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发表于 2009-3-21 16:50
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March 15, 2008
Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 14, 2008
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Cat: | Time: 2:48 pm (utc+8) Comments (9)
Buried StearnsHere are some charts (long-term monthly and short-term five-minute) of Bear Stearns (BSC) and a news roundup:
Click to enlarge (Bear Stearns, Monthly Chart Since 1985)
Click to enlarge (Bear Stearns, Five-minute Chart)
Bear Stearns Shares Fall on Liquidity Speculation (March 10)
“Bear Stearns, the second-biggest underwriter of mortgage- backed bonds, said in a statement that ‘there is absolutely no truth to the rumors of liquidity problems.’ … ‘Bear Stearns’s balance sheet, liquidity and capital remain strong,’ Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz said in the company’s statement. Alan ‘Ace’ Greenberg, the former Bear Stearns chief executive officer and current board member, told CNBC that the liquidity rumors were ‘totally ridiculous.’
Options traders increased their bets today that Bear Stearns shares will continue to fall. Put-option volume rose to 158,599 contracts, seven times the 20-day average. Bearish bets outnumbered bullish ones, or calls, by about 2.6 to 1.
The price of today’s most-active contracts, which give the right to sell the stock at $30 before this month’s options expire at the end of next week, rose 13-fold to 65 cents. For those wagers to pay off, the shares must drop 52 percent in the next eight trading sessions.” [ed. And they did.]
Bear Stearns Gets Emergency Funds From JPMorgan, Fed
“Bear Stearns Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz said today that the 85-year-old company’s cash position had ’significantly deteriorated’ in the past 24 hours. [ed. That was quick.] … Bear Stearns first sold shares to the public in 1985.”
Fed Invokes Little-Used Authority to Aid Bear Stearns
“The loan to Bear Stearns required a vote today by the Fed’s Board of Governors because the company isn’t a bank … The central bank is taking on the credit risk from Bear Stearns collateral, lending the funds through JPMorgan Chase & Co. because it’s operationally simpler to accomplish than a direct loan.”
Bear Options Show Higher Odds Stock Headed to ‘Zero’
“The most-active options yesterday [March 13] were puts that give the right to sell the stock for $25 through March 20.”
Bear Stearns Has Credit Ratings Slashed After Bailout
“Standard & Poor’s lowered the securities firm’s long-term counterparty rating three levels to BBB.” [ed. As someone in the article says, their rating is irrelevant now.]
Bear Stearns May Not Resume Trading, Bernstein’s Hintz Says
“The problem is how do you re-start a trading operation? We really don’t have any examples of that being successful in the marketplace. Will you do that foreign exchange trade with Bear? Will you do that bond trade with Bear?”
Bear Stearns `Could Become Worthless,’ Meredith Whitney Says [ed. Not a helpful headline.]
…
I also thought this article was interesting; the phrase “creating the impression of losses” struck me:
Accounting Rule Jeopardizes Bear Stearns, Lehman, Whalen Says
“Why are people scared? Because they don’t know what the true value of assets are. They see the accountants forcing all these firms to write down their assets to zero, even though these things are still paying as contracted, they haven’t defaulted.
Rescind FAS 157 so if you have a real quoted price for an asset, fine, use it. Otherwise you allow companies to use historic cost. You had a transaction, you know what you paid for it, it’s a fact. All this other stuff is speculation. We are literally creating the impression of losses.
It shows you the law of unintended consequences. Everybody at FASB thought they were doing the right thing, ‘We’re going to make the world more transparent.’
It was really about making the world safe for structured finance. They thought fair value would help investors get comfortable with these over-the-counter, structured assets. When the liquidity dried up, we had exactly the opposite effect.”
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Cat: | Time: 11:20 am (utc+8) Comments (15)
March 14, 2008
It’s Not a Chart, It’s a “Decision-support Tool”Selected excerpts from IDC’s recently filed 10-K:
“Our Active Trader Services segment targets active traders, individual investors and investment community professionals. We consider investors who typically make their own investment decisions, trade frequently and may earn a substantial portion of their income from trading to be active traders. [ed. How about those who lose a substantial portion of their income to trading?]
In the Active Trader Services segment, we have one business, eSignal, which was supplemented by the March 2006 acquisition of the net assets of Quote.com and certain other related assets.
Our eSignal business provides active traders, individual investors and investment community professionals with real-time financial market information and access to decision-support tools to assist in their analysis of securities traded on all major markets worldwide. eSignal also operates financial websites that provide investors with free financial information and news about global equities, options, futures and other securities. This business accounted for $88.4 million, or 12.8%, of our revenue in 2007. [ed. So the “Active Trader” segment is just a tiny (though very profitable) part of their business.]
