opportunity as the stock gains momentum. If I trade any of these stocks I will most likely buy on strength and sell short on weakness, I like to enter as momentum builds from a critical level. I will often sell a small piece of a position if it moves as little as 20-30 cents very quickly and then continue to hold remaining shares for more strength. These are not recommendations, just some ideas which appear to be ready for movement. I know nothing about the fundamentals for many of the stocks. My first consideration is RISK MANAGEMENT, it is likely that I will risk no more than 40-50 cents on any of these stocks. If the stock goes past my alert trigger level and then drops more than 40-50 cents please do not email me asking what you should do with the stock if you are still in it. My answer will be that you should not be in it any longer.

BTW, a reader notified me that VVUS reports important clinical trial data next Tuesday June 10, before the market open.



Interested in MORE DETAILS about how I find and trade these stocks?

Posted by Brian at 6/05/2008 08:24:00 AM

Labels: trade




Not Looking Good


Posted by Brian at 6/04/2008 02:51:00 PM











Sunday, June 01, 2008Stocks For the Coming Week
Below are some ideas to look at for trend continuation this week. To see the principles of how I would trade these stocks view last week's video about TREND ALIGNMENT No two people will trade the stocks the same, make them your ideas if they fit with your style and remember that RISK MANAGEMENT IS JOB #1.

If you expect nothing
and are prepared for anything
you will never be surprised.






Posted by Brian at 6/01/2008 08:33:00 PM

Labels: trade ideas




Volatility
in oil is large today as the market experienced a short lived knee jerk rally when inventory information was released. The failure of oil to hold onto gains with "bullish" news shows that profit takers are becoming aggressive and a deeper pullback becomes more likely.



Posted by Brian at 5/29/2008 11:43:00 AM





Uptrends
are defined by higher highs and higher lows. The uptrend on the daily timeframe in Sina Corp (SINA) is now confirmed by the uptrend on the 5 minute chart below. When it comes to taking profits everyone has different styles they are comfortable with, I like to sell into strength and hold partial balances for larger moves. Trend traders should use the very definition of trend for setting stops, which timeframe you decide to base those stops on is up to you. My book shows how to identify trades such as this one and then manage risk and determine where to take profits.



Posted by Brian at 5/29/2008 11:08:00 AM











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