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- 2006-7-3
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发表于 2009-3-21 17:36
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Stock Du Jour (TWM) & Random ObservationsA more even start to the day then things went negative at around 11 AM and the selling was pretty bad, the close very weak.
Notable New Lows: Warner Music (WMG), Travelzoo (TZOO), Stamps.com (STMP), Realnetworks (RNWK), Six Flags (SIX), Cnet (CNET), Allstate (ALL), Qlogic (QLGC), and several Pharmas: Sepracor (SEPR), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Mylan Labs (MYL), and Forest Labs (FRX).
Notable New Highs: LDK Solar (LDK), Deckers (DECK), ArthroCare (ARTC), and Crocs (CROX).
I’ll feature the weekly chart of the UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM), which like all the UltraShort ETFs had a very good week.
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Cat: | Time: 8:51 am (utc+8) Comments (2)
July 27, 2007
TGIF (II)
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Cat: | Time: 9:38 pm (utc+8) Comments (5)
Stock Du Jour (SDS) & Random ObservationsSelling from the get-go and it was dramatic enough that my data is screwed up … the only comparably bad day this year I believe was on February 27.
Notable New Lows: Lots of REITs, Bancorps, and Homebuilders as usual … Krispy Kreme (KKD), TradeStation (TRAD), Alaska Air (ALK), Fortress (FIG), UTStarcom (UTSI), Foot Locker (FL), Office Depot (ODP) and OfficeMax (OMX), Tenet (THC), and E*Trade (ETFC).
(I’ll try to sit down this weekend and write a short thing making the case for some stocks to buy here … sentiment is a bit panicky and I see some deeply undervalued stocks out there.)
Notable New Highs: Slim pickings: Apple (AAPL), Crocs (CROX), F5 (FFIV), and Owens Illinois (OI).
I’ll feature a weekly chart of the UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) … note the spike up back during February’s rout.
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Cat: | Time: 8:21 am (utc+8) Comments (6)
July 26, 2007
Continued Indefinite RiseShanghai Property Back in Vogue, by Denis McMahon
Chuckled when I read this bit:
The Shanghai branch of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said foreigners and nonlocal Chinese accounted for 34.4% of all residential-loan recipients in the city in June, up from 24.7% in December.
In July 2006, the government introduced rules stipulating foreign individuals could buy residential property only for their own use and only after they had lived in China for one year. Those rules were aimed at preventing foreigners from buying multiple properties for rental or resale.
Given limitations on foreigners buying Chinese stocks and bonds, real estate has been one of the few yuan-denominated assets in which foreigners can speculate on the Chinese currency.
“Even though some of the properties may end up with low rental yields, that’s fine as long as investors sustain the daily cost of the property,” like management fees and mortgage servicing, Mr. Eric Lee of Savills Property Services said.
“Hold the property for five years and between yuan appreciation, rent and asset appreciation, you could have an almost guaranteed return of 8% or 9%” a year, he said.
Whenever I hear the words “an almost guaranteed return of…” I put one hand on my wallet and begin to sprint.
Hold the property for five years and among yuan depreciation (due to social chaos), constant vacancy and asset depreciation (due to disrepair and paying a stupid price in the first place), you could have an almost guaranteed loss of 8% or 9% a year.
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Cat: | Time: 3:37 pm (utc+8) Comments (3)
Stock Du Jour (AAPL again) & Random ObservationsTricky choppy nowhere day — an excellent time to stand aside or lose a little.
Notable New Lows: Lots of REITs, Jamba (JMBA), Fortress (FIG), UTStarcom (UTSI), Panera Bread (PNRA), Borders (BGP), and E*Trade (ETFC).
Notable New Highs: Biogen (BIIB), TheStreet.com (TSCM), IBM (IBM), Boeing (BA), Juniper (JNPR), and Amazon (AMZN).
Apple reported earnings and jumped after hours to a new all-time high.
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Cat: | Time: 8:27 am (utc+8) Comments (0)
July 25, 2007
Checking on the Doomed DollarThe US Dollar Index recently took out the monthly swing low from 2004 that everyone had his eyes on. Back in September 1992 the Dollar Index went as low as 78.19 (intramonth) … below that level is truly no man’s land. I’ve said it a thousand times and I’ll say it again: Maintain your USD short positions.