On March 6, 2006, we acquired the net assets of Quote.com and certain other related assets from Lycos, Inc. These assets are managed as part of the eSignal business and include subscription-based active trader services, QCharts and LiveCharts, and the financial websites, Quote.com and RagingBull.com. The aggregate cash consideration paid for the net assets was $30,000,000 and was funded from the operating cash of the Company. In addition, the Company accrued acquisition costs of $350,000, consisting primarily of legal and accounting services. In connection with the acquisition, we recorded $22,530,000 of goodwill, which has been allocated to our Active Trader segment. Of that total amount, tax deductible goodwill resulting from the Quote.com acquisition is $22,500,000. As of December 31, 2007, all acquisition costs accrued have been paid. [ed. 75% of the purchase price to goodwill, is that unusual?]
eSignal subscribers receive access to decision-support tools including historical databases, technical charting, customizable analytics, back testing, portfolio tracking and news and commentary. As of the end of 2007, this business had 63,539 direct subscription terminals. [ed. $88.4 million divided by 63,539 subscribers is $1,391 a year or $115 a month… sounds about right. Be interesting to know how much their websites contribute to the $88.4 million — probably not a heck of a lot.]
eSignal’s information is delivered via a sophisticated network infrastructure with an advanced Internet protocol multicast backbone and multiple, geographically dispersed computer server farms. eSignal services include its financial websites, subscription services aimed at active traders, its eSignal-branded workstation and related market data platforms, and trading education services. [ed. “Multicast backbone” sounds impressive anyway!]
Each of the core Active Trader Services offerings, including online advertising on our financial websites, is marketed by sales and product support specialists within eSignal. These offerings are supported by eSignal through the conventional promotional campaigns discussed above as well as through third-party developer relationships which market eSignal’s Internet-delivered services to their customers. eSignal also invites third-party software developers to write trading system software that is compatible with eSignal’s systems and asks trading educators to consider use of eSignal services in their seminars. In addition to direct sales, distribution channel partners have been an important source of new subscribers in recent years.
Within the Active Trader Services segment of our business, eSignal competes against numerous competitors including CQG, Inc., DTN Market Access, Inc., Thomson Financial, TradeStation, Lehman Brothers via its 2006 acquisition of Townsend Analytics [ed. RealTick], and others. [ed. I’ve always considered CQG higher end… and what is the Thomson Financial product they’re talking about? Anyone have a guess?]
We believe that our other competitive advantages with respect to our Active Trader services include ease of use, compatibility with third-party software packages, and price.
eSignal’s growth has been driven by a combination of the expansion of its direct subscriber base and increased online advertising. Expansion of the eSignal business is partly dependent on the growth in online trading accounts managed by active traders. In addition, stock market volatility is another important trend that can influence active trader subscriptions. When the major stock markets are less volatile, active traders tend to trade less frequently and cancellations of eSignal’s services by active traders typically increase and new subscriptions slow. Other factors that may affect eSignal’s growth include the contribution of its redistribution partners who resell its data and analytics, and online advertising on its financial websites. [ed. By “less volatile” they mean “not going up.”]
We believe that eSignal’s future growth is dependent on a combination of expanding its direct subscriber base for real-time financial market information and decision-support tools, and attracting increased online advertising on eSignal’s financial websites. To address the evolving needs of active traders worldwide, eSignal continues to invest in adding new features to its various services, establishing strategic alliances, developing new offerings, and building traffic to and advertising on its financial websites.
Within the Active Trader Services segment, revenue grew by $6,376,000, or 7.8%, to $88,363,000 in 2007. Foreign exchange had a favorable impact on revenue of $590,000 in 2007. The Quote.com business, which was acquired in March 2006, contributed incremental revenue of $2,372,000 in 2007. [ed. So they paid $30,000,000 in cash for something that is contributing $2,372,000 in annual revenue — does that make sense? How does the “tax deductible goodwill” figure in here?] The increase in revenue within the Active Trader Services segment also reflects the deferral of revenue in the second quarter of 2006 associated with sales of software in multiple element arrangements which were subsequently recognized ratably over the term of the associated customer contracts. This is coupled with a higher number of core eSignal direct subscription terminals, which grew 2.9% to 63,539 in 2007, and higher average net subscription fees.” [ed. Be nice to see a ten year history of both their “direct subscription terminal” and “average net subscription fee” numbers.]
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Cat: | Time: 11:36 am (utc+8) Comments (9)
March 13, 2008
Highbrow PulpIt’s been ages since I’ve watched a movie, but I did recently see No Country for Old Men and really enjoyed it. (I hadn’t even heard of it until it won the Oscar for Best Movie.) It may even be better than Blood Simple, which I thought was brilliant.
