一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Monday, March 13, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture


After gapping up about 8 points, the Nasdaq extended its gains in the first half hour until resistance was hit at 2280 (50 day MA). The rest of the day was spent trying to close the gap. In the end we gained 5 points and carved out a narrow range bar similar to a spinning top on just 1.7 billion volume. The SOX was the weak link and the NWX sector was strong. Sounds familiar. Today's NDX winners were FAST, ATVI, and PTEN.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2006 05:07:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM
Played both sides of BRCM. All trades were successful except the last one which was little more than a scratch. Still the afternoon trade was a real yawn.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2006 04:23:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long BRCM when it took out its pre-market high - sold when target achieved. Shorted on a lower high on the 5 minute chart. Target is retest of $44.00.

Update 10:56 - Covered 50% BRCM at $44.00

Update 12:10 - Around 11:00 FAST tested its rising 10 period EMA on the 5 min. chart and I was able to pick up some shares fpr $44.10. Sold entire position for $44.95.

BRCM still consolidating

Update 12:30 - Covered BRCM $44.32 and went long.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2006 10:36:00 AM 0 comments




Watch List - YHOO, RIMM, ADSK

YHOO

YHOO closed on support dating back to February 2005 and should rally from here.

RIMM

RIMM is trying to break out of a bullish flag formation.

ADSK

ADSK is sitting on notable support. Will it bounce from here or continue to the bottom of the channel?

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/13/2006 01:27:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, March 12, 2006NVDA - Retest of Broken Trendline?


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/12/2006 08:58:00 PM 0 comments




Gearing Up for the Week Ahead
What's in store for the week ahead.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/12/2006 08:27:00 PM 0 comments




BRCM - How to Play the Corrective Phase
BRCM was the worst performer in the NDX Friday and the SOX was the worst tech sector. Looks like we could be in for more profit taking on this name if the current corrective phase continues. The best way to play it is by following the action closely and staying nimble. There will be plenty of opportunities to long and short BRCM as it makes its way to the next support level.

The daily chart highlights support and resistance. Also note that all three lines on the ADX are converging and will resolve themselves in the near-term.



The 60 minute chart is used to plan the next move more closely. Support and resistance lines have been applied as well as short-term trendlines. If we bounce tomorrow, the target is the green highlight between $45-45.50. Also notice that on this timeframe the ADX has resolved itself and supports a bearish move over the near term. Look for the reversal signal on your preferred intraday timeframe.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/12/2006 07:52:00 PM 1 comments




Semiconductors - A Big Drag but Oversold
Semiconductors really helped pull down the Nasdaq last week, but the technicals look oversold and ready to bounce back to resistance.

SOX

SMH

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/12/2006 12:24:00 PM 0 comments




RIMM - Rebuilding the Brand
RIMM announced that it is purchasing a company that will allow Blackberry users to connect with corporate phone systems. It also talked about an upgrade to its software for tighter integration with Lotus, Microsoft and Novell.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/12/2006 11:30:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, March 10, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq carved out a medium range bar in the lower half of yesterday's bearish engulfing candle on lacklustre volume. After breaking yesterday's low in the first half hour of trade, the Nasdaq managed to end the day up a respectable 12 points. However , the story basically remains the same. We continue to make lower highs and lower lows. The only glimmer of hope for a reversal is the positive divergence of the oscillators on the 60 minute chart. Although the SOX was the best perfomer in the morning, it quickly managed to reverse in the afternoon heading south to close the day in the red. The only good thing I say about the SOX is that it is sitting on support and today's narrow body has the potential to be a star. The best performing tech sector was NWX. NDX winners: ISRG, JOYG, and PCAR; losers BRCM, JDSU, MRVL.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/10/2006 05:28:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Friday, March 10, 2006Trade of the Day - YHOO
YHOO was a textbook capitulation play. If you happened to see the chart of YHOO I posted last night, you know that a lot of investors were in a lot of pain with YHOO. Many stops were triggered on the open when YHOO took out yesterday's low. The stock capitulated on high volume and then the buyers stepped in for a quick swing or daytrade.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/10/2006 04:14:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Nice rally off of the opening range low. QQQQs are running into resistance at the $40.80 level. Support at $40.60, followed by $40.50.

I took a long position in YHOO off of a capitulation low. I'll post the chart later. Also long NVDA.

Update 1:06 - Sold NVDA on a trendline break (5 Minute Chart).

Update 3:12 - QQQQs are fading into the close - can't hold support at $40.50

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/10/2006 12:12:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-Market
The employment data is having a positive effect on the futures so far. QQQQ ticking up slightly from yesterday's close.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/10/2006 08:59:00 AM 0 comments




QQQQ - Head and Shoulders Top?

Many are calling the current price pattern on the QQQQ a H&S top. Typically, a H&S top is accompanied by a large surge in volume activity in the left shoulder and another smaller surge as the head forms. The above QQQQ volume bars are not typical of a H&S top as far as I'm concerned. I've added the OBV and CMF to clarify somewhat that there was indeed a volume surge as the pattern developed. If this is a H&S top we should get a sudden and swift drop in price on a break of the neckline accompanied, of course, by a surge in volume.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/10/2006 08:11:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
Friday's employment data - 8:30 a.m.

Courtesy of Briefing.com - Anticipation of tomorrow’s employment data also helped keep the market in check. Economists are expecting a solid report. Given that expectations for Fed policy are well set, this is a time when stronger economic numbers are likely to be interpreted positively by the stock market. However, much focus will be placed on the hourly earnings portion. If the bond market sees that read as inflationary, that market is apt to weigh upon the stock market.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/10/2006 03:34:00 AM 0 comments




Oil and Gas Play - ATPG
I ran a few scans looking for stocks which were playing well despite the weak market. This oil and gas co. was the best I could find. The indicators and oscillators are all very bullish. N.B. - ATPG did report earnings Thursday morning.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/10/2006 02:56:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, March 09, 2006YHOO Update
YHOO looks very bearish, still waiting for a reversal signal to trigger.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 05:59:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq carved out another bearish engulfing pattern on relatively average volume. Most tech sectors ended the day in the red with the worst being the SOX and internet. After gapping up on the open, the Nasdaq ran into gap resistance and rolled over. A weak rally attempt failed midday and we closed on our lows. On the 60 minute view we have a double bottom. Looks like we might be setting up for a test of the February low. The day's biggest losers in the NDX were ATYT, GOOG, and QCOM.

Here is an interesting article from IBD on follow through volume.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 05:05:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - A Couple of Late Day Shorts



I was bullish going into the session and then I was expecting some sort of reversal in the afternoon. Finally I got smart. Good for $0.60 each.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 03:57:00 PM 0 comments




QQQQ - Higher Low in Play
We appear to have made a higher low on the QQQQ's, but it feels somewhat tenuous and fragile. I'm not convinced just yet.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 02:18:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, March 09, 2006Waiting for a Higher Low
As it turns out, this morning's gap up was a great shorting opportunity. I'm looking for a higher low to present itself before I get long. This could happen this afternoon if the QQQQ reverses course before reaching $40.50

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 12:08:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long NVDA - Gap Up - Fibonacci extension target $50.70. Entry $49.00. This one is off to a slow start and I have moved my stop just below breakeven.

Update 10:52 - sold 50% NVDA at breakeven sensing that the market was too weak to move forward, stopped out on the balance.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 10:02:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market Action
SNDK - gapping up after recent weakness. If the opening gap goes unfilled, it will form a bullish island reversal on the daily chart.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 08:18:00 AM 0 comments




Watch List - Long
I'm not going to re-post all of the charts, but last night's networking picks are still on my watchlist. Congrats to those who bought QCOM today. It was a high volume mover and I'm hoping for continuation tomorrow. FFIV retested its trendline today and formed a perfect hammer revervsal bar. JNPR managed to close within its narrow consolidation range and remains bullish.

Good Trading!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 12:52:00 AM 0 comments




Semiconductors - Well Positioned to Move Higher
Most semiconductors have rolled over in the recent corrective phase, however, some names have managed to pullback gracefully and are well positioned to move higher on the next SOX bounce. Here are a few of my favourites and why I like them.

NVDA had a perfect reversal off its lows today and managed to close well above the trendline. The long lower shadow is a strong reversal indicator after the recent weakness. The only concern I have is the lower high, but we will observe closely as price makes it way back up.

GNSS has had an orderly pullback to its breakout trendline and continues to make higher highs. If this support holds, we should be good to resume the uptrend.

Today CYMI carved out a bullish engulfing reversal pattern on higher volume at the 50 day MA support level. Need I say more?

CY continues to make higher highs and higher lows and has yet to breach its trendline. The RSI remains strong. The recent pullback was orderly and on lower volume. This stock could move higher if the SOX picks up any kind of momentum in the coming days.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/09/2006 12:04:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, March 08, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
I have posted the P&F chart to show that the target has changed from 2190 yesterday to 2170 today.
The McClellan oscilliator has a slight uptick to it which may be indicative of a reversal.



After gapping lower some 10 points on the open, the Nasdaq quickly filled the gap and then went lower for most of the morning. After briefly touching 2249, a rally ensued which brought us back to the unchanged line. All of this took place on slightly higher volume than yesterday and at the end of the day we had carved out a a narrow range starlike candle with a long lower shadow and short upper shadow (not quite a hammer). The 60 minute chart has a bullish MACD turn to it and we are still very oversold, so it looks more bullish for tomorrow, notwithstanding any news upsets. The SOX is oversold and looks ready to reverse. Not surprisingly and as discussed here last night, GHA broke its trendline on a closing basis. The Biotech and networking sectors tested their breakout points and rallyed back up. These are still the strongest sectors going forward. The internet sector almost touched its 200 day MA and formed a hammer like candle. The top three names on the Nasdaq today were BIIB, JDSU, and QCOM, the last of which was highlighted in my networking post last night as very bullish.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/08/2006 08:12:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - NVDA
After breaking its trendline in morning trade, NVDA came back to close strong. I was waiting for a higher low on the 5 minute chart to make my entry. However, NVDA moved too quickly so I had to settle for a mini consolidation level to get in at a low risk level. The exit was a clean 62% Fibonacci retracement from yesterday's high to today's low. Sweet! The close on the daily formed a nice hammer with a long lower shadow which bodes well for a reversal of the recent bearish bias.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/08/2006 04:10:00 PM 0 comments




More Blogger Bugs
Unfortunately, I'm too busy to fix them right now.