Related:
US Dollar Index - Bearish Any Way You Look At It
Slip Sliding Away
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Cat: | Time: 8:43 am (utc+8) Comments (21)
Stock Du Jour (CFC) & Random ObservationsSelling from the get-go that accelerated fairly dramatically in the afternoon. Action reminds me of June 7 and to a lesser extent May 24.
Notable New Lows: Huge number of things to choose from led by Countrywide Financial (CFC) … Homebuilders, dozens of “Bancorps,” UTStarcom (UTSI) — now under $4; Netflix (NFLX). There have to “deep value” investors interested in many of the Regional Banks that have fallen by half over the last year — maybe I’m just not anticipating dramatic enough earnings disappointments?
Notable New Highs: An extremely short list to choose from — Biogen (BIIB), Checkpoint Software (CHKP), Third Wave (TWTI), and the UltraShort Real Estate ETF (SRS) (first featured on June 21).
I’ll feature a monthly chart from Countrywide Financial (CFC), which was today’s mover and shaker.
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Cat: | Time: 7:46 am (utc+8) Comments (3)
July 24, 2007
Nasty and Getting NastierHere’s an excerpt from a column written by Eric Savitz in the October 14, 2002 issue of Barron’s. Anyone who is interested in studying market sentiment should go back and read Barron’s (or any mainstream financial publication) at major turning points. (This is part of my Remembering the Bottom of the Bear Market series of posts.)
Have you opened your third-quarter statements yet? Well, I’ve opened mine, and as Warren Zevon said, it ain’t that pretty at all. Makes me want to hurl myself against the wall. Makes me wonder why I didn’t sell three years ago. More importantly, it makes me wonder if I ought to sell now.
It’s the possibility that people like me might answer in the affirmative that has Jim Bianco worried. Bianco, proprietor of Chicago-based Bianco Research, observes that investors in equity mutual funds, measured since the bottom of the last bear market in 1990, have now had their collective profits completely eroded away. In other words, if you consider all the money that’s been invested in stock funds over the last 12 years, the combined return now amounts to a big fat goose egg. The same return available from a nice, comfy mattress.
The result, Bianco says, is that individual investors now face their “most important decision since the bear market began” in March 2000. “Do they sell and ‘cut their losses’,” he asks, “or continue to hold and ‘believe’ in the market?”
Bianco points out that for the last two months, equity funds have had outflows on a rolling 12-month basis for the first time since 1989. “The mutual-fund flow data suggests that investors are only now acting as if the profits from the 1990s bull market have been wiped out,” he wrote in a report last week.
If stock prices don’t bottom soon, Bianco warns, the risks will only increase. “If stocks continue to decline, it isn’t just ‘more of the same,’ as the public will have to decide if they believe in the stock market enough to take these losses. As history has shown, the public sells when their break-even point is reached.”
That, of course, would be unfortunate for the beleaguered equity markets. “I really think this is nasty and getting nastier as we speak,” Bianco said in an interview. “The financial markets are worried that something big is brewing out there,” citing in particular fears of a liquidity crisis involving a large bank with significant derivatives exposure, like J.P. Morgan Chase or Commerzbank.
The market’s best hope, he says, is for stocks to make a definitive bottom in October. “The situation is getting extreme — and part of that is the public is now out of profits. And historically, this is when they hit the sell button.”
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Cat: | Time: 11:16 am (utc+8) Comments (11)
Stock Du Jour (VWO) & Random ObservationsSo-so positive morning, a burst of selling before 2 PM, recovery but then a sell-off into the close.
Notable New Lows: Every homebuilder out there: MTH, RYL, HOV, BZH, KBH, PHM, LEN, DHI, CHCI; maybe 50 “Bancorps” including Wachovia (WB), lots of REITs — do you see a theme here? ;-) And Netflix (NFLX).
Notable New Highs: Lots of Oil Services (OIH, HAL, RIG, NE, DO, etc.), Emerging Markets (EEM, VWO), China (GXC, CAF, FXI), Cisco (CSCO), and Navteq (NVT).
I’ll feature a weekly chart of the Vanguard Emerging Market ETF (VWO) since its debut in March 2005.
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Cat: | Time: 7:36 am (utc+8) Comments (3)
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