From the Sight & Sound review:
“Anton Chigurh - a sociopathic [sic. psychopathic] hitman hired by the drug cartel to hunt down the cash - fits satisfyingly into the Coens’ ongoing interrogation of American manhood, which they present as always problematic and often absurd, gleefully suggesting here that its most successful incarnation might be a serial killer. Patient, implacable and ultra-capable, Chigurh is also alien, even supernatural in his presumptive superiority. The model of consummate self-sufficiency, he seems to lampoon the frontier ethos of the Reaganite Cowboy Man: to Chigurh humans are a form of livestock, occasionally diverting but ultimately disposable; his favoured method of execution is a hydraulic cattle-gun. Plainly though non-specifically foreign, he takes a Martian’s-eye view of American life.”
One of my favorite things about the Coens is their attention to language and love of regional dialects … “I’m fixin’ to do somethin’ dumber ‘n’ hell, but I’m goin’ anyways,” “You don’t want to lie with-out what it’s absolutely necessary,” etc. I recommend you see it, assuming you’re a guy — this is not a movie to take a date to.
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Cat: | Time: 5:39 pm (utc+8) Comments (25)
Gold and Crude in Dollars, Euros, and YuanDollar Trades at Record Low Versus Euro as Fed Plan Disappoints
“Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that ‘we are not convinced that yesterday’s move will solve all the multiple challenges facing credit markets and the financial system.’”
Everyone knows that Gentle Ben’s bank bailout / reflation plan is murder on the dollar. I thought it would be fun (eye-opening?) to post the charts of crude oil and gold, denominated in dollars, euros, and yuan, so here they are:
Click to enlarge (US Dollar Index)
Click to enlarge (Crude Oil, Dollar-denominated)
Click to enlarge (Gold, Dollar-denominated)
Click to enlarge (Crude Oil, Euro-denominated)
Click to enlarge (Gold, Euro-denominated)
Click to enlarge (Crude Oil, Yuan-denominated)
Click to enlarge (Gold, Yuan-denominated)
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Cat: | Time: 10:07 am (utc+8) Comments (16)
March 12, 2008
Fostering the Functioning of Financial MarketsFRB Press Release, March 11, 2008
“The Federal Reserve announced today an expansion of its securities lending program. Under this new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), the Federal Reserve will lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities to primary dealers secured for a term of 28 days (rather than overnight, as in the existing program) by a pledge of other securities, including federal agency debt, federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS. The TSLF is intended to promote liquidity in the financing markets for Treasury and other collateral and thus to foster the functioning of financial markets more generally.”
I fear they may ultimately fail to foster the functioning. :)
Click to enlarge (SP futures, Daily chart)
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Cat: | Time: 9:45 am (utc+8) Comments (3)
March 11, 2008
CMBS BBB- Spread: Now Over 1500 Basis PointsI’ve decided to update this chart only for every 5% jump in the spread (this is a kind of sick joke). What can you say about the state of the market? Store plenty of canned food, bottled fruit, candles, batteries, shotgun shells, and don’t forget the crackers.
Click to enlarge (CMBS BBB- Spread over the 10-year Treasury)
All posts which mention CMBS
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Cat: | Time: 6:13 pm (utc+8) Comments (6)
Exxon Short Working Well as Crude Hits All-time HighsChecking in on Exxon, a short idea during those long-ago days of freebies. Back in late February the trend in XOM was “mixed,” which is my way of saying I can’t tell if it’s up or down, but “mixed” ideas are still worth paying attention to. Also, the set-up had such tight initial risk (just over 1%) that it was definitely worth a play.
There are two ways of thinking about how to trail the stop. The ABC Stop Method trails the stop above *down* bars in a short trade (in the chart below, down bars are marked in red, up bars in green, inside bars in blue, and outside bars in black). The “Plan B” method of trailing the stop is to sit at breakeven until the Target Zone is reached, which is quite a ways down yet in XOM, and then start trailing the stop. I have to go back and re-test all my “with the trend” trades to see which exit method is superior.
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Cat: | Time: 8:24 am (utc+8) Comments (14)
March 10, 2008
Shopping Around the PeripheryDon’t Eat Anything That Doesn’t Rot, an interview with Michael Pollan
Liked this bit a lot:
“One rule that I found really helpful is to shop only around the periphery of the supermarket. If you look at the layout of the average supermarket, the fresh whole foods are always on the edge. So you get produce and meat and fish and dairy products. And those are the foods that, you know, your grandmother would recognize as foods. They haven’t changed that much. All the processed foods, the really bad stuff that is going to get you in trouble with all the refined grain and the additives and the high-fructose corn syrup, those are all in the middle. And so, if you stay out of the middle and get most of your food on the edges, you’re going to do a lot better.”
I note that my precious Claussen pickles can be found only on the periphery.
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Cat: | Time: 12:10 pm (utc+8) Comments (6)
March 8, 2008
Gratuitous Cute Chick Pic — March 7, 2008
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Cat: | Time: 5:36 pm (utc+8) Comments (10)
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