This afternoon - long PALM, QCOM, and NVDA - Charts later.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/08/2006 03:06:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long BRCM and QCOM

Update 10:04 - Profits booked on 50% of both positions.

Update 10:40 - Shorted FFIV at 64.57 (lower low on the 5 min. chart) and covered as it came into its trendline at 63.15

Keep an eye on PALM and QCOM as they are bullish in a weak market.

Update 10:47 - sold balance of BRCM position.

Update 11:35 - Got a piece of PALM. I've taken profits on all my positions because the market feels very weak. I will get back in at lower prices if a good setup presents itself, but for now I want to hold on to my profits.

So far the QQQQ's have held yesterday's low but I'm watching closely.
Update 11:45- QQQQ's have taken out yesterday's low.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/08/2006 09:54:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market
I'm looking at the QQQQ's 5 minute chart and if the opening range is higher than yesterday's low, we could be in for a rally. On the other hand, if we break yesterday's low, we are still bearish until we find a bottom.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/08/2006 09:27:00 AM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, March 08, 2006NVDA - Trendline Holds
NVDA - 60 minute chart is oversold and could bounce from here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/08/2006 12:08:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, March 07, 2006Networking Strength - JNPR, QCOM and FFIV
This is a 60 min. chart of JNPR. Notice how the consolidation is making its way towrds the accelerated trendline. We should see some action here tomorrow.

QCOM (daily chart) tried to break higher this morning but the negative market bias put a damper on it. Notice the big volume. This is institutional money.


FFIV (daily) has successfully retested its breakout point on a narrow range bar and looks good to move higher from here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/07/2006 11:50:00 PM 0 comments




Tech Sector Review
The GHA (Hardware) has had a nice run, but there's a lot of negative divergence built into the RSI. We shouldn't be surprised if the trendline fails anytime soon.

The GSO (Software) might finally do something here.

Last week INTC and now TXN. Let's get all the bad news out so we can find a bottom soon. Despite closing on its lows, the SOX is sitting on support and closed at the bottom of its narrow channel. Tomorrow should be interesting to say the least.

The NWX ( networking sector) has tested its breakout support and should bounce tomorrow.

The GIN (Internet sector) is still in trouble here and with GOOG's never ending Finance woes continually in the news, it will likely head for the 200 day MA in the coming days.

The NBI (Biotech sector) is coming back to retest its breakout gap support in an orderly fashion.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/07/2006 11:31:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture


The shorter time frame is oversold.

The daily chart shows that we incurred some technical damage on a breach of the 50 day SMA, however, this was done on lower volume so there seems to be a lack of momentum. The 60 minute chart shows that we are deeply oversold after four successive down sessions (also confirmed by the McClellan Oscillator). The P&F chart shows that today's damage reversed the previously bullish direction and we are now in a correction phase which should take us to 2190 ie. close to where we started the year. All tech sectors were in the red today but the SOX was the biggest loser, shedding 15 points or 2.9%. The QQQQ's are lower in after hours due to GOOG's latest blunder (refer to my previous post for more details). The top 10 losers on the Nasdaq include four semis: MRVL, BRCM, SNDK, and ALTR.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/07/2006 07:20:00 PM 0 comments




GOOG - Down AH - 8K Filing

Another CFO Blunder? Here are the notes courtesy of Briefing.com

GOOG Google falls 8 pts in after hours following 8-K filing (364.45 -3.65) -Update-

Co comments that on March 2 it posted its Analyst Day presentations on its Investor Relations website. The initial posting inadvertently contained certain annotated comments not intended to be presented at Analyst Day, including the following statements: "Our ads business for the moment is healthy and growing and we're on a strong trajectory • projected to grow from $6bn this year to $9.5bn next year based purely on trends in traffic and monetization growth. But strong competitors are attempting to aggregate traffic • AdSense margins will be squeezed in 2006 and beyond"; "To really get down to brass tacks, we're going to: Execute well on our core ads projects to help us exceed the $9.5bn target (and backfill any AdSense partner loss) and drive advertiser satisfaction"; and "In terms of estimating [stock-based compensation] charges for 2006, there are two things to consider: • The amount of the charge related to awards issued prior to 2006 AND the new awards that are issued throughout 2006 • The first part, the amount related to grants prior to 2006, is $342 mm" The statements regarding $9.5 billion in 2006 ad revenue and AdSense margins were not speaker notes prepared for the Analyst Day presentation, and were inadvertently included in the Analyst Day slides. These statements were instead speaker notes prepared early in the fourth quarter of 2005 for an internal product strategy presentation. These notes were not created for financial planning purposes, and should not be regarded as financial guidance. Consistent with past practice, Google is not providing revenue guidance. In addition, the statement with respect to AdSense margins does not reflect Google's current expectations. The statements regarding stock-based compensation were also inadvertently included in the Analyst Day slides. However, the statement regarding the stock-based compensation charge of $342 million, which relates to stock awards granted to employees and directors prior to 2006, is a materially accurate reflection of Google's current expectations.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/07/2006 05:48:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
A complete analysis will follow this evening but for now, I just wanted to note that the Nasdaq P&F chart has reversed today and is now targeting a preliminary bearish price target of 2190, almost 80 points from today's close. I will also review technical damage to specific stocks later. Right now it's time to go to the dog run.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/07/2006 04:18:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - NVDA
I only took two trades today. The AAPL trade was a scratch and this trade with NVDA was a low risk setup on a higher low to try and salvage the day. I bought on a pullback to the trendline with a very tight stop in case the trendline did not hold. Good for 80 cents.

The better trade with NVDA would have been the downside break of the narrow channel in the morning but I missed that one.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/07/2006 04:11:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Market is not participating on the long setups but there are some broken trendlines for shorts.

Update 1:12 - AAPL short $65.59

Update 1:20 - AAPL stopped out $65.47 - market may be reversing here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/07/2006 10:37:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, March 06, 2006Well Positioned to Move Higher if Nasdaq Catches a Bounce

BRCM

SNDK

QCOM

AMD

JNPR

All of the above names are well positioned to move higher from these levels if the market participates. These are all 60 minute chart setups and I think you will find them self explanatory.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 11:43:00 PM 0 comments




AMGN - Could Catch a Bounce

AMGN will be coming into some well defined support shortly and could get a bounce as early as tomorrow. Over the near term watch far a higher low to see if AMGN has the potential to reverse its downtrend.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 10:43:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, March 06, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq followed through on Friday's weak tone with a bearish engulfing pattern on relatively high volume. As noted here Friday, the 60 minute chart was a classic rising wedge waiting to break so there was no surprise here today. Most tech sectors ended the session in the red except hardware which formed another doji. The SOX and NWX were the hardest hit but no technical damage was sustained as all sectors remain well within their recent trading ranges. The NBI did, however, break its recent narrow consolidation range on a closing basis. The Nasdaq will likely retest its lower trendline on the 60 minute chart before a further break to the downside occurs. The biggest losers on the day were TLAB, PTEN, and XLNX.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 06:55:00 PM 0 comments




BRCM - Update - H&S Top on 15 Minute Chart
As noted in my 1:32 post, BRCM was a good afternoon short, when the market suddenly felt extremely weak. It broke from a H&S top which had formed on the 15 min. chart over the last three trading days. The support of the 200 period SMA held into the close.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 05:37:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - AMGN
Short AMGN on the open. Judging from the pre-market trading, AMGN was weak and would continue to fall. Keying off of last night's AMGN posting, AMGN briefly observed support in the $74.50 area midday before proceeding lower in the afternoon. I covered in the mid afternoon when the market went through a stabilization period.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 05:19:00 PM 0 comments




BRCM - H&S Top on 15 Minute Chart
Nasdaq weak and it looks like a timely short setup.

Support - rising 200 period SMA, followed by $47.00

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 01:32:00 PM 0 comments




Blogger Problems Again
Unfortunately, I was unable to post due to Google Blogger problems this morning.

The problem seems to be fixed as at 1:14 p.m.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 01:14:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long: WPSC - Extension of Friday's gap up - 50% profit booked at 10:10 reversal time.

Short: AMGN

Update 1:35 - Short BRCM

Update 2:11 - covered 50% at $47.73

Update 2:42 - covered balance BRCM and covered all AMGN

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 10:22:00 AM 0 comments




AMGN - Late Day Selloff
AMGN had a late day selloff on no news that I can find.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 02:22:00 AM 0 comments




AMD - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on High Volume
Friday's news of Intel's lower than expected sales expectations for Q1, put the brakes on semis. AMD, Intel's main competitor, was hit hard. By the end of the trading day it had carved out a bearish engulfing pattern on very high volume. If AMD breaches support at $38.50 on a closing basis, it could signal a pullback to the 50 day MA around $37.00 or back to its bullish gap support at $35.00. Despite this potential setback, AMD is well positioned to retest its recent highs in the near term.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 02:00:00 AM 0 comments




PALM - A Name to Watch Given RIMM's Weak Sales Forecast

PALM is in a good position to move higher on a retest of the breakout point. But given RIMM's weaker than PALM could bounce off of its accelerated trendline on the 60 minute chart. Watch closely tomorrow. If the accelerated trendline is violated go back to the daily chart where we have breakout support at $40.00, followed by the rising trendline around $39.00. The bullish price objective on the P&F chart is $58.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/06/2006 01:02:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, March 05, 2006Internet Sector - Ready for a Bounce
The $GIN Internet sector looks ripe for a bounce here. Gap support has been tested and is holding. Sell on a test of recent bearish gap resistance.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/05/2006 09:54:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Sunday, March 05, 2006YHOO - Positive Divergence of the RSI
YHOO has been declining in a downward sloping channel since its earnings gap down in mid January. We have a positive divergence in the RSI on two consecutive lower lows. The ideal place to buy would be the bottom of the channel as highlighted by the blue circle.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/05/2006 08:49:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, March 03, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture - Part II

Click on chart for larger view.

The Nasdaq gapped lower this morning on news on INTEL's ailing revenue expectations. It then spent much of the day rallying back up to its trendline. The afternoon gave way to intense selling especially in the semi sector. So we have an inverted hammer on higher volume in a weak uptrend. An inverted hammer in a downtrend is usually bullish, so I guess in this case, the converse would be true. We'll find out next week. Although semis were the hardest hit, most tech sectors ended the day in the red, with NWX just hugging the unchanged line. Today's biggest losers in the NDX include: TEVA, ATYT, SNDK and AAPL. Have a look at my earlier post to get a good picture of the rising wedge pattern that is developing on the 60 minute chart.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/03/2006 09:00:00 PM 0 comments




NVDA - Accelerated Trendline In Play

Click on chart for larger view

NVDA has had a nice run this week. I see some weakness in the RSI and MACD on the 60 minute chart above. Careful of a breach of the accelerated trendline.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/03/2006 05:29:00 PM 0 comments




RIMM - Settlement Finally
RIMM and NTP settle for $612 million. I'm sure we will read more about this over the weekend. Stock is halted.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/03/2006 05:06:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
I'll be updating this post later tonight, but for now I'm posting the Nasdaq 60 minute chart. Have a look at the rising wedge that is forming.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/03/2006 04:27:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - PAYX
PAYX was the trade of the day. The chart is self explanatory given that this name was on my watch list. The only question that comes to mind was why I didn't take partial profit when the stock started coming in fast in mid-morning. Good question, simple answer. I wasn't watching at that moment. My stop was just below the 10 period EMA and it held while I was away from my desk. When I finally got back to it, I lowered the stop just under the 20 period EMA as it was consolidating nicely and I wanted to give some room to move higher. It worked out nicely.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/03/2006 04:15:00 PM 0 comments




In Play - PAYX
PAYX Long - Reversal off of the consolidation low over the past few days.

Watching BIDU as it consolidates off of its wide rage opening bar on a break of yesterday afternoon's consolidation high.

Update 1:58 - 50% PAYX profits booked, chart after the close. I think we are hitting resistance here. Tighten the stop.

Update 2:35 - stopped out of the balance of the PAYX position at $40.85

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/03/2006 10:39:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-Market Action
INTC - Q1 revenue below expectations - QQQQ's falling on the news

AMD - After an initial spike lower on the INTC news, AMD has recovered and is now gaining strength.

QQQQ - INTC news is having a very negative impact on QQQQ - initial support $41.20, followed by $41.00

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/03/2006 08:22:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, March 02, 2006Watch List - Long

PAYX and CREE - nice consoldation after big move - could go higher anytime.

CYMI - enough consolidation, let's go

TRID - still strong

AMD - Momentum

LLTC - I like the chart

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 11:09:00 PM 1 comments




AMD - Bullish Break of its Down Trend Line
AMD broke its recent down trend line in late day trade. Keep this one on your watch list for tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 10:39:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, March 02, 2006BRCM - Resistance Levels
BRCM has resistance dating back to 1999 and 2000 just overhead.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 10:16:00 PM 0 comments




Tech Sectors - NWX, NBI, SOX

NWX

Momentum in the NWX sector is building after a one and half month lull. As the sector appoaches the overbought level, we may see some consolidation.

NBI

The biotech sector is consolidating its recent gains. A strong second half of February leaves the sector in an overbought condition.

SOX

After a one month shallow pullback, the SOX was oversold. The first day of March was a big day for the SOX with virtually all of the strong, better known names in the sector recording big one day gains. the SOX is trying to regain its leadership and break through resistance. All indicators and oscillators are giving bullish signals.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 09:39:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

In yesterday's post, I said that today we would have a narrow range day in the top third of yesterday's wide range bar. Well it was closer to the top half, but my prediction was close. So we'll call it a consoldation day on lower volume. The Nasdaq carved out a bullish harami in the top half of yesterday's candle. Now if we can just break resistance on a closing basis, we'll be back in full bull mode. There was no real tech strength today, most sectors stayed pretty close to the unchanged line with hardware and NWX just slightly ahead. Although the full stochastics indicate a somewhat overbought market, I am posting the McClellan oscillator as well to show the contrast of its completely neutral reading. We have a flattening ADX line which could foreshadow a turnaround in momentum. The top three performers on the NDX today were JDSU, PETM, and GRMN. BRCM was the only semi in the top 10.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 08:37:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL - Scalping
Starting with a short scalp and followed by two longs, these intraday scalps were not as clean as the BRCM ones posted below.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 08:31:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM

If BRCM is the Trade of the Day then you know that it wasn't a great trading day.

The first trade was taken on a break of yesterday's and the opening range high. The exit as noted earlier was because price was coming in too quickly. The second entry was on the support of the trendline after some narrow range bars (low risk), The next exit was on a break of the blue accelerated trendline. The next entry was following a higher low off of the pink trendline. I exited when price reached the pivot point. After a choppy couple of hours, I took another trade as price rose from the trendline and crossed the MA. The exit was on the first sign of weakness.

I will post the AAPL trades later this evening along with my regular posts.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 03:59:00 PM 2 comments




BRCM - Update


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 01:32:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL - Intraday
AAPL may be setting up for a bigger move.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 01:24:00 PM 0 comments




In Play - BRCM

Long BRCM

Update 10:26 - sold $48.96 - coming in too fast

Update 11:11 - Today is a good scalping day - I've been concentrating on BRCM and AAPL. It's difficult to post charts and stay nimble at the same time so I will post the charts later.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/02/2006 08:23:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, March 01, 2006AMD - Could be Forming a Bullish Setup

Click on chart for larger view.

AMD was a bit of a laggard in today's SOX rally. It did, however, manage to reclaim its 20 day EMA on the daily chart and it formed a bullish inside day after yesterday's downside break. The chart above is a 15 minute view which shows a potential long setup on a break of the down sloping pink segment.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 11:28:00 PM 0 comments




ENER - Short or Cup and Handle?

Click on chart for larger view.

This is a 60 minute chart of ENER. Yesterday it broke its trendline and fell into the support of its 50 and 200 period MAs on a bullish MA crossover. Today it rejoined its trendline from the opposite side. This is usually a short setup, but if we look closely, it also appears to have formed a bullish cup and handle pattern. If its a true C&H pattern we will look for a high volume break. Resistance is at $52.00, support is in the area of $46.00 - 46.75.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 10:46:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Wednesday, March 01, 2006EBAY - Poised for a Break?

Click on chart for larger view.

From the 15 minute chart of EBAY we can see that a break of the ascending triangle is imminent. Which way will it break? The daily chart leads us to believe it will break to the upside on a higher low. Conversely, the oscillators are pointing down. I'm prepared to play it either way. Support at $39.00 followed closely by $38.00. Resistance is just above at $40.66 and then $42.00.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 09:14:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq barely retraced its gap open before going on to add 33 points on above average (volume 2.2 billion). The SOX led today's rally gaining 4.3%, followed closely by NWX with a 3.9% increase. There was a lot of new money going to work today as institutional investors kept the pace going all day. After the 10:30 reversal there were no pullbacks until the close. These types of trading days usually only occur once or twice a month and tomorrow will likely follow with a narrow range day in the upper 3rd of today's wide range bar. The Nasdaq far outperformed both the SPX and INDU. I think this is the beginning of a tech sector rotation and we should expect some continuation in the days and weeks to come. That is, semis will take back the lead and pull us out of this narrow trading range. Four of the NDX top 10 today were semis: BRCM, MRVL, ALTR, and NVDA.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 08:03:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - ADSK
ADSK was the trade of the day. ADSK was trading higher in pre-market due to positive earnings last night and an upgrade this morning. I did a Fibonacci extension of the previous day's AH low to the pre-market high and established a target price of $41.75 and placed a buy stop order above the pre-market high of $39.74. I took partial profits in the morning on weakness and the balance in the afternoon when it became clear that ADSK could not break higher. Click on chart for larger view.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 04:14:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture - Intraday Update

Click on chart for larger view.

A great day for the Nasdaq which is outperforming the INDU and SPX by almost 2 to 1. It's the first day of the month and this is institutional money in play. We could possibly break resistance by the end of the afternoon if momentum continues. The SOX is getting a big boost here today and this may set the tone for the coming days and weeks.

This is a 15 minute view of the Nasdaq with support and resistance points.

Good Trading!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 12:45:00 PM 0 comments




In Play - JNPR, ADSK, and NVDA
Long: JNPR, ADSK, NVDA

Update 11:45 - 50 % of ADSK and NVDA positions sold

Update 1:40 - 100% of JNPR position sold on a lower high on the 15 min. chart.

Update 3:08 - ADSK - Balance of position sold.

Update 3:46 - NVDA - Balance of position sold.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 09:49:00 AM 0 comments




Watch List - Well Positioned to Move Higher - PAYX, LRCX, JNPR

PAYX

LRCX

JNPR

Click on charts for larger view.

All three of these names are well positioned to move higher in the coming days. I also like NVDA which I have discussed frequently in the past week.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 01:22:00 AM 0 comments




CREE - Relative Strength in a Weak Market

Click on chart for larger view.

CREE had a great day today on relatively high volume despite the weak market. We need to consolidate a little here, but keep this one on your watchlist. Next resistance level is $31.00, followed by $33.00, after which it's blue skys all the way to $40.00

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 3/01/2006 01:05:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, February 28, 2006AMD - Pennant Violated
AMD's pennant flag was violated on a closing basis on relatively high volume. Will former gap support hold tomorrow? This may be a bear trap. We'll have a better indication tomorrow. AMD is trading up about 0.30 in AH.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 11:25:00 PM 0 comments




SIRI - CBS sues Howard Stern and Sirius - Support at $5.00 may be in Jeopardy
SIRI may be in serious trouble if the



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 10:23:00 PM 0 comments




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 07:37:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Tuesday, February 28, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq shed close to 26 points on higher volume thanks, in large part, to GOOG's CFO. So we have a distribution day to end the month. All tech sectors were negatively affected with the big loser being the internet sector. GIN gave back all of its recent gains. Comparatively speaking, the SOX and NWX held up rather well. Let's hope that March gives us more direction than February did.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 06:50:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - AAPL
AAPL was a short when it fell out of its consolidation triangle on high volume. I updated readers along the way in my AAPL - Short postings. Click on the chart for a larger view.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 04:02:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL - Short
AAPL short on break of consolidation triangle on the 5 minute chart. Just tightened stop to $70.05

Update 2:21 - stop tightened to $69.30. AAPL has support in the $68.00-68.30 area

Update 2:54 - Covered 50 % of the position at $68.50. Stop tightened to $69.05

Update 3:26 - Tightened stop to $68. 57

Update 3:31 - Stopped out on balance of the trade. I will post this as the trade of the day later.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 01:57:00 PM 0 comments




GVHR - Update - Big Earnings Disappointment

Click on chart for larger view.

GVHR broke out of a cup and handle pattern on Feb. 17th as per my previous post. Volume never really picked up enough after the break to move price far beyond a $1.00 gain. As mentioned in the original post, earnings were due out today BTB and they missed on both the top and bottom. Here's an updated chart.
References to two previous GVHR posts: Feb. 18th and 22nd.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 01:28:00 PM 0 comments




AMD Testing Pennant Support

Click on chart for larger view.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 12:44:00 PM 0 comments




Is GOOG CFO Bringing the whole Market Down?
Who let this guy out? - Can't control his mouth. Keeps digging himself deeper and deeper. Shorts are in heaven.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 11:04:00 AM 0 comments




In Play - MLNM and JNPR
Update 12:15 I'm keeping an eye on PAYX as it is consolidating yesterday's big move.

Update 12:05 - Sold BOOM $33.99 coming in too fast. Looks like a short.

Update 11:50 - Long BOOM $33.76 - Low risk entry off of the 15 min. chart

Update 10:54 - SNDK - I'm eyeing this one on an orderly pullback to support.

MLNM - Short on the second 15 min. bar. JP Morgan downgrade.

Update 10:20 - MLNM - 1st Fibonacci extension target was $10.25 - covered 50% at $10.33. 2nd Fibonacci target is $10.02. Stop tightened to $10.55

Update 10:40 - MLNM Stopped out on balance of position.

JNPR - Long on second 15 min. bar.

Update 10:30- JNPR enitre position sold on a tightened stop level of $18.25

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 09:56:00 AM 0 comments




Watchlist - NVAX and MLNM


Both NVAX and MLNM are breaking out of nice bases on high volume. NVAX is getting a boost here ahead of the bird flu summit and the China bird flu story.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/28/2006 02:08:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, February 27, 2006NVDA - Finally Gets Some Traction

Last week I said pulling back hard post earnings. Well today, after pulling back shortly after the open, NVDA got a lot of traction. Here is the same 60 miinute chart as last week with new comments in green. I see some consolidation from this move and a little bit of resistance in the $48-49.00 area, but after that we should be able to retest the highs at $52-53.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/27/2006 08:52:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Nice action on the Nasdaq today! After gapping up four points on the open, the Nasdaq continued up for the first half hour and then consolidated for an hour before continuing to climb. Afternoon trade was mostly flat, but overall 20 points were added on a clean break last week's narrow trading range. Volume was higher at 1.7 billion shares which counts as an accumulation day. For the first time since mid January, the ADX line curled up slightly which bodes well for momentum. The NDX outperformed the overall composite by a ratio of 1.3:1.0 which means that some of the bigger names performed really well. SNDK, which I bought in pre-market was the top performing stock in the NDX. NVDA which I will discuss in a later post, was in the top 10. Biotechs and Hardware continue to lead.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/27/2006 07:27:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, February 27, 2006Trade of the Day - SNDK
I chose to get in SNDK before the market open because of the Citigroup upgrade from Hold to BUY and the narrow range bars. I had a good feeling about this one and didn't want to risk chasing it. It worked out perfectly.

GNSS was also a good trade. It pretty much stayed in the range of the pivot points I documented here on Saturday. ROS didn't work out but I managed to sell just 0.02 below my entry price in the last hour.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/27/2006 05:04:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long: GNSS $21.07, SNDK in pre-market $58.89 , ROS $21.30

SNDK - watching 20 day EMA $61.00 for resistance - tight stop

SNDK Update 10:58 a.m. - Sold 50% at 61.28 because the stock made a lower high on the 1 minute chart in the area of resistance of its 20 day ema.

SNDK Update 12:45 p.m. - Keep a tight stop during this consolidation. There's not much in the way of support until $60.00 - $60.50. Current price $61.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/27/2006 10:26:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, February 26, 2006AMD vs. INTC

AMD

AMD is in the process of consolidating its recent gains on lower volume. It's also forming a cup which has been developing over several years. On a break of its pennant formation and on a measured move basis it should be able to retest its all time highs in the near term. The target price on the P&F chart is $49.50. We could see new money coming into the stock this week as institutional buyers traditionally put their money to work at the beginning of the month.

INTC

INTC is sitting on notable support and should get a lift in the short-term, however, its troubles are far from over and the technicals indicate that it has much further to fall. The weekly chart above shows that the current pattern has been building for a very long time. The technical break took place on extremely high volume which is very bearish. The P&F chart clearly shows the break in the triangle pattern and has a preliminary bearish price target of $12.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/26/2006 06:21:00 PM 0 comments




Short Interest
When a stock breaks out to the upside, the early part of the move is often attributable to a short squeeze. Not many financial news sites publish the percent of short interest for individual stocks. Reuters is one of the few that I can find that provides this information with a free membership. In the left side panel under the section "Sentiment" you will find the header "Shares Shorted". If you're interested, check it out here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/26/2006 01:27:00 PM 2 comments




Saturday, February 25, 2006GNSS - Classic Retest of Trendline
After retesting its trendline on the open yesterday, GNSS advanced quickly to its next pivot point ($21.05) in early morning trade. We have a few more pivots to overcome before we can break last week's high as follows: $21.05, $21.50 - 21.75, and, finally $22.00. Resistance levels above $22.00 are clearly marked on the chart above. The chart technicals are still strong and Friday's candle managed to to retrace more than 50% of Thursday's bearish candle so it appears that support will hold and we can look forward to more upside price movement soon.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/25/2006 01:39:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, February 24, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq had another low volume, narrow range trading day. There is little of note to report. The NBI had another great day. Most other tech sectors had narrow gains or losses. The trading range for the entire holiday shortened week was just 37 points. The ADX fell under 10.0 today which supports the lack of movement. Geopolicital concerns and oil prices continue to dominate the headlines. Hopefully, next week will provide more direction.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/24/2006 10:08:00 PM 1 comments




Trade of the Day - NTES
NTES on a pullback to support of the rising 10 period EMA and following an orderly shallow consolidation with narrow range bars.
Sweet!

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/24/2006 04:19:00 PM 0 comments




NTES
After consolidating its pre-market gap up all morning, NTES looks like it is setting up to break out.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/24/2006 12:40:00 PM 0 comments




In Play - GNSS and RMBS


The SOX is attempting to break resistance (blue line), but we need a spike in volume to give it a boost.
Longs: GNSS off of the opening range; RMBS on the pullback.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/24/2006 12:20:00 PM 0 comments




Thursday, February 23, 2006Nice Move on RMBS Today
Tuesday I recommended RMBS for a potential long with a preliminary target of $32.00. Unfortunately, I was a little too early in my call and when it pulled back, I removed it from my long watchlist. Too bad for me. I've plotted the fibonacci retracement levels on this new chart for a potential second long.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/23/2006 10:38:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, February 23, 2006Semiconductors - MRVL May Save Sector from Further Deterioration


The SOX was one of the worst performing tech sectors on the Nasdaq today, giving back most of yesterday's gains. After the close MRVL beat on revenues, earnings and margins and guided higher for Q1 and full year. It also announced a 2 for 1 split. It added about $4.00 from its closing price in AH trade. BRCM also added about one point in sympathy with MRVL. This should give this oversold sector a much needed boost to end the week.
I will be looking closely to see how MRVL opens tomorrow. It will be very important that it not give back the AH gains in tomorrow's trading session like we saw last week with NVDA. My favourites for tomorrow, if the SOX is bullish are BRCM, SNDK, TRID and MXIM. These four names did not give back all of yesterday's gains today, and they are all trading higher in AH except TRID. BRCM appears to be the strongest of the three, but SNDK is deeply oversold, MXIM is sitting on support and TRID is trading into strength. Below is a 15 chart of SNDK. The blue lines are pivot points.




[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/23/2006 09:29:00 PM 0 comments




Trump / Stewart Dispute is a Ploy


The whole Donald / Martha dispute is a ploy devised to draw attention to the Donald's next Apprentice series which is set to debut February 27th and to pump Martha's stock out of the gutter. It's working. Way to go Martha! It helps draw attention away from the $0.09 miss you had on your earnings.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/23/2006 05:27:00 PM 2 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
Another indecisive day for Nasdaq. Most of the action was limited to the upper half of yesterday's range. In the end, we carved out a doji candle with a long upper shadow and a loss of just 4 points. Volume was lower than yesterday so this is not a distribution day. We managed to close just above the December high and we are still sitting above the support of the 20 and 50 MAs.

Take note that the ADX line is now at 10.6 which is an extremely low reading and supports the lack of momentum. Conversely, when the market finally decides where it wants to go - up or down, the move from this low reading will likely be explosive.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/23/2006 04:53:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - SNDK
Took a long position in SNDK on a 38% retracement from yesterday's low to the opening high. It had a nice bounce but no real follow through action in the afternoon. Short into the close to try and get a little more out of this rather frustrating trading day.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/23/2006 04:47:00 PM 0 comments




Update on Feedburner
This is a follow-up to yesterday's post. My feed is now updating in "My Yahoo". The problem seems to have resolved itself.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/23/2006 09:06:00 AM 0 comments




Semiconductors - Update
After gapping lower on the open, the SOX found support at its 50 day SMA and carved out a piercing line reversal pattern. Many of the top names in the sector had similar patterns. As noted on the above chart, the SOX is approaching the oversold level and could see an interim bounce to 540. Some names of note and their corresponding patterns for Wednesday Feb 22nd are: Bullish engulfing: MRVL, AMD, SNDK and LLTC (this last name close to a bullish engulfing). The last two names were on higher volume. CREE carved out a bullish morning star pattern. MCHP, TXN, and KLAC qualify as piercing lines and I really like the volume on MCHP. Other names which were bullish yesterday were MXIM, BRCM and TRID.

N.B. The pullback is still in play as the SOX continues a series of lower highs and lower lows. However, within that context, we will rally towards resistance at key pivot points.

P.S. I'm still very bullish on GNSS which is consolidating its recent gains.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/23/2006 06:55:00 AM 2 comments




Wednesday, February 22, 2006Is JNPR Setting Up to Rally?


JNPR is attempting a rally off of its recent lows. I would be a buyer on a shallow pullback to $17.50, a notable pivot point from its original fall in January. If $17.50 doesn't look like it's going to hold, wait for a retest of $17.00. The target is a return to the apex of the triangle around $19.25.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/22/2006 11:23:00 PM 0 comments




NVDA - Needs Some Traction

NVDA - 60 Minute View

In early morning trade NVDA came back to its trendline and managed a small bounce, however, it lacked traction and fell into a doldrums phase in the afternoon. I'd like to see another pullback to the rising trendline (in line with the 200 period SMA) and a nice rounded bottom so that NVDA can take off with more momentum. I'd also like to see a positive crossover on the ADX.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/22/2006 10:52:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq did a 100% retracement of yesterday's loss on slightly higher volume which indicates accumulation. All of the major tech sectors were positive today. We are still in a stage three consolidation and it is difficult to predict when and how we will break this triangle. The best way to play it is one day at a time until the pattern develops itself and/or we can get a better read on the indicators and oscillators. I am focusing on pivot points as key reversal areas in order to stay positive in this diffcult trading environment.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/22/2006 04:29:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - AAPL
As discussed here yesterday, the 5 minute chart, I took my position after the first bullish signal.

N.B. - Today's close was much more bullish than previously anticipated. We have a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily and a close above the 20 day EMA. Consequently, I'm not looking to short AAPL at this time even though we have notable resistance overhead in the $72.00 area.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/22/2006 04:01:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

GVHR - Update

GVHR failed to follow through on Friday's cup and handle breakout. I had anticipated higher volume after the break when it would show up on 52 week high scans. That certainly was not the case today, however, it did test and hold support at $28.80. The 60 minute chart view shows some potential weakness coming into the RSI and MACD. We'll see how it behaves tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/22/2006 12:13:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, February 21, 2006AAPL and RMBS - Short on Break of Support
From the 60 minute chart above, we can see that AAPL is just hanging on to support. With any luck, it will attempt to rally back up to resistance in the morning, and fall back down in the afternoon, so that we can get two trades out of this name in one day.

RMBS is a potential short on a break of $27.50. Support levels are $26.00, followed by the 50 period SMA, followed by $22.00 as outlined on the above chart.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/21/2006 10:55:00 PM 0 comments




GNSS - Update
As discussed in the Trade of the Day Post, we had a nice continuation move higher with GNSS today. Keep in mind that resistance lies just overhead at $22.50 and again at $23.50.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/21/2006 10:51:00 PM 0 comments




BRCM - Technical Damage
BRCM closed below its tight trading channel for the first time in three weeks. It is currently sitting on the support of its 20 day EMA. However, if it takes out last Tuesday's low it will be vulnerable to a correction back down to its gap support in the $40.00 (post split) area.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/21/2006 10:43:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq is in a stage three consolidation and once again has closed below its 50 day SMA. It is normal during stage three for price to weave in and out of the 50 period SMA. The Nasdaq shed almost 20 points today on lower than average volume. All tech sectors were weak coming out of the three day weekend. The SOX was the weakest sector with some technical damage to specific names which I will cover in my next post. Oil seems to be in control, however, I believe this to be a tenuous situation because inventories keep increasing and don't justify these prices.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/21/2006 10:12:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - GNSS and RIMM
As highlighted in my weekend posts, GNSS was strong and could move higher. As soon as the real body of the first 15 min. bar was taken out, a position was taken. Exit into the close.

RIMM traded up in pre-market but fell nicely into the support of its trendline as the market opened. The first 15 min. bar was weak but formed a hammer which implied a potential reversal. The second bar was also weak but did not take out the low of the first bar so this was an indicationt that the support of the trend line was holding. The third bar was bullish and a position was entered .05 above the real body of the second bar. The entire position was closed as price approached $76.00. I'm not looking for continuation tomorrow as RIMM formed a long upper shadow on the daily chart and looks like it could move lower, or at least consolidate from here.

5:08 p.m. - We had a few good trades this morning with RIMM and GNSS. I will be publishing my regular daily posts later tonight (after 10:00 p.m. EST) as I have some personal business to attend to.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/21/2006 10:08:00 PM 0 comments




ENER - Tops Trading Range in Pre-market
ENER - 15 minute chart shows that the pre-market action has exceeded the top of the recent trading range

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/21/2006 09:11:00 AM 0 comments




Watch List - Short-term Long - RMBS, RIMM
RMBS had a sharp pullback from its January highs and was recently stifled by the resignation of its CFO in early February. However, now it has made a higher low and appears ready to break its February base to the upside. This is a short-term move which will likely result in a lower high notwithstanding any new catalyst. My target is $32.00 - $34.00.

RIMM is a very short-term trade setup in anticipation of Friday's patent dispute verdict. The judge wants this case off of his docket and is unwilling to wait for the patent office which lags behind the court system. This case has high drama and by Friday Feb. 24th we should have some sort of verdict/settlement. In the meantime, RIMM looks well positioned to retest the top of its base.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/21/2006 03:19:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, February 19, 2006Semiconductors for Wireless Communications - QCOM and BRCM

QCOM

The entire QCOM chart is bullish and, everything else being equal, it should break resistance any day now. The P&F chart has a bullish price objective of $61.00. From Friday's close of $48.31 we have a lot of bullish action ahead.

BRCM

BRCM is currently consolidating in a bullish flag formation following a stellar earnings report three weeks ago. It briefly fell out of its consolidation support on an intraday basis on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, however, on a closing basis, the flag support was not violated. For the most part this has been a lower volume consolidation with normal oscillator variations. Friday's low volume price activity formed an inside day closing on its 10 day EMA.
A look at the 60 minute chart, shows that BCRM's price has been weaving in and out of its 50 period SMA which is normal in a stage three consolidation. Violation of the flag support on a closing basis would be a strong signal that BRCM will attempt to close its bullish gap.
N.B. - Part of BRCM's vulnerability here is due to the ongoing QCOM/BRCM patent dispute which got some press again this past week.


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/19/2006 09:43:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Sunday, February 19, 2006Semiconductors- Weakness in Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers
On the heels of a stellar earnings report, AMATand others in the same space came under the influence of volatlity selling or a sell the news type profit taking. This may be short-lived, however, for the time being all indicators and oscillators are negative. Same space names also seeing above average volume declines post AMAT's earnings are NVLS, [url=]KLAC [/url]and LRCX.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/19/2006 09:08:00 PM 0 comments




Semiconductors - Strength in LCD Flat Panel Digital Display Developers - TRID and GNSS
After a one month consolidation following a small gap up, TRID resumed its upward move last week. All indicators and oscillators support continued strength.

GNSS had a powerful bullish move on Friday, taking out both resistance and recapturing its rising 200 day SMA on above average volume. The oscillators and indicators support more upside and the ADX has started to point up from an extremely low level (12.1) which usually foreshadows an increase in momentum.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/19/2006 08:23:00 PM 0 comments




Semiconductors - Consolidation Continues

After testing its 52 week high in late January, the SOX began a period of consolidation. It has since carved out two consecutive lower highs, and after Friday's bearish action, it looks poised to settle back into a slightly lower support area. The next three support areas are the trendline, 50 day SMA, followed by 510.

The P&F chart is still pointing to a 657 bullish price objective at least until price falls below 530.

Within the SOX there are pockets of strength as well as sub-sectors of weakness. I will review some specific names and charts in my next post this evening.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/19/2006 11:15:00 AM 0 comments




Saturday, February 18, 2006Cup and Handle Breakout - GVHR
Click on chart for larger view.
GVHR broke out of a cup and handle pattern on Friday. On a measured move basis, it could go to $34.00 in the near term which would coincide with its all time high back in April 1998. Resistance levels to be aware of are $30.70 and $33.50. The ADX momentum line is rising nicely and supports further upside movement.

N.B. - The next earnings release is scheduled for Tues. Feb, 28th before the market open.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/18/2006 09:49:00 AM 2 comments




Friday, February 17, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture


As expected and as discussed in this post yesterday, we needed to consolidate some of the recent gains. The Nasdaq shed 12 points on moderate volume. The session closed just above the support of the December high, not bad for an expiration day. New highs outnumbered new lows by a ratio of 94:5. The worst tech sector on the day was the $SOX with a loss of almost 2%. The stongest sector was the internet sector, which as noted here a few days ago, was due for a bounce.

According to the Nasdaq P&F chart above, yesterday's action resulted in a double top breakout with a preliminary bullish target of 2400. From today's close of 2282, we have some bullish action ahead of us.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/17/2006 04:29:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - LRCX
Yesterday LRCX carved out a bearish engulfing reversal pattern on the daily. The stock opened weak and so I looked for an opportunity to go short. Applying Trader X's methodolgy, I analyzed the 15 minute bars as follows:
1st bar - weak open but we had a long hammer like tail which could signal a reversal;
2nd bar - spinning top - indecision;
3rd bar - takes out the low of the previous bar so I decided to short on the fourth bar. The stop was initially set above the second bar. During lunch as it began to consolidate, I tightened the stop to just above the high of the 10th bar. I covered into the close.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/17/2006 03:53:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-market Action
Courtesy of Briefing.com:

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: NVDA +8.7% (up in sympathy: ATYT +1.7%), DITC +13% (also First Albany upgrade), RRGB +7.5%, BRCD +7%, BTUI +7%, IMAX +6% (guidance only), APPX +4.4%, AEIS +3.8% (also Needham uprgade)... Other News: HEB +17% (extends recent momentum), KSE +7.8% (NY Times says co is up for sale), DRRX +5.2% (receives special protocol assessment and commences Phase III), PTRY +3.9% (completes acquisition of 39 food stops), CYTC +3.6%, TRID +2.2%, GM +2.3% (WSJ article on GMAC negotiations), UAUA +1.7% (Pru upgrade), ENER +1.8% (stabilizes some after 12 pt drop in last month)... Mad Money mentions: RDY +5.3%, MDR +4.5%... Oil & Gas stocks are strong are higher crude prices: NGS +5.5%, RTP +2.5%, VLO +2.2%, CHK +1.7%... Gold stocks are strong as gold prices rally: AAUK +3.7%, GFI +3.2%.

A lot of big names gapping down this morning.

Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: DELL -2.5% (also BofA downgrade; down in sympathy: AMD -4.5%, INTC -1.8%), RSH -9%, SIMG -8.2%, INTU -4.7%, ADBL -4.5% (also Piper downgrade), ARBX -4.5%, SIRI -3.5%, FRO -1.7%... Other News: PXT -65% (increases impact damage from the hurricanes), CYBX -3.1% (AG Edwards downgrade), ATML -2.1%, WLT -2.1% (files shelf registration), CHKR -2% (to be acquired at a discount), ASML -1.5%, MOT -1.1%, AAPL -1%... Under $3: DGIT -11% (reports Q4), SFLK -9%.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/17/2006 09:17:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, February 16, 2006Making the Rounds on the Internet Today
The media is getting a lot of mileage out of this one.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/16/2006 11:53:00 PM 2 comments




Software - Ready to Bounce?
The $GSO rallyed hard into the close today. A look at the daily chart shows that it is oversold and moving up from its trendline. Could be an ideal time to pick up some bargain software names.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/16/2006 10:37:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL Update
Caution: AAPL could be tapped out here. Not a buy at this level and not a short yet.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/16/2006 09:42:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, February 16, 2006CREE and SNDK Review
As outlined here last night, SNDK was a buy on a break of $60.00. It did not play out as well as anticipated, however, today it made a higher low, so it might be a setup for tomorrow depending on how it trades in the pre-market.





As outlined here last night, CREE was a buy on a break of $27.03. CREE was a disappointment, but not a loss.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/16/2006 08:13:00 PM 0 comments




NVDA - After Hours
I was hoping to do some AH trading. I was patiently waiting word on NVDA guidance but shortly before 5:00, I gave in to my restless dog. When we got back from our walk, the move was well underway. Too bad for me, great for investors.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/16/2006 08:02:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture


Another bullish day for the Nasdaq on increased volume. The Nasdaq ran into resistance on the open, broke through it and went up to 2290 by mid-day, only to turn south in early afternoon. By 2:30 it was back to where it started the day, but a strong close saved the day and brought us back to the trendline. All sectors performed well even though the internets are posting a loss for the day. It sure wasn't caused by GOOG, which had a banner day from a flat base breakout, it added 24 points on the day and closed on its high. I discussed the potential for a GOOG breakout here yesterday . Both the biotechs and hardware took out their January highs today. The SOX still has room to move higher. The SOX was a mixed bag today because AMAT and others in that space (KLAC, LRCX) cratered from their high pre-market prices, while NVDA and BRCM did extremely well. Look for some consolidation after this three day bounce. Tomorrow is options expiration which is always a challenge.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/16/2006 05:40:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - Long NVDA / Short AMAT
Nice move on NVDA today in anticipation of earnings. Blue arrows are my entry points and red arrows are my exits. I think it is self explanatory from the trend lines and channel breaks.


I was looking to go long AMAT on a break of the pre-market trading channel. It decided to go the other way. So did I.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/16/2006 05:35:00 PM 0 comments




Pre-market Action
QQQQ's approaching resistance in pre-market.

In Trader Mike's absence, I am posting the Gappers courtesy of Briefing.com:




Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: AMAT +2.7%, OATS +14%, CRYP +11%, NTAP +10%, VTAL +8.7%, QDEL +6.5%, MCEL +6.5%, SNPS +4.6% (also HSBC upgrade), MRVC +4.5%, HPQ +4.2% (also Credit Suisse upgrade), JCP +4.2%, NSTC +4%, ABB +3.3%... Other News: HLTH +12% (to explore strategic alternatives for 2 units), KVHI +10% (announces deal with MSFT), THC +7% (Credit Suisse upgrade), ARDI +6.3% (CFO buys stock, gets patents), AIXG +4.1%, TS +4%, ATYT +3.4% (Merrill upgrade), PTIE +3.3% (receives special protocol assessment), BSX +3.1%, MEDX +2.9% (mentioned in Barron's Online), RMBS +2.3%... Mad Money mentions: CROX +6%, VISG +4.8%, IDNX +4%... Bird flu stocks are higher on news that Kleiner Perkins has formed a bio defense fund; also bird flu more cases in Europe: BCRX +4.7%, AVII +3.6%, GNBT +3.3%... Under $3: VASO +22%, DVW +11% (Kaufman upgrade), MEMY +9.3%, KRY +8.5%.

Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: EXPE -20% (also multiple downgrades; down in sympathy: PCLN -4%), XMSR -9.3% (also director resigns; down in sympathy: SIRI -2.9%), AGP -16% (also CIBC downgrade), DENN -10%, CCRT -5.8%, LF -4.4%, PWEI -4.3%, KGC -3.6%, DCX -2.2%, CECO -1.9% (also Piper downgrade)... Other News: ASTSF -8.4%, EONC -5.3% (profit taking after huge move yesterday), POWI -3.6%, WFII -2.9%, MGPI -2.1%, SIRF -1.8%, IVIL -1.4% (bids likely to come in low, according to sources - Reuters)... Under $3: LOGC -12.5%.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/16/2006 09:08:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, February 15, 2006AMAT Earnings Bullish


Semis Best Positioned to Move Higher - AMAT, MU, TXN, [url=]CREE (refer to earlier post for long setup)[/url], ALTR, AMD, GNSS, KLAC, LRCX, MSCC, NVDA, NVLS, SNDK. Yes, believe it, SNDK looks like a buy on a break of $60.00. Initial target is $61.75.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/15/2006 10:06:00 PM 0 comments




Sutherland Says Jack Bauer Should Die
According to Kiefer Sutherland, in the best interest of the show, Jack Bauer should die when you least expect it. Story here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/15/2006 08:51:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

After a choppy open, the Nasdaq spiked up 15 points in just twenty minutes. The rest of the morning was taken up by a retracement back to yesterday's close and then in the afternoon a rally ensued back to the morning highs. All of this took place on less than average volume. The biotechs were king for a second day straight. Participation was mixed with networking and hardware losing ground in this session. The Nasdaq regained its 50 day SMA and closed just one point shy of the December high.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/15/2006 05:31:00 PM 0 comments




Trade Setup - CREE
CREE is a potential long for tomorrow as my alert was triggered this morning and again into the close but my buy stop order was not reached. Buy above recent consolidation highs of $27.03. Initial resistance is $27.71 and hopefully there will be an attempt to reach for the upper resistance marked by the green line. Set stop below today's afternoon low of $26.81. Good Luck!

N.B. If CREE pulls back to support, this setup is no longer valid. In other words, if CREE has a long way to go to reach $27.03, it could have a false breakout.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/15/2006 04:43:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - AKAM
Buy stop order just above yesterday's high. I got a bad fill at $25.47 but AKAM performed like a classic breakout play complete with retracement of initial break, retest of resistance, and eventual break higher. This name could be in play again tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/15/2006 04:11:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Internet Sector Oversold - GOOG, AMZN, YHOO, BIDU Best Candidates for a Bounce
$GIN should get a bounce somewhere around these two support lines. The best positioned for a bounce is GOOG which is sitting on or near gap support. Today was a very narrow range day for GOOG as it flat lined most of the day. Could be an ideal setup for a bounce. Other names in the sector which are well positioned to move higher if a bounce comes about are AMZN (above $38.60), YHOO which got a bit of a headstart today but has lots of room to move higher, and BIDU in sympathy with GOOG.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/15/2006 02:51:00 AM 0 comments




Tuesday, February 14, 2006AAPL - Long or Short?
AAPL could be in the midst of a short term bounce with a target of $72.00. Click on the 60 minute chart for support and resistance levels as well as the trendlines in play.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/14/2006 07:48:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

After gapping up and chopping around for the first hour, the Nasdaq took off and almost touched its 50 day SMA and closed near its high. Volume was average but higher than yesterday, so this qualifies as an accumulation day. The impetus behind the rally: strong retail sales, and lower oil. Most tech sectors participated in the rally except software and to a lessor extent, the SOX was muted somewhat by the early deterioration of one of its stars - BRCM. Hardware and biotechs led the tech rally with AAPL seeing a nice move on the MacPro announcement this morning.

The 60 minute chart shows a very slight positive RSI divergence on three consecutive lower lows. Also, a bullish MACD crossover looks poised to test the downward sloping trendline.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/14/2006 05:23:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - AAPL
Great day - we needed this.
Traded AAPL on the open as it held support from yesterday afternoon and the curving 50 period SMA on the 5 minute chart. I closed my eyes and prayed for some momentum. My prayers were answered.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/14/2006 04:08:00 PM 0 comments




Canadian Markets
On Monday February 6th, Canada's TSX hit an all time high. Since then it has had 5 consecutive down days.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/14/2006 07:40:00 AM 0 comments




Pre-market Action
GS analysts advise clients to stay away from BRCM due to employee stock options

UBS upgrades AMD from reduce to neutral

N beats by 0.17 - some confusion on Briefing.com re: consensus First Call estimates

NDX futures +5

AAPL begins shipping MacBook Pro with Intel processor

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/14/2006 07:27:00 AM 0 comments




Telecoms Strong - RBAK Benefits

Barron's outlines recent strength in the telecom sector. RBAK, a telecom software provider, is benefitting from this sector strength.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/14/2006 02:57:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, February 13, 2006Semiconductors - Mixed Bag

The $SOX looks like it will consolidate its recent gains as it falls below the January breakout point following a lower high. All indicators support a consolidation or a move lower at this time.

AMD needs to rest and consolidate after its recent gains. All indicators support this and the ADX line has started to curve down which implies that momentum is weakening. We shall soon see if AMD will be trapped in a narrow trading range, or it will fade back to a lower support level.


After a large gap up from a bullish diamond pattern, BRCM has been trading in a narrow trading range for over two weeks. It could be poised to bounce off of the bottom of the trading range in the coming days as recent selling pressure wanes.


MXIM coming into support.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/13/2006 11:35:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture



The Nasdaq shed another 22 points today, half of which came off at the open. Volume was below average at 1.7 billion so the selling pressure seems to be letting up here. It was a very slow morning with some downward movement from 1:00 - 3:00, afterwhich we bounced lightly into the close. Not much to say here except we don't seem to be in any hurry to go anywhere. The ADX line is very low at 14.5, a level it has not seen since mid-March 2005 and which confirms the lack of momentum.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/13/2006 07:58:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, February 13, 2006Trade of the Day - AAPL
AAPL - Scalping all the way - Exhausting work undertaken with small order sizes because today's market was not conducive to good trading.

Also took a position in GRMN as per my watchlist, but it struggled for a small gain.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/13/2006 04:24:00 PM 0 comments




Sunday, February 12, 2006Monday Morning Trading Arsenal of Potential Setups - AMZN, CNTF, GRMN, AAPL

AAPL

Building on Friday's strength, a very bullish reversal off of the mid-morning lows, AAPL looks ready to move to the top of its downward channel in the area of $70.00. AAPL closed at $67.31 and has pivot points at $66.70 and $66.00. A retracement lower than $66.00 would negate the long trade setup.

GRMN

GRMN is building momentum and appears poised to breakout here. Buy on a break of Friday's high. Notice that GRMN held its ground on Friday morning while the rest of the market tanked.

CNTF

CNTF is well positioned to retest its recent highs and in doing so will form a cup and handle. Buy on a break of Friday's high above $18.00.

AMZN

The $GIN ( internet sector index) is sitting on support between two gaps. However, the heavy handed Barron's Google cover story has the potential to bring the whole sector down.

AMZN - Friday afternoon, it looked like AMZN was setting up to breakout of its narrow trading range to the upside. However, as noted above, the Barron's GOOG cover story could bring the whole sector down. Long above $39.00 and, more likely, short below $37.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/12/2006 10:17:00 AM 0 comments




Sounds Like RIMM Management Lacking in Street Smarts

Yet another sad sack story about RIMM which shows that these guys are too nice or lacking in street smarts. Here we have details about how RIMM's Canadian investment brokerage (GMP) turned on them and is now sleeping with the enemy - NTP.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/12/2006 09:44:00 AM 0 comments




Nasdaq Intraday View - The Path of Least Resistance is Still Down
It will be interesting to see if we can break through resistance to get back up above 2300. Note the MACD wants to cross over here. Or, will we tag 2220 and even 2190 first.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/12/2006 09:16:00 AM 0 comments




Friday, February 10, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
After notching a fresh low for the week in early trade, the Nasdaq managed to stage a comeback in the second half of the day. Volume was average at 2.0 billion shares. The best performing tech sectors were the semis and hardware. The NDX performed quite well, with names like AAPL, JNPR, LRCX, DELL, INTC, and even GOOG finally adding some green. The Nasdaq carved out a bullish hammer but closed under both the trendline and the 50 period SMA. Overall, we are down about one point on the week. In general this week has been volatile and, at times, extremely sloppy. I hope that next week's action is a little more orderly.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/10/2006 07:26:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - IIJI
I mentioned IIJI in my previous post in the context of a buy candidate. I had planned a buy order on a break of the pre-market high, but it went the other way. So I changed the plan and went short on a break of the pre-market consolidation range. It worked out very nicely.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/10/2006 04:08:00 PM 2 comments




Pre-market Action
IIJI - very active in the pre-market on the heels of its earnings report. Here are the numbers from Briefing.com.
06:48
IIJI Internet Init Japan reports (10.95 )
Reports Q3 (Dec) net income of 119 bln yen, up from 66 bln yen in yr ago quarter; revenues rose 15.7% year/year to $100.7 mln.

Currently trading between $12.50 - 13.10 with upwards of 600k shares traded since the announcement.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/10/2006 08:44:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, February 09, 2006Watch List - Short

SNDK

The next major support area for SNDK is the top of the gap at $53.00. However, there are some less notable support areas before we get there as indicated by the blue lines just under $60.00 and at $57.50.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 11:22:00 PM 0 comments




Kiefer Sutherland - Better Known as 24's Jack Bauer - Moonlighting
Sometimes you're watching a television commercial and you say to yourself, "That voiceover sounds very famailiar, who is that?". Well lately, Kiefer's voice is in demand by high profile advertisers. That's Kiefer's voice you hear on the new Verizon Business, Apple/Intel, and Ford Fusion TV commercials.

What does this tidbit have to do with trading? Nothing, except that the ads are frequently heard on CNBC.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 10:52:00 PM 0 comments




Watch List - Long

GRMN

GRMN makes me a little crazy. Just when I take it off my watch list, it goes. And as you can see from today's action, when it goes, it really goes. The next level of resistance is $67.30, followed shortly after by $70.00. We have an intraday pivot point around $64.50.

OVTI

Nice break on OVTI today.

Close $27.09
Support $26.00
Resistance $27.84

This name has the potential to go to $30.00 in the near term based on an analysis of the weekly chart resistance levels. There are no pivot points here yet.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 09:58:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Thursday, February 09, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture
Very nice bullish action in the morning, but by mid-afternoon, the bears came back with a vengence. There was no bounce to speak of into the close. Volume of 2.34 billion shares was higher than yesterday so this counts as another distribution day. Most of the tech sectors were down. One exception was the networking sector which notched a new high but formed a doji with a long upper shadow. After closing last week's gap, the Nasdaq carved out a bearish engulfing pattern and even though we are oversold, it looks and feels like we are going lower from here.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 05:52:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - ADSK
ADSK again. That's two days in a row. The entry and exit were exactly as outlined in last night's watch list.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 04:09:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
ADSK - Target achieved to the penny - see my post from last night - position closed.
BRCM - Nice recovery after yesterday's sloppy trade.
CKFR - Break of consolidation resistance just above $52.00. Next resistance level $53.30

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 12:59:00 PM 0 comments




AAPL - Pushing to break $69.00 Resistance
Here is a 15 minute chart of AAPL in pre-market. It will likely push through $69.00 resistance today. But, with the down sloping 200 SMA looming just overhead, I'd like to see a pullback to $68.00 before committing.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 09:06:00 AM 0 comments




BBY - Poised to Take Out All Time Highs
Trading at $53.25 in pre-market. BBY guided Feb. Q higher. The all time high for BBY is $53.19 set in July 2005.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 08:54:00 AM 0 comments




RIMM - Gapping Up on News of Workaround Contingency
Close yesterday $68.65. Currently trading at $71.42 in pre-market. Next level of resistance $73.60 - $75.00. Intraday support $70.00.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 08:21:00 AM 0 comments




MESA - Breaking Out of Consolidation

Next level of resistance is $14.00. Support is $12.30 - 12.50 and yesterday's close was $12.59.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/09/2006 08:09:00 AM 0 comments




Wednesday, February 08, 2006Watch List - Long

ADSK

As highlighted in my watch list from last night, ADSK bounced from a narrow trading range today and has plenty of room to move up from here.

Close 36.58
Support 35.16
Gap Resistance 38.10
Breakout 35.90
Pivot Low 36.24
Pivot High 37.05

The pivot low would be an ideal entry point if ADSK has a shallow pullback in the first hour of trade tomorrow. I traded ADSK today - refer to the Trade of Day post - and I hope to trade it again tomorrow.

CYMI

CYMI has been trading in a narrow trading range since its gap up on earnings last week. It is well positioned to move higher in the coming days.
Close 47.88
Support 46.70
Resistance 50.00
Pivot Point 48.29

MXIM

MXIM, another name on my watch list last night had a nice breakout from a narrow consolidation.


Close 41.68
Support 39.39
Resistance 42.70
Breakout 40.45
Pivot Low 41.11
Pivot High 41.50

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/08/2006 10:34:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq was strong today despite the sloppy morning action. Volume was slightly higher than yesterday at 2.15 billion shares so this qualifies as an accumulation day. The Nasdaq opened some 15 points above yesterday's close and spent the better part of the morning attempting to fill the gap. Afternoon trade was more orderly as many Nasdaq 100 stocks were able to recover some ground from recent losses. Today's action carved out a bullish hammer which managed to close just above the 50 period SMA. Look for some resistance in the 2275 area which is less than 10 points away. Sector strength was found in semis, hardware, and networking on the heels of Cisco's earnings. AAPL did well today and we could see some continuation tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/08/2006 07:01:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - ADSK
ADSK - Automatic buy stop order 5 cents above yesterday's high. I got stopped out too soon or I didn't take some profit off the table when I had the chance. I was too busy scalping AAPL and managing my bad trades such as BRCM. If this is the trade of the day, it goes without saying that this was not a good day for me.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/08/2006 04:09:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Tuesday, February 07, 2006Watch List - Long

OPWV

FAST

BRCM

ADSK

After today's action I am removing GRMN and ZEUS from my watch list. I am adding ADSK, FAST and OPWV. ADSK is due for a bounce here, FAST is trying very hard to move higher and the OPWV chart is compelling as a momentum play.

BRCM looks like it is ready to pop out of its narrow consolidation range and did hit the top of the range in AH trade. CSCO may be a gap up play tomorrow morning depending on how it trades in the pre-market. AAPL looks like it wants to move up here and looks tradable just above $68.00.

The rest of my watch list includes semis: CYMI, MXIM, TRID, MCHP, LRCX, NVDA. Also, CKFR, MESA, EXPD, ESRX.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/07/2006 09:58:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture

The Nasdaq and all of the major U.S. indices had a very bearish session today. Volume was above average at 2.1 billion shares and above yesterday, so this is a distribution day. All of the industry sectors on my quote screen are red except the SOX which squeaked by with a gain of 0.11%. The semis were almost not tradable due to excessive choppiness all day. On a positive note, BRCM traded higher in AH trade by as much as a dollar. CSCO earnings were good so maybe we can have bounce tomorrow for a change.

In the early afternoon the Nasdaq breached the mid-January low, but managed to close above it by 3 points. Both the stochastics and the McClellan oscillator are approaching oversold levels. The ADX line is finally flattening and will likely pick up momentum in the coming days and weeks. Now that we have violated the trendline in earnest, we can acknowledge the bears. On the other hand, maybe this is just a bear trap.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/07/2006 08:09:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - SOHU


SOHU kept me busy all day. I love it when a stock gives two trade opportunities in one day.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/07/2006 04:06:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long SOHU on the open

Update 11:40 - Sold 50% of SOHU at $23.00

Semis are very choppy - scratch on MXIM

Update 1:00 - Stopped out on the balance of SOHU at $22.62

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/07/2006 09:40:00 AM 0 comments




Monday, February 06, 2006AAPL - NYT's Joseph Nocera's Scathing iPod Review
Published on Saturday, the review was entitled "Good Luck With That Broken iPod" and it wasn't pretty. The article argues that Apple is arrogant and that most people don't realize when they purchase an iPod that they are buying a disposable item that is only meant to last 1-2 years. It is a Times Select article so I can't hyperlink it, but here is an excerpt.

"Apple has been willing to alienate a certain percentage of its customer base forever," said Chip Gliedman, a vice president with Forrester Research, the technology research firm. Why? Because Apple is an extraordinarily arrogant company. "Apple thinks it is special," is how Mr. Gliedman put it.
At this particular moment, of course, Apple is special, and it can get away with being arrogant. It has a product that everyone wants, and for which there is no serious competition.
But it seems to me that Apple is on a dangerous course. Yes, it has strong incentives to minimize tech support, but to say "Not Our Problem" whenever an iPod dies is to run the serious risk of losing its customers' loyalty. "I believe that the iPod is one of the most brilliant platforms ever devised," said Larry Keeley, who runs Doblin Inc., an innovation strategy firm. But, he added, he has long predicted that the "maintenance issue," as he called it, would be the product's Achilles' heel. "Consumers are just not conditioned to believe that a $300 or $400 device is disposable." Mr. Keeley, whose daughters all have iPods, has come to believe that their natural life "is just a hair longer than the warranty," and that Apple's level of service is "somewhere between sullen and insulting."
And, he warns, the day will come when the iPod has a major competitor. "There will be competing platforms, and they'll get robust, and other companies will figure out how to crack iTunes," he said. At which point, Apple will reap what it is now sowing.
A final note: You may have noticed there is no Apple spokesman defending the iPod or Apple's customer support in this column. When I called Apple, wanting to know, among other things, how long Apple believes an iPod should last, I got a nice young woman from the P.R. department. She said she'd try to find someone at the company to talk to me. That was on Wednesday.
I'm still waiting.

The New York Times


[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/06/2006 09:40:00 PM 1 comments




Watch List - Well Positioned to Move Higher
This morning I posted eight charts of names well positioned to move higher. The eight included CKFR, AVII which I traded today for nice gains. It also included ESRX, EXPD, GRMN, MESA, MCHP, and ZEUS. MCHP had a nice move off of support, but I missed it. EXPD also opened strong but I couldn't get to it in time. All of these names are still on my watch list with the exception of AVII which closed on weakness.



New names that I am adding to the list include CYMI, which I would buy on a pullback to gap support ($46.80) or on a break of $48.00. The SOX is still showing a lot of strength and may need to consolidate before retesting its highs. My watchlist also includes the leading semis as follows: BRCM, LRCX, NVDA, TRID, and ZRAN. However, for tomorrow I am focusingon CYMI and MXIM both of which have pulled back from their highs. MXIM has just formed a bullish engulfing pattern.



[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/06/2006 07:37:00 PM 0 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq finished the day down by just 3.78 points and seems intent on hanging on to its trendline. Today's lower volume (1.76 billion) action resulted in a small hammer type candle and could signal a reversal or consolidation after three bearish days.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/06/2006 06:02:00 PM 0 comments




Another Long Entry from my List of Names Poised to Move Higher
AVII - Closed on weakness below my entry point so I will not play this name tomorrow.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/06/2006 04:10:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - CKFR
Update 4:21 p.m. - CKFR closed strong (just under my exit price) and will be on my watch list again tomorow.

CKFR was on my list of names poised to go higher posted early this morning.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/06/2006 02:30:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, February 06, 2006Poised to Move Higher









[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/06/2006 01:01:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, February 05, 2006Bull and Bear Warfare - AAPL and ENER


All of last week both AAPL and ENER were engaged in bull vs. bear warfare. In order for the bulls to win, both names have to recapture their short term moving averages. In order for the bears to win, they have to decisively break support. For AAPL a break of $70.25 and for ENER a break of $47.00. In the case of AAPL, the easy money for the bears will be from $70.00 to $62-63.00 and for ENER $47.00 to the support of the rising 50 period SMA around $41.00.
The bearish action for both names took place on relatively lower volume. If the bears takeover AAPL, it could be the start of a significant correction. In ENER's case, the bears will likely only cause a shallow pullback.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/05/2006 11:29:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, February 03, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture



The Nasdaq shed 19 points today, two thirds of which were cropped off of the open because of disappointing job numbers. Volume was moderately high at 2.19 billion. The Nasdaq closed just below its 50 period SMA but did not violate its trendline which has remained intact since mid-October. Today's action resulted in a narrow range bar, maybe a star, which we won't know until Monday. With respect to overbought / oversold conditions we are neutral from both the stochastic and McClellan oscillator readings. The ADX line continues its downward movement and is now around 15 which accounts for the loss of momentum over the last two weeks. The +D and -D have just crossed over in favor of the bears.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/03/2006 05:15:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - WEBX
WEBX was a gap up play similar in style to Trader X and Tale of the Tape. The Fibonacci extension was actually reached in the first five minutes of trade. However, I wasn't fast enough. As luck would have it, WEBX rallied back to the Fibonacci extension and I exited 50% of the position. I was stopped out on the balance around 11:15. When it retraced all the way back to its opening price, I was hoping for a chance to re-enter, but the Friday afternoon doldrums set in and it couldn't break out of its flat base.

The rest of the day was spent scalping with somewhat mixed results.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/03/2006 03:42:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
NDX futures -11 points. Lost 16 points since the jobs data was released.

CESV - Gapping up. Chinese small cap name that still has a lot of room to move in comparison to the other hot Chinese small caps that have had a run of late.

AMZN - Snap back play or short?

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/03/2006 09:08:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, February 02, 2006Watch List

CKFR - Setting up for a test of support

GRMN - Bullish morning star pattern.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 10:48:00 PM 0 comments




Chinese Small Caps
Chinese small cap stocks are really hot right now. Here are few names that caught my eye. These could make for interesting shorts in the coming days/weeks.

P.S. - I just read Trader Mike's Briefing excerpt re: speculative action = top is near. Makes sense.

CHNR

CAAS

CTDC

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 10:00:00 PM 2 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq shed 29 points on moderately high volume (2.2 billion shares - just a touch less than yesterday so this is not a distribution day). The market gapped down on the open and fell sharply between 10:30 and 11:30. It found support at 2277-78 which marks the December high. However, the market was in the doldrums all afternoon and closed just a few points above its lows. After hours earnings by notable names were not compelling so unless tomorrow's jobs report is optimistic, we could be in for more of the same.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 05:53:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM
BRCM kept me busy all day. Very choppy but clean. All of my other trades were stopped out or scratched shortly after the market went deeply into the red.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 04:11:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long BRCM - RS in a very weak market

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 12:59:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

Monday, February 06, 2006Poised to Move Higher









[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/06/2006 01:01:00 AM 0 comments




Sunday, February 05, 2006Bull and Bear Warfare - AAPL and ENER


All of last week both AAPL and ENER were engaged in bull vs. bear warfare. In order for the bulls to win, both names have to recapture their short term moving averages. In order for the bears to win, they have to decisively break support. For AAPL a break of $70.25 and for ENER a break of $47.00. In the case of AAPL, the easy money for the bears will be from $70.00 to $62-63.00 and for ENER $47.00 to the support of the rising 50 period SMA around $41.00.
The bearish action for both names took place on relatively lower volume. If the bears takeover AAPL, it could be the start of a significant correction. In ENER's case, the bears will likely only cause a shallow pullback.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/05/2006 11:29:00 PM 0 comments




Friday, February 03, 2006Nasdaq Technical Picture



The Nasdaq shed 19 points today, two thirds of which were cropped off of the open because of disappointing job numbers. Volume was moderately high at 2.19 billion. The Nasdaq closed just below its 50 period SMA but did not violate its trendline which has remained intact since mid-October. Today's action resulted in a narrow range bar, maybe a star, which we won't know until Monday. With respect to overbought / oversold conditions we are neutral from both the stochastic and McClellan oscillator readings. The ADX line continues its downward movement and is now around 15 which accounts for the loss of momentum over the last two weeks. The +D and -D have just crossed over in favor of the bears.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/03/2006 05:15:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - WEBX
WEBX was a gap up play similar in style Fibonacci extension was actually reached in the first five minutes of trade. However, I wasn't fast enough. As luck would have it, WEBX rallied back to the Fibonacci extension and I exited 50% of the position. I was stopped out on the balance around 11:15. When it retraced all the way back to its opening price, I was hoping for a chance to re-enter, but the Friday afternoon doldrums set in and it couldn't break out of its flat base.

The rest of the day was spent scalping with somewhat mixed results.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/03/2006 03:42:00 PM 0 comments




Morning Watch List
NDX futures -11 points. Lost 16 points since the jobs data was released.

CESV - Gapping up. Chinese small cap name that still has a lot of room to move in comparison to the other hot Chinese small caps that have had a run of late.

AMZN - Snap back play or short?

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/03/2006 09:08:00 AM 0 comments




Thursday, February 02, 2006Watch List

CKFR - Setting up for a test of support

GRMN - Bullish morning star pattern.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 10:48:00 PM 0 comments




Chinese Small Caps
Chinese small cap stocks are really hot right now. Here are few names that caught my eye. These could make for interesting shorts in the coming days/weeks.

CHNR

CAAS

CTDC

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 10:00:00 PM 2 comments




Nasdaq Technical Picture
The Nasdaq shed 29 points on moderately high volume (2.2 billion shares - just a touch less than yesterday so this is not a distribution day). The market gapped down on the open and fell sharply between 10:30 and 11:30. It found support at 2277-78 which marks the December high. However, the market was in the doldrums all afternoon and closed just a few points above its lows. After hours earnings by notable names were not compelling so unless tomorrow's jobs report is optimistic, we could be in for more of the same.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 05:53:00 PM 0 comments




Trade of the Day - BRCM
BRCM kept me busy all day. Very choppy but clean. All of my other trades were stopped out or scratched shortly after the market went deeply into the red.

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 04:11:00 PM 0 comments




In Play
Long BRCM - RS in a very weak market

[url=][/url]
Posted by Jamie at 2/02/2006 12:59:00 PM 0 comments




Newer Posts Older Posts